Sanctions expansion and enforcement intensity

U.S. sanctions policy is expanding and increasingly operational, raising shipping, insurance, and counterparty risks. New Iran measures targeted 15 entities and 14 vessels tied to the “shadow fleet” soon after nuclear talks, indicating parallel diplomacy and pressure. Firms need stronger screening and maritime due diligence.

DHS funding instability and disruptions

Recurring DHS funding standoffs and partial shutdowns threaten operational continuity for TSA, FEMA reimbursements, Coast Guard readiness, and CISA cybersecurity deployments, while ICE enforcement remains funded. Businesses should anticipate travel friction, disaster-recovery payment delays, and security-service gaps.

Dollar hedging costs surge

Foreign investors are increasing USD hedge ratios, amplifying dollar swings even without mass Treasury selling. Higher FX-hedging costs reshape portfolio allocation, pricing of long-term supply contracts, and can reduce inward investment appetite while raising working-capital volatility for importers.

FDIC resolution and failure risk

Recent FDIC-led closures highlight persistent tail risk among smaller institutions with concentrated portfolios and weak controls. Failure events can freeze credit lines, interrupt payment processing, and complicate escrow and cash-management arrangements for foreign-owned subsidiaries operating across states.

Energy Import Dependence and Transition

Energy prices remain a key macro risk; IMF flags shocks like higher energy costs as inflation-extending. At the same time, expanding renewables and nuclear projects reshape industrial power pricing and grid investment. Energy-intensive manufacturers should plan for tariff volatility and decarbonization requirements.

Regulatory tightening in housing finance

Bank of Israel measures cap mortgage maturities at 30 years, tighten repayment ratios, and raise bank capital requirements. This can cool real-estate demand, affect construction supply chains, and influence commercial leasing dynamics as households and developers adjust financing structures and cash flows.

$350bn US investment execution

South Korea’s pledge to invest US$350bn in the United States is shifting from political commitment to project vetting, with new review committees and Washington consultations. Corporate capital allocation, governance, and disclosure expectations will shape deal timing, financing terms, and bilateral leverage.

US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Bölgesel yeniden inşa ve altyapı ihaleleri

Deprem bölgesinde ulaşım hatları ve sanayi bağlantılarını güçlendiren yeni demiryolu projeleri (ör. Nurdağı–Kahramanmaraş) planlanıyor. Bu, inşaat, lojistik, çimento-çelik ve makine ekipman talebini artırırken; ihale şartları, finansman ve yerel kapasite kısıtları risk yaratabilir.

Energy security and transition investment

Rapid growth targets are forcing revisions to energy planning and grid investments. New frameworks—such as a two-part tariff for battery energy storage (effective Jan 2026)—aim to attract private capital, reduce curtailment, and improve reliability, affecting industrial uptime and PPA economics.

Non-tariff barriers and standards convergence

Alongside tariff cuts, Taiwan pledged to address longstanding non-tariff barriers, including easier acceptance of US-built vehicles to US safety standards and broader market access. Firms should anticipate faster regulatory alignment, expanded import competition, and compliance-driven product redesign in some sectors.

China overcapacity and de-risking

EU’s goods deficit with China widened to €359.3bn in 2025 as imports rose 6.3% and exports fell 6.5%. German firms weigh deeper China engagement amid IP and security risks, while Beijing’s export controls and subsidised competition threaten EU-based production.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

Import licensing and quota uncertainty

Businesses report delays and sharp quota cuts in import permits (e.g., frozen beef private quota cut from 180,000 to 30,000 tons), alongside tighter controls on fuel import quotas for private retailers. This heightens operational uncertainty for food, hospitality, and downstream distribution networks.

Ports and rail logistics bottlenecks

Transnet’s recovery is uneven: rail volumes are improving, but vandalism and underinvestment keep capacity fragile. Port congestion—such as Cape Town’s fruit-export backlog near R1bn—threatens time-sensitive shipments, raises demurrage, and pushes costly rerouting across supply chains.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Macro volatility: shekel and rates

Inflation has eased to around 1.8–2.0%, reopening prospects for Bank of Israel rate cuts, but geopolitical headlines drive sharp shekel swings. This complicates pricing, hedging, and capital planning for exporters/importers, and can change local financing conditions quickly.

Indo-Pacific security reshapes logistics

AUKUS and expanded US submarine rotations at HMAS Stirling from 2027 (Australia investing ~A$5.6b plus A$8.4b nearby) heighten geopolitical risk around regional sea lanes. Shipping, insurance, and dual-use supply chains should plan for contingency routing and compliance.

