Agricultural Modernization and Trade Shift

Pakistan is rapidly modernizing its agriculture sector through Chinese technology and investment, aiming for export-led growth and higher yields. This transformation presents new opportunities for agribusiness and logistics, but also heightens dependency on Chinese expertise and market access.

Sanktionsdurchsetzung und Exportkontrollen

Strengere Durchsetzung von EU-Russland-Sanktionen erhöht Compliance-Risiken. Ermittler deckten ein Netzwerk mit rund 16.000 Lieferungen im Wert von mindestens 30 Mio. € an russische Rüstungsendnutzer auf. Unternehmen müssen Endverbleib, Zwischenhändler und Dual-Use-Checks deutlich verschärfen.

Regulatory and Policy Shifts for Business

Japan is implementing regulatory reforms to attract foreign investment and enhance business resilience. Policy changes in economic security, industrial strategy, and trade are designed to support supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and long-term competitiveness for international firms.

US trade talks and tariff risk

Vietnam is negotiating a more “reciprocal” trade framework with the US amid tariff pressure and scrutiny of Vietnam’s export surplus. Outcomes could reshape duties, rules-of-origin enforcement and supply-chain routing, affecting apparel, electronics, and China-plus-one strategies.

Financial Sector Resilience and Growth Outlook

Israel’s economy demonstrates resilience, with strong currency performance, low unemployment, and robust growth forecasts for 2026. Rate cuts and potential normalization agreements could further boost foreign investment and exports, enhancing the country’s attractiveness for global investors.

ESG Regulation and Compliance Shift

Brazil is implementing robust ESG regulations, including mandatory sustainability reporting by 2026 and credit restrictions for companies linked to illegal deforestation. These measures are reshaping corporate governance, access to finance, and export eligibility, especially for land-intensive sectors.

Stagnation in Russian Oil and LNG Output

Despite sanctions and attacks, Russia’s oil production only fell 0.8% in 2024, but LNG output missed targets and long-term expansion plans are delayed. Sanctions on technology and finance hinder energy sector growth, affecting future export capacity and investment opportunities.

Domestic demand fragility and policy swings

Weak property and local-government finance dynamics keep domestic demand uneven, encouraging policy stimulus and sector interventions. For foreign investors, this raises forecasting error, payment and counterparty risk, and the likelihood of sudden regulatory actions targeting pricing, procurement, or competition.

Labour Market and Immigration Shifts

The UK labour market is shaped by new immigration policies, skills shortages, and demographic trends. Restrictions on migrant mobility and evolving visa rules affect talent availability, wage pressures, and long-term economic growth.

Data (Use and Access) Act shift

The DUAA’s main provisions are in force, expanding ICO investigative powers and raising potential PECR fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover. Firms must reassess data-governance, consent, product design, vendor risk and UK‑EU data-transfer posture.

Rules-Based Order Fragments Globally

Canadian leadership now openly acknowledges the collapse of the traditional rules-based international order. This fragmentation increases uncertainty for multinational firms, as trade, finance, and supply chains become tools of geopolitical leverage rather than predictable frameworks.

Critical minerals and rare earth security

Seoul is moving to strengthen rare-earth supply chains by easing public-sector limits on overseas resource development, expanding domestic processing and recycling, and coordinating with partners while managing China export-control risks. This supports EV, wind, defense, and electronics supply continuity and investment pipelines.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

Labor Shortages Drive Immigration Policy Shifts

Persistent skilled labor shortages are prompting Germany to expand ethical pathways for foreign workers, notably from India. This trend is vital for modular sector growth, affecting project delivery, wage structures, and operational scalability for international investors.

Sanctions and compliance exposure regionally

Israel’s geopolitical positioning—amid Iran-related tensions and complex regional alignments—heightens sanctions-screening, export-control and counterparty risks. Multinationals face enhanced due diligence needs around dual-use goods, defense-linked supply, financial flows and third-country intermediaries.

Border trade decentralization, barter

Tehran is delegating emergency import powers to border provinces, enabling direct imports, simplified customs, and barter to secure essentials under sanctions and conflict risk. This creates localized regulatory variance, higher compliance ambiguity, and opportunities for regional traders with elevated corruption risk.

Canada Pursues Strategic Trade Diversification

Canada is rapidly diversifying trade and investment partnerships, signing 12 new deals across four continents, including with China, the EU, and Qatar. This shift reduces reliance on the US market, but raises exposure to new geopolitical risks and regulatory complexities for international businesses.

Commodity Export Competitiveness

South Africa’s strategic mineral and agricultural exports benefit from global rediversification and commodity demand, but are constrained by domestic logistics, policy uncertainty, and rising input costs, impacting trade balances and sectoral investment strategies.

Industriewandel Auto- und EV-Markt

Die Re-Industrialisierung des Autosektors wird durch Politik und Nachfrage geprägt: Neue E-Auto-Förderung 2026–2029 umfasst 3 Mrd. € und Zuschüsse von 1.500–6.000 € (einkommensabhängig). Das verschiebt Absatzplanung, Batterielieferketten, Handelsstrategien und Wettbewerb, inkl. chinesischer Anbieter.

