Stricter FDI screening and economic security

France is an active user of foreign investment controls under EU-wide economic security priorities, with faster approvals for most deals but deeper scrutiny for sensitive tech, energy, data and defence. Transaction timelines, remedies, and governance requirements can materially affect M&A execution.

Shadow-fleet oil logistics disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on aging “dark fleet” tactics—AIS gaps, reflagging, ship-to-ship transfers—often staged near Malaysia before reaching China. Recent interdictions, including India’s seizure of three Iran-linked tankers, signal higher detention, demurrage, and cargo contamination risks.

China risk: trade and coercion

Government rhetoric highlights “coercion” concerns and aims to reduce dependence on specific countries, including critical minerals such as rare earths. Businesses should anticipate tougher export controls, supplier diversification mandates, and higher geopolitical disruption risk in China-facing sales, sourcing, and logistics.

Kalkınma Yolu: Irak bağlantılı tedarik

Irak-Türkiye-Katar-BAE ortak Kalkınma Yolu, Büyük Fav Limanı’ndan Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa’ya kara/demir yolu taşımayı hedefliyor. Tamamlanma ve güvenlik riskleri sürse de, alternatif rota ve depolama/dağıtım yatırımlarına orta vadede ivme verebilir.

Data-center and digital infrastructure boom

Vietnam is attracting multi‑billion‑dollar data-center investments, including projects targeting up to USD 2bn in Ho Chi Minh City, as regional cloud demand surges. Businesses should plan for permitting complexity, power and water availability, and evolving cybersecurity and data-governance requirements.

Cybersécurité et conformité données sensibles

Une fuite touchant 11 à 15 millions de patients via un prestataire logiciel rappelle la montée du risque cyber et RGPD. Impacts: audits fournisseurs, obligations de notification, durcissement CNIL, hausse des coûts de sécurité et risques réputationnels pour acteurs santé et services numériques.

Electricity market reform accelerates

Eskom unbundling and rollout of a wholesale power market (SAWEM) are advancing, with more private PPAs and wheeling. Improved reliability lowers operating risk, but tariff-setting, grid access, and regulatory capacity remain key uncertainties for investors.

Post-Brexit border checks gaps

MPs warn post‑Brexit sanitary checks are being bypassed: “drive‑bys” of flagged meat/dairy consignments rose to 18% in Nov 2025 from 8% in Aug. Weak enforcement raises disease and fraud risks, potentially triggering tougher inspections, delays and higher logistics costs.

FX instability and import constraints

Sanctions and limited banking access strain hard-currency availability, driving rial volatility and complicating letters of credit, repatriation, and supplier payments. Importers face higher working-capital needs, sporadic shortages of inputs and spare parts, and increased reliance on intermediaries and barter-like structures.

Local content rules remain decisive

TKDN requirements continue for government procurement, with a 40% minimum (TKDN+BMP) under industry rules, despite trade‑deal debate. Multinationals in telecom, electronics, and infrastructure must localize sourcing, assembly, or partnerships to qualify for projects.

Foreign investor exit and asset security

Western firms continue exiting but face frozen funds, forced discounts, and regulatory hurdles; selective releases occur under tough conditions. Risks include temporary administration, unpredictable approvals, and limited repatriation routes, raising the bar for remaining investors’ governance and downside protection.

Climate shocks and supply disruptions

Floods and extreme weather increasingly affect agriculture output, transport, and industrial continuity. IMF RSF climate financing signals policy focus, but near-term exposure remains high for cotton, food inputs, and infrastructure reliability—raising the value of diversified sourcing and resilient warehousing.

IMF program and fiscal tightening

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews dominate policy, with a roughly $1.2bn tranche linked to tax collection, spending restraint, and governance benchmarks. Slippages risk renewed FX pressure, import curbs, delayed payments, and weaker investor confidence.

Tax reform and housing incentives

Budget deliberations flag reforms to negative gearing and the 50% capital-gains-tax discount (potentially cut to ~33% for housing). Shifts could reprice residential assets, affect build-to-rent returns, and alter capital allocation for inbound investors and developers.

US-Zölle und Handelsumlenkung

US-Protektionspolitik dämpft deutsche Exporte in die USA (2025: -9,4% auf €146,2 Mrd.) und kann chinesische Warenströme nach Europa umlenken. Das erhöht Preisdruck, Antidumping-Risiken und Planungsunsicherheit für Investitionen, insbesondere in Auto-, Maschinenbau- und Stahlwertschöpfung.

Large infrastructure spend and PPP pipeline

Government plans about R1.07 trillion over three years for transport, energy and water, with revised PPP rules and infrastructure bonds. This creates opportunities for EPC, finance and suppliers, but execution risk, procurement disputes, and governance capacity remain key constraints.

Infrastructure capex and PPP pipeline

Government plans roughly R1.07 trillion over three years for transport, energy, and water, seeking to crowd in private capital via the Budget Facility for Infrastructure. Opportunities expand for EPC, finance, and O&M firms, but permitting, municipal capacity, and governance execution remain constraints.

