Inflation Components and Disinflation Trends

While headline inflation remains high, underlying price pressures show signs of easing, particularly in housing and utilities. Food price volatility due to environmental factors continues to drive inflation. The central bank monitors these trends closely to guide monetary policy and inflation expectations management.

Stock Market Recovery Potential

Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Pakistan Stock Exchange shows signs of a potential generational bull run. Monetary easing, fiscal discipline, and corporate resilience in sectors like banking, energy, and exports underpin optimism. However, undervaluation and political uncertainties continue to temper investor enthusiasm, requiring sustained reforms to unlock market potential.

Record Foreign Direct Investment Surge

Mexico experienced a 10.2% increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2025, reaching a historic $34.27 billion. The surge is driven by reinvested profits and new investments, with the U.S. as the largest investor. This inflow strengthens Mexico's position as a manufacturing and export hub, attracting multinational corporations despite global economic uncertainties.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks in Tech Sector

South Korea faces potential trade clashes due to new digital trade legislation perceived as discriminatory against US tech firms, while Chinese tech companies remain less affected. This regulatory environment risks escalating tensions with the US, impacting technology investments and bilateral trade relations. The situation necessitates balancing domestic policy objectives with international trade commitments to avoid economic fallout.

Record Foreign Reserves and Banking Assets

Egypt's net international reserves hit a historic $49.25bn in August 2025, bolstered by gold holdings and diversified assets. Concurrently, foreign assets in the banking sector rose sharply to $18.5bn in July. These financial buffers enhance currency stability, import capacity, and debt servicing ability, reducing macroeconomic risks and improving Egypt's attractiveness for trade and investment.

Shift in Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment

Foreign institutional investors are reallocating from large caps to small and mid-caps amid tariff concerns, while domestic investors continue to support markets. Sovereign rating upgrades and GST reforms are expected to attract fresh inflows, particularly benefiting banks, infrastructure, and real estate sectors, indicating evolving investor confidence and sectoral rotation.

September Market Volatility Risks

September historically presents heightened market volatility, compounded by political events such as US-Fed tensions and European political instability. Investors face increased risk from potential rate cuts, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical developments, necessitating cautious portfolio management and scenario planning.

Iran’s Rial Currency Collapse

The Iranian rial has plummeted to near-record lows amid fears of renewed sanctions and geopolitical instability. This currency depreciation inflates import costs, fuels inflation (potentially up to 90%), and erodes purchasing power, undermining domestic economic stability and complicating international trade and investment decisions.

Commodity Market Dynamics

Brazil's sugar market shows a disconnect between weak crop fundamentals and stable prices, influenced by global demand and speculative trading patterns. Coffee prices face upward pressure due to US tariffs, affecting retail prices domestically and export competitiveness, with implications for supply chain planning and commodity-dependent revenues.

Legal Risks for Businesses in Occupied Territories

Finnwatch warns companies operating in Israel and occupied territories face legal and ethical risks linked to alleged violations of international law and human rights abuses. Businesses may be implicated in complicity if due diligence is inadequate. This scrutiny could lead to reputational damage, legal challenges, and calls for divestment, impacting supply chains and investment decisions in the region.

Digital Economy and IT Market Expansion

Egypt's IT market is projected to nearly triple from $3.5bn in 2025 to $9.2bn by 2031, driven by government digital initiatives, 5G rollout, cloud adoption, and enterprise demand. Investments in infrastructure and cybersecurity, alongside export incentive programs, position Egypt as a growing digital hub, offering significant opportunities for technology investors and service providers.

Foreign Direct Investment Surge and Factory Leasing

Vietnam attracted $24.09 billion in registered FDI in early 2025, up 27.3% YoY, with manufacturing dominating. A notable trend is the preference for leasing ready-built factories, which accelerates project deployment and reduces upfront costs. This model supports industries requiring agility, such as electronics and medical equipment, reinforcing Vietnam's position as a competitive manufacturing hub amid global supply chain realignments.

