Minerais críticos e capital estrangeiro

O Brasil acelera projetos de minerais críticos: a Serra Verde obteve empréstimo de US$565 milhões da DFC, com opção de participação minoritária dos EUA, e Minas Gerais concedeu incentivo fiscal (até 18%) para projetos de nióbio/terras raras em Araxá. Impulsiona cadeias não‑China.

Housing correction and financial oversight

Falling condo valuations and tighter OSFI scrutiny of “blanket” appraisals raise mortgage and developer risk, with potential knock-on effects for bank credit conditions. International investors should expect stricter underwriting, slower project financing, and more conservative counterparty behavior in real estate-linked sectors.

Volatilidade macro, juros e câmbio

Inflação (IPCA-15) surpreendeu e o Copom sinaliza início de cortes da Selic, hoje alta, enquanto projeções apontam Selic de 12% no fim de 2026 e câmbio perto de R$5,42. Para importadores/exportadores, aumenta risco de hedge e custo de capital.

Middle East shock, fuel-price volatility

The Iran war is pushing up oil, fuel and gas prices, reviving Germany’s energy-security and inflation risks. Policymakers debate using strategic reserves and stronger price monitoring. Higher transport and input costs can quickly ripple through German-centric European supply chains.

Tightening China tech decoupling

U.S.-China semiconductor controls remain fluid: Nvidia paused China-bound H200 production amid anticipated new curbs, while licensing and tariffs shift. Companies face disrupted China revenue, supply allocation changes at TSMC, and higher compliance risk for dual-use technologies.

Critical minerals industrial-policy surge

Ottawa is accelerating mining and processing to de-risk allied supply chains: a second round of 30 partnerships aims to unlock C$12.1B (C$18.5B total), while ~C$3.6B in new programs adds infrastructure funding and a C$2B sovereign fund.

Tougher skilled-visa economics

FY2027 H‑1B registrations adopt wage-weighted selection and require wage-level disclosures; proposals to raise prevailing wages and a $100,000 fee for first-time hires arriving from abroad increase labor costs. Multinationals may shift hiring to US-based candidates or offshore delivery.

Renewables manufacturing and grid buildout

Government-backed projects in silicon, PV wafers, rare earths and magnetite aim to localise decarbonisation supply chains and reduce import dependence. This creates opportunities in equipment, EPC, logistics, and offtake, but execution hinges on permitting, infrastructure readiness, and skills availability.

USMCA review and tariff uncertainty

The 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review, ongoing U.S. sectoral tariffs (steel, aluminum, autos, lumber) and threats of higher baseline duties are chilling investment and complicating rules-of-origin planning. Firms should stress-test pricing, sourcing, and cross-border compliance scenarios.

Industrial relations and labour-code rollout

Implementation and amendments to labour codes, plus state rules (e.g., Karnataka) shift industrial relations, overtime limits and compliance processes. For investors, this can improve formalisation and hiring flexibility, but also raises union/political risk and state-by-state operational complexity.

Sanctions expansion and enforcement

US/EU sanctions remain the primary constraint on Iran exposure, with intensified enforcement targeting entities, ships, and intermediaries supporting illicit oil sales. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions risk, stricter due diligence on counterparties, and greater compliance burdens across trade, finance, and insurance.

Fiscal rules and investment capacity

Debate over reforming Germany’s debt brake shapes the scale and timing of infrastructure, climate, and security spending. Coalition tension creates policy uncertainty for public procurement, PPP pipelines, and tax/fee trajectories—affecting investment planning, demand outlook, and funding availability.

Regulatory uncertainty and state dominance

State and security-linked entities maintain outsized control across energy, ports, and strategic industries, while policy shifts can be abrupt under crisis conditions. Foreign investors face opaque licensing, localization demands, procurement favoritism, and elevated corruption and enforcement risk, especially in regulated sectors.

Taiwan Strait conflict premium

Elevated cross-strait military risk raises insurance, financing, and contingency costs for firms tied to Taiwan. Any blockade or escalation would disrupt shipping lanes, port throughput, and air cargo, cascading into global electronics, automotive, and industrial supply chains.

Ports and logistics continuity

Haifa and other gateways remain strategic chokepoints during conflict, with elevated missile/drone risks and tighter security protocols. Even when operations continue, businesses should plan for congestion, rerouting, and stricter cargo screening affecting import-dependent production.

Defence industrial strategy uncertainty

Procurement delays and unclear spending timelines are creating instability for defence primes and suppliers. The £1bn New Medium Helicopter decision remains pending, raising closure risk for Leonardo’s Yeovil plant (3,000 jobs) and a wider supply chain, affecting investment decisions.

Massive tariff refund backlog

Customs estimates ~$166bn of IEEPA duties across 53m entries from 330k importers must be refunded with interest, but systems may take ~45 days to enable processing. Timing of reimbursements affects working capital, pricing resets, and litigation exposure in trade programs.

Tax scrutiny of offshore structures

After the Tiger Global ruling, India’s tax department issued notices to multiple foreign VC/PE funds to test “substance” in Mauritius/Singapore and potentially apply GAAR. This raises effective tax and withholding risks for exits, restructurings, and cross-border capital flows before time-bar deadlines.

