
Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 24, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
As the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered to step down in exchange for NATO membership and lasting peace for his country. President Donald Trump has made concessions to Russia, including agreeing to normalise relations and excluding NATO membership for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Germany is facing a shift to the right in its federal election, with Elon Musk intervening in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), sparking outrage and accusations of interference. In Gaza, Hamas has freed three more Israeli hostages, marking the final phase of the initial ceasefire agreement. Lastly, a suspected terrorist was arrested in France after killing one person and injuring five others in a knife rampage, prompting calls for stronger action against radicalisation and deportation failures.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict
The third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is approaching, and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made a startling offer to step down in exchange for NATO membership and lasting peace for his country. This offer comes amid rapid changes in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, who has made several concessions to Russia, including agreeing to normalise relations and excluding NATO membership for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy's offer is a sign of the extreme pressure he is under as the US hurries to hatch a peace deal with Moscow. The Trump administration has made several concessions to Russia, including agreeing to normalise relations after bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia last week, while excluding NATO membership for Ukraine. Trump described Zelenskyy as a "dictator" and blamed Kyiv, rather than Moscow, for starting the war.
Russia launched its biggest drone strike against Ukraine on Sunday, firing 267 drones against multiple targets across the country. Ukrainian officials say Washington is also trying to strong-arm Zelenskyy into signing a deal that would award the US large amounts of the proceeds from extracting Ukrainian mineral deposits. Zelenskyy has pushed back against the Trump administration's demands, rejecting the idea of a minerals "partnership" with the US and arguing that it would not provide adequate security guarantees.
Zelenskyy has expressed fears that Trump pushing a quick resolution would result in lost territory for Ukraine and vulnerability to future Russian aggression. Preparations are underway for a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking a clear departure from Western efforts to isolate Moscow over its war on Ukraine.
German Federal Election
Germany is facing a shift to the right in its federal election, with Elon Musk intervening in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), sparking outrage and accusations of interference. Musk has repeatedly intervened in support of the AfD, including publishing a supportive guest opinion piece for the country's Welt am Sonntag newspaper and hosting a virtual encounter with AfD leader Alice Weidel.
Musk's open calls for German voters to back the AfD, which federal authorities classify as a suspected extremist party, have sparked outrage and accusations of troubling interference in Europe's top economy. Government spokesperson Christiane Hoffmann has confirmed that Musk is trying to influence the federal election.
Musk has often weighed in on German politics, even calling the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a "fool" on his social media platform X. Last month, Musk made a supportive speech at a campaign event for the AfD in Halle, eastern Germany, telling attendees that Germany was too focused on past guilt and that the AfD was the best hope for the country.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire
In Gaza, Hamas has freed three more Israeli hostages, marking the final phase of the initial ceasefire agreement. The six Israelis scheduled for release are Eliya Cohen, Omer Shem Tov, Omer Wenkert, Hisham Al-Sayed, Tal Shoham, and Averu Mengistu. Hamas handed over two Israeli hostages to the Red Cross, and three more Israeli hostages were escorted by masked, armed Hamas fighters and made to pose on a stage before hundreds of Palestinians in the central town of Nuseirat.
Israel is set to release 600 Palestinian prisoners who were detained from Gaza since October 7. Earlier in the day, the militant group finally handed over the body of Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas. Her family confirmed the identification, stating, "Last night, our Shiri was returned home." Initially, Hamas had claimed to have returned Bibas' remains alongside those of her two sons and another hostage on Thursday. However, forensic tests revealed that the body said to be hers was, in fact, that of an unidentified Palestinian woman.
Netanyahu strongly criticised the group, stating in a video message that "In an unspeakably cynical way, they did not return Shiri to her little children, the little angels, and they put the body of a Gazan woman in a coffin. We will act with determination to bring Shiri home along with all our hostages - both living and dead - and ensure that Hamas pays the full price for this cruel and vicious violation of the agreement."
France Terrorist Attack
A suspected terrorist was arrested in France after killing one person and injuring five others in a knife rampage, prompting calls for stronger action against radicalisation and deportation failures. The suspect was reportedly on France's Terrorist Radicalization Prevention Reporting File (FSPRT) and had previously been sentenced to six months in prison for posting a social media video calling for jihad, or "holy war".
