Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Fiscal volatility and higher taxes

Le budget 2026 est adopté via 49.3, dans un contexte de majorité introuvable. Déficit visé à 5% du PIB, dette projetée à 118,2% et surtaxe sur grandes entreprises (7,3 Md€) augmentent le risque de changements fiscaux rapides.

BEG subsidies and budget risk

Federal BEG/BAFA support is critical to Wärmewende economics, but annual budget ceilings and frequent program adjustments create stop‑start ordering behavior. International suppliers face higher payment-cycle uncertainty, while investors must model demand cliffs, compliance documentation, and administrative throughput constraints.

Reconstruction-driven infrastructure demand

Three years after the 2023 quakes, authorities report 455,000 housing/commercial units delivered, while multilateral lenders like EBRD invested €2.7bn in 2025, including wastewater and sewage projects. Construction, materials, logistics and engineering opportunities remain, with execution and procurement risks.

استقرار النقد والتضخم والسياسة النقدية

الاحتياطيات سجلت نحو 52.59 مليار دولار بنهاية يناير 2026، مع تباطؤ التضخم إلى قرابة 10–12% واتجاه البنك المركزي لخفض الفائدة 100 نقطة أساس. تحسن الاستقرار يدعم الاستيراد والتمويل، لكن التضخم الشهري المتذبذب يبقي مخاطر التسعير والأجور مرتفعة.

Won volatility and FX backstops

Authorities issued $3bn in FX stabilization bonds as reserves fell to about $425.9bn and equity outflows pressured KRW. Elevated USD/KRW volatility affects import costs, hedging budgets, and repatriation strategies, especially for commodity buyers and dollar-funded projects.

District heating investment surge

City utilities are accelerating Wärmenetze expansion and modernization, including low‑temperature networks and large heat pumps. This drives major capex opportunities for foreign EPCs, pipe and insulation suppliers, and control-system vendors, but also heightens exposure to permitting delays and municipal procurement rules.

Rare earth magnets domestic push

A ₹7,280 crore scheme targets indigenous rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturing and “mineral corridors,” addressing heavy import reliance and China-linked supply risk. Beneficiaries include EVs, wind, defence and electronics; investors should watch permitting, feedstock security, and offtake structures.

Semiconductor reshoring with conditional relief

New chip policy links tariff relief to US-based capacity buildout, using leading foundries’ domestic investment as leverage. For global manufacturers and hyperscalers, this reshapes procurement and pricing, favors suppliers with US footprints, and increases strategic pressure on Taiwan-centric sourcing models.

Persistent Supply Chain Disruptions

UK supply chains face ongoing disruptions from geopolitical shocks, logistics bottlenecks, and rising shipping costs. These challenges increase operational risks and require businesses to enhance resilience and diversify sourcing strategies.

Currency Shift Reduces Dollar Exposure

Russia now conducts nearly all trade with China and India in national currencies, minimizing reliance on the dollar and euro. This currency shift alters payment risk profiles, complicates cross-border transactions for global firms, and signals a long-term pivot away from Western financial systems.

Fiscal consolidation and tax uncertainty

France’s 2026 budget targets a ~5% of GDP deficit and debt around 118% of GDP, relying on higher levies on large corporates and restrained spending. Political fragmentation and 49.3 use heighten policy volatility for investors, pricing, and hiring.

Investment screening and security controls

National-security policy is increasingly embedded in commerce through CFIUS-style scrutiny, export controls, and sectoral investigations (chips, critical minerals). Cross-border M&A, greenfield projects, and technology partnerships face longer timelines, higher disclosure burdens, and deal-structure constraints to mitigate control risks.

Nuclear expansion and export-linked cooperation

Seoul is restarting new reactors (two 1.4GW units plus a 700MW SMR) while pursuing expanded US civil nuclear rights and fuel-cycle cooperation. This reshapes electricity price expectations, industrial siting, and opportunities for EPC, components, and uranium services.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

Reforma tributária do IVA dual

A transição do IBS/CBS avança com a instalação do Comitê Gestor do IBS e regulamentação infralegal pendente; implementação plena ocorrerá gradualmente até 2033. Empresas devem preparar sistemas fiscais, precificação e créditos, além de mapear efeitos setoriais e contencioso.

Durcissement sanctions UE Russie

L’UE prépare un 20e paquet de sanctions: interdiction de services maritimes pour pétrole russe, ajout de navires “shadow fleet”, restrictions bancaires et crypto, nouvelles interdictions d’import/export. Impacts: due diligence, shipping/assurance, énergie, chaînes matières.

Port and logistics labor fragility

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to labor negotiations and operational constraints at major ports and logistics nodes. Even localized disruptions can ripple into inventory shortages, demurrage costs, and missed delivery windows, pushing firms toward diversification, buffering, and nearshore warehousing.