Ratificação do acordo Mercosul-UE

O Brasil ratificou o acordo Mercosul‑UE, abrindo caminho à aplicação provisória. Prevê zerar tarifas para 91% dos bens europeus em até 15 anos e 95% dos bens do Mercosul na UE em até 12 anos, com salvaguardas e cláusulas ambientais.

Critical minerals diversification push

China’s dual-use export controls affecting Japanese entities are accelerating diversification. Japan is in talks with India to develop Rajasthan hard-rock rare earths (1.29m tonnes REO identified) for magnet supply, changing sourcing strategies for EVs, electronics, and defense supply chains.

Monetary policy uncertainty and capital costs

Fed minutes show two-sided risk: inflation near 2.4–2.9% keeps cuts uncertain and raises tail risk of tighter policy if tariffs or energy shocks lift prices. Higher-for-longer rates affect U.S. demand, project finance, FX and inventory carrying costs globally.

Energy imports and distributed generation

Electricity imports hit a February record of 1.26 million MWh (+41% month-on-month), with reliance on Hungary and Slovakia, while firms invest in on-site generation. Expect higher operating costs, grid constraints, and rising demand for batteries, gas, and resilient power solutions.

Expropriation and forced localization risk

State intervention tools—temporary administration, asset seizures, exit approvals and “voluntary” contributions—raise the probability of value erosion for foreign owners. Governance risk elevates hurdle rates, discourages reinvestment, and complicates M&A, IP and joint ventures.

Port, rail, and inland logistics risk

U.S. import volumes are pressured by tariff uncertainty while inland risks rise from cargo theft, weather volatility, and potential CDL/driver eligibility changes. This can tighten trucking capacity, elevate distribution costs, and complicate just‑in‑time inventory strategies for importers and manufacturers.

Tech regulation via executive powers

Government amendments would give ministers broad powers to alter online safety and related laws via secondary legislation to respond to AI harms and potentially restrict under‑16 social media access. Business faces faster-moving compliance obligations, litigation risk, and uncertainty for platforms, advertisers and digital services.

Investment surge in digital infrastructure

BOI-backed projects in data centres and digital platforms are accelerating, including TikTok’s 270bn baht plan and 2025 data-centre applications of 728bn baht. Tighter localisation, energy and water rules raise compliance needs but deepen Thailand’s role in regional digital supply chains.

Renewables scale-up facing cost constraints

India is reassessing offshore wind tenders (1 GW) amid high steel costs and weak bidder appetite; floating solar remains ~700 MW commissioned despite large potential. Policy support, VGF and domestic manufacturing (ingots/wafers) will shape project bankability and clean-energy supply chains.

Critical minerals export controls

Beijing is tightening rare-earth and critical-mineral policy, improving export-control systems and using licensing to manage access. With China processing about 90% of rare earths, supply disruptions and price spikes can hit EV, defense, and electronics supply chains worldwide.

Regional conflict spillovers

Gaza and broader regional war dynamics elevate security and operational risks, including aviation disruptions and refugee-related fiscal strain. Firms should plan for intermittent border, shipping, and air-route interruptions, plus episodic social and political pressures that can affect permitting and enforcement.

Macro instability and FX controls

High inflation, currency volatility, and periodic import restrictions create unpredictable pricing and margin risk. Businesses face difficulties in repatriation, sudden licensing changes, and shortages of critical inputs, forcing overstocking and alternative sourcing strategies to maintain operations and service levels.

Geopolitical bargaining ahead of summits

US-China talks in Paris and a planned Trump–Xi meeting create short-term opportunities for tariff pauses and rare-earth supply stabilization, but outcomes remain uncertain. Businesses should plan for headline-driven volatility, fast policy reversals, and scenario-based contracting and hedging.

Defense Reindustrialization and Procurement Boom

Germany has become the world’s fourth-largest military spender (~$107bn), accelerating procurement and domestic capacity build-out (e.g., up to €2bn for loitering munitions). This boosts aerospace, electronics, and dual-use tech demand, while tightening export controls and security screening.

Fiscal consolidation and tax enforcement

Treasury is pursuing fiscal discipline while avoiding major rate hikes, leaning on stronger SARS enforcement, transfer-pricing scrutiny, and potential bracket creep. Multinationals should expect higher compliance costs, more audits, and tighter documentation requirements across cross‑border flows.

U.S. tariff and 301 volatility

Seoul faces renewed U.S. trade-policy uncertainty after IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs were struck down, pushing Washington toward Section 232/301 tools. Korea passed a $350bn U.S.-investment law, yet a new USTR 301 probe raises sectoral tariff risk.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

High‑stakes 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review occurs amid continuing U.S. sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and more, and threats of broader duties. Expect pricing, sourcing and compliance adjustments, higher contract risk, and pressure to diversify export markets.

EV incentives, China brand rise

Battery‑electric demand is muted despite a promised Umweltbonus up to €6,000 announced in January but only appliable from May, delaying private purchases. Commercial sales dominate (68.5%). Chinese brands reached 2.97% market share Jan–Feb 2026, intensifying competitive pressure.