Energy Sector Challenges and Opportunities

Mexico's energy sector faces challenges from overreliance on US natural gas imports and limited foreign investment in oil fields. Government focus on drug trade over energy reforms hampers economic potential, while investments in renewable energy projects signal a strategic shift towards sustainable power generation.

Political Instability and Leadership Changes

Thailand's frequent political upheavals, exemplified by the recent dismissal of PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, create uncertainty that disrupts policy continuity, investor confidence, and economic reforms. This instability hinders long-term growth strategies, deters foreign direct investment, and increases market volatility, posing significant risks for businesses and international investors operating in or with Thailand.

Tourism Sector Recovery and Challenges

Tourism, a vital contributor to Thailand's GDP, is rebounding post-pandemic but remains below pre-2019 levels. Border conflicts and global economic uncertainties pose risks to visitor arrivals and spending. Revitalizing tourism is essential for economic recovery, requiring stability and targeted support to sustain growth in this sector.

Economic Contraction and Stagnation

Germany's economy contracted by 0.3% in Q2 2025, revised down from an initial 0.1%, marking a deeper slowdown. Key sectors like manufacturing, construction, and investment declined, while exports fell and imports rose, weakening trade balance. This stagnation risks a third consecutive year of contraction, undermining Germany's role as Eurozone growth engine and complicating recovery prospects until 2026.

Mexico-U.S. Bilateral Security Cooperation

Mexico and the U.S. have established a new high-level bilateral security cooperation group focusing on cartel dismantling, border security, and illicit trafficking. Despite ongoing political tensions, this collaboration aims to enhance intelligence sharing and law enforcement coordination, impacting regional stability and investor confidence in Mexico's security environment.

Strained China-Israel Relations

The traditionally strong China-Israel partnership is under pressure due to escalating US-China tensions and China's shifting stance post-October 2023 conflicts. US pressure has curtailed Israeli technology exports to China, especially in semiconductors and AI, impacting bilateral trade and forcing Israeli firms to navigate complex geopolitical constraints, which may limit growth opportunities in the Chinese market.

USMCA Renegotiation Risks

The upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement poses significant uncertainty for Canadian trade, with potential US tariffs of up to 15% on Canadian goods. This threatens to disrupt supply chains, reduce business investment, and dampen economic growth, creating volatility for exporters and investors reliant on stable US-Canada trade relations.

Geopolitical Events and Market Volatility

Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, cause short-term market shocks but often lead to rapid recoveries. While events like Israel's strikes on Iran caused immediate stock declines, markets typically rebound within months. Investors should view such disruptions as transient, with long-term buying opportunities arising from geopolitical-induced market dips.

Domestic Market Cushioning Export Shocks

India’s large domestic market and government reforms, including tax cuts and GST rationalization, help cushion the economic impact of US tariffs. Growing urban demand and consumption support sectors less exposed to exports, maintaining overall economic stability and attracting continued foreign investment despite external shocks.

Vietnam's Consumer Sentiment and Domestic Market Potential

Vietnam leads ASEAN in consumer sentiment with a score of 67, reflecting optimism about economic, political, and social stability. Rising private consumption, supported by wage growth and employment opportunities, bolsters domestic demand. This positive sentiment enhances the attractiveness of Vietnam's market for both local and foreign businesses, complementing export-driven growth.

Government Spending and Infrastructure Investment

Recent reductions in government spending and public infrastructure investment may constrain long-term economic growth prospects. Lower fiscal stimulus could dampen demand and delay critical infrastructure projects, impacting supply chains and business operations reliant on public sector support.

Financial Crime Risk Management Lag

Canada's national risk assessment on money laundering and terrorist financing is infrequent and lacks depth compared to allies like the U.S., UK, and Australia. This gap hinders private sector crime-prevention efforts, potentially exposing Canadian financial institutions and businesses to elevated risks, undermining economic integrity and investor confidence.

