Return to Homepage
Image

Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 19, 2025

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to end the war in Ukraine and restore relations, without the presence of Ukraine or European allies. This meeting is a significant shift in US foreign policy and raises concerns about the future of European security and the potential for a peace deal that may not be favourable to Ukraine and European allies. British couple Craig and Lindsay Foreman have been charged with spying in Iran, arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps last month. Mexico is threatening to sue Google over the "Gulf of America" name change in its map service following President Donald Trump's order. India and Qatar have formalised a new strategic partnership, with Qatar announcing a $10 billion investment in India, covering sectors such as hospitality, food security, technology, and logistics. India and the US are dealing with the arrival of 112 illegal Indian immigrants in Amritsar, transported in a US military plane.

US-Russia Peace Talks: Implications for Ukraine and Europe

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to end the war in Ukraine and restore relations, without the presence of Ukraine or European allies. This meeting is a significant shift in US foreign policy and raises concerns about the future of European security and the potential for a peace deal that may not be favourable to Ukraine and European allies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh to discuss a potential settlement to the nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine, despite the absence of Ukrainian officials. The meeting is expected to focus on thawing relations between the two countries, whose ties have fallen to their lowest level in decades. It is meant to pave the way for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kyiv's absence at the talks has rankled many Ukrainians, and European allies have expressed concerns they are being sidelined. French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to work with all Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians to achieve a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin has repeatedly expressed readiness for peace talks, but a comprehensive settlement is impossible without considering security issues in Europe.

The meeting in Riyadh highlights Saudi Arabia's role in diplomacy, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeking to be a major diplomatic player and burnishing his reputation after the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia has maintained close relations with Russia throughout the war in Ukraine, both through the OPEC+ oil cartel and diplomatically. Saudi Arabia has also helped in prisoner negotiations and hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for an Arab League summit in 2023.

The recent US diplomatic blitz on the war has sent Ukraine and key allies scrambling to ensure a seat at the table, amid concerns that Washington and Moscow could press ahead with a deal that won't be favourable to them. Kyiv's participation in such talks was a bedrock of US policy under Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, whose administration also led international efforts to isolate Russia over the war. White House officials have pushed back against the notion that Europe has been left out, noting that administration officials have spoken to several leaders.

Kyiv has insisted it will not accept the outcome of any discussions if Kyiv does not have a say in its own future. European allies have expressed concerns they are being sidelined, with France calling an emergency meeting of European Union countries and the UK to discuss the war. Sir Keir Starmer has called for the US to provide a 'backstop' for any deal in Ukraine, and European leaders have <co: 10,


Further Reading:

British couple charged with spying in Iran

Europe and Zelensky excluded from Ukraine peace talks as US and Russia gather in Saudi Arabia; Germany leaves summit over concerns of Trump’s commitment to the Baltics

Mexico Threatens to Sue Google Over ‘Gulf of America’ Change

PM Modi's Efforts Strengthen India-Qatar Ties As Both Nations Announce Strategic Partnership

Russian delegation arrives in Saudi Arabia for talks with U.S. to end Ukraine war

Third Batch Of 112 Illegal Indian Immigrants Lands In Amritsar In US Military Plane

Top Russian, US officials are discussing improving ties and ending the Ukraine war — without Kyiv

Trump’s new world: US and Russia begin Ukraine peace talks

US and Russia meet without Ukraine for first talks on ending war

Themes around the World:

Flag

Defense spending reshapes industry

The National Assembly approved a defense trajectory rising by €36 billion to €436 billion for 2024-2030, lifting annual spending to €76.3 billion or 2.5% of GDP by 2030. This supports aerospace, munitions, drones, cybersecurity, and strategic supply-chain localization.

Flag

Skilled Labor and Migration Dependence

Demographic decline and retirements are deepening Germany’s labor shortages across healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, and services. Business groups say the economy needs roughly 300,000 net migrants annually, making immigration policy, integration capacity, and social climate increasingly material to operating continuity and expansion.

Flag

Commodity and External Shock Exposure

Brazil’s trade outlook remains highly sensitive to oil, fertilizer, and broader commodity volatility linked to external conflicts. Higher energy prices are feeding inflation and freight costs, while commodity dependence simultaneously supports exports, creating mixed implications for supply chains and trade competitiveness.

Flag

Shekel strength hurting exporters

The shekel’s sharp appreciation is undermining export competitiveness by reducing foreign-currency earnings when converted into local costs. Economists warn sustained currency strength could compress margins, delay hiring and investment, and weaken industrial and technology exporters serving US and European markets.

