FDI slowdown from security risks

Investor sentiment is deteriorating as insecurity and governance concerns weigh on capital inflows. Net foreign direct investment reportedly fell to $1.6 billion this year, about one-third below the previous year, while Barrick postponed its $9 billion Reko Diq project after militant attacks.

Security cooperation shapes operations

Ankara and Baghdad are deepening counterterrorism coordination against the PKK, backed by prior security agreements and a joint coordination center. For companies, stronger cooperation may support transport security in northern corridors, though regional military activity still raises operational and insurance risk.

Ministry Restructured to Prioritize Energy

Singapore renamed its Ministry of Trade and Industry to Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry from October 2026, with a dedicated energy minister addressing oil price volatility, low-carbon electricity imports, and nuclear energy assessment by the UN watchdog in 2027.

Trade Policy Drives Investment Leverage

Recent reporting shows the administration is using tariff threats to extract investment commitments, market-opening concessions, and faster implementation of foreign pledges. For international companies, U.S. market access increasingly depends on politically sensitive investment, localization, and procurement decisions rather than stable rules.

Energy price and supply stress

UK businesses face rising energy and shipping costs as Iran-related disruption lifts export costs to a three-year high. With only three to four days of gas storage and Ofgem’s cap potentially reaching £1,911, margins, inflation and operating resilience are under pressure.

Indonesia partnership expands regional integration

Thailand and Indonesia adopted a 2026–2030 strategic partnership roadmap covering trade, investment, energy, food security, digital economy, and logistics links, with bilateral trade around US$17 billion and ambitions to reach US$20 billion or more by 2030.

Energy security drives contingency investment

With 95% of energy imported and natural gas supplying about half of electricity generation, Taiwan is evaluating floating LNG units, larger reserves, rerouting exercises, and even nuclear restart options. Energy resilience is becoming a central variable for industrial continuity and investor risk assessment.

China supply-chain leverage persists

Articles highlight continued dependence on Chinese processing and export controls across rare earths and related minerals, with China still holding close to 90% of global refining capacity in some segments, creating pricing, sourcing and technology-transfer risks for Australian projects and partners.

Iran Trade Corridor Expands

Pakistan and Iran are pushing to raise bilateral trade from roughly $3 billion to $10 billion, supported by 24/7 border crossings, customs harmonization, transit routes via Karachi and Gwadar, and ongoing FTA talks. This could open new regional trade and logistics opportunities.

Inversión afectada por seguridad jurídica

La cobertura subraya que seguridad pública, Estado de derecho, corrupción y cambios regulatorios siguen entre los principales obstáculos para crecer. Estas preocupaciones, junto con disputas energéticas y reforma judicial, pueden elevar primas de riesgo, demorar proyectos y limitar nueva inversión productiva.

Municipal energy costs pressure firms

Nelson Mandela Bay’s disputed electricity tariff changes, including a 10.95% increase and removal of subsidised block tariffs, have sharply raised bills for households and small firms. Continued local tariff and outage pressures can erode margins, pricing competitiveness, and investment attractiveness.

Tariffs Raising Domestic Costs

Recent reporting indicates American businesses and consumers bear roughly 90% of tariff costs, while prior Section 122 duties required $166 billion in repayments. Higher import costs are pressuring margins, household demand, procurement strategies, and competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturing.

Europe gas sourcing demand

Turkey says European buyers want gas supplies routed through Turkey provided they are non-Russian, while Ankara expands LNG arrangements with ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Mercuria. This creates potential midstream and trading opportunities but also origin-tracing and compliance complexities.

IMF-backed reform momentum continues

The IMF approved about $1.8 billion in fresh financing, bringing total disbursements to roughly $7.3 billion, while endorsing exchange-rate flexibility, energy-price adjustments and fiscal discipline. For investors, reform continuity supports macro stability, but implementation risk remains materially important.

Energy shocks pressure industry

Middle East conflict and disruption around Hormuz are pushing up French oil and gas import costs, feeding inflation, higher borrowing costs and weaker growth. Energy-intensive sectors and transport operators face renewed margin pressure, while policy volatility around subsidies may increase.

Municipal Finance Weaknesses Persist

Treasury’s temporary withholding and later release of roughly R13 billion to poorly performing municipalities exposed deep accountability failures in local government. For business, this signals ongoing risk to water, electricity and basic services in key metros, with direct implications for operating continuity.

Egypt attracts strategic FDI

UNCTAD reported Egypt received $15.45 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, remaining Africa’s top FDI destination for a fourth year. Excluding the exceptional Ras Al-Hikma deal, core inflows rose 25%, reinforcing Egypt’s role as a regional investment platform.

US secondary sanctions escalation

The U.S. Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill authorizing tariffs up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy and broader measures on banks, officials and state firms, sharply raising compliance, trade-routing and counterparty risks across Russia-linked international commerce.

