Return to Homepage
Image

Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 19, 2025

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to end the war in Ukraine and restore relations, without the presence of Ukraine or European allies. This meeting is a significant shift in US foreign policy and raises concerns about the future of European security and the potential for a peace deal that may not be favourable to Ukraine and European allies. British couple Craig and Lindsay Foreman have been charged with spying in Iran, arrested by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps last month. Mexico is threatening to sue Google over the "Gulf of America" name change in its map service following President Donald Trump's order. India and Qatar have formalised a new strategic partnership, with Qatar announcing a $10 billion investment in India, covering sectors such as hospitality, food security, technology, and logistics. India and the US are dealing with the arrival of 112 illegal Indian immigrants in Amritsar, transported in a US military plane.

US-Russia Peace Talks: Implications for Ukraine and Europe

The US and Russia have begun peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to end the war in Ukraine and restore relations, without the presence of Ukraine or European allies. This meeting is a significant shift in US foreign policy and raises concerns about the future of European security and the potential for a peace deal that may not be favourable to Ukraine and European allies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh to discuss a potential settlement to the nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine, despite the absence of Ukrainian officials. The meeting is expected to focus on thawing relations between the two countries, whose ties have fallen to their lowest level in decades. It is meant to pave the way for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kyiv's absence at the talks has rankled many Ukrainians, and European allies have expressed concerns they are being sidelined. French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to work with all Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians to achieve a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin has repeatedly expressed readiness for peace talks, but a comprehensive settlement is impossible without considering security issues in Europe.

The meeting in Riyadh highlights Saudi Arabia's role in diplomacy, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeking to be a major diplomatic player and burnishing his reputation after the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia has maintained close relations with Russia throughout the war in Ukraine, both through the OPEC+ oil cartel and diplomatically. Saudi Arabia has also helped in prisoner negotiations and hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for an Arab League summit in 2023.

The recent US diplomatic blitz on the war has sent Ukraine and key allies scrambling to ensure a seat at the table, amid concerns that Washington and Moscow could press ahead with a deal that won't be favourable to them. Kyiv's participation in such talks was a bedrock of US policy under Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, whose administration also led international efforts to isolate Russia over the war. White House officials have pushed back against the notion that Europe has been left out, noting that administration officials have spoken to several leaders.

Kyiv has insisted it will not accept the outcome of any discussions if Kyiv does not have a say in its own future. European allies have expressed concerns they are being sidelined, with France calling an emergency meeting of European Union countries and the UK to discuss the war. Sir Keir Starmer has called for the US to provide a 'backstop' for any deal in Ukraine, and European leaders have <co: 10,


Further Reading:

British couple charged with spying in Iran

Europe and Zelensky excluded from Ukraine peace talks as US and Russia gather in Saudi Arabia; Germany leaves summit over concerns of Trump’s commitment to the Baltics

Mexico Threatens to Sue Google Over ‘Gulf of America’ Change

PM Modi's Efforts Strengthen India-Qatar Ties As Both Nations Announce Strategic Partnership

Russian delegation arrives in Saudi Arabia for talks with U.S. to end Ukraine war

Third Batch Of 112 Illegal Indian Immigrants Lands In Amritsar In US Military Plane

Top Russian, US officials are discussing improving ties and ending the Ukraine war — without Kyiv

Trump’s new world: US and Russia begin Ukraine peace talks

US and Russia meet without Ukraine for first talks on ending war

Themes around the World:

Flag

Regulatory Environment and Business Reforms

Ongoing reforms aimed at improving the regulatory framework enhance ease of doing business in Israel. Streamlined procedures and incentives for foreign investors promote economic diversification and integration into global markets.

Flag

Infrastructure Development Initiatives

Large-scale infrastructure projects, including transport and energy sectors, enhance Egypt's logistics capabilities and regional connectivity. Improved infrastructure supports supply chain efficiency and creates opportunities for foreign direct investment in construction and related industries.

Flag

Infrastructure Development Boost

Significant government spending on infrastructure projects, including ports, transport networks, and digital connectivity, is improving logistics efficiency and attracting foreign direct investment. These developments enhance Australia's competitiveness as a trade hub in the Asia-Pacific region.