الخصخصة وإعادة هيكلة الشركات الحكومية

تسريع برنامج تقليص دور الدولة عبر إعداد 60 شركة: نقل 40 لصندوق مصر السيادي وتجهيز 20 للقيد/الطرح في البورصة، مع إنشاء منصب نائب رئيس وزراء للشؤون الاقتصادية. ذلك يخلق فرص استحواذ وشراكات، لكنه يتطلب وضوحاً في الحوكمة والتقييمات وحقوق المستثمرين.

Transshipment and origin enforcement risk

Growing US scrutiny of origin fraud and transshipment is pushing Vietnam to tighten customs controls, creating higher audit, documentation, and supplier-traceability burdens for manufacturers. Sectors vulnerable to tariffs (e.g., solar components) face elevated trade-remedy exposure.

Red Sea routing volatility persists

Carrier reversals on Suez/Red Sea transits underscore persistent maritime insecurity and schedule unreliability. For U.S. importers and exporters, this implies longer lead times, higher inventory buffers, potential demurrage/warehousing costs, and fluctuating ocean capacity and rates.

Workforce constraints and labour standards

Tight labour markets, wage pressures, and scrutiny of recruitment and labour practices increase compliance and cost risks. Manufacturers and infrastructure developers may face higher ESG due diligence expectations, contractor oversight needs, and potential reputational exposure in supply chains.

Escalating sanctions and enforcement

The EU’s proposed 20th package broadens energy, banking and trade controls, including ~€900m of additional bans and 20 more regional banks. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions exposure, stricter compliance screening, and greater uncertainty around counterparties and contract enforceability.

Critical Minerals And Semiconductor Supply Chains

Vietnam is deepening partnerships with the EU and other global actors to develop its rare earths, tungsten, and semiconductor sectors. These efforts aim to diversify supply chains, reduce dependence on China, and position Vietnam as a key node in global technology manufacturing.

Energy sourcing and sanctions exposure

Trade diplomacy increasingly intersects with energy decisions, with US tariff relief linked to expectations on reducing Russian oil purchases and boosting US energy imports. Companies should plan for price volatility, sanctions and reputational risk, and potential knock-on effects on shipping insurance and payments.

Fiscal tightening and tax risk

War-related spending pressures and a higher deficit underpin expectations of fiscal consolidation. IMF recommendations include raising VAT and minimum income tax rates and cutting exemptions, implying higher operating costs, price pass-through challenges, and possible shifts in incentives for investment and hiring.

Labor reclassification and cost risk

A labor-law package aims to extend protections to roughly 5.7–8.6 million freelancers and platform workers via “presumed worker status,” shifting proof burdens to employers. Businesses may face higher labor costs, disputes, and operational redesign toward automation and subcontracting changes.

Trade Diversification Amid US Tariffs

Facing 50% US tariffs, India has accelerated trade agreements with the EU, UK, Oman, and New Zealand. This strategic pivot reduces dependence on the US, hedges against protectionism, and opens new markets for labor-intensive and technology-driven exports.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

Reconfiguración automotriz y China

Cierres y reestructuraciones abren espacio a fabricantes chinos. BYD y Geely buscan comprar la planta Nissan‑Mercedes (230.000 unidades/año) mientras México intenta aplazar inversiones chinas para no tensionar negociaciones con EE. UU.; impactos en cadenas regionales y compliance de origen.

Environmental licensing and ESG exposure

Congressional disputes over environmental licensing reforms and tighter deforestation scrutiny are increasing permitting uncertainty for infrastructure, mining and agribusiness. Exporters face rising compliance demands—especially linked to deforestation-free requirements—raising audit, traceability and contract-risk costs across supply chains.

Export target amid protectionism

Vietnam is targeting US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16% vs 2025’s record US$475bn), but faces rising protectionism, stricter standards, and dependence on foreign-invested manufacturing and imported inputs—raising compliance, sourcing, and margin risks for exporters.

Balochistan militancy and corridor security

Repeated attacks in Balochistan target transport links and state assets, raising security costs for CPEC, mining and logistics around Gwadar. Heightened risk threatens project timelines, insurance premiums and staff safety, complicating due diligence for greenfield investment.

Reforma laboral: semana de 40 horas

Avanza la reforma constitucional para reducir la jornada a 40 horas (implementación gradual 2026‑2030), sin bajar salarios y con cambios en horas extra y registro electrónico. Implica presión de costos, rediseño de turnos y productividad en manufactura, logística y servicios.

Trade gap and dollar-driven imbalances

A widening US trade deficit—near $1 trillion annually in recent data—reflects strong import demand and softer exports. Persistent imbalances amplify political pressure for protectionism, invite sectoral tariffs, and increase FX sensitivity for exporters, reshoring economics, and pricing strategies.

Digitalization and Regulatory Streamlining Initiatives

The launch of an electronic licensing platform offering 460 services from 41 government entities marks a major step in improving Egypt’s business environment. Faster, more transparent licensing supports ease of doing business and facilitates foreign investment and business expansion.