Secondary tariff threat reshapes demand

The U.S. Senate advanced and then passed legislation enabling tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, especially China and India, potentially disrupting demand channels, pricing dynamics and global trade flows tied to Russian energy.

Regional supply chain integration

Thai officials framed closer ties with Indonesia as a way to strengthen ASEAN supply chains, widen markets for Thai goods and services, and encourage two-way investment. This points to deeper regional sourcing, distribution and production linkages for internationally exposed companies.

Export Proceeds Controls Tighten

Indonesia’s new DHE rules require natural-resource exporters to repatriate 100% of proceeds, with retention periods of three months for oil and gas and 12 months for non-oil sectors. The policy improves domestic FX liquidity but may tighten treasury flexibility for commodity exporters.

China Exposure Repriced Politically

German public and elite attitudes toward China are hardening, with 49% of surveyed voters viewing China as a rival or adversary. This political shift increases the likelihood of stricter trade, investment and resilience policies, complicating long-term planning for China-linked corporate strategies.

Equity Volatility Reshapes Investment

A leverage-driven market correction erased roughly 40% from the KOSPI from its June peak, while retail investors lost nearly $39 billion. Regulators are tightening safeguards, but continued volatility may affect fundraising conditions, valuations, and foreign investor entry points, especially in technology sectors.

BOJ tightening expectations reshape markets

After lifting rates to 1%, the Bank of Japan signaled scope for another hike, with one report citing a 72% probability of tightening before October. Changing rate expectations affect financing structures, FX assumptions, valuation models, and repatriation strategies for multinational companies.

Iran gas contract uncertainty

Turkey’s 25-year gas agreement with Iran expired on July 29 without renewal, as conflict disrupted negotiations. Although flows continue, uncertainty around a supply source worth 7.7 bcm in 2025 data adds procurement, pricing, and contingency planning risks for energy-intensive business.

Conflict-driven energy shockwaves

Brent crude briefly touched $102 a barrel and was still about 35% above July 1 levels, while disruptions around Iran also lifted refined-product and gas prices, threatening higher input costs, supply-chain inflation and sourcing pressure across transport, manufacturing and petrochemical sectors.

Security crises broaden operational disruption

Conflict has intensified across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, with 12,889 events and 17,105 reported fatalities since 2020 in one OSINT compilation. Rising attacks on transport links, infrastructure and personnel increase insurance, compliance, workforce and supply-chain disruption risks for businesses.

Critical Minerals Beneficiation Drive

South Africa is positioning itself as a regional processing hub for cobalt, lithium and battery materials, leveraging existing chemical infrastructure and mineral reserves. The opportunity is significant, but investors still need reliable energy, transport links and policy follow-through before value-added supply chains scale.

Secondary sanctions pressure intensifies

A U.S. Senate bill passed 86-11 would authorize tariffs of up to 100% on imports from major buyers of Russian oil and gas, heightening exposure for counterparties in China, India, and Turkey and complicating long-term trade planning.

Critical minerals decoupling accelerates

U.S. measures to curb reliance on Chinese minerals, alongside Chinese retaliation and tightened controls, are speeding allied diversification efforts. However, reports highlight large investment needs and limited short-term substitutes, suggesting prolonged transition risk for manufacturers dependent on Chinese refined materials.

Pharmaceutical sector faces new risk

US plans for phased generic-drug tariffs, beginning at 100% in 2028 and rising to 200% in 2029, directly threaten a sector where India supplies about 40% of US generic demand, raising long-term relocation and compliance questions for manufacturers.

Rules-based trade and WTO alignment

Vietnam is actively seeking WTO support on trade policy, digital trade, dispute settlement, and investment facilitation while preparing for a late-2026 Trade Policy Review. This signals continued regulatory modernization that could improve transparency, market access planning, and investor confidence.

Tourism model shifts to sustainability

Thailand is reorienting tourism toward lower-carbon and more sustainable growth, but fragmented standards, infrastructure strain, safety concerns, and uneven capacity between large and small operators could raise compliance costs and operational complexity across hospitality and travel supply chains.

Red Sea export corridor risk

Houthi attacks and blockade threats against Bab al-Mandeb and Yanbu have turned Saudi Arabia’s main alternative oil route into a major vulnerability, raising shipping risk, insurance costs, and potential delays for energy buyers, traders, refiners, and adjacent industrial supply chains.

Agribusiness gains global leverage

Brazil’s agricultural exports reached US$169.2 billion in 2025, close to the US at US$171 billion, with China buying US$55.3 billion, or 32.7%. The sector’s scale strengthens Brazil’s trade position, but infrastructure bottlenecks and environmental scrutiny remain material constraints.

Sector exposure to US measures

The US tariff package hits roughly 15% of Brazil’s exports to the American market, with wood, furniture, machinery, footwear, ceramics, and sugar identified as most exposed. Companies in these sectors face margin compression, rerouting pressures, and greater dependence on commercial diplomacy.