Oil export concentration to China

Iran’s crude exports remain resilient but highly concentrated: about 46.9 million barrels in January 2026 (~1.51 mb/d), with China absorbing most volumes via relabeling and ship‑to‑ship transfers (often through Malaysia). Any enforcement shift could rapidly reprice Asian feedstocks and freight.

Weather-driven bulk supply disruptions

Queensland wet weather, force majeures and port/logistics constraints tightened metallurgical coal availability, lifting benchmark prices (FOB Australia ~US$218/mt end-2025). Commodity buyers should expect episodic supply shocks, quality variation, and higher inventory/alternative sourcing needs.

DHS funding instability and disruptions

Recurring DHS funding standoffs and partial shutdowns threaten operational continuity for TSA, FEMA reimbursements, Coast Guard readiness, and CISA cybersecurity deployments, while ICE enforcement remains funded. Businesses should anticipate travel friction, disaster-recovery payment delays, and security-service gaps.

Nonbank credit and private markets substitution

As banks pull back, private credit and direct lenders fill financing gaps, often at higher spreads and with tighter covenants. This shifts refinancing risk to less transparent markets, raising cost of capital for midmarket firms that anchor US supply chains and overseas procurement networks.

İsrail ticaret kısıtları genişliyor

Ankara’nın İsrail’e yönelik ticaret tedbirlerini Eur-Med tercih belgelerini durdurmaya kadar genişlettiği bildirildi. Bu, gümrükte menşe ve tercihli tarife süreçlerini etkileyebilir. Bölgesel tedarik, ara malı akışı ve kontrat performansı için belirsizlik artar.

IMF program, refinancing pressure

Pakistan’s near-term macro path hinges on the IMF EFF/RSF reviews and continued rollovers from China, Saudi and UAE. Falling reserves (about $15.5bn) and a $1.3bn Eurobond due April 2026 elevate convertibility, payment and counterparty risk.

Semiconductor manufacturing scale-up

India is accelerating the India Semiconductor Mission: ISM 2.0 allocates ₹40,000 crore, while projects like the ₹3,700‑crore HCL–Foxconn OSAT aim for 20,000 wafers/month by 2027. Incentives attract supply-chain relocation but execution and ecosystem gaps remain.

Rising deception and trade opacity

Investigations uncovered a network of ~48 shell entities shipping over $90bn of Russian crude using shared infrastructure, short-lived firms, and opaque labeling. Compliance teams should expect higher documentation fraud, beneficial-ownership complexity, and elevated contractual and reputational risk.

Domestic demand rebalancing push

Beijing’s 2026 agenda prioritizes stimulating consumption and services, citing retail sales growth of 3.7% in 2025 and targeting final consumption near 60% of GDP over 2026–30. Opportunities rise in tourism, entertainment and services, but policy-driven competition intensifies.

Logistics chokepoints and Transnet fragility

Ports and rail constraints remain a binding growth and export risk. Treasury flags Transnet’s weak cash position despite lower losses, while infrastructure funding targets key coal and iron‑ore corridors. Persistent congestion raises costs, delays shipments, and reshapes supply-chain routing.

Technology dependence and import substitution gaps

Despite ‘technological sovereignty’ ambitions, Russia remains reliant on imported high-tech inputs; estimates suggest China supplies about 90% of microchips, and key sector self-sufficiency targets lag. Supply chains face quality, substitution, and single-supplier risks, plus heightened export-control exposure.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing sanctioned 40 Japanese entities, restricting exports of dual-use goods to 20 and putting 20 more on a watch list. Escalation over security tensions raises supply-chain disruption risk for aerospace, electronics and automotive, plus countermeasure uncertainty.

Défense: hausse des dépenses 2026

Le budget 2026 prévoit 57,2 Md€ pour les armées (+13%) et une actualisation de la LPM attendue au printemps. Opportunités: marchés défense, cybersécurité, drones; contraintes: conformité export, priorités industrielles, tensions sur capacités et main-d’œuvre.

Fiscal stimulus versus debt sustainability

Takaichi’s coalition is pushing tax relief (notably a proposed two‑year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax) alongside spending plans, while IMF warns against fiscal loosening given high debt and rising interest costs. Policy mix uncertainty can move JGB yields, FX, and domestic demand.

Energy supply and gas export volatility

Security assessments can halt offshore gas production (e.g., Leviathan/Energean), tightening domestic power margins and affecting gas exports to regional buyers. Industrial users may face fuel switching, price volatility, and contractual disputes, complicating energy‑intensive manufacturing and investment planning.

Trade controls and import compliance push

France is intensifying border and market inspections on origin, labeling, and pesticide residues, backed by new 2026 thresholds and specialized enforcement teams. Importers face higher testing, delays, and documentation demands, raising compliance costs and rejection risk.

Workforce bottlenecks in SHK trades

Skilled‑labor shortages in sanitary/heating/AC and related vocational pipelines constrain installation rates for heat pumps and network connections. For international firms, the bottleneck shifts value toward training partnerships, prefabrication, and service models—while increasing project delivery risk and warranty exposure.