Capital Market Innovations and Debt Instruments

Saudi financial markets have introduced new investment products and structural reforms, including proposals for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) on the Nomu Parallel Market. These innovations diversify investment vehicles, enhance market liquidity, and attract both domestic and foreign investors, supporting economic growth and financial sector development.

Currency Appreciation Challenges Exporters

The Taiwan dollar's sharp appreciation, rising about 12% this year, is squeezing exporters by eroding revenues and margins, especially in traditional manufacturing sectors. This currency strength, fueled by trade inflows and speculative activity, complicates competitiveness abroad and prompts cautious policy responses to stabilize markets without provoking international tensions.

Vietnam Fintech Market Expansion

Vietnam's fintech sector is rapidly growing, driven by digital payments, alternative financing, and insurtech adoption. With a young, tech-savvy population and supportive government policies, the market is projected to reach USD 50.2 billion by 2030. This expansion offers significant opportunities for investment and innovation in financial services, enhancing financial inclusion and economic diversification.

Domestic Market Resilience and Growth

Despite external shocks, India’s economy grew 7.8% in Q1 FY26, driven by private consumption and government spending. GST reforms with simplified tax slabs are expected to boost consumer sectors and capital-intensive industries. Domestic demand and policy continuity underpin market optimism, cushioning the economy from tariff-induced export shocks.

Construction Sector Contraction

Iran's construction industry is forecasted to contract by 0.6% in 2025 due to high inflation, political instability, and currency devaluation. Although growth is expected post-2025, ongoing conflict and economic challenges hinder infrastructure development, affecting sectors reliant on construction and delaying critical projects.

Impact of US Tariffs on Chinese Exports

US tariffs have significantly dampened demand for Chinese goods, with exports to the US falling 33% in August. While China boosts trade with ASEAN, EU, and other regions, the tariff-induced export slowdown exposes vulnerabilities in China's growth model, prompting policy reforms and a strategic pivot towards new trade corridors and multilateral partnerships to mitigate risks.

Declining Business Confidence

South African business confidence has slipped further in 2025, with surveys indicating a drop to 39 points, well below the long-term average of 42. This decline is driven by tariff pressures, high electricity costs, administrative burdens, and political uncertainties, which collectively undermine investment prospects and economic growth.

US-China Business Confidence Collapse

US companies' confidence in China has plummeted to a historic low of 41%, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, regulatory unpredictability, and slowing Chinese economic growth. This erosion of trust signals potential shifts in investment strategies, supply chain diversification away from China, and a reevaluation of long-term commitments, impacting bilateral trade and global economic stability.

Oil Production and Export Expansion

Iran targets significant oil and gas production increases in the West Karoun cluster, leveraging vast reserves and low lifting costs. Collaboration with China and Russia supports these ambitions despite sanctions. Enhanced production and export capacity could influence global energy markets and provide Iran with critical revenue streams amid economic pressures.

Political Risks Impacting Financial Ratings

Moody's downgraded Israel's sovereign credit rating citing political risks, diverging from other agencies. This politically influenced downgrade raises borrowing costs and restricts institutional investment, despite Israel's strong economic performance and market resilience. Such politicization of credit ratings introduces uncertainty for investors, potentially distorting market integrity and affecting Israel's financial reputation globally.

Chinese Investment and Manufacturing Expansion

Chinese companies are increasingly establishing manufacturing operations in Indonesia, driven by policy shifts, supply chain diversification, and Indonesia's large domestic market. China is the third largest foreign direct investor, contributing 14% of foreign investments in 2024, with strategic focus on renewable energy, semiconductors, digital economy, and export-oriented manufacturing, enhancing Indonesia's industrial base and export potential.

Geopolitical Tensions Impact Markets

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East tensions and Russia-Ukraine war, continue to influence global markets and commodity prices, especially oil. These events cause short-term volatility in equities and energy sectors, affecting investor sentiment and supply chains, though markets often recover quickly, highlighting the need for strategic risk management.