Reforma tributária IBS/CBS em transição

A transição para IBS e CBS segue com 2026 “educativo”: destaque em nota fiscal de CBS 0,9% e IBS 0,1% sem recolhimento efetivo, e sem penalidades até após publicação de regulamento. Impacta ERP, preços, contratos, compliance fiscal e fluxo de caixa.

Critical minerals reshoring push

Australia is leveraging tax credits, strategic reserves and partner deals to build ex‑China supply chains in lithium and antimony. Closures like Kemerton show cost gaps versus China, shaping investment incentives, offtake contracts, and processing-location decisions.

Automotive Export Erosion to China

German car exports to China fell about 33% in 2025; cars and parts dropped below €14bn in 2024 from nearly €30bn in 2022. Intensifying China price wars, EV transition costs, and external tariffs raise restructuring risk across suppliers and logistics networks.

Foreign investor pullback and exits

FDI has weakened materially and regulators report numerous foreign company closures, signalling higher perceived operating risk. Drivers include FX trapping concerns, taxation uncertainty, and slow growth. For entrants, expect higher hurdle rates, tighter partner due diligence, and preference for asset-light models.

Logistics and rail megaproject buildup

Government is restructuring Vietnam Railways into a national railway group to deliver major corridors including North–South high-speed rail and Lao Cai–Hanoi–Hai Phong links. Over time this can cut inland logistics costs, but construction timelines and land issues add execution risk.

Tighter domestic logistics regulation

New rules mandate registration of Russian freight forwarders on the GosLog registry and technical integration with security services, including multi‑year data storage on Russian servers. Compliance costs may squeeze small providers, alter competition with “friendly” foreign firms, and add operational overhead.

USMCA review and tariff risk

2026 USMCA/CUSMA review raises North American market-access uncertainty. Even with broad exemptions, U.S. Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, autos and other products persist, and Washington signals baseline tariffs. This pressures pricing, sourcing, and investment timing.

IMF-led stabilization and conditionality

IMF reviews unlocked about $2.3bn, citing improved macro stability from tight policy and exchange-rate flexibility, but warning reforms are uneven and divestment is slower. Program conditionality will shape fiscal, tax and SOE policy, affecting market access, payment risk, and investor confidence.

Cross-strait grey-zone escalation

China is expanding grey-zone pressure, including drone operations using false transponder identities and broader coercion noted by Taiwan’s NSB. Elevated military and aviation/maritime ambiguity increases logistics, insurance and contingency-planning costs for shipping, aviation and data connectivity.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing imposed dual-use export bans on 20 Japanese entities and tightened licensing for 20 more, with extraterritorial restrictions on China-origin items. This raises compliance, sourcing, and contract-friction risks across aerospace, machinery, autos, and electronics supply chains.

Critical minerals and rare-earth push

Budget 2026 launched rare-earth corridors (Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) and a ₹7,280‑crore magnet incentive to cut reliance on China, which supplies over 45% of India’s rare-earth needs; faster approvals and processing capacity reshape EV, electronics, defence supply chains.

Clean-tech industrial subsidies scale-up

The European Commission approved a €1.1bn French tax-credit scheme to expand cleantech manufacturing capacity through 2028. This boosts incentives for batteries, renewables components and hydrogen supply chains, but may heighten state-aid competition and localization requirements.

China de-risking and market access

Germany’s China exposure remains high: 2025 bilateral trade totaled €251.8bn, while firms report rising intervention and unequal competition. De-risking efforts and tougher screening can reshape sourcing for critical inputs, force localisation choices, and raise geopolitical contingency planning costs.

Gulf-backed mega projects surge

Large Gulf investments (e.g., Ras al-Hekma) and additional multi‑billion deals are boosting liquidity and construction pipelines. Opportunities rise in real estate, ports, and services, but execution risk persists around land, procurement transparency, and crowding-out local private competitors.

Industrial localization incentives expansion

A 2026 decree broadens Investment Law Article 11 incentives, offering 50% (Sector A) or 30% (Sector B) tax deductions on investment costs over seven years, capped at 80% of paid-in capital. It targets autos/EVs, appliances components, chemicals, and SCZone.

Remittances resilience and fragility

Remittances rose to $3.46bn in Jan 2026 (+15.4% YoY) and $23.2bn in 7MFY26 (+11.3%). However, Middle East conflict scenarios could cut inflows 10–15% (≈$3bn), pressuring the rupee, consumption and import demand forecasting.

Risque budgétaire et fiscalité entreprises

La consolidation budgétaire reste contrainte par un Parlement fragmenté. Fitch maintient la note A+ mais pointe dette élevée; déficit attendu ~4,9% du PIB en 2026. Surtaxe exceptionnelle sur bénéfices prolongée, concentrée sur grands groupes, affectant plans d’investissement.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement tightening

EU and Ukrainian sanctions broaden to banks, metals, chemicals, maritime services and shadow-fleet actors, while enforcement targets third-country facilitators. Businesses must strengthen screening, end-use controls and maritime due diligence to avoid secondary exposure and shipment delays.

Commodity export surge, value-add push

Merchandise exports reportedly rose ~55% to $13.43bn in 2025, driven by gold ($6.40bn) and coffee ($2.46bn). Opportunities grow in processing and logistics, but earnings concentration and provenance concerns heighten compliance, reputational, and FX volatility risks.