Nominee crackdown and AML scrutiny

Authorities will probe 110,000 foreign-invested firms for nominee structures and shell accounts, with penalties up to three years’ jail and THB1m fines. This raises compliance, KYC/AML and corporate-structure risk for foreign investors, advisors and real-estate-linked operations.

BOI Fast Pass investment surge

Government is accelerating roughly THB480bn of BOI-approved projects via “Fast Pass,” targeting over THB1.1tn total investment in 2026. This boosts near-term capex, industrial demand, and supplier opportunities, but increases competition for land, utilities, and skilled labor.

Sanctions escalation and extraterritorial risk

EU’s proposed 20th package shifts from price caps toward a full maritime-services ban on Russian crude, adds ports and banks in third countries, and expands tech export bans. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure, compliance costs, and deal-break risks for global firms.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

LNG buildout and gas transition

Vietnam is scaling LNG to reduce domestic gas decline and support industry. PV Gas is advancing 1–3 mtpa Bac Trung Bo LNG (Phase 1 around 2029–2030) and investing >VND 100 trillion through 2030. LNG infrastructure reshapes fuel costs, contracting, and port logistics.

Post-election coalition policy continuity

A Bhumjaithai-led coalition has reduced near-term political uncertainty, supporting foreign portfolio inflows and business confidence, yet cabinet allocation and reform pace remain watchpoints. Investors should monitor budget timing, regulatory direction, and the durability of the 295-seat coalition majority.

Energy costs and grid constraints

Energy bills are easing but UK power prices remain sensitive to gas-linked marginal pricing and network constraints. Grid connection queues and infrastructure upgrades influence industrial siting and operating costs, pushing energy-intensive firms toward PPAs, self-generation and resilience planning.

Investor confidence, market governance risks

Kekhawatiran atas arah kebijakan era Prabowo—termasuk peran Danantara, potensi akuisisi aset, dan isu independensi bank sentral—memicu volatilitas pasar, peringatan MSCI, serta outlook Moody’s negatif. Perusahaan multinasional perlu menilai risiko pembiayaan, valuasi aset, serta perubahan aturan free-float dan transparansi pasar.

Tariff whiplash and uncertainty

A Supreme Court ruling invalidated broad IEEPA-based tariffs, but the administration quickly pivoted to a temporary 10–15% global surcharge under Section 122 (150-day limit). Firms face pricing volatility, contract renegotiations, and elevated country-allocation risk.

High-tech FDI and semiconductor scaling

FDI remains strong with US$38.42bn registered in 2025 and US$27.62bn realised (highest 2021–25). Policy emphasis is shifting toward electronics, semiconductors, AI and rare earths, deepening supplier ecosystems but increasing competition for skilled labour and land.

Digital markets enforcement on platforms

The UK CMA secured proposed commitments from Apple and Google to improve app-store fairness, limit use of rivals’ non‑public data, and expand interoperability. This signals tougher UK digital regulation, affecting monetization models, developer access, and platform compliance obligations.

Power market reform execution risk

Government is unbundling Eskom and establishing an independent transmission system operator ahead of wholesale market rollout from April 2026, but timelines, market rules, wheeling and tariff design remain contested. Delays raise outage and cost risks for industry and investors.

Critical minerals processing incentives

India plans incentives for lithium and nickel processing, including ~15% capex subsidies from April 2026 and capped sales-linked support, initially for four projects. This reshapes EV-battery and clean-tech sourcing, reducing China dependence but requiring partners with technology, ESG compliance, and long lead times.

Macro volatility: shekel and rates

Inflation has eased to around 1.8–2.0%, reopening prospects for Bank of Israel rate cuts, but geopolitical headlines drive sharp shekel swings. This complicates pricing, hedging, and capital planning for exporters/importers, and can change local financing conditions quickly.

Fiscal deadlock and tax volatility

France’s 2026 budget passed via Article 49.3 after ~25,000 amendments, with a projected 5.4% GDP deficit. Corporate surtaxes and production-tax uncertainty raise planning risk for multinationals, affecting pricing, capex timing, and location decisions amid 2027 election volatility.

Inversión extranjera: más reinversión

Aunque la IED alcanzó ~US$41,000 millones hasta 3T2025 (+15% interanual), solo ~US$6,500 millones fueron proyectos nuevos. La cautela privada se asocia a incertidumbre regulatoria y comercial, afectando pipelines de nearshoring, alianzas y financiamiento de nuevas plantas.

Tariff volatility and legal risk

U.S. tariff policy remains highly volatile, with rates rising sharply in 2025 (average tariff reportedly from ~2.6% to ~13%) and courts scrutinizing executive authority. Importers face pricing shocks, rushed front‑loading, contract renegotiations, and compliance costs.

Foreign investment scrutiny and approvals

National-security sensitivities (e.g., critical infrastructure and strategic assets) keep FIRB review stringent, affecting deal timelines, conditions and ownership structures. Investors should plan for pre-lodgement engagement, mitigation undertakings, and heightened scrutiny of state-linked capital sources.

Sanctions escalation and secondary risk

U.S. “maximum pressure” is widening from designations to potential tanker seizures, raising secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑U.S. firms. Recent actions target dozens of entities and 12+ vessels, tightening compliance, contracting, and reputational risks across energy, shipping, and trading.