Defense export surge and offsets

Korean shipbuilders and defense firms are competing for mega-deals (e.g., Canada’s submarine program, Saudi R&D cooperation). Large offsets and local-production demands can redirect capacity, tighten specialized supply chains, and create opportunities for foreign partners in co-production and sustainment.

Industrial relations and project risk

Rising union activity and expanded workplace rights are increasing operational complexity, notably in WA mining where right-of-entry requests rose ~400% in 12 months. Alongside corruption probes in construction unions, investors should price in schedule risk, bargaining costs, and governance diligence.

Border and nationalism-related disruptions

Nationalist politics linked to the Cambodia dispute is influencing border policy, including proposals for walls and checkpoint closures. Any tightening can disrupt cross-border trade, trucking, and regional supply chains, while elevating security, insurance, and compliance requirements for logistics operators.

Black Sea export corridor volatility

Ukraine’s maritime corridor via Odesa–Chornomorsk–Pivdennyi stays open but under intensified attacks on ports and shipping. Volumes swing sharply and insurance premiums remain elevated, complicating contract fulfillment for grain, metals, and containerized cargo and increasing lead-time uncertainty.

West Bank policy escalation and sanctions risk

Cabinet moves to deepen West Bank control and ease land acquisition for settlements raise diplomatic friction. Companies face heightened reputational exposure, potential EU/US policy responses, and tighter due diligence on counterparties, locations, and projects linked to occupied territories.

Crypto-based payments and enforcement

Sanctions and FX scarcity are accelerating use of crypto and stablecoins for trade settlement and wealth preservation, drawing increased OFAC attention and first-time sanctions on exchanges tied to Iran. This raises AML/KYC burdens and counterparty screening complexity for fintech and traders.

Tariff shocks and legal flux

U.S. tariff policy remains fluid after court challenges and new temporary surcharges, while Mexico imposed 5%–50% tariffs on 1,463 Chinese-linked tariff lines from 2026. Companies face price-pass-through risk, reclassification scrutiny, and a rising premium on documentation and origin strategy.

Reconstruction pipeline and procurement governance

Large donor-funded rebuilding is expanding tenders via platforms such as Prozorro, but governance and integrity scrutiny remains high. Contractors must prepare for stringent audits, beneficial-ownership transparency, ESG requirements, and delays linked to security conditions and permitting constraints.

Optics and photonics supply expansion

Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.

Section 232 national-security tariffs

Section 232 tools remain active beyond steel and aluminum, with investigations spanning pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, aircraft, and more. Even where partner deals grant partial relief, uncertainty around scope and timing complicates long-term supplier selection and U.S. market pricing strategies.

FCA crypto regime tightening

FCA’s CP26/4 and Consumer Duty guidance pull crypto trading, custody and safeguarding into mainstream conduct standards, with an authorisation gateway due Sept 2026–Feb 2027 and full regime expected Oct 2027—reshaping UK market entry and product design.

USMCA review and exit risk

With a mandatory July 1 review, the White House is reportedly weighing USMCA withdrawal while seeking tougher rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, and anti-dumping. Heightened uncertainty threatens North American integrated supply chains, automotive planning, and cross-border investment confidence.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Incertitude politique sur l’énergie

La PPE3 est politiquement inflammable: critiques RN/LR sur coûts et renouvelables, publication par décret, objectifs révisables dès l’an prochain. Pour les entreprises: risque de changements de règles d’appels d’offres, volatilité de subventions, planification CAPEX complexe.

Critical minerals de-risking drive

Budget measures and diplomacy intensify to reduce reliance on China, including rare earth corridors across coastal states and customs-duty relief for processing equipment. India is also negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, reshaping sourcing strategies.

Vision 2030 spending recalibration

PIF is resetting its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects like NEOM’s The Line amid fiscal pressure from lower oil prices. Investors should expect shifting procurement pipelines, timelines and counterparties across giga-project supply chains.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

FX regime and liquidity risks

Despite stronger reserves, businesses still face exposure to FX volatility, repatriation timing, and episodic liquidity squeezes as reforms deepen. Pricing, hedging, and local sourcing strategies remain critical, especially for import-intensive sectors and foreign-funded projects.

Cargo theft and logistics security

Cargo theft remains a material operating risk despite reported declines: industry estimates put 2025 losses above MXN 7 billion, with hotspots in Estado de México and Puebla and key routes like México–Querétaro. High jammer use raises insurance, tracking, and routing costs.

Property slump and financial spillovers

China’s housing correction continues to depress demand and strain credit. January new-home prices fell 3.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. Persistent developer debt and bank exposures weigh on consumption, payments risk, and counterparty reliability across B2B sectors.

