Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 21, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation is dominated by rising tensions between the US and Ukraine, with President Trump criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accusing him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble". This comes as Trump seeks greater control of independent regulators and UK inflation rises to a 10-month high of 3% in January. Meanwhile, Hamas hands over the remains of four Israeli hostages, including two children, under a shaky ceasefire deal. In other news, Amazon takes creative control of the James Bond movie franchise.
US-Ukraine Tensions
The US-Ukraine relationship is under strain, with President Trump criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accusing him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble". This comes as Trump seeks greater control of independent regulators and UK inflation rises to a 10-month high of 3% in January.
Trump has accused Zelensky of being a "dictator" and blamed him for the war with Russia, claiming that Ukraine could have made a deal to avert the conflict. He has also questioned Zelensky's legitimacy and called for new elections in Ukraine, echoing one of Moscow's key demands.
Zelensky has pushed back on Trump's claims, accusing him of repeating Russian disinformation and defending his popularity, saying that he was elected with 73% of the vote in 2019. He has also criticised the US-Russia talks for excluding Kyiv, saying that any deal to end the war must be fair and involve European countries.
The spat between the two leaders has widened a personal rift and has major implications for efforts to end the conflict, which was triggered by Russia's invasion three years ago.
UK Inflation
UK inflation has risen to a 10-month high of 3% in January, surpassing expectations and highlighting a challenge for the Bank of England. This figure is likely to impact businesses and investors, as it may lead to higher interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth.
Hamas-Israel Ceasefire
Hamas has handed over the remains of four Israeli hostages, including two children, under a shaky ceasefire deal. This exchange comes after months of tense negotiations and marks a significant step towards a more permanent peace agreement.
The ceasefire deal is fragile and could be easily broken, especially given the ongoing tensions between Hamas and Israel. However, it represents a positive step towards a more permanent peace agreement and could provide a foundation for further negotiations.
Amazon's Creative Control of the James Bond Franchise
Amazon has taken creative control of the James Bond movie franchise, with producers Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli remaining co-owners under the new deal with Amazon MGM Studios. This move is likely to have a significant impact on the franchise, as Amazon has a different approach to content creation and distribution than the previous owners.
The move is likely to be welcomed by fans of the franchise, as Amazon has a strong track record in content creation and has the resources to invest in high-quality productions. However, it may also lead to changes in the franchise's creative direction, as Amazon has a different approach to content creation and distribution than the previous owners.
Conclusion
The global situation is dominated by rising tensions between the US and Ukraine, with President Trump criticising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accusing him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble". This comes as Trump seeks greater control of independent regulators and UK inflation rises to a 10-month high of 3% in January. Meanwhile, Hamas hands over the remains of four Israeli hostages, including two children, under a shaky ceasefire deal. In other news, Amazon takes creative control of the James Bond movie franchise.
Businesses and investors should monitor the situation in the US and Ukraine and be prepared for potential economic impacts from rising inflation in the UK. The Hamas-Israel ceasefire is a positive development, but businesses and investors should remain cautious given the fragile nature of the agreement. The Amazon-James Bond deal is likely to have a significant impact on the franchise, and businesses and investors should monitor Amazon's approach to content creation and distribution.
Further Reading:
A$AP Found Not Guilty In Gun Assault Trial
Amazon takes creative control of the James Bond movie franchise
Donald Trump Says Zelensky 'Dictator' Without Elections
Hamas hands over remains of four Israeli hostages including two children
Trump Brands Zelensky 'A Dictator'
Trump blames Ukraine over war with Russia, saying it could have made a deal
Trump calls Ukraine's Zelenskyy a ‘dictator,' escalating a spat between the leaders
Trump seeks greater control of independent regulators with his new executive order
Themes around the World:
Critical Minerals and Re-shoring Push
The U.S. is strengthening industrial policy around strategic inputs, including initiatives to secure critical minerals and expand domestic capacity. This supports investment in upstream and processing projects but raises permitting, local-content, and ESG scrutiny that can delay timelines and alter supplier selection.
Critical minerals bloc reshaping rules
The U.S. is pushing a preferential critical-minerals trade zone with price floors, reference pricing, and stockpiling (Project Vault), amid China’s dominant refining share. Canada is engaged but not always aligned, affecting mining investment, offtake deals, and EV/defence supply chains.
Fraud warnings pressure onboarding controls
Recurring FCA warnings on unauthorised online trading sites highlight persistent retail fraud. Regulated platforms face rising expectations on KYC, scam detection, customer communications and complaints handling, while banks and PSPs may tighten de-risking of higher-risk flows.
