Red Sea shipping and insurance costs

Red Sea insecurity continues to distort trade lanes, with heightened risk for vessels linked to Israeli ports and periodic rerouting around the Cape. Elevated war-risk premiums and longer transit times affect inventory, freight budgeting, and supplier reliability for Israel-connected supply chains.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.

Property slump and policy easing

Reports indicate easing of “three red lines” developer leverage oversight, signaling stabilization intent after defaults. Yet falling prices and weak confidence constrain growth and local-government revenue, affecting demand forecasts, supplier solvency, and payment/collection risk in China operations.

Gas price and storage stress

Low German gas storage levels and higher winter price sensitivity increase heating-cost volatility. This strengthens the business case for electrification and efficiency retrofits, but also elevates default risk for households and SMEs, affecting credit underwriting, consumer financing, and project payback calculations.

Energy investment and nuclear cooperation linkage

US pushes Korea’s first $350bn investment projects toward energy, while trade tensions spill into talks on civil uranium enrichment, spent-fuel reprocessing, and nuclear-powered submarines. Outcomes affect Korea’s energy-security roadmap, industrial projects, and cross-border financing and permitting timelines.

China-linked FDI rules re-evaluation

India is reviewing Press Note 3 and may add a de minimis threshold to speed small-border-country investments while retaining scrutiny for sensitive sectors. This could reopen selective China capital and supplier participation, affecting JV structuring, procurement costs, and compliance with security reviews.

Russia sanctions and maritime enforcement

London is weighing stronger enforcement against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” including potential tanker seizures under sanctions law, amid NATO coordination. This raises compliance, insurance, and routing risks for shipping, energy traders, and any firms exposed to sanctioned counterparties.

SOE reform momentum and policy execution

Business confidence has improved but remains fragile, with reform progress uneven across Eskom and Transnet. Slippage on rail legislation, ports corporatisation and electricity unbundling timelines creates execution risk for PPPs, project finance, and long-horizon capex decisions.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

Lojistik ve demiryolu koridorlarının güçlenmesi

Ford Otosan’ın Romanya–Kocaeli araç taşımada Marmaray üzerinden demiryolu koridoru kurması ve yeni hızlı tren projeleri, Türkiye–Avrupa tedarik zincirinde süre/karbon avantajı sağlayabilir. Liman entegrasyonu, kapasite tahsisi ve gümrük süreçleri operasyonel performansı belirleyecek.

Foreign real estate ownership liberalization

New rules enabling foreign ownership of land (with limits in Makkah/Madinah) are lifting international demand for Saudi property and mixed-use developments. This improves investment entry options and collateralization, but requires careful title, zoning, and regulatory due diligence.

Pharma market access and import controls

US–India framework provisionally shields Indian generic pharma exports (≈$10bn/yr) from reciprocal tariffs, while India pledges to address medical device barriers. Separately, India restricts low-priced penicillin imports via minimum CIF thresholds, influencing API sourcing and pricing.

Local content and procurement localisation

PIF’s local-content drive exceeds ~US$157bn, with contractor participation reported at ~67% in 2025 and expanding pipelines of platform-listed opportunities. International suppliers face higher localisation, JV, and in-Kingdom value-add requirements (e.g., IKTVA-style terms) to win contracts.

Macroeconomic recovery and rate cuts

Inflation has eased to around 1.8% with a stronger shekel, reopening scope for Bank of Israel rate cuts. Cheaper financing may support investment, yet currency strength can squeeze exporters and pricing, influencing hedging strategies and contract denomination choices.

China-exposure and strategic asset scrutiny

Beijing warned of potential retaliation over proposals to return Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, highlighting renewed geopolitics around strategic infrastructure. Firms with China-linked ownership, customers or supply chains face higher political, reputational and contract risks, alongside tighter investment screening.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

Energy planning and power constraints

Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support 10%+ growth targets, projecting 120–130 million toe demand by 2030 and rapid renewables expansion. Businesses face execution risk in grids, LNG logistics, and permitting; power reliability remains a key site-selection factor.

External debt rollovers, FX buffers

Pakistan’s reliance on short-term bilateral rollovers and Chinese commercial loans keeps reserves fragile; a recent $700m repayment cut gross reserves to about $15.5bn. Tight buffers raise devaluation risk, restrict profit repatriation and disrupt import-dependent supply chains.

