Steel Trade Protectionism Intensifies

From July, the EU will cut duty-free steel quotas by 47% and raise tariff barriers, putting UK exports at risk. With the EU taking 1.8 million tonnes of UK steel annually, manufacturers face margin pressure, rerouting risks and urgent need for quota arrangements.

Yen Weakness and BOJ Tightening

The yen has hovered near ¥160 per dollar, raising imported input and energy costs. With policy rates already at 0.75% and markets pricing further tightening, companies face higher financing costs, pricing volatility and tougher hedging decisions.

Agriculture And Land Constraints

Agribusiness remains export-critical but operates under mined land, energy shortages and logistics pressure. Roughly 137,000 square kilometers remain mined, while producers face higher processing and transport costs, even as planting stays near 16.6 million hectares and seed exports recover.

Hormuz Chokepoint Shipping Disruption

Iran’s tightened control of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic from roughly 135 vessels daily to about six, driving war-risk premiums as high as 10% of vessel value and severely disrupting energy, container, and industrial supply chains.

Tourism and services investment

Tourism remains a major diversification channel, with total committed sector investment reaching SAR452 billion and private capital contributing SAR219 billion. The sector recorded 122 million tourists in 2025, creating opportunities in hospitality, retail, aviation, logistics, and consumer services.

State Revenue and Fiscal Pressure

Oil and gas still generate roughly a quarter of Russian budget proceeds, while the January-March 2026 fiscal deficit reached 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of GDP. Revenue swings increase tax, subsidy, and regulatory unpredictability, complicating market planning, investment timing, and sovereign risk assessment.

Carbon Border Levy Frictions

France is pressing Brussels to pause the EU carbon border levy on imported fertilisers, but the Commission has resisted. The dispute highlights rising compliance costs for carbon-intensive sectors and uncertainty for agrifood, chemicals, steel, and import-dependent supply chains.

Mining Policy Certainty Still Fragile

South Africa wants to revive exploration and critical-minerals investment, but investors still seek stronger tenure security, faster cadastral rollout and clearer legislation. The country attracted only 1% of global exploration spending in 2023, highlighting opportunity alongside meaningful regulatory and execution risk.

Downstream Tax Policy Uncertainty

The government has delayed a proposed windfall tax and is still studying export duties on processed nickel products such as NPI. This creates uncertainty over project economics, future margins and capital allocation for miners, refiners and EV-linked industrial investors.

Fiscal Constraints Limit Support

Belgium’s weak public finances are narrowing room for broad business or household relief. Officials favour temporary, targeted measures, while economists warn the energy shock could cost the state billions overall, raising uncertainty around future subsidies, taxation, and demand conditions.

US-Taiwan Trade And Strategic Alignment

The new US-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade would cut tariffs on up to 99% of goods while tightening export-control alignment. It should deepen bilateral investment and market access, but increases compliance burdens and constrains sensitive commercial engagement with China.

US Trade Realignment Momentum

The United States has become Taiwan’s largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years. First-quarter exports reached US$195.74 billion, up 51.1%, with 33.5% shipped to the US, reinforcing diversification from China but increasing exposure to US policy shifts.

Trade Remedies Reshape Inputs

Vietnam is tightening trade defenses, including temporary anti-circumvention measures on Chinese hot-rolled steel that extend a 27.83% duty to wider product categories. This raises input-cost and sourcing implications for manufacturers using steel, while signaling tougher enforcement across import-sensitive industrial sectors.

Onshoring Incentives Accelerate Investment

Drugmakers can secure 0% tariffs by combining most-favored-nation pricing deals with U.S. manufacturing commitments, while partial onshoring faces 20% tariffs rising over four years. This strongly redirects capital expenditure, site selection, contract manufacturing, and cross-border production footprints toward the United States.

Extreme Energy Flow Disruption

Hormuz disruption has sharply curtailed rival Gulf exports while Iran’s own shipments continue, largely to China. Reports show Iraqi exports down more than 80 percent, Saudi flows materially lower, and Brent up about 60 percent, creating major sourcing, hedging, and margin risks.

Monetary Tightening and Lira Stability

Turkey’s disinflation drive remains central to business planning, with March inflation at 30.9%, policy funding near 40%, and heavy FX intervention. Borrowing costs, pricing, hedging, and repatriation strategies remain highly sensitive to reserve trends and exchange-rate management.

Export infrastructure bottlenecks intensify

A breakdown at CN’s 57-year-old Second Narrows bridge exposed major logistics vulnerabilities at the Port of Vancouver, which handles 170.4 million tonnes annually and about $1 billion in daily trade. Aging rail-port infrastructure threatens energy, grain, potash, and bulk export reliability.

Apertura energética bajo presión

El sector energético será un punto crítico del T-MEC. Estados Unidos exige menos ventajas regulatorias para Pemex y CFE, más importación de combustibles y mayor generación privada. El resultado afectará costos eléctricos, oferta industrial, inversión extranjera y certidumbre regulatoria sectorial.

