Anti-corruption tightening and compliance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and waste is set for adoption, emphasizing stronger deterrence, post-audit controls, and scrutiny of high-risk sectors. While improving integrity over time, short-term effects include slower approvals, higher documentation burdens, and elevated enforcement risk for partners and intermediaries.

War finance and external funding

The budget remains war-dominated: 2025 spending hit $131.4bn with 71% for defence and a $39.2bn deficit; debt is projected near 106% of GDP in 2026. Business faces tax-policy shifts, payment delays, and heightened sovereign-risk sensitivity.

Anti-corruption drive and enforcement risk

A renewed, high-level anti-corruption push is framed as a long-term campaign with stricter oversight of sensitive areas. For foreign firms, this can improve governance over time, but near-term raises decision delays, heightened audits, and greater due‑diligence needs for partners and permits.

FX liquidity, inflation, and pricing volatility

After the 2024 devaluation, inflation fell from a 38% peak to about 11.9% in January 2026, aided by tighter policy and improved reserves. Nonetheless, FX availability can tighten quickly, complicating import payment timing, inventory planning, and profit repatriation.

Port and corridor logistics investment

Ongoing port and connectivity projects—such as Patimban expansion and related toll-road links—aim to reduce Java logistics bottlenecks and improve automotive/export throughput. Construction timelines, permitting, and execution risk still affect distribution costs and supply chain reliability.

USMCA uncertainty and rule changes

USMCA review dynamics and sector disputes (notably autos rules of origin) keep North American supply chains exposed to abrupt compliance shifts. Firms should plan for documentation upgrades, preference qualification audits, and contingency routing if exemptions narrow or enforcement tightens.

Trade deficit, import mix shifts

February exports rose 1.6% y/y to ~$21.1B while imports rose 6.1% to ~$30.3B, widening the deficit 18.1% to ~$9.2B; gold/silver drove imports as energy imports fell 16.6%. Expect policy attention on import compression, duties, and FX demand management.

Regional proxy conflict shipping risk

Iran-linked regional hostilities amplify threats to commercial vessels and energy infrastructure, with reported ship damage and LNG disruptions. Elevated security costs, rerouting, and delays affect petrochemicals, metals, and containerized trade, while corporate duty-of-care and force-majeure exposure increase.

Stricter FDI screening and economic security

France is an active user of foreign investment controls under EU-wide economic security priorities, with faster approvals for most deals but deeper scrutiny for sensitive tech, energy, data and defence. Transaction timelines, remedies, and governance requirements can materially affect M&A execution.

Seguridad logística y robo carga

La violencia y el robo de carga impactan rutas clave y puertos. En 2025, 82% de robos se concentró en Centro (51%) y Bajío (31%); alimentos/bebidas 31% del botín. Bloqueos en occidente afectaron Manzanillo‑Guadalajara y generaron retrasos y capacidad limitada.

China’s dual-use export blacklists

China is using its Export Control Law to restrict dual-use shipments to foreign defense-linked entities (e.g., Japanese contractors), with extraterritorial transfer prohibitions. Global suppliers risk secondary exposure and must strengthen end-use controls, customer screening, and contract clauses.

Arctic LNG logistics sophistication

Russia is scaling ship-to-ship LNG transfers in Murmansk, including Arctic LNG 2-linked cargoes routed toward China’s Beihai. Complex Arctic logistics can keep volumes moving but raise traceability, insurance, and counterparty risks; EU LNG policy uncertainty remains a key swing factor.

Gas production shutdowns ripple regionally

Security-driven stoppages at Leviathan and Karish triggered force majeure and cut exports to Egypt and Jordan. Volatile output affects regional power and industrial users, LNG procurement, and energy prices, while complicating project finance for Israel’s planned capacity expansion to ~21 bcm/year.

Tariff volatility and legal risk

Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a temporary 10–15% global import surcharge under Section 122 (150-day limit) and accelerated Section 301 probes. Importers face duty volatility, contract renegotiations, and unresolved refund litigation exposure.

Green trade barriers and ESG compliance

EU CBAM moves into payments in 2026, requiring verified emissions data and carbon certificates for covered imports. Multinationals’ RE100 and ESG requirements are pushing “green industrial parks,” influencing site selection, supplier qualification, and capex for metering and decarbonisation.

Red Sea security and route risk

Houthi shipping attacks are suspended but conditional on Gaza dynamics; advisories and high-risk designations remain. Carriers cautiously test Suez while many still route via the Cape. Firms should plan for volatile transit times, higher war-risk premiums, GPS interference and contingency inventory for Red Sea lanes.

Tighter immigration and residency rules

Labour’s immigration overhaul tightens asylum support, extends typical residency-to-settlement from five to ten years, and introduces longer paths for refugees, with limited fast-tracks for high earners. Businesses face higher compliance, slower talent retention, and sectoral labour tightness risks.

De minimis and import enforcement

Washington is reshaping import enforcement, including curbs or suspension of duty‑free de minimis treatment and tighter screening for forced‑labor and evasion. Cross‑border e‑commerce and consumer goods supply chains should expect longer clearance times, higher landed costs, and expanded documentation demands.