French President Emmanuel Macron has since declared the incident "an Islamist terrorist act" and vowed to continue efforts "to eradicate terrorism on our soil." Far-right politicians were quick to slam the government's handling of radicalisation and deportation failures, calling for stronger action to control borders, strip jihadists of citizenship, expel radical imams, and sever ties with nations that support fundamentalists.
Saturday's horrific rampage follows a string of Islamist attacks in Europe, including a Syrian refugee in Berlin allegedly attempting to slit the throat of a Spanish tourist at the Holocaust Memorial and an Afghan asylum seeker ploughing his car into a crowd of demonstrators in Munich, killing a mother and her two-year-old daughter.
Further Reading:
Hamas frees 3 more Israeli hostages
Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine on eve of third year of war
Three More Israeli Hostages Freed By Hamas As Gaza Ceasefire Deal Advances
Trump-Putin summit preparations are underway, Russia says
Zelenskyy Says 'Ready To Step Down' As President In Exchange For NATO Membership For Ukraine
Zelenskyy offers to step down in exchange for peace and Nato membership
Zelenskyy offers to step down in exchange for peace and Ukraine’s Nato membership
Themes around the World:
Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economy
Declining oil prices, currently around $69 per barrel, have pressured Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance, leading to budget deficits and increased sovereign debt issuance. This volatility challenges public finances and underscores the urgency of economic diversification to reduce dependence on oil revenues and stabilize government spending.
Digital Economy and IT Sector Growth
Egypt's IT market is projected to nearly triple to $9.2 billion by 2031, driven by state-led digital infrastructure expansion, 5G deployment, and growing enterprise demand for cloud and managed services. This digital transformation enhances Egypt's competitiveness in technology sectors, attracting foreign investment and enabling new business models in the region.
Geopolitical Realignments and Trade Diversification
Russia's pivot towards non-Western markets, especially China and India, mitigates the impact of Western sanctions by sustaining crude sales. This realignment reduces Western influence over Russia’s energy exports and complicates international efforts to isolate Moscow economically, affecting global trade patterns and investment strategies in the energy sector.
Foreign Investment in Russia’s Far East
Russia’s Far East development initiative attracts interest from ASEAN, China, BRICS, and Global South investors, driven by resource wealth and political commitment. This regional focus offers a strategic avenue for Russia to mitigate Western sanctions impacts by fostering partnerships and infrastructure development, potentially reshaping investment flows and economic integration in Asia-Pacific.
Corporate Restructuring and Employment Trends
Major Australian banks and corporations are undertaking job cuts and restructuring to manage costs amid economic uncertainties. These changes affect labor markets, consumer confidence, and sectoral growth prospects, with implications for domestic demand and investment strategies.
Challenges in Metallurgical Industry
Russia's metallurgical sector faces a severe crisis with a 10.2% output decline in July 2025, the worst in years. Key companies report significant sales drops and losses due to sanctions, loss of export markets, reduced domestic demand, and restrictive monetary policy. This contraction threatens industrial supply chains and export revenues.
National Economic Development Narrative
Egypt launched a comprehensive economic narrative emphasizing private sector-led growth, debt reduction, and export expansion aligned with Vision 2030. The strategy includes restructuring state-owned enterprises, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and leveraging digital services to improve the business environment, aiming to boost investor confidence and sustainable economic development.
Sterling Strength and Corporate FX Hedging
The British pound's sharp appreciation against the US dollar in 2025 has pressured UK exporters, prompting companies to increase currency hedging to mitigate earnings volatility. Firms like British American Tobacco and Unilever report significant foreign exchange headwinds. Central bank policies remain a key driver of FX risk management amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
Capital Market Expansion and Diversification
The Saudi capital market experienced significant growth in Q2 2025, with non-listed corporate debt rising over 500% year-on-year to SR1.2 billion. Government debt instruments also increased by 132%. The Capital Market Authority's reforms and new investment products have broadened investor portfolios, enhancing market depth and attracting both domestic and foreign investors, supporting economic diversification.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Outlook
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is navigating a delicate balance between inflation control and supporting employment, with interest rate cuts anticipated but timing uncertain. This monetary policy stance influences borrowing costs, consumer spending, and business investment, directly affecting Australia's economic growth and market stability.