USMCA review and exit risk

With a mandatory July 1 review, the White House is reportedly weighing USMCA withdrawal while seeking tougher rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, and anti-dumping. Heightened uncertainty threatens North American integrated supply chains, automotive planning, and cross-border investment confidence.

AI regulation and compliance burden

China is expanding AI governance via draft laws and sector rules, emphasizing safety, content controls, and data governance. Foreign firms deploying AI or integrating Chinese models face product localization, auditability demands, and higher legal exposure around censorship and algorithm accountability.

Digital regulation and data enforcement

US states are escalating privacy, AI, and children’s online-safety enforcement, creating a fragmented compliance landscape alongside EU rules. Multinationals must manage divergent consent, age-assurance, and data-broker obligations, with rising litigation and enforcement risk affecting digital business models.

Lieferkettenrecht, Bürokratie, ESG

17 Verbände fordern Aussetzung oder Angleichung des deutschen Lieferkettengesetzes an EU-Recht (EU-Schwelle: >5.000 Beschäftigte und 1,5 Mrd. € Umsatz; DE: ab 1.000 Beschäftigte). Für multinationale Firmen bleibt ESG-Compliance komplex, mit Haftungs-, Audit- und Reportingkosten sowie Reputationsrisiken.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

Dual-use tech and connectivity controls

Ukraine is tightening control over battlefield-relevant connectivity, including whitelisting Starlink terminals and disabling unauthorized units used by Russia. For businesses relying on satellite connectivity and IoT, this signals stricter verification requirements, device registration, and heightened cyber and supply risks.

Regulatory unpredictability and enforcement

Sector-focused campaigns and uneven local enforcement create compliance uncertainty in areas such as antitrust, national security reviews, and ESG/labor enforcement. International firms should expect faster investigations, reputational exposure, and the need for stronger internal controls and local engagement.

Geopolitical risk: Taiwan routes

Persistent Taiwan Strait tensions elevate insurance premiums, rerouting risk, and contingency planning needs for shipping and air freight. A crisis would disrupt semiconductor-linked supply chains and regional production networks, prompting customers to demand dual-sourcing and higher inventories.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Macroeconomic stagnation and expensive money

Growth is slowing sharply (IMF forecasts around 0.6–0.9%), while inflation and high rates persist alongside tax increases such as VAT to 22%. Tighter credit and weaker demand elevate default risk, constrain working capital, and complicate investment cases and repatriation planning.

AI chip export controls to China

Policy oscillation on allowing sales of high-performance AI chips to China creates strategic risk for chipmakers and AI users. Companies must manage compliance, customer screening, and geopolitical backlash, while potential future tightening could disrupt revenue, cloud infrastructure, and global AI deployment plans.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Labour shortages, migration recalibration

Mining, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing face persistent skills shortages; industry is pushing faster skilled-migration pathways while government tightens integrity and conditions in some visa streams. Project schedules, wage costs and compliance burdens are key variables for investors and EPC firms.

IMF-linked reforms and fiscal tightening

Ongoing engagement with the IMF and multilaterals supports macro stabilization but implies subsidy reforms, tax enforcement, and constrained public spending. These measures affect consumer demand, project pipelines, and pricing. Investors should track review milestones that can unlock financing and market confidence.

Trade remedies and export barriers

Vietnam faces intensifying trade-defense actions in key markets. Example: the US imposed antidumping duties of 47.12% on Vietnamese hard empty capsules, alongside CVDs. Similar risks can spread to steel and other goods, elevating legal costs and reshaping sourcing strategies.

Digitalização financeira e Pix corporativo

A expansão do Pix e integrações com plataformas de pagamento e logística aceleram liquidação e reduzem fricção no varejo e no B2B, melhorando capital de giro. Ao mesmo tempo, cresce a exigência de controles antifraude, KYC e integração bancária para operações internacionais.

EU ties deepen, standards rise

EU–Vietnam relations upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, accelerating cooperation on trade, infrastructure, “trusted” 5G, critical minerals and semiconductors. For exporters and investors, EVFTA opportunities expand but EU compliance demands tighten (ESG, origin, labour, CBAM reporting).