Sanctions and Russia exposure management

Saudi outreach to Russian industry highlights commercial opportunity but raises sanctions-screening and reputational considerations. Firms operating from the Kingdom must strengthen due diligence on sanctioned entities, trade finance controls, and export compliance to avoid secondary-sanctions risk.

Data-centre boom strains power

Thailand is positioning as a regional data-centre hub: BOI approved seven projects worth over THB96bn, with 36 projects totaling THB728bn in 2025. Egat is investing THB31bn to expand EEC transmission capacity, making electricity access a key site-selection constraint.

Commodity export surge, value-add push

Merchandise exports reportedly rose ~55% to $13.43bn in 2025, driven by gold ($6.40bn) and coffee ($2.46bn). Opportunities grow in processing and logistics, but earnings concentration and provenance concerns heighten compliance, reputational, and FX volatility risks.

War-driven security and continuity

Ongoing missile and drone attacks create persistent operational disruption, especially in frontline and port regions. Firms face heightened physical security, force‑majeure risk, staff safety duty-of-care, and higher operating costs, shaping investment horizons and location decisions.

Trade access and tariff competitiveness

Pakistan’s export model is concentrated in textiles and reliant on preferential access (EU GSP+ renewal due 2027). India’s advancing EU/UK deals and shifting US tariff regimes squeeze margins; buyers may reallocate orders based on small tariff differentials and compliance-cost gaps.

USMCA renegotiation and exit risk

With the mandatory USMCA review approaching, Washington is signaling tougher rules of origin and reshoring demands, while President Trump has mused about withdrawal. This uncertainty raises tariff and compliance risk across North American supply chains, investment plans, and cross-border pricing.

Dual-use export controls expansion

Beijing is widening dual-use controls, including blacklisting foreign defense-linked entities (e.g., Japanese aerospace and heavy industry). International firms must map China-origin inputs and re-export exposure, as licensing delays and end-use verification can disrupt aerospace, electronics and machinery supply chains.

Climate shocks and supply disruptions

Floods and extreme weather increasingly affect agriculture output, transport, and industrial continuity. IMF RSF climate financing signals policy focus, but near-term exposure remains high for cotton, food inputs, and infrastructure reliability—raising the value of diversified sourcing and resilient warehousing.

Trade policy uncertainty: US tariffs

Authorities warn fluctuating U.S. tariff and fee policies could disrupt Thailand’s export outlook, even as electronics-led exports recently strengthened. Businesses should expect shifting rules-of-origin scrutiny, re-pricing needs, and greater value of diversified end-markets and ASEAN FTA utilisation.

Political fragmentation, policy volatility

Hung parliament dynamics and heavy reliance on decree procedures heighten regulatory uncertainty through 2027. Businesses face higher risk of abrupt changes in taxation, labor rules, and industrial policy, complicating long-term commitments and M&A valuation assumptions.

Hormuz–Red Sea shipping risk

Escalation around Iran is disrupting Gulf and Red Sea routes, with major carriers pausing transits and rerouting via the Cape. Higher war-risk premiums and longer voyages raise landed costs, delay inventory, and stress Saudi import/export scheduling and project logistics.

Gas supply disruptions risk

Israel’s suspension of roughly 1.1 bcfd gas exports to Egypt highlights energy-security dependence. Egypt is advancing LNG imports, chartering multiple FSRUs (~2 bcfd capacity) and planning ~75 cargoes (est. $3.75bn), raising costs for power and energy-intensive industry.

Fiscalización digital y aduanas

El SAT acelera auditorías basadas en CFDI, cruces bancarios y datos de comercio exterior, priorizando subvaluación, importaciones incoherentes y facturación simulada. Para multinacionales, aumenta el riesgo de ajustes, devoluciones más lentas, y necesidad de gobernanza documental y KYC.

EU Chemicals Protection and Competitiveness

Europe is moving to shield chemicals amid high costs and import pressure. The EC imposed antidumping duties on ABS (5.2–21.7%) and BDO (52.4–142.5%); Cefic estimates 37 Mt/y capacity closures since 2022 and 20,000 jobs lost, influencing feedstock pricing and investment decisions.

UK–EU border friction persists

Post-Brexit trade remains burdened by customs/SPS checks and ongoing regulatory divergence. Businesses report costly documentation and shifting procedures; agri-food and pharma face particular compliance complexity. This raises lead times, inventory needs and the value of EU-based distribution footprints.

Red Sea disruption and freight inflation

Renewed Middle East instability is pushing carriers to reroute India–Europe/US services via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 14–20 days and raising marine insurance and freight. Firms should stress-test inventory, Incoterms, and working capital for prolonged corridor disruptions.

TL oynaklığı ve sermaye akımları

IMF, 2025 Mart stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlığı sattığını, net rezervlerin 56,9 milyar $’dan 29,1 milyar $’a indiğini belirtti. Geçici piyasa kısıtları görülebilir. Hedging, nakit yönetimi ve ithalat/İhracat fiyatlaması kritik.

IMF–EU conditionality drives reforms

A new IMF programme (~$8.1–8.2bn) and a linked EU package (€90bn for 2026–27) anchor macro stability but require governance, revenue, and administrative reforms. Companies should expect evolving VAT, customs, and compliance rules plus tighter audit and reporting expectations.