Flag

Critical Minerals Gain Momentum

Ukraine is positioning itself as a faster-to-market supplier of critical raw materials for Europe, supported by legacy geological data, privatization plans, and export-credit financing. Private investment already exceeds €150 million, strengthening prospects in lithium, graphite, titanium, and rare-earth value chains.

Flag

Export Diversification Beyond United States

Canada is accelerating efforts to reduce U.S. dependence as non-U.S. exports rose roughly 36% since 2024 and the U.S. share of exports fell from 73% to 66.7%. This supports resilience, but requires new logistics, market access and compliance capabilities.

Flag

War-Damaged Energy System

Sustained Russian strikes on substations, gas facilities and other energy assets continue to disrupt power reliability and industrial output. Reported damage is about $25 billion, with recovery costs above $90 billion, raising operating costs, backup-power needs and investment risk.

Flag

Energy Shock Pressures Operations

The Iran conflict has lifted Brent by about 70%, pushed US gasoline above $4 per gallon, and raised transport and input costs across sectors. Higher fuel and power expenses are squeezing margins, disrupting budgeting assumptions, and increasing logistics and distribution costs for businesses.

Flag

Mining And Corridor Ambitions Grow

Saudi policymakers are pushing mining, industrial supply chains, and new regional corridors, including stronger cooperation with Turkey and discussion of rail connectivity. For international firms, this points to future opportunities in critical minerals, processing, transport infrastructure, and cross-border manufacturing integration.

Flag

China Capital And Partnerships

Saudi Arabia is deepening commercial ties with China through infrastructure awards and PIF’s new Shanghai office. This expands financing and contractor options for foreign firms, but also increases competitive pressure, partner-screening needs and exposure to geopolitical balancing between major powers.

Flag

Trade Rerouting Through Third Markets

As bilateral frictions persist, Chinese trade and production are increasingly routed via Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other connector economies. This may reduce direct exposure but increases compliance, origin verification, customs scrutiny, and investment reassessment across regional manufacturing networks.

Flag

Trade Diversification Beyond China

Australia is accelerating trade diversification through agreements with India, the UAE, Indonesia, Peru, the UK and the EU. The strategy reflects lessons from past Chinese coercive tariffs and newer US trade frictions, reducing single-market exposure while opening alternative export and sourcing channels.

Flag

Semiconductor Controls Hit Supply

New US restrictions on chip-tool exports to China’s Hua Hong and Huali widen technology controls across advanced manufacturing. Equipment suppliers face potential multibillion-dollar sales losses, while electronics, AI and industrial firms must prepare for tighter licensing, compliance burdens and supply fragmentation.

Flag

FDI Diversification into Industry

Turkey attracted 475 announced greenfield FDI projects in 2025 worth $21.1 billion and 47,251 jobs, with strength in manufacturing, communications, automotive, logistics, electronics and renewables. This broadening pipeline supports supplier entry, industrial partnerships and medium-term capacity growth despite macro volatility.

Flag

Sovereign Electronics Push Intensifies

Geopolitical disruptions and regional conflict are sharpening India’s focus on domestic electronics and semiconductor capability. Industry leaders are urging stronger design incentives and trusted-country partnerships, signalling continued state support for localising strategic technologies across energy, automotive, AI, and security applications.

Flag

Shadow Banking Payment Exposure

Iran relies heavily on shadow banking, exchange houses, shell firms, and yuan-conversion networks to repatriate oil proceeds. Recent U.S. actions against 35 entities and multiple exchange houses increase transaction risk for banks, traders, and insurers linked to opaque settlement channels.

Flag

Trade Diversification Accelerates Abroad

Ottawa is pushing to conclude trade deals with Mercosur, ASEAN and India, while targeting a doubling of non-U.S. exports within a decade. This creates market-entry opportunities, but also implies strategic reorientation for companies heavily exposed to U.S. demand and policy risk.

Flag

Digital Infrastructure Investment Surge

Board of Investment approvals reached 958 billion baht, including TikTok’s 842 billion baht expansion and other data-centre projects. Thailand is emerging as a regional AI and cloud hub, but execution depends on grid capacity, permitting speed, and skilled-labour availability.

Flag

Critical Minerals Build-Out Expands

Canada is scaling critical minerals and battery-material investments through public funding, transmission upgrades and project finance, notably in British Columbia and Quebec. This strengthens North American supply-chain positioning in lithium, copper and rare earths, while creating opportunities in processing, infrastructure and partnerships.

Flag

Critical Minerals Industrial Push

Ukraine is positioning lithium, graphite, titanium and rare-earth projects as strategic inputs for European supply chains. Companies say projects could move roughly four times faster than global norms, supported by over €150 million invested, export-credit backing and pending privatizations.

