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Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 20, 2025

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh to end the war in Ukraine, without the presence of Ukraine or European officials. US President Donald Trump has criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections and accused him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble", while Zelenskyy has accused Trump of succumbing to Russian disinformation and repeating Kremlin narratives. Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has promised to sell off his business holdings and supported Trump's hardline trade policies, including plans to impose import taxes on US trading partners. Mexico has threatened to sue Google over the "Gulf of America" name change in its map service following Trump's order.

US-Russia Peace Talks

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh to end the war in Ukraine, without the presence of Ukraine or European officials. US President Donald Trump has criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections and accused him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble", while Zelenskyy has accused Trump of succumbing to Russian disinformation and repeating Kremlin narratives. US and Russian officials have agreed to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war and restore American-Russian relations. European governments have demanded a role in peace talks, alarmed at the possibility of being sidelined from negotiations that will determine the future security of the continent.

The US and Russia have held the highest-level talks to date between the two former Cold War foes, without the presence of Ukraine or European officials. US President Donald Trump has criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections and accused him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble", while Zelenskyy has accused Trump of succumbing to Russian disinformation and repeating Kremlin narratives. US and Russian officials have agreed to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war and restore American-Russian relations. European governments have demanded a role in peace talks, alarmed at the possibility of being sidelined from negotiations that will determine the future security of the continent.

The US and Russia have held the highest-level talks to date between the two former Cold War foes, without the presence of Ukraine or European officials. US President Donald Trump has criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections and accused him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble", while Zelenskyy has accused Trump of succumbing to Russian disinformation and repeating Kremlin narratives. US and Russian officials have agreed to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war and restore American-Russian relations. European governments have demanded a role in peace talks, alarmed at the possibility of being sidelined from negotiations that will determine the future security of the continent.

The US and Russia have held the highest-level talks to date between the two former Cold War foes, without the presence of Ukraine or European officials. US President Donald Trump has criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections and accused him of living in a Russian "disinformation bubble", while Zelenskyy has accused Trump of succumbing to Russian disinformation and repeating Kremlin narratives. US and Russian officials have agreed to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war and <co: 1,3


Further Reading:

Donald Trump calls Zelensky ‘a dictator’ after Ukraine’s leader accuses him of living in ‘disinformation space’

Mexico Threatens to Sue Google Over ‘Gulf of America’ Change

Musk boasts about ‘thrashing bureaucracy’ as Trump expands power grab over independent agencies – US politics live

Senate confirms Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary, a key role for Trump’s trade agenda

Trump Brands Zelensky 'A Dictator'

Trump blames Ukraine over war with Russia, saying it could have made a deal

Trump calls Ukraine's Zelenskyy a ‘dictator,' escalating a spat between the leaders

Trump’s new world: US and Russia begin Ukraine peace talks

US and Russia meet without Ukraine for first talks on ending war

Zelensky says Trump lives in ‘disinformation space’

Themes around the World:

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Expansion of Ro-Ro Shipping

Egypt's launch of a Ro-Ro shipping line between Damietta and Italy aims to boost exports to Europe. This initiative is expected to reduce shipping costs and transit times for perishable goods, enhancing trade opportunities and positioning Egypt as a logistics hub, which is crucial for agricultural and industrial exports.

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Impact of Gender Pay Gap

Despite legislative efforts, France's gender pay gap remains at 22%, with women earning 4% less than men for the same roles. This disparity affects workforce dynamics and could influence corporate policies and investment in gender equality initiatives, impacting overall business operations and employee satisfaction.

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Impact of US Tariffs

The potential implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US poses risks to economic growth and investment attractiveness. As the US economy faces recession risks, the implications for trade relations with Russia could lead to increased volatility in international markets, affecting supply chains and investment strategies.

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Conditional Approval of CFT and Palermo

Iran's Expediency Council's consideration of the CFT and Palermo conventions could facilitate its integration into the global financial system. This move may enhance international banking relations, impacting trade and investment flows.

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Tax Policy Revisions for SMEs

The Vietnamese government is considering tax reductions for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to support their growth and sustainability. This move is expected to enhance the business environment, encouraging local entrepreneurship and potentially leading to job creation and economic diversification.