Flag

Regulatory Environment and Trade Policies

South Korea's evolving trade policies, including free trade agreements and export controls, shape its attractiveness for foreign investment. Regulatory changes in data privacy, environmental standards, and corporate governance affect compliance costs and market access.

Flag

Infrastructure Development Initiatives

Significant investments in ports, roads, and industrial zones improve logistics efficiency in Vietnam. Enhanced infrastructure supports export growth and foreign direct investment, though project delays and funding gaps remain challenges.

Flag

Supply Chain Resilience and Diversification

U.S. companies are increasingly focusing on diversifying supply chains to mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions and pandemic disruptions. This shift affects global sourcing strategies and encourages nearshoring and reshoring initiatives, altering international trade flows.

Flag

Trade Relations and Regional Integration

South Africa's role in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its trade relations with key partners like China, the EU, and the US shape its trade dynamics. Shifts in trade agreements and tariffs impact market access and supply chain configurations for businesses.

Flag

Industrial Decline and Restructuring

Germany faces a deep industrial downturn, with manufacturing output shrinking by up to 20% since 2018 and over 120,000 jobs lost in 2025 alone. This trend is driven by high energy costs, regulatory burdens, and global trade shocks, forcing companies to relocate production and restructure operations.

Flag

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Relations

Tensions with Russia, China, and other key partners affect Germany's trade routes and investment climate. Sanctions and diplomatic uncertainties necessitate risk mitigation strategies for businesses engaged in international trade.

Flag

USMCA Renegotiation Uncertainty

The upcoming 2026 review of the USMCA trade agreement introduces significant uncertainty for cross-border trade, supply chains, and investment planning. Potential renegotiation or expiration could disrupt tariff-free access and impact sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics.

Flag

Labor Market Dynamics and Wage Inflation

Rising wages and labor shortages in key industrial regions challenge Vietnam's cost competitiveness. While improving living standards, these trends may prompt companies to automate or relocate certain operations, impacting investment strategies and necessitating adjustments in supply chain planning to maintain profitability.

Flag

Wartime Economy Spurs Tax Hikes

Facing stagnant GDP growth (0.1%) and falling industrial output, Russia has raised consumption taxes and introduced new levies on electronics to offset shrinking energy income. These measures increase costs for businesses and consumers, impacting investment strategies.

Flag

US-China Trade Relations

Ongoing tensions and negotiations between the US and China continue to shape global trade policies. Tariffs, export controls, and technology restrictions impact supply chains and investment decisions, compelling businesses to reassess risk exposure and diversify sourcing strategies to mitigate geopolitical uncertainties.

Flag

US-China Trade Relations

Ongoing tensions and negotiations between the US and China significantly influence global supply chains, tariffs, and investment flows. Trade policies and restrictions impact sectors like technology and manufacturing, affecting multinational corporations' strategic decisions and risk assessments.

Flag

USMCA Trade Dynamics

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues to shape Mexico's trade environment, influencing tariffs, labor standards, and cross-border supply chains. Its enforcement affects manufacturing sectors, particularly automotive and agriculture, impacting foreign investment decisions and regional trade flows.

Flag

Foreign Aid and Investment Inflows

Significant international financial aid and investment aimed at stabilizing Ukraine influence economic resilience and reconstruction. These inflows affect market dynamics and create opportunities for strategic partnerships in various sectors.

Flag

Semiconductor Industry Dominance

Taiwan's leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, especially through companies like TSMC, is critical to global technology supply chains. Any disruptions or policy changes in this sector can have widespread impacts on electronics manufacturing worldwide.

Flag

Digital Transformation and Tech Sector Growth

Rapid growth in Turkey's digital economy and technology sector presents new opportunities for investment and innovation. Enhanced digital infrastructure supports e-commerce and fintech, potentially reshaping supply chains and opening new markets for international businesses.

Flag

Critical Minerals And Resource Sovereignty

South Africa’s mineral wealth faces strategic challenges as global demand for energy-transition metals rises. The Anglo American–Teck merger highlights regulatory gaps and declining tax revenues, raising concerns about mineral sovereignty and the nation’s ability to capture value from mining investments.

Flag

Regulatory Divergence from EU Standards

The UK’s regulatory divergence from EU frameworks introduces complexities for companies operating cross-border. Variations in product standards, data protection, and financial regulations necessitate enhanced compliance mechanisms, potentially increasing operational costs and affecting market competitiveness internationally.

