FDI screening recalibration risk

India is reviewing Press Note 3 on FDI from bordering countries, potentially adding a de minimis threshold for small-ticket investments while keeping national-security screening intact. This could ease funding flows yet maintain uncertainty for China-linked capital structures.

Governance, taxation, and compliance tightening

IMF-led governance and anti-corruption reforms (procurement rules, asset disclosures, AML/CFT) may improve transparency but raise near-term compliance burden. Retroactive tax episodes and aggressive revenue drives increase legal and policy uncertainty, affecting investment underwriting and contract enforceability assumptions.

Rising labor costs and compliance

A new minimum-wage adjustment is being prepared for 2026, with regional classifications and mandatory social insurance and union-related contributions affecting total labor cost. Manufacturers should budget for wage drift, update payroll compliance, and reassess automation versus hiring plans.

Regional LNG Swap And Emergency Planning

Taiwan is building a three-stage contingency model: advance non‑Middle East cargoes, regional swaps with Japan/Korea, then higher-priced spot buying. For businesses, this reduces blackout risk but increases volatility in fuel surcharges, shipping schedules, and supplier continuity planning.

Cross-strait conflict and blockade risk

Elevated China–Taiwan tensions keep tail-risk of air/sea disruption high, affecting Taipei/Kaohsiung throughput, insurance premiums, and just-in-time electronics supply. Firms should harden contingency routing, inventory buffers, and crisis communications, especially for semiconductor-dependent products.

Domestic gas pricing and allocation

Industri mendorong batas harga LNG domestik ≤US$9/MMBtu dan pembatasan substitusi regasifikasi (≤15% alokasi PJBG) agar daya saing manufaktur terjaga. Ketidakpastian harga/volume gas memengaruhi keputusan investasi pabrik, kontrak energi, serta risiko biaya untuk operasi intensif energi.

FX management and yuan volatility

The PBOC is actively managing rapid yuan moves, scrapping the 20% FX forward risk reserve to cool appreciation after a >7% rise since April and $79.9bn January net FX inflows. This affects pricing, margins, hedging costs, and repatriation strategies for exporters and importers.

Tariff uncertainty and trade remedies

US courts curtailed broad tariff authority, but Washington is pivoting to Section 301/232 probes targeting EVs, batteries, rare earths and chips. China signals retaliation. Firms should expect shifting duty rates, rules-of-origin scrutiny, and relocation incentives across Asia.

Competition enforcement in platforms

Israel’s Competition Authority is challenging dominant platform models, signaling tougher antitrust. Wolt may lose its exemption for operating both a delivery platform and its own grocery retail chain, potentially forcing divestment—reshaping last-mile logistics, pricing, and retail partnerships.

Geopolitical competition in critical minerals

US access to Indonesian nickel and China’s entrenched investment create cross‑pressure on investors. Potential retaliation through slower tech transfer or reduced Chinese capital, plus shifting battery chemistries away from nickel, raises strategic uncertainty for EV plans.

Mega-infrastructure: Southern land bridge

The 990bn baht “land bridge” and Southern Economic Corridor aim to link Gulf and Andaman ports via motorway and double-track rail under a 50-year PPP. If advanced, it could re-route regional shipping and warehousing—but faces legislative and tender-timeline uncertainty.

Green hydrogen export ecosystem emerging

NEOM’s green hydrogen project, reported as a ~$8.4bn build with 2026 operational targets, underpins Saudi ambitions in clean-energy exports. For industry, it signals future demand for renewable EPC, electrolyzers, ports and offtake contracts, alongside evolving standards, certification and procurement localization.

IMF-backed reforms and conditionality

The IMF approved ~US$2.3bn after Egypt’s 5th/6th EFF reviews and first RSF review, extending the program to Dec 2026. Stabilization improved, but divestment and reducing state footprint lag—key determinants of investor confidence and regulation.

Tighter domestic logistics regulation

New rules mandate registration of Russian freight forwarders on the GosLog registry and technical integration with security services, including multi‑year data storage on Russian servers. Compliance costs may squeeze small providers, alter competition with “friendly” foreign firms, and add operational overhead.

Fuel import security via KPC stake

Uganda’s UNOC secured a 20.15% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company’s IPO to protect tariffs and continuity. With ~95% of refined fuel transiting Mombasa/KPC, downstream firms face tighter state coordination, changing procurement, and corridor disruption exposure.

Corporate governance reform accelerates

Toyota’s potential ~¥3tn cross‑shareholding unwind signals intensifying Tokyo Stock Exchange and regulator pressure to boost capital efficiency. Expect more buybacks, stake sales, and activism—altering control dynamics, partnership stability, and entry via equity positions.

Hormuz shock, energy imports risk

Strait of Hormuz disruption and US sanctions dynamics are reshaping India’s crude/LPG sourcing. India imports ~88–90% of oil; ~40–50% transits Hormuz. A US 30‑day waiver enabled Russian cargo offload, raising compliance and price volatility risks.

US/EU trade enforcement risk

Vietnam’s export boom faces rising trade-remedy scrutiny. Recent U.S. antidumping/countervailing duties include hard empty capsules with 47.12% dumping and 2.45% subsidy rates, signalling broader enforcement risk. Exporters should strengthen origin compliance and diversify end-markets.