Critical Infrastructure and Energy Upgrades
Taiwan is investing in power grid upgrades, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure to support its expanding high-tech and data center sectors. These initiatives are vital for business continuity, supply chain reliability, and long-term competitiveness.
US-Israel Policy Divergence on Reconstruction
Tensions between the US and Israel over the pace and conditions of Gaza’s reconstruction and demilitarization are intensifying. Divergent priorities—US emphasis on rapid rebuilding versus Israel’s insistence on security preconditions—create policy uncertainty, complicating the operating environment for international businesses.
Auto sector restructuring under tariffs
U.S. auto tariffs and plant adjustments (including shift cuts and layoffs) are reshaping North American production footprints. Canada is introducing tariff-credit relief and incentives to retain assembly and parts capacity. Suppliers face demand volatility, localization pressures and renegotiated contracts.
Defense buildup reshapes industry
With defense spending reaching ~2% of GDP in FY2025 and election momentum for a more proactive posture, procurement, dual-use controls, and cyber/intelligence requirements are expanding. Opportunities rise for aerospace, electronics, and services, alongside higher regulatory scrutiny.
Technological Innovation in Battery Reuse
French firms and startups are advancing second-life battery technologies, including hydrometallurgical recycling and smart energy management. These innovations improve recovery rates, reduce environmental impact, and enhance competitiveness in international trade and investment.
AI and Technology Regulation Leadership
Canada is advancing AI and digital regulation to build trust, attract investment, and protect privacy. With over 3,000 AI firms and 800,000 digital sector jobs, legislative clarity and sovereign infrastructure are central to economic resilience and international tech partnerships.
Automotive Sector Crisis and Chinese Competition
The German automotive sector faces overcapacity, declining exports, and fierce competition from Chinese EVs. Structural adjustments, supply chain localization, and rapid technological change are reshaping the industry, with job losses and investment risks affecting the broader manufacturing ecosystem.
Outbound investment screening expansion
U.S. rules restricting outbound investments into sensitive sectors (semiconductors, AI, quantum and related capabilities) are tightening board-level approvals and reporting. Multinationals must redesign China exposure, restructure JV/VC activity, and document controls across affiliates and funds.
CFIUS and data-driven deal risk
Foreign acquisitions involving sensitive data and systemic assets face heightened CFIUS exposure, as seen in potential scrutiny of ETS/TOEFL due to personal data concentration and institutional role. Cross-border investors should plan for mitigation, deal delays, and valuation haircuts.
State-ownership shift and privatization pipeline
Cairo is signaling greater private-sector space via the State Ownership Policy, IPO/asset-sale plans, and “Golden License” fast-tracking. Opportunities are rising in ports, logistics, manufacturing, and services, but execution risk persists around valuation, governance, and military/state-linked competition in key sectors.
Supply-chain bloc formation pressures
US-led efforts to build critical-minerals “preferential zones” with reference prices and tariffs signal broader de-risking blocs. Companies may face bifurcated supply chains, dual standards, and requalification of suppliers as trade rules diverge between China-centric and allied networks.
Sanctions and secondary tariff enforcement
U.S. sanctions policy is broadening beyond entity listings toward “secondary” trade pressure, increasing exposure for banks, shippers, and manufacturers tied to Iran/Russia-linked trade flows. Businesses face higher screening costs, disrupted payment channels, and potential retaliatory measures from partners.
European Strategic Autonomy Push
France is leading calls for greater European strategic autonomy in trade, defense, and technology, especially in response to US economic coercion and global instability. This shift impacts investment strategies, regulatory risk, and the future of transatlantic business cooperation.
Macroeconomic slowdown, FX sensitivity
The NBU cut the key rate to 15% while warning war damage reduces GDP growth to about 1.8% and pressures the balance of payments. Elevated uncertainty affects pricing, payment terms, working-capital needs, and currency hedging for importers and exporters.
US-Mexico Security and Border Cooperation
Security concerns—drug trafficking, border management, and cartel violence—remain central in US-Mexico relations. High-level diplomatic engagement is ongoing, with both governments prioritizing cooperation to safeguard cross-border trade and supply chain stability amid persistent risks.
Strategic ports and infrastructure sovereignty
Moves to return the Port of Darwin to Australian control highlight rising “sovereignty screening” over logistics assets. Investors in ports, airports, energy and telecoms should expect tougher national-interest tests, deal delays, and possible renegotiation or compensation disputes impacting valuations.