FX and capital-flow volatility exposure

Global risk-off moves and US rate expectations are driving sharp swings in KRW and equities, with reported weekly foreign equity outflows around $5.3bn and large one-day won moves. Volatility complicates hedging, profit repatriation, and import-cost forecasting for Korea-based operations.

Energy diversification and LNG buildout

Turkey is expanding LNG and regasification capacity, planning additional FSRU projects and targeting ~200 million m³/day intake within two years. Long-term LNG contracting (including U.S.-sourced volumes) can improve supply security, but price volatility and infrastructure bottlenecks remain.

Data security and cross-border flows

China’s data-security regime continues tightening around cross-border transfers, localization, and security assessments for “important data.” Multinationals face higher compliance costs, audit exposure, and potential disruption to global IT architectures, analytics, HR systems, and cloud-based operations.

Governance, enforcement, and asset risk

Heightened enforcement actions—permit revocations, land seizures, and talk of asset confiscation powers—are raising perceived rule-of-law risk, especially in resources. High-profile mine ownership uncertainty amplifies legal and political risk premiums, affecting M&A, project finance, and long-term operating stability.

Chronic Debt Dependency Crisis

Pakistan’s reliance on foreign loans from China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the IMF has reached critical levels, with external debt exceeding $128 billion. This dependency forces policy compromises and exposes businesses to currency volatility, regulatory unpredictability, and lender-driven reforms.

Energy Crisis and Cost Relief Measures

Persistent energy shortages and high tariffs have hampered industrial output. Recent government relief measures, including tariff reductions and export refinance schemes, offer short-term support but underscore ongoing risks for manufacturers and supply chain reliability.

Monetary tightening and demand pressures

The RBA lifted the cash rate 25bp to 3.85% as inflation re-accelerated (headline ~3.8% y/y; core ~3.3–3.4%) and labour markets stayed tight (~4.1% unemployment). Higher funding costs and a stronger AUD affect capex timing, valuations, and import/export competitiveness.

Immigration tightening and talent constraints

Stricter U.S. visa policies are disrupting global talent mobility. H‑1B stamping backlogs in India reportedly extend to 2027, alongside enhanced vetting and a wage-weighted selection rule effective Feb 27, 2026, raising staffing risk for tech, healthcare, and R&D operations.

Security Guarantees as Investment Prerequisite

International investors and financial institutions stress that credible security guarantees are essential for large-scale investment in Ukraine. Ongoing conflict and uncertainty over territorial concessions remain major obstacles, with capital inflows contingent on a stable, enforceable peace framework.

Rising cyber risk and compliance

La stratégie nationale cybersécurité 2026-2030 répond à un record de 348 000 atteintes en 2025 (+75% en cinq ans). Priorités: formation, sécurisation technologique, préparation de crise, mobilisation du privé et réduction des dépendances, renforçant obligations fournisseurs et audits.

Complex Sanctions and Regulatory Landscape

Ukraine’s regulatory environment is shaped by evolving sanctions on Russia and new trade controls. Businesses face compliance challenges, especially regarding dual-use goods and financial transactions, requiring constant monitoring of legal and operational risks.

Escalating Australia-China Trade Tensions

Recent moves by Australia to impose tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel, and disputes over the Port of Darwin, have reignited trade tensions. These developments risk retaliatory Chinese actions, impacting Australia’s exports, investment flows, and overall business climate.

Digital regulation and data-sovereignty disputes

US concerns over platform fairness rules, network usage fees, and restrictions on exporting high-precision map data (Google) are resurfacing in trade talks. Tighter privacy enforcement after major breaches raises liability, audit, and cross-border data-transfer costs for tech-enabled firms.

Escalating Taiwan Strait grey-zone risk

China’s sustained air and naval activity and blockade-style drills raise probabilities of disruption without formal conflict. Firms face higher marine insurance, rerouting and inventory buffers, plus heightened contingency planning for ports, aviation, and regional logistics hubs.

Inflation resurgence and rate volatility

Core inflation has re-accelerated (trimmed mean 0.9% q/q; 3.4% y/y), lifting expectations of near-term RBA tightening. Higher and more volatile borrowing costs raise hurdle rates, pressure consumer demand, and change hedging, funding, and FX assumptions for cross-border investors.

Security and Organized Crime Risks

Persistent insecurity, including theft and extortion, remains a top obstacle for business operations. Nearly half of Mexican firms report crime victimization, leading to higher security costs and operational risks, particularly in key industrial regions outside secure zones like Coahuila.

USMCA review and North America

The approaching USMCA review is heightening risk for automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing flows across the US–Canada–Mexico corridor. Threatened tariffs and rules-of-origin pressures incentivize nearshoring but complicate cross-border planning, inventory placement, and long-term supplier commitments.