High Rates Mask Financial Fragility

Although the central bank has cut rates to 15%, financing conditions remain restrictive and uneven. More than 60% of Russian banks reportedly saw profit declines or losses in February, while problem corporate debt rose to 11%, tightening credit availability for businesses.

Mining Compliance and Liability Risk

Mining regulation remains a material operational issue, especially in Minas Gerais, where 21 tailings dams are embargoed for missing or uncertified stability declarations. Reopened Brumadinho-related legal proceedings and tighter oversight increase permitting, ESG, insurance, and reputational risks for investors and suppliers.

US Tariff Exposure Escalates

Vietnam’s export model faces sharper US trade risk as new Section 122 surcharges impose a temporary 10% duty and Section 301 probes target overcapacity and labor enforcement, threatening country-specific tariffs, margin compression, compliance costs, and supply-chain redesign for exporters.

Immigration Constraints on Talent

Tighter legal immigration rules, including a $100,000 H-1B application fee, are reducing high-skilled talent inflows. Multinationals may face higher labor costs, slower hiring, and relocation of talent pipelines toward Canada, Australia, and other markets with more predictable visa regimes.

Regulatory and Data Compliance Tightens

Foreign firms face a persistently demanding operating environment shaped by market-access frictions, regulatory scrutiny and data-security controls. Even without dramatic new crackdowns, rising compliance burdens, licensing uncertainty and policy opacity are increasing operational risk, especially in technology, consulting, industrial and cross-border data activities.

Regulatory Reputation Tightening Maritime

Vanuatu removed three vessels from its registry after illegal fishing penalties and imposed stricter compliance measures, including ownership disclosure and 24-hour incident reporting. Although unrelated to cruising directly, stronger maritime governance may improve counterparty confidence, but increase compliance expectations across shipping activities.

Mining Policy and Exploration Gap

Mining remains central to exports and foreign investment, yet weak exploration threatens future supply. South Africa captured only 1% of global exploration spending in 2023, with investors still focused on cadastre delays, tenure security and mining law reform.

Energy Tax and Regulation Debate

Debate over a proposed 25% LNG windfall tax highlights policy risk in Australia’s resources sector. Industry warns effective tax burdens could rise toward 80-90% for some firms, potentially deterring capital, affecting partner confidence and delaying upstream energy investment decisions.

Gaza Ceasefire Fragility Persists

The Gaza ceasefire remains unstable, with more than 700 Palestinians reportedly killed since October and repeated implementation disputes over withdrawals, crossings, and disarmament. Businesses face elevated operational uncertainty from renewed escalation risks, humanitarian restrictions, and shifting border-access conditions.

Oil Boom Lifts External Accounts

Oil exports to China nearly doubled to US$7.19 billion in Q1, supported by Middle East disruption and pre-salt output. Higher crude revenues strengthen Brazil’s trade balance and FX inflows, but deepen commodity reliance and expose planning to geopolitical price swings.

Customs and Regulatory Frictions

New customs rules in force since January 2026 reportedly increase broker liability, documentation burdens, sanctions and seizure powers, while health approvals still face delays of up to two years. These frictions raise border compliance costs, slow product launches and complicate inventory planning.

Transport PPP and privatization drive

Saudi Arabia is accelerating private capital mobilization through PPPs and privatization, with 89 firms seeking prequalification for the Qassim airport project. The broader strategy targets $64 billion in private investment by 2030, creating opportunities in aviation, logistics, construction, and infrastructure services.

North American supply-chain compliance squeeze

Canadian exporters have sharply raised CUSMA compliance to avoid tariffs, with declared preferential treatment rising from 35.5% in December 2024 to 78.7% by July 2025. While protective short term, stricter rules of origin would increase auditing, sourcing and financing burdens.

Supply Chain Regionalization Accelerates

Companies are accelerating China-plus-one and regional diversification as US trade barriers, geopolitical friction, and compliance risks intensify. Deficits surged with alternative suppliers including Taiwan at $21.1 billion and Mexico at $16.8 billion in February, reinforcing nearshoring, dual sourcing, and inventory redesign.

African Market Integration Finance

South Africa is deepening its role in African trade integration through AfCFTA and new Afreximbank support. A headline $11 billion package for energy, infrastructure, mineral processing and SMEs could improve regional value chains, export finance and cross-border investment capacity.

Logistics bottlenecks shape trade

Strong Atlantic logistics contrast with persistent congestion, Pacific port weaknesses and inland transport constraints. Businesses face higher lead-time uncertainty, while new investments such as Yobel’s 13,800 m² Coyol hub and digital trade-corridor initiatives can gradually improve distribution efficiency.

China Access Expands Export Optionality

Zero-tariff access to China from 1 May under the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement opens a vast new market and may attract manufacturing investment. However, firms still face compliance, distribution and logistics hurdles before tariff relief translates into scalable commercial gains.

Reconstruction capital mobilization

Ukraine’s reconstruction pipeline is expanding, but execution depends on blended finance, guarantees and political-risk insurance. The World Bank says needs are about $524 billion, with roughly one-third expected from private capital, creating major opportunities in energy, logistics, transport and industrial assets.