Escalating Sanctions Disrupt Trade Flows

Intensified US and EU sanctions, including on shipping, oil, and digital assets, severely restrict Iran’s access to global markets. These measures complicate cross-border transactions, increase compliance risks, and force businesses to navigate opaque networks, raising operational and reputational risks.

Supply Chain and Border Management Uncertainty

The reopening of the Rafah border crossing and ongoing controls highlight persistent uncertainty in supply chain logistics. Restrictions on goods and movement, coupled with complex oversight, continue to challenge humanitarian aid, trade, and operational planning for international businesses.

Strategic Role in European Value Chains

Turkey is deeply embedded in EU value chains, especially in automotive, machinery, textiles, and electronics. Its manufacturing and logistics capacity, combined with energy corridor status, make it a strategic partner for Europe’s competitiveness and supply chain resilience.

Energy security and LNG contracting

Shrinking domestic gas output and delayed petroleum-law amendments increase reliance on LNG; gas supplies roughly 60% of power generation. PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking long-term LNG deals (15-year contracts, 0.8–1.0 mtpa). Electricity-price volatility and industrial costs remain key.

Persistent Energy Infrastructure Attacks

Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid have caused widespread blackouts and threaten business continuity. Nearly 60% of Kyiv was recently without power, with similar conditions nationwide. Energy insecurity remains a top risk, impacting manufacturing, logistics, and foreign investment confidence.

Labor Market Tightness and Immigration Policy

US manufacturing and tech sectors face acute labor shortages, with 600,000 vacancies in 2025. Immigration reforms for skilled workers are under discussion, but persistent tightness may drive up labor costs and disrupt expansion plans for global investors.

Energy security and transition buildout

Vietnam is revising national energy planning and PDP8 assumptions to support 10%+ growth, targeting 120–130m toe final energy demand by 2030 and renewables at 25–30% of primary energy. Grid, LNG, and clean-energy hubs shape site selection and costs.

Energy transition meets grid constraints

Renewables are growing rapidly, yet Brazil curtailed roughly 20% of wind/solar output in 2025 with estimated losses around BRL 6.5bn, reflecting grid bottlenecks. Investors must factor transmission availability, curtailment clauses and regulatory responses into projects and PPAs.

Diversification of Trade Partnerships

With strained US and EU relations, South Africa is strengthening ties with the UAE, China, and other Asian markets. This diversification supports investment in renewable energy, AI, and manufacturing, but also exposes the country to new geopolitical and compliance risks.

Energy transition, nuclear restart optionality

Japan’s decarbonisation path remains hybrid: renewables growth alongside potential nuclear restarts and new flexibility markets. This uncertainty affects long-term power pricing, siting of energy-intensive assets, and PPAs; it also shapes LNG demand forecasts and contract flexibility requirements for utilities and traders.

AB FTA’larının asimetrik etkisi

AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle yaptığı STA’lar, Türkiye’nin Gümrük Birliği nedeniyle tarifeleri uyarlamasına rağmen karşı pazara aynı ayrıcalıkla erişememesi sorununu büyütüyor. Örneğin AB‑Hindistan STA’sı Türkiye lehine işlemiyor; rekabet baskısı ve pazar payı riski yaratıyor.

Foreign real estate ownership liberalization

New rules enabling foreign ownership of land (with limits in Makkah/Madinah) are lifting international demand for Saudi property and mixed-use developments. This improves investment entry options and collateralization, but requires careful title, zoning, and regulatory due diligence.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring

New U.S. tariffs on advanced AI semiconductors, alongside incentives for domestic fabrication, are reshaping electronics supply chains. Foreign suppliers may face higher landed costs, while OEMs must plan dual-sourcing, redesign bills of materials, and adjust product roadmaps amid policy uncertainty.

Energy roadmap uncertainty easing

La Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) 2035, retardée plus de deux ans, doit paraître par décret. Elle confirme 6 EPR (8 en option) et investissements éolien offshore, solaire, géothermie; l’incertitude passée a freiné appels d’offres.

FX liquidity and import compression

Foreign-exchange availability and rupee volatility continue to shape import licensing, payment timelines, and working-capital needs. Even with gradual reserve improvements, firms face episodic restrictions and higher hedging costs, affecting machinery, chemicals, and intermediate inputs critical to export supply chains.

War-risk insurance capacity expands

New DFC-backed war-risk reinsurance facilities (e.g., $25 million capacity supporting up to $100 million limits) are gradually improving insurability for assets and cargo in Ukraine. Better coverage can unlock FDI and reconstruction contracts, but pricing, exclusions, and geographic limits remain tight.

Cryptocurrency as a Sanctions Evasion Tool

Iran’s central bank has purchased over $500 million in USDT (Tether) to defend the rial and facilitate trade, reflecting a shift toward digital assets to bypass financial restrictions. This strategy highlights both the regime’s adaptability and the increasing complexity of compliance for international firms engaging with Iran.

