Critical Minerals Strategy and Supply Chain Security

Australia is rapidly expanding its critical minerals sector, prioritizing rare earths, gallium, and scandium. Strategic reserves and Western partnerships aim to reduce dependence on China, shaping investment, supply chain resilience, and global competitiveness in clean energy and technology.

Record EBRD and Foreign Investment Inflows

The EBRD invested a record €2.7 billion in Turkey in 2025, with 91% in the private sector. Major projects include infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction, underlining Turkey’s long-term investment appeal and resilience.

Escalating Cross-Strait Geopolitical Risks

China’s increased military pressure, including frequent air and naval incursions, raises the risk of conflict and supply chain disruption. Heightened tensions threaten business continuity, insurance costs, and regional stability, making contingency planning essential for international firms.

Armenia–Turkey Border Reopening Prospects

The anticipated partial reopening of the Armenia–Turkey border is set to reduce logistics costs, expand market access, and boost regional trade and investment. This development could reshape supply chains and enhance Turkey’s connectivity with the Caucasus and beyond, with positive spillovers for international business.

Fiscal activism and policy uncertainty

Snap election dynamics and proposed tax/spending shifts are raising fiscal-risk scrutiny for Japan’s high-debt sovereign, influencing rates, infrastructure budgets and public procurement. For investors, this can move funding costs, affect stimulus-linked sectors, and increase scenario-planning needs around policy reversals.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para CBS/IBS e Imposto Seletivo começa em 2026 e vai até 2033, com mudanças de crédito e cobrança no destino. Empresas precisam adaptar ERP, precificação e contratos; risco de litígios e custos temporários de compliance aumenta.

Rising funding costs, liquidity swings

Short-term liquidity tightened around Tet, pushing interbank rates sharply higher and prompting widespread deposit-rate hikes; Agribank lifted longer tenors up to 6%. Higher financing costs can squeeze working capital, pressure leveraged sectors, and raise hurdle rates for projects.

Shifting Patterns in Foreign Investment

Foreign direct investment in China fell 9.5% in 2025, reflecting investor caution amid regulatory tightening and geopolitical friction. However, select countries like Switzerland and the UAE increased their stakes, highlighting nuanced opportunities and the need for market-specific strategies.

Export Controls on AI Compute

Evolving Commerce/BIS restrictions on advanced AI chips and related technologies are tightening licensing, end‑use checks, and due diligence. Multinationals must segment products, manage re‑exports, and redesign cloud/AI deployments to avoid violations and sudden shipment holds in sensitive markets.

Ports and logistics labor uncertainty

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to port and transport labor negotiations and anti-automation disputes, increasing disruption risk at key gateways. Importers may diversify ports, adjust routing, and carry higher safety stock, especially when tariff timing triggers demand spikes and front-loading behavior.

Maritime services ban on crude

Brussels proposes banning EU shipping, insurance, finance and port services for Russian crude at any price, moving beyond the G7 price cap. If adopted, logistics will shift further to higher‑risk shadow channels, raising freight, delays, and legal liability.

Energy Geopolitics and Trade Deals

U.S. trade negotiations increasingly bundle energy commitments and geopolitical conditions, as seen in tariff relief tied to partners’ changes in Russian oil purchases. This links market access to energy sourcing, complicating procurement strategies and increasing political risk in long-term offtake contracts.

USMCA Review and North America Rules

Washington and Mexico have begun talks ahead of the July 1 USMCA joint review, targeting tougher rules of origin, critical‑minerals cooperation, and anti‑dumping measures. Automotive and industrial supply chains face redesign risk, while Canada‑US tensions add uncertainty for trilateral planning.

Orta Koridor lojistik fırsatı

Trans-Hazar Orta Koridoru, Çin‑Avrupa transit süresini deniz yolundaki 35–50 günden 18–25 güne düşürebiliyor. Türkiye’nin demiryolu/liman bağlantıları, depolama ve gümrük verimliliği yatırımları önem kazanıyor; kapasite darboğazı ve sınır geçiş gecikmeleri operasyonel risk.

Macroeconomic slowdown, FX sensitivity

The NBU cut the key rate to 15% while warning war damage reduces GDP growth to about 1.8% and pressures the balance of payments. Elevated uncertainty affects pricing, payment terms, working-capital needs, and currency hedging for importers and exporters.

Gargalos portuários e leilões críticos

O megaterminal Tecon Santos 10 (R$ 6,45 bi) enfrenta controvérsia sobre restrições a operadores e armadores, elevando risco de judicialização e atrasos. Como Santos responde por 29% do comércio exterior, impactos recaem sobre custos logísticos e prazos.

Persistent Logistics and Port Inefficiencies

Chronic inefficiencies at South African ports, especially Cape Town and Durban, continue to undermine export competitiveness. Recent failures cost the fruit sector hundreds of millions of rand, with global port rankings placing South African ports among the worst, hampering supply chains and growth.

Chabahar Port and Regional Connectivity Setbacks

US sanctions and tariffs have forced India to scale back its investment in Iran’s Chabahar port, a critical node for regional trade and access to Central Asia. The project’s future is uncertain, undermining Iran’s ambitions as a logistics hub and limiting diversification of supply routes.