Selic alta e volatilidade

Com Selic em 15% e inflação de 12 meses em 4,44% (perto do teto de 4,5%), o BC sinaliza cortes graduais a partir de março, sem guidance longo. A combinação de juros e incerteza fiscal afeta crédito, câmbio, hedges e decisões de capex.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.

High housing and rate-stability focus

The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates at 2.50% through 2026 as Seoul apartment prices rise for 55 straight weeks and FX risks dominate. Tighter macroprudential bias can constrain credit availability, affecting real estate, consumer demand, and project financing assumptions.

Financial conditions and liquidity volatility

Interbank rates spiked before easing (overnight near 8.5% after 17–17.5%), highlighting liquidity sensitivity and potential pass-through to loan/deposit costs. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are also growing. Foreign investors should stress-test funding, hedging, and counterparty risk for Vietnam operations.

State-asset sales and listings

Government plans to restructure 60 state firms—40 to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and 20 toward stock-market listing—to widen private-sector participation. This creates M&A and partnership opportunities but requires careful diligence on governance, valuation, and regulatory approvals.

Aceros, autos y reglas origen

México busca eliminar aranceles “disfuncionales” a acero/aluminio y armonizar criterios para autos en la revisión del T‑MEC. Cambios en contenido regional y cumplimiento elevarían costos de certificación, reconfigurarían proveedores y afectarían márgenes de OEMs y Tier‑1.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Historic drought and Mexico–U.S. water treaty obligations are becoming operational risks, particularly for water-intensive industries in northern hubs. Potential rationing, higher tariffs, and community pushback can disrupt production, requiring water audits, recycling investment, and site selection adjustments.

Compliance gaps in industrial estates

Parliamentary disclosures highlighting missing mandatory investment activity reporting by major nickel operators underscore governance and oversight gaps. For multinationals, this elevates ESG, tax, and permitting due-diligence requirements, and increases exposure to audits, fines, or operational interruptions.

Contratos mixtos y apertura acotada

El gobierno impulsa “contratos mixtos” con participación estatal mínima de 40% para atraer capital, ejemplificado por Macavil. Esto abre oportunidades selectivas en E&P y servicios, pero con riesgos de gobernanza, términos fiscales, ejecución y dependencia de decisiones políticas.

İşgücü gerilimleri ve operasyon sürekliliği

Büyük perakende/lojistik ağlarında ücret anlaşmazlıkları grev ve işten çıkarmalara yol açabiliyor; dağıtım merkezleri ve depolarda aksama riski yükseliyor. Çok lokasyonlu işletmeler için sendikal dinamikler, taşeron kullanımı, güvenlik müdahaleleri ve itibar yönetimi tedarik sürekliliğini etkiler.

Rising defence spending and procurement

Germany is accelerating rearmament with major outlays (e.g., €536m initial loitering‑munitions order within a €4.3bn framework; broader funding exceeding €100bn). This boosts defence-tech opportunities but heightens export-control, security and supply‑capacity constraints.

Mega-logistics projects reshape routes

Major rail and logistics projects are advancing, including the Den Chai–Chiang Rai–Chiang Khong double-track line (53% complete; opening expected 2028) and the Thai–Chinese HSR phase 1 (51.74% complete). These will alter inland freight costs and distribution strategies.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

USMCA uncertainty and North America

Washington is signaling a tougher USMCA review ahead of the July 1 deadline, with officials floating withdrawal scenarios and stricter rules-of-origin. Automotive, agriculture, and cross-border manufacturing face tariff, compliance, and investment-planning risk across Canada–Mexico supply chains.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleets

US sanctions activity is intensifying against Iran and Russia-linked networks, targeting vessels, traders, and financiers. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑US firms, heightens maritime due diligence needs (AIS, beneficial ownership, STS transfers), and increases insurance, freight, and payment friction.

Gigafactory build-out accelerates

ProLogium’s Dunkirk solid-state gigafactory broke ground in February 2026, targeting 0.8 GWh in 2028, 4 GWh by 2030 and 12 GWh by 2032, with land reserved to scale to 48 GWh—reshaping European sourcing and localisation decisions.

Energy grid strikes and shortages

Repeated attacks on power and gas infrastructure drive outages, emergency repairs, and import needs. Naftogaz cites at least €3 billion in damage and over €900 million equipment needs; businesses must plan for backup power, heating disruptions, and production downtime during winters.

Patchwork U.S. AI and privacy regulation

State-led AI governance and privacy rules are expanding in 2026, adding transparency, bias testing, provenance, and reporting requirements. Multinationals face fragmented compliance across jurisdictions, higher litigation risk, and new constraints on cross-border data and HR automation.