Persistent Supply Chain Disruptions
UK supply chains face ongoing disruptions from geopolitical shocks, logistics bottlenecks, and rising shipping costs. These challenges increase operational risks and require businesses to enhance resilience and diversify sourcing strategies.
Strategic Contest Over Port of Darwin
Australia’s push to reclaim the Chinese-leased Port of Darwin has provoked threats of economic retaliation from Beijing. The dispute highlights the intersection of national security and trade, with potential sanctions and investment restrictions affecting broader Australia-China commercial relations.
Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy
Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.
Macroeconomic Stability and Policy Risks
Consistent 5% growth and low inflation underpin Indonesia’s economic outlook, but recent market turmoil, currency depreciation, and political appointments have heightened concerns over central bank independence, fiscal expansion, and the credibility of long-term investment strategies.
Escalating US-China Trade Tensions
Ongoing US tariffs and Chinese countermeasures, including export controls and sanctions, are reshaping global trade flows. These tensions drive supply chain diversification, increase compliance risks, and force businesses to adapt strategies for both market access and operational resilience.
Textile rebound but cost competitiveness
Textile exports rebounded to a four-year high in January 2026 ($1.74bn, +28% YoY), helped by lower industrial power tariffs. Sustainability depends on input costs, logistics efficiency, and upgrading product mix as competitors gain better market access and buyers demand faster, cleaner production.
Labor Reform: Forty-Hour Workweek
Mexico is phasing in a 40-hour workweek by 2030, with gradual reductions starting in 2026. The reform aims to improve productivity and worker welfare, but may increase costs for businesses, especially SMEs, and require enhanced labor inspection and compliance.
Digital Sovereignty and Cybersecurity
France has launched a national cybersecurity strategy and a Digital Resilience Index, aiming to reduce technological dependencies and safeguard economic sovereignty. New regulations and investment in digital infrastructure will affect compliance, risk management, and competitive positioning for international firms.
Critical minerals de-risking drive
Budget measures and diplomacy intensify to reduce reliance on China, including rare earth corridors across coastal states and customs-duty relief for processing equipment. India is also negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, reshaping sourcing strategies.
Sanctions and secondary-risk pressure
U.S. sanctions enforcement remains a major commercial variable, including tariff penalties linked to third-country Russia oil trade. The U.S. removed a 25% additional duty on Indian goods after policy assurances, signaling that supply chains touching sanctioned actors face sudden tariff, banking, and insurance shocks.
Auto sector reshoring and EV policy shift
Ottawa’s new auto strategy responds to U.S. auto tariffs and competitive Chinese EV inflows by combining tariff credits, renewed EV incentives and stricter emissions standards while scrapping the prior sales mandate. Impacts include location decisions, supplier localization, and model allocation.
Tightening tech sanctions ecosystem
US and allied export controls and enforcement actions—illustrated by a $252m penalty over unlicensed shipments to SMIC—raise legal and operational risk for firms with China-facing semiconductor supply chains. Expect stricter end-use checks, routing scrutiny, and deal delays.
US Section 232 chip tariffs
US semiconductor tariff planning and AI-chip measures create uncertainty on chips and derivative products. Korea may need “investment-for-exemptions” negotiations similar to Taiwan’s offset model, influencing where fabs, packaging, and R&D are located and affecting compliance, pricing, and market access strategies.
Critical Mineral Diversification Strategy
Japanese firms are rapidly diversifying supply chains for minerals like gallium and rare earths, securing new sources in Kazakhstan and Australia. These efforts aim to reduce strategic vulnerabilities, ensure manufacturing continuity, and stabilize high-tech sectors amid global supply shocks.
Political Stability Amid Global Tensions
Brazil’s diversified international relations and diplomatic tradition help mitigate risks from external interference, notably from the US. Political stability and global leadership ambitions support a favorable environment for long-term investment and trade strategies.
Afghan border closures disrupt trade
Intermittent closures and tensions with Afghanistan are hitting border commerce, with KP reporting a 53% revenue drop tied to disrupted routes. Cross-border traders face delays, spoilage, and contract risk; Afghan moves to curb imports from Pakistan further threaten regional distribution channels.
Energy Transition and Power Security
South Africa’s move from chronic power shortages to improved energy stability—driven by Eskom reforms, renewables expansion, and regional cooperation—has reduced loadshedding, but challenges remain around grid modernization, cyber risks, and affordable electricity for industry.