Semiconductor reshoring and export controls

Taiwan’s chip sector faces simultaneous pressures: US tariffs on certain advanced chips, tighter tech controls toward China, and major offshore fab investment. Firms must redesign compliance, IP protection, and capacity allocation while managing customer qualification and margin impacts.

EU ties deepen, standards rise

EU–Vietnam relations upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, accelerating cooperation on trade, infrastructure, “trusted” 5G, critical minerals and semiconductors. For exporters and investors, EVFTA opportunities expand but EU compliance demands tighten (ESG, origin, labour, CBAM reporting).

Macroeconomic Reform and Privatization Drive

Egypt is accelerating economic reforms, including privatization and reducing state economic involvement, to attract foreign investment. The government aims for over 70% private sector investment by 2030, supported by IMF-backed policies, improved credit ratings, and targeted sector incentives.

$350 Billion Investment Pact Stalled

A $350 billion South Korean investment commitment in the US, central to a new trade deal, faces delays due to parliamentary gridlock and currency concerns. The uncertainty undermines investor confidence and complicates cross-border business planning in key sectors such as technology and manufacturing.

Allied Coordination on Resource Security

Australia is collaborating with the US, UK, EU, and regional partners to establish price floors and secure supply chains for critical minerals. This coordinated approach aims to counter China’s market dominance, catalyze investment, and ensure stable access for clean energy and defense industries.

Massive Reconstruction and Investment Plans

Western allies, led by the EU and US, are finalizing a 10-year, $800 billion recovery plan for Ukraine, focusing on infrastructure, energy, and technology. The plan’s success depends on achieving peace and security guarantees, with private sector involvement critical for long-term economic recovery.

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience

Mexico is central to trilateral efforts with the US, EU, and Japan to secure critical mineral supply chains. Coordinated policies, investment, and new trade frameworks aim to mitigate vulnerabilities, diversify sources, and support strategic industries such as EVs and electronics.

Photonics and optics capacity

Finland’s optics and photonics base—supporting high-end XR headsets and sensing—attracts scale-up capital, including semiconductor-laser manufacturing expansion. This improves component availability for simulation devices, yet exposes firms to specialized materials dependencies and export-sensitive dual-use scrutiny.

USMCA review and regional risk

The coming USMCA review is a material downside risk for North American supply chains, with potential counter-tariffs and compliance changes. Canada’s central bank flags U.S.-driven policy volatility; businesses may defer capex, adjust sourcing, and build contingency inventory across the region.

Immigration tightening constrains labor

Reduced immigration and restrictive policies are linked to slower hiring and workforce shortages, affecting logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Analyses project legal immigration could fall 33–50% (1.5–2.4 million fewer entrants over four years), raising labor costs and operational risk.

Regulatory and antitrust pressure on tech

Heightened antitrust and platform regulation increases compliance and deal uncertainty for digital firms operating in the U.S., affecting M&A, app store terms, advertising, and data practices. Global companies should anticipate litigation risk, remedy requirements, and operational separations.

IMF-Led Economic Reform Momentum

Recent IMF engagement and disbursement of $1.2 billion have driven fiscal discipline, tax reforms, and macroeconomic stabilization. While these measures boost investor confidence, they also entail stringent conditions affecting trade, investment, and operational flexibility for foreign businesses.

China and Russia Strategic Partnerships

Iran’s economic and security dependence on China and Russia has deepened, with China absorbing over 80% of Iran’s oil exports and providing military, technological, and diplomatic support. These partnerships offer Iran lifelines but also expose foreign investors to secondary sanctions and geopolitical entanglements.

Market Transparency and Capital Outflows

Indonesia’s stock market suffered an $80 billion rout in January 2026 after MSCI flagged transparency and ownership concerns, threatening a downgrade to frontier market status. Regulatory reforms, including a 15% free float requirement, are underway, but investor confidence and foreign capital flows remain fragile.

Macro resilience, currency strength

Israel’s shekel strength, low unemployment and expectations of further rate cuts support domestic demand and investment planning, while war risk premia remain. Foreign firms should hedge FX volatility, stress-test financing costs, and monitor credit-rating narratives and sovereign bond market access.

Export Controls on AI Compute

Evolving Commerce/BIS restrictions on advanced AI chips and related technologies are tightening licensing, end‑use checks, and due diligence. Multinationals must segment products, manage re‑exports, and redesign cloud/AI deployments to avoid violations and sudden shipment holds in sensitive markets.

RBA tightening and persistent inflation risk

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% as core inflation re-accelerated and capacity pressures persisted. Higher financing costs and a stronger AUD can affect valuations, capex and consumer demand, while raising hedging needs for importers/exporters and tightening credit conditions across supply chains.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package broadens restrictions on energy, banks, goods and services, adds 43 shadow-fleet vessels (≈640 total), and targets third‑country facilitators. Heightened secondary‑sanctions exposure raises compliance costs and transaction refusal risk for global firms.

Environmental Enforcement and Permit Revocations

Indonesia has revoked permits for 28 companies, mainly in forestry, mining, and plantations, due to illegal deforestation and environmental violations. This signals stricter enforcement, affecting supply chains and compliance costs for resource-dependent industries.