Cryptocurrency Legalization and Taxation
Ukraine's parliament passed the first reading of a bill to legalize and tax cryptocurrencies, imposing a combined 23% tax on crypto profits and a temporary 5% tax on fiat conversions. This regulatory move aligns with EU standards, aims to curb illicit crypto flows, and could generate significant state revenue for defense and reconstruction. Formal crypto regulation may attract investment and innovation, strengthening Ukraine's position as a crypto hub amid ongoing conflict.
Fiscal Pressures and Reconstruction Spending
The budget deficit forecast increased to 3.6% of GDP due to higher government spending, notably on reconstruction after the 2023 earthquakes. New taxes on households and businesses aim to finance these efforts but add strain on consumers and firms, potentially dampening domestic demand and investment.
Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook
Despite political turmoil, M&A activity in France is expected to accelerate in the latter half of 2025. France's strategic sectors, including energy, luxury, and healthcare, remain attractive to investors. The country's position as a European hub, especially post-Brexit, supports continued deal flow, although political risks may influence deal valuations and timing.
North Sea Oil Industry Exodus Risk
The UK’s North Sea oil and gas sector faces a strategic exodus of contractors due to high taxes, regulatory uncertainty, and lack of new exploration licenses. This threatens supply chains, energy security, and government revenues. Without fiscal reform, investment could decline, impacting the energy transition and increasing reliance on energy imports, with broad economic consequences.
US Political Instability Impact
The United States has become a significant source of supply chain volatility due to frequent policy shifts, tariffs, export controls, and sanctions. These abrupt regulatory changes disrupt global supply chains, forcing businesses to adopt proactive legal and operational strategies to manage geopolitical risks and maintain resilience in an unpredictable trade environment.
Financial Sector Resilience and Banking Upgrades
S&P Global Ratings upgraded credit ratings of major Vietnamese banks, reflecting improved asset quality and macroeconomic stability. The banking sector benefits from strong deposit bases and accommodative monetary policy, though credit risks remain due to high private sector leverage. Regulatory reforms and enhanced governance aim to strengthen financial system resilience amid external uncertainties.
Stock Market Bubble Risks
China's stock market has surged over $1 trillion, driven by record margin financing and retail investor enthusiasm. Regulatory scrutiny and market volatility raise concerns about speculative bubbles, prompting brokerages and funds to impose curbs. This volatility affects investor confidence and could impact capital flows and economic stability.
Currency Market Intervention and Monetary Policy
Bank Indonesia has actively intervened to stabilize the rupiah amid political turmoil and market volatility. Inflation remains within target range, providing room for potential interest rate cuts to support growth. However, uncertainty around fiscal policy and political risks complicate monetary policy effectiveness and investor sentiment.
Declining Business Confidence
South African business confidence has slipped further in 2025, with surveys indicating a drop to 39 points, well below the long-term average of 42. This decline is driven by tariff pressures, high electricity costs, administrative burdens, and political uncertainties, which collectively undermine investment prospects and economic growth.
Strategic Energy Sector Partnerships
Egypt secured over $1.5bn in international energy deals, including $340mn for Mediterranean and Nile Delta exploration and $1bn from China Energy Engineering Corporation for renewables and desalination. These partnerships enhance energy security, diversify energy sources, and position Egypt as a regional energy hub, attracting further foreign investment and supporting industrial growth.
Currency Volatility and Ruble Depreciation
The Russian ruble has experienced significant depreciation, losing 10-12% of its value against major currencies since mid-2025. Currency volatility increases transaction risks for international trade and investment, complicates import pricing, and contributes to inflationary pressures, thereby affecting business planning and profitability.
Economic Diversification and Private Sector Growth
Non-oil activities now represent 56% of Saudi Arabia's GDP, with private sector investment accounting for 76% of gross fixed capital formation. Vision 2030 initiatives and reforms have accelerated diversification, reducing oil dependency and expanding sectors like insurance, real estate, and technology, thereby creating a more resilient and balanced economy.
Political Instability Disrupts Supply Chains
Political instability and government changes, including in the U.S., have become persistent risks disrupting global supply chains. Sudden policy reversals, tariffs, export controls, and regulatory volatility create uncertainty in sourcing, production, and compliance, forcing companies to adopt proactive strategies to build resilience amid unpredictable geopolitical and legal environments.