Flag

Port and Logistics Patterns Shift

US import flows remain resilient, but sourcing patterns are moving away from China toward Vietnam and other Asian hubs. The Port of Los Angeles handled 890,861 TEUs in April, while lower export volumes and narrow planning horizons increase uncertainty for inventory and routing decisions.

Flag

US Trade Pressure and Auto Risk

Tokyo’s trade diplomacy with Washington remains commercially significant as tariff threats, especially toward autos, shape investment and supply-chain planning. Japan has already linked large overseas financing commitments to bilateral economic negotiations, highlighting continued exposure to politically driven market-access conditions.

Flag

Services Exports and Digital Hub

Turkey is prioritizing high-value services, raising tax deductions to 100% for qualifying exported services if earnings are repatriated. Annualized services exports reached $122.2 billion and the services surplus nearly $63 billion, supporting opportunities in software, gaming, health tourism and shared services.

Flag

Budget Stalemate and Fiscal Squeeze

France faces elevated fiscal and political risk as 2027 budget passage looks uncertain ahead of presidential elections. Officials warn a rollover budget could disrupt tax indexation, weaken demand, delay spending decisions, and complicate investment planning amid deficit reduction pressures.

Flag

Semiconductor Controls and Reshoring

Japan is increasingly central to allied semiconductor controls and supply-chain realignment. Proposed US rules could pressure Japan to tighten equipment restrictions on China further, while domestic chip investment and trusted manufacturing expansion create opportunities alongside higher geopolitical and regulatory risk.

Flag

North Sea Policy Deters Investment

Energy taxation and licensing policy are creating uncertainty for upstream investors. The effective 78% levy on oil and gas profits has prompted warnings of delayed or cancelled projects, weaker domestic supply, and rising long-term dependence on imported energy.

Flag

Manufacturing Cost Shock Rising

Vietnam’s April manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5, a seven-month low, as new orders contracted and export orders declined again. Fuel, oil, and transport costs drove input inflation to a 15-year high, squeezing margins, delaying deliveries, and weakening factory hiring and inventories.

Flag

China Exposure Complicates Supply Chains

China has re-emerged as South Korea’s largest export market, with April shipments up 62.5% year on year. That supports near-term revenues, especially for chips, but heightens geopolitical exposure as US-China technology controls and policy shifts complicate long-term supply chain planning.

Flag

Defense Industry Attracts Partners

Ukraine’s battlefield-tested defense and dual-use sectors are becoming a major investment and industrial partnership opportunity. New EU-Ukraine and bilateral programs include €161 million in funding, six joint projects with Germany, and expanding Drone Deal frameworks that integrate Ukrainian technology into wider supply chains.

Flag

Banking and Payment Fragmentation

Iran-linked transactions increasingly rely on small local banks, yuan settlement structures, and informal or crypto-adjacent channels as internationally exposed banks pull back. This fragmentation raises transaction costs, delays settlements, weakens transparency, and elevates anti-money-laundering, sanctions, and counterparty risks for foreign firms.

Flag

Security Threats to Logistics

Cargo theft, extortion, organized crime and border-route disruptions are materially raising operating costs across Mexico’s trade corridors. Companies moving goods to the United States face higher insurance, tighter risk-management requirements, and greater continuity risks for just-in-time supply chains.

Flag

Russia sanctions compliance tightening

Western pressure on Turkish banks over Russia-linked transactions is increasing secondary sanctions risk and tightening payment controls. Trade with Russia is already falling, with Russian shipments to Turkey down 22.8%, raising compliance, settlement, and counterparty risks for cross-border operators.

Flag

Shadow fleet shipping risks

Sanctioned shadow tankers carried a record 54% of Russia’s fossil-fuel exports in April. Planned new EU measures and possible G7 maritime-service curbs increase insurance, vessel-screening and chartering risks for shippers, ports, commodity traders and financing institutions.

Flag

Defense Spending Crowds Out

Rising war costs and a proposed decade-long defense buildup are straining public finances, with analysis warning debt-to-GDP could reach 83% by 2035. Higher fiscal pressure may mean tighter budgets, heavier borrowing, slower reforms and weaker medium-term business conditions.

Flag

EU Accession Reshapes Regulation

Ukraine’s integration with the EU is increasingly tied to reconstruction, industrial policy, and sectoral market access in energy, transport, and defense. For businesses, this supports regulatory convergence and single-market alignment, but timing uncertainty complicates long-term investment and location decisions.

Flag

Anti-Decoupling Regulatory Retaliation

New Chinese rules allow investigations, asset seizures, expulsions, and other countermeasures against foreign entities seen as undermining China’s industrial or supply chains. This raises legal and operational risk for companies pursuing China-plus-one strategies or complying with extraterritorial sanctions.