AML/CTF bar for crypto access

FCA registration milestones (e.g., Blockchain.com) show continued selectivity under UK Money Laundering Regulations. Firms need robust CDD, transaction monitoring, record-keeping and senior-manager accountability, influencing partner bank access and cross-border onboarding scalability.

China tech export-control tightening

Export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI are tightening, raising compliance risk and limiting China revenue. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face strict, non‑negotiable license terms and end‑use monitoring; Applied Materials agreed to a $252M penalty over alleged SMIC-linked exports, signaling tougher BIS enforcement.

FDI ivmesi ve yatırım teşvikleri

2025’te DYY %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $ oldu; en büyük pay toptan-perakende %32, imalat %31, bilgi-iletişim %14. HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri, 5G yetkilendirmeleri ve sanayi alanı ilanları yatırım çekiyor; ancak finansman maliyeti ve politika algısı seçiciliği artırıyor.

U.S. tariffs and USMCA review

Ongoing U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, plus uncertainty ahead of the USMCA/CUSMA review, are reshaping pricing, investment and sourcing decisions. Court action narrowed some emergency tariffs, but new U.S. tools keep policy volatility high.

Capital markets reform and activism

Commercial Code revisions and rising activist campaigns are pressuring chaebol governance, buybacks, board independence, and capital efficiency to reduce the “Korea discount.” This can unlock valuation upside for investors but increases management distraction, event risk, and M&A complexity.

Red Sea security and route risk

Houthi shipping attacks are suspended but conditional on Gaza dynamics; advisories and high-risk designations remain. Carriers cautiously test Suez while many still route via the Cape. Firms should plan for volatile transit times, higher war-risk premiums, GPS interference and contingency inventory for Red Sea lanes.

US probes non-tariff barriers

Washington is pressuring Seoul to dismantle “non-tariff barriers,” including digital-platform, mapping-data, and app-store payment rules, and is considering Section 301 actions. This raises compliance and lobbying costs for multinationals and could trigger targeted duties or market-access concessions.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Preparations for the USMCA/CUSMA joint review are colliding with renewed U.S. tariff threats on autos, steel, aluminum and other goods, raising compliance and pricing risk for integrated North American supply chains and cross-border investment planning.

Post-election policy continuity risk

Bhumjaithai’s landslide win improved near-term sentiment, but coalition bargaining and potential reshuffles raise execution risk. Businesses should expect regulatory and budget-timing uncertainty (FY2027 disbursement delays), and prioritize scenario planning for permits, procurement, and public-project pipelines.

Regional war and security risk

Gaza conflict and spillovers (Lebanon, Iran proxies) keep Israel’s risk premium elevated, raising insurance, freight, and business-continuity costs. Mobilization and security alerts disrupt staffing and site access, while renewed escalation could rapidly impair ports, aviation, and cross-border trade.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

Ukraine is expanding sanctions targeting Russian defence supply chains, financiers, and crypto/payment networks, often coordinated with EU packages. Multinationals must strengthen screening for third-country intermediaries, dual-use items, and maritime counterparties to avoid secondary exposure and reputational risk.

Regulatory uncertainty, policy credibility

Even with improving macro indicators (primary surplus ~1.3% of GDP; current-account surplus), business planning is constrained by frequent policy adjustments tied to IMF benchmarks and coalition politics. Expect shifting tax measures, price controls and sectoral directives; robust scenario planning and stabilization clauses are critical.

Cross-strait coercion and shipping risk

China’s escalating air, naval, and coast-guard activity supports gray-zone “quarantine” tactics that could raise insurance premiums, slow port operations, and disrupt Taiwan-bound shipping without formal war. Firms should stress-test logistics, buffer inventories, and ensure alternative routing and contracts.

Energy policy boosts LNG exports

A shift toward faster permitting and “regular order” approvals for LNG terminals and non-FTA exports signals higher medium-term US gas supply to Europe and Asia. This supports long-term contracting but can raise domestic price volatility and regulatory swings for energy-intensive industries.

Heizungsgesetz-Reform erhöht Regulierungsrisiko

Die angekündigte Überarbeitung des Gebäudeenergiegesetzes („Heizungsgesetz“) schafft kurzfristig Unsicherheit über zulässige Technologien, Nachrüstpflichten und Übergangsfristen. Das bremst Investitionsentscheidungen, verschiebt Aufträge und verändert Markteintrittsstrategien für ausländische Hersteller, EPCs und Finanzierer.

Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.