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Iran-Eurasia Free Trade Agreement

The implementation of a Free Trade Agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union is expected to enhance trade relations and open new markets for Iranian goods. This development could attract foreign investment and diversify Iran's trade partnerships, crucial for economic resilience.

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Fiscal Risks and Political Instability

Brazil faces significant fiscal risks as President Lula's government shifts towards populist policies, undermining fiscal discipline. The potential departure of key coalition partners raises concerns about legislative stability, impacting investor confidence and economic growth. With inflation pressures and a rising national debt, the fiscal outlook remains precarious, influencing international trade and investment strategies.

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Strategic Partnerships with Mauritius

India's strategic partnership with Mauritius is vital for enhancing trade and investment flows, particularly as Mauritius serves as a gateway to Africa. The Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECPA) and India's support in diversifying Mauritius' economy are crucial for strengthening bilateral ties and countering China's influence in the region.

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Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts

The ongoing trade war, particularly with China, has led to retaliatory tariffs affecting U.S. agricultural exports. This escalation threatens to disrupt supply chains and increase costs for consumers, potentially leading to a recession. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates investment strategies and market stability, impacting various sectors including agriculture and manufacturing.

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EU Defence Sovereignty Initiatives

The EU's €800 billion plan to enhance defence sovereignty is a response to geopolitical threats, particularly from Russia. This initiative could reshape investment landscapes in defence industries across member states, driving demand for military technology and infrastructure development, while also influencing international trade relations.

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State-Owned Enterprises Financial Crisis

Four state-owned construction companies are nearing bankruptcy due to mismanagement and unsustainable debt levels from infrastructure projects. This crisis threatens investor confidence, could lead to mass layoffs, and may destabilize the construction sector, impacting overall economic growth and foreign investment in Indonesia.

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British Airways' Market Strategy

British Airways is revamping its first-class offerings to regain market share. This initiative may influence the luxury travel sector and impact competition among airlines, affecting investment strategies in hospitality and travel-related businesses in the UK.

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Human Rights Concerns

Ongoing human rights violations, including arbitrary detentions and political repression, pose risks for businesses regarding compliance and ethical operations. Companies may face reputational risks and pressure from stakeholders to ensure responsible business practices in such an environment.

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Escalating Trade War with China

The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China poses significant risks to global supply chains and economic stability. Tariffs on Chinese goods have led to retaliatory measures, impacting U.S. agricultural exports and heightening market volatility. This geopolitical tension could result in a prolonged economic downturn, affecting investment strategies and consumer confidence.

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U.S.-China Trade War Impacts

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has prompted Chinese manufacturers to relocate to Indonesia's Kendal SEZ, benefiting from tax incentives. This shift could enhance Indonesia's manufacturing capabilities and attract foreign investment, but also raises concerns about dependency on external economic conditions.

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Sustainability in Supply Chains

Sustainability has become a core business function, influencing supply chain strategies. Companies are increasingly prioritizing sustainable practices to enhance resilience and meet regulatory pressures, which may affect operational costs and competitive positioning in the global market.

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Resilient Supply Chains Development

India's focus on building reliable and resilient supply chains is crucial amid global uncertainties. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar emphasized the need for cooperation in health, food, and energy security, highlighting the importance of diversifying supply chains to mitigate risks associated with over-concentration in specific geographies.

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Market Volatility from Tariff Policies

Recent tariff announcements have led to significant market volatility, particularly in tech stocks and the automotive sector. Investors are increasingly cautious as uncertainty surrounding trade policies impacts corporate earnings and economic forecasts. This environment necessitates adaptive investment strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential recessions and inflationary pressures.

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Retail Sector Confidence Decline

Brazil's retail sector is experiencing declining confidence due to high interest rates and inflation, with the Business Confidence Index dropping significantly. This decline affects consumer spending and investment intentions, posing challenges for businesses reliant on retail performance. The economic environment necessitates strategic adjustments to navigate these pressures and sustain growth.

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Informal Economy Viability Concerns

Concerns about the sustainability of informal trading, such as spaza shops, highlight the challenges of entrepreneurship in South Africa. This sector's struggles reflect broader economic issues, impacting employment and economic growth, which are vital for attracting investment.