Disrupsi Hormuz naikkan biaya logistik

Gangguan jalur Timur Tengah mendorong rerouting kapal, menambah 10–14 hari pelayaran dan berpotensi menaikkan freight 80–100%. Selain biaya, ketidakpastian jadwal menekan margin eksportir, mengganggu perencanaan inventori, serta meningkatkan kebutuhan working capital bagi importir bahan baku.

Infrastructure capex and PPP pipeline

Government plans roughly R1.07 trillion over three years for transport, energy, and water, seeking to crowd in private capital via the Budget Facility for Infrastructure. Opportunities expand for EPC, finance, and O&M firms, but permitting, municipal capacity, and governance execution remain constraints.

Hormuz and regional maritime security

Heightened U.S.-Iran friction and Iran’s history of vessel seizures increase the probability of incidents in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption would affect energy prices, war-risk premiums, shipping schedules, and regional supply chains for chemicals and consumer goods.

Nova reforma tributária do consumo

A transição para CBS e IBS entra em fase operacional em 2026, exigindo mudanças em faturamento, apuração e sistemas ERP, mesmo antes da vigência plena. A incerteza de regras infralegais e créditos pode afetar precificação, estrutura de cadeias e decisões de localização e investimentos.

China Exposure and Derisking

Germany’s trade with China rebounded to ~€251bn in 2025, but with a large deficit and rising policy risk. Firms face tighter scrutiny, rare-earth export curbs, and tougher EU trade defenses, reshaping sourcing, market access, and investment decisions.

Shadow-fleet oil trade opacity

Investigations point to a fast-changing ecosystem of shell traders and shared digital infrastructure masking Russian crude flows worth roughly $90bn, with entities lasting about six months. This raises due‑diligence difficulty, fraud and title risks, and shipment disruption from sudden designations or detentions.

Cross‑Strait Security Risk Premium

Persistent China–Taiwan tensions raise tail risks for shipping, aviation, and insurer pricing. Even without disruption, companies must plan for sudden sanctions, export controls, or logistics rerouting that could interrupt just‑in‑time electronics, machinery, and intermediate-goods flows.

Maritime security and chokepoints

Iran-linked regional tensions elevate risk around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea routing. Even without closure, seizures, drone incidents, and proxy threats can raise freight and war-risk premiums, extend lead times, and force supply chains to reroute and rebuffer.

Air connectivity intermittently constrained

Security-driven flight suspensions and temporary Israeli airspace closures disrupt executive travel, high‑value cargo, and just‑in‑time imports. Foreign carriers have repeatedly paused Tel Aviv service, while regional airspace curbs force rerouting, higher costs, and slower customs-to-delivery cycles.

EU Climate Trade Rules (CBAM)

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism tightens reporting and cost exposure for imports of carbon-intensive inputs (e.g., steel, cement, aluminum). Germany-based manufacturers and importers face compliance upgrades, supplier switching, and pricing impacts as definitive-phase obligations expand.

Energy exports pivot from Asia

Weak Asian LNG demand is pushing Australian sellers into longer-haul spot markets (first cargo to East Canada; shipments to Turkey/Chile). This reshapes shipping capacity, freight costs and contract structures, and may pressure upstream cashflows and new project FIDs.

Siyasi-gerilim şokları ve güven primi

IMF değerlendirmesi, 2025 Mart’ındaki piyasa stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlık satışı ve net rezervlerde sert düşüşe işaret ediyor; CDS 250 bp’den 370 bp’ye sıçramıştı. Benzer şoklar yatırım iştahı ve sermaye girişlerini dalgalandırabilir.

Foreign investment screening frictions

Investors report rising delays, cost and opacity in FIRB and related approvals, contributing to capital reallocation toward deregulating markets. For acquirers and infrastructure funds, timelines, conditions and sovereign-risk clauses are becoming central to deal strategy.

Stricter FDI screening and economic security

France is an active user of foreign investment controls under EU-wide economic security priorities, with faster approvals for most deals but deeper scrutiny for sensitive tech, energy, data and defence. Transaction timelines, remedies, and governance requirements can materially affect M&A execution.

Interoceanic Corridor logistics expansion

The Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Corridor—ports plus rail—aims to move containers coast-to-coast in under six hours with planned capacity around 1.4 million TEU/year. If delivered, it could reshape routing, industrial-park siting, and resilience versus Panama Canal disruptions.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

Critical minerals onshoring and alliances

Australia is funding critical-minerals refining R&D ($53m public plus $185m partners) and deepening cooperation with Canada and G7 partners to reduce China dependence. This supports downstream processing investment, but highlights infrastructure, permitting, and cost-competitiveness constraints.

Rezervler güçlü, dış borç baskısı

TCMB brüt rezervleri Ocak sonunda 218,2 milyar $ ile rekor görüp 20 Şubat haftasında 206,1 milyar $’a indi. Buna karşılık 1 yıl içinde vadesi gelecek kısa vadeli dış borç 225,4 milyar $. Yenileme maliyeti ve likidite riski artıyor.