Flag

Sanctions Expansion and Venezuela Intervention

The US has escalated sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Chinese entities linked to oil and weapons trade, alongside military actions and direct intervention in Venezuela’s oil sector. These moves disrupt energy markets and heighten geopolitical risk for investors.

Flag

Domestic Political Dynamics

Internal political shifts and governance issues influence economic policies and regulatory frameworks. Uncertainty in domestic policy-making can lead to abrupt changes in business regulations, impacting foreign investment strategies and operational continuity.

Flag

Environmental Regulations

Stricter environmental policies and enforcement impact manufacturing processes and resource utilization. Compliance requirements influence operational costs and corporate social responsibility initiatives, affecting Mexico's attractiveness for sustainable investment.

Flag

Technological Innovation and Digitalization

Japan is advancing digital transformation across industries, including AI, robotics, and IoT integration. These innovations improve operational efficiency and create new business models, attracting technology investments and enhancing competitiveness in international markets.

Flag

Technological Innovation and Digital Transformation

The UK is advancing in technological innovation, particularly in fintech, AI, and digital infrastructure. This fosters new business models and enhances operational efficiency but requires significant investment and adaptation to rapidly changing technological landscapes to remain competitive globally.

Flag

Environmental Regulations and Sustainability Initiatives

Increasing focus on environmental sustainability and stricter regulations affect manufacturing and operational practices. Companies must align with green policies to ensure compliance and meet global ESG standards.

Flag

Geopolitical Tensions Shape Strategic Choices

Persistent border militarization and economic interdependence with China, plus regional instability, compel India to compartmentalize security and trade. Strategic diversification of supply chains and partnerships is essential for mitigating risks from global conflicts and maintaining operational continuity.

Flag

Investment Stagnation and Infrastructure Cuts

Sanctions and war have led to a 20% cut in Russian rail investment and stagnating GDP, with industrial output declining. Foreign direct investment is constrained, and infrastructure projects face delays, raising long-term risks for investors and operators.

Flag

Regulatory and Business Environment Reforms

Efforts to improve the ease of doing business through regulatory reforms, including streamlined licensing and tax incentives, enhance Egypt's attractiveness to foreign investors. These reforms impact market entry strategies and operational compliance for multinational enterprises.

Flag

Political Stability and Governance

Thailand's political landscape remains a critical factor influencing investor confidence and business operations. Periodic protests and government transitions can lead to policy uncertainty, affecting regulatory frameworks and foreign investment flows. Stability in governance is essential for sustained economic growth and attracting long-term international trade partnerships.

Flag

Regulatory and Governance Reforms

Ongoing reforms aimed at improving transparency and business climate are critical for attracting investment. However, implementation challenges and corruption concerns remain, affecting investor confidence and business operations.

Flag

US Dollar Decline Reshapes Investment

The US dollar fell 10–12% against major currencies in 2025, driven by policy uncertainty and global capital flows. This depreciation raised import costs and inflation, but boosted US exports and international investment returns, compelling companies to adapt currency risk strategies and portfolio allocations.

Flag

Migration and Labor Market Effects

The Venezuelan diaspora in the US shapes labor market dynamics and consumer demographics. Migration trends influence workforce availability and create new market opportunities, affecting business strategies in sectors linked to Venezuela.

Flag

Geopolitical Realignment and Partnerships

Russia's pivot towards non-Western alliances, including closer ties with China and other emerging markets, reshapes trade flows and investment patterns. This realignment offers alternative opportunities but also introduces new geopolitical risks and complexities for international businesses.

Flag

Political Stability and Governance

Thailand's political environment remains a critical factor influencing investor confidence and business operations. Periodic political unrest and governance challenges can disrupt supply chains and affect trade policies, necessitating careful risk assessment for international investors and companies operating in the region.

Flag

Western Sanctions Intensify

Western countries have escalated sanctions against Russia, targeting key sectors such as energy, finance, and defense. These measures restrict access to international capital markets and advanced technologies, complicating foreign investment and trade. Businesses face increased compliance risks and supply chain disruptions, necessitating strategic reassessment of Russia-related operations.