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Peso Volatility and Currency Risks

The Mexican peso's fluctuations against the U.S. dollar, influenced by tariff threats and U.S. monetary policy, create currency risk for businesses. Companies must implement hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses from exchange rate volatility.

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U.S. Tariff Threats Impacting Investment

The looming threat of 25% tariffs on Mexican exports by the U.S. has led to significant uncertainty in investment strategies. President Sheinbaum acknowledged that companies are pausing investment plans due to tariff uncertainties, which could hinder Mexico's economic growth and nearshoring potential.

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Critical Minerals Acquisition

China's aggressive investments in Africa's critical minerals sector, particularly cobalt and lithium, are essential for its high-tech industries. This strategy not only secures resource supply chains but also positions China competitively in the global market, influencing international trade dynamics.

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Market Dynamics of Australian Supermarkets

The Australian supermarket sector, dominated by Coles and Woolworths, faces scrutiny over pricing practices and competition. Regulatory findings indicate limited competition, which could lead to higher consumer prices and impact supply chain dynamics for food products.

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Geopolitical Dynamics with G7

China's strained relations with the G7 over territorial disputes and trade practices could lead to increased geopolitical tensions. This dynamic may affect international trade policies and influence foreign investment decisions.

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Human Rights and LGBTIQ+ Advocacy

With the US withdrawing support for LGBTIQ+ rights in Africa, South Africa is positioned to lead advocacy efforts. This responsibility could enhance its reputation as a human rights champion, attracting international partnerships and investment in social initiatives, while also addressing domestic human rights challenges.

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Digital Economy and Innovation

Vietnam is prioritizing the digital economy, urging foreign firms to invest in AI, big data, and digital finance. This focus on technological innovation aims to modernize Vietnam's economic landscape, improve productivity, and integrate local businesses into global digital supply chains, fostering sustainable economic growth.

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US-South Africa Diplomatic Tensions

The expulsion of South Africa's ambassador by the US highlights deteriorating diplomatic relations, driven by accusations of human rights abuses and contentious land policies. This tension could impact trade agreements and foreign investment, as US firms reassess their engagement with South Africa amidst a backdrop of geopolitical shifts.

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Digital Economy Investment Opportunities

The establishment of a National Crypto Council is proposed to harness the potential of digital currencies in Pakistan. This initiative could attract foreign investment and foster innovation in the digital economy, aligning Pakistan with global financial trends.

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Interest Rate Cuts Anticipated

J.P. Morgan forecasts a 6% reduction in Egypt's interest rates, driven by declining inflation rates. This monetary policy shift could stimulate investment and consumer spending, enhancing economic activity and improving the overall business environment in Egypt.

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Transatlantic Trade Dynamics

The ongoing transatlantic rift may lead to a re-evaluation of trade relationships between Europe and the US. UK businesses should prepare for shifts in trade policies that could affect tariffs, market access, and overall economic collaboration.

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Political Instability and Business Climate

Ongoing political turmoil in South Korea, marked by leadership changes and public protests, poses risks to the business environment. Investors may face uncertainties regarding policy continuity and regulatory frameworks, influencing investment decisions and operational strategies in the region.

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Impact of Gender Pay Gap

Despite legislative efforts, France's gender pay gap persists, with women earning 22% less than men. This disparity affects workforce participation and economic productivity, posing challenges for businesses aiming for equitable practices and potentially influencing investment decisions focused on corporate social responsibility.

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Brazil-Vietnam Trade Relations

The upcoming state visit of Brazil's President aims to strengthen trade ties, with a target to increase bilateral trade to $10 billion by 2025. This partnership is crucial for diversifying Vietnam's trade relationships and enhancing economic cooperation with Latin America.

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Infrastructure Development Challenges

Africa faces a R250-billion infrastructure crisis, with South Africa's engineering sector addressing preventable failures through collaboration and advanced methodologies. The focus on infrastructure resilience is essential for attracting investment and ensuring sustainable economic growth, particularly as the continent expands its manufacturing capabilities.

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LGBTIQ+ Rights and US Funding Cuts

The withdrawal of US support for LGBTIQ+ rights initiatives in South Africa poses a significant setback for health and human rights advocacy. This could lead to increased vulnerability for marginalized communities, impacting social stability and potentially affecting international perceptions of South Africa.