Gold's Rising Influence on CAD
Gold has emerged as a dominant driver of the Canadian dollar, surpassing oil and interest rates in influence. Canada's record trade surplus in gold and soaring bullion prices provide currency support amid economic contractions, signaling a shift in commodity dependence that investors and businesses must consider in risk assessments and currency exposure.
Corporate Profitability and Business Losses
Nearly one-third of Russia's largest companies reported losses in early 2025, the highest since the pandemic, reflecting war-related pressures, sanctions, inflation, and high taxes. Key sectors like coal mining, utilities, and transportation are hardest hit, while defense-linked firms grow. High interest rates and an overvalued ruble create a challenging environment for corporate profitability and investment.
Stock Market Volatility and Sectoral Shifts
South Korean equity markets experienced mixed performance with construction stocks rallying on government housing policies, while automakers declined due to operational risks. Foreign investors remain net buyers, but uncertainties over US interest rates and trade policies contribute to volatility. Currency fluctuations and bond yield movements reflect cautious investor sentiment amid global economic uncertainties.
Cross-Border Trade Growth and Nearshoring Trends
U.S.-Mexico cross-border trade rose 5% in July 2025, reinforcing Mexico’s position as the U.S.’s top trading partner. The Bajío–Mexico City–Querétaro corridor is emerging as a key economic hub, fueled by nearshoring and retail expansion. New export regulations aim to tighten oversight on sensitive goods, impacting logistics and supply chain management but supporting trade security and compliance.
US Tariffs Impact on Indian Economy
The US has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, targeting labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and footwear. This move threatens a $55-60 billion hit to India's economy, risking job losses and reduced export competitiveness. The tariffs exacerbate trade tensions, potentially slowing growth and disrupting supply chains reliant on US markets.
Financial Sector Transformations
Major Mexican banks like CIBanco and Intercam undergo strategic restructuring amid regulatory pressures, including acquisitions and divestitures. These changes aim to ensure service continuity and compliance, reflecting broader financial sector adjustments in response to domestic and international regulatory environments.
Activist Investors Reshape U.S. Business Landscape
New activist investors are prompting strategic reassessments across major U.S. corporations, influencing governance and operational decisions. This shake-up occurs amid broader political tensions and economic uncertainties, affecting business confidence and investment strategies.
Social Unrest and Labor Market Pressures
Proposed austerity measures, including spending cuts and public holiday abolitions, have sparked widespread social opposition, strikes, and protests. This social unrest exacerbates political instability and could disrupt supply chains and business operations, while labor market tensions may affect productivity and investor confidence in the medium term.
Sovereign Credit Rating Risks
Rising public debt and weakening tax revenues raise concerns over potential sovereign credit rating downgrades. Despite a current debt-to-GDP ratio below the ceiling, slower GDP growth and fiscal deficits threaten fiscal sustainability. A downgrade could increase borrowing costs, reduce investor confidence, and constrain government capacity to finance growth-supporting initiatives.
USMCA Renegotiation Risks
The upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement poses significant uncertainty for Canadian trade, with potential US tariffs of up to 15% on Canadian goods. This threatens to disrupt supply chains, reduce business investment, and dampen economic growth, creating volatility for exporters and investors reliant on stable US-Canada trade relations.
Robust Foreign Exchange Reserves
Egypt's net international reserves hit a historic $49.25 billion in August 2025, bolstered by gold holdings and diversified assets. This financial buffer enhances Egypt's ability to manage external shocks, stabilize currency, and meet import and debt obligations, strengthening investor confidence ahead of key IMF reviews.
Impact on Eurozone Stability and EU Relations
France's instability threatens the Franco-German axis, a cornerstone of EU integration, potentially weakening France's influence in EU policymaking. Fiscal indiscipline risks undermining EU deficit rules and could trigger contagion effects across the Eurozone, challenging collective economic governance and complicating trade, industrial policy, and climate initiatives within the bloc.
Foreign Investment Sentiment and Project Cancellations
Tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions have led to a record ₹2 lakh crore worth of foreign projects being halted or dropped in India in Q1 FY26, reflecting investor pessimism. The ratio of dropped to new projects surged to the highest since 2010, indicating cautious foreign direct investment sentiment that could impact India's long-term industrial growth and job creation.