Geopolitical Risks and Regional Diplomacy

Egypt’s proximity to regional conflicts, especially Gaza and Sudan, creates persistent geopolitical risks. Diplomatic efforts focus on regional stability, but disruptions can impact trade, investment sentiment, and supply chains, especially via the Suez Canal and border regions.

State Intervention in Industrial Policy

Australia is shifting toward greater state intervention in strategic sectors, using price floors, tax incentives, and direct support for critical minerals. This marks a departure from market orthodoxy, aiming to crowd in private investment and manage economic risks tied to geopolitical competition.

Strategic China-Pakistan Economic Cooperation

China’s commitment of up to $10 billion in new investments, especially in minerals, agriculture, and infrastructure, signals deepening economic ties. Joint ventures under CPEC and technology transfer initiatives are reshaping Pakistan’s resource sectors and supply chain dynamics.

Chronic Debt Dependency Crisis

Pakistan’s reliance on foreign loans from China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the IMF has reached critical levels, with external debt exceeding $128 billion. This dependency forces policy compromises and exposes businesses to currency volatility, regulatory unpredictability, and lender-driven reforms.

Aerospace certification dispute escalation

A U.S.–Canada aircraft certification dispute triggered threats of 50% tariffs and decertification affecting Canadian-made aircraft and Bombardier. Even if moderated, this highlights vulnerability of regulated sectors to politicized decisions, raising compliance, delivery, leasing and MRO disruption risk.

Critical Mineral Diversification Strategy

Japanese firms are rapidly diversifying supply chains for minerals like gallium and rare earths, securing new sources in Kazakhstan and Australia. These efforts aim to reduce strategic vulnerabilities, ensure manufacturing continuity, and stabilize high-tech sectors amid global supply shocks.

Defense export surge into Europe

Hanwha Aerospace’s ~$2.1bn Norway deal for the Chunmoo long-range fires system underscores Korea’s growing defense-industry competitiveness and government-backed “Team Korea” diplomacy. It signals expanding European demand, offset/industrial-partnership opportunities, and tighter export-control and compliance requirements.

US–Indonesia tariff deal pending

The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade is reportedly 90% legally drafted, reducing threatened US duties on Indonesian exports from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia would eliminate tariffs on most US imports. Digital-trade and sanctions-alignment clauses could reshape compliance and market-access strategies.

Defense Sector Privatization and Global Demand

Plans to privatize state-owned defense companies, including a potential $27 billion IPO for Israel Aerospace Industries, reflect efforts to increase flexibility and international competitiveness. Global demand for Israeli defense technology is rising, especially in Europe, amid heightened security concerns.

Hormuz chokepoint maritime insecurity

Heightened US-Iran confrontation is already depressing Gulf shipping activity and increasing war-risk premiums. Iran threatens disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waterways; even limited incidents can spike freight rates, insurance, and delivery times for energy and container cargo.

Geopolitical Balancing and Strategic Autonomy

Vietnam is leveraging ‘bamboo diplomacy’ to maintain balanced relations with major powers, diversify markets, and enhance strategic autonomy. This approach reduces overdependence on any single partner, bolsters resilience, and positions Vietnam as a key node in regional and global trade.

Critical minerals export controls

China’s expanding controls on dual-use goods and critical minerals (rare earths, gallium) and licensing slowdowns—seen in Japan-related restrictions and buyers diversifying to Kazakhstan—create acute input risk for semiconductors, EVs, aerospace, and defense-linked manufacturing worldwide.

AI governance in retail finance

FCA’s call for input on AI’s long-term impact to 2030 signals reliance on outcome-based frameworks rather than new rules. Online investing firms must prove model governance, explainability and third‑party controls to deploy AI in advice, nudging and surveillance.

Energy transition supply-chain frictions

Rising restrictions and tariffs targeting Chinese-origin batteries and energy storage (e.g., FEOC rules, higher Section 301 tariffs) are forcing earlier compliance screening, origin tracing, and dual-sourcing—impacting project finance, delivery schedules, and total installed costs globally.

Red Sea–Suez shipping volatility

Red Sea security disruptions continue to reroute vessels, weakening Suez Canal throughput and foreign-currency inflows. While recent data show partial recovery (FY2025/26 H1 revenues +18.5%), insurers, transit times, and freight rates remain unstable, affecting Egypt-linked logistics and pricing.

Labor Market Tightness and Transformation

The US labor market remains tight, with low unemployment and rising wages, while technological adoption and immigration policy shifts are transforming workforce dynamics. These trends impact talent acquisition, operational costs, and long-term competitiveness for both domestic and international firms.

Energy export policy and pricing

US LNG export capacity and permitting decisions influence global gas prices and industrial competitiveness. Any tightening of export approvals or infrastructure constraints can raise volatility for energy-intensive manufacturers abroad, while expanded capacity strengthens US leverage and attracts downstream investment into North America.

Semiconductor Industry Policy Overhaul

South Korea passed a landmark law to strengthen its semiconductor sector, establishing a presidential commission and special funding. The law aims to secure technological leadership in AI chips, centralize support, and incentivize regional development, directly impacting global tech supply chains and investment flows.