Supply chain bottlenecks in nickel

Nickel supply chains face short-term disruption from delayed mine work-plan approvals, weather-related mining interruptions and a tailings-dam incident affecting MHP operations. Tight saprolite availability has pushed delivered ore prices above $67 per wmt, raising procurement risk for battery and metals producers.

Trade Deal Rewires Access

India’s 2026 trade push, including the EU FTA and lower U.S. reciprocal tariffs, materially improves export access and sourcing economics. Duty elimination across 70.4% of tariff lines reshapes market-entry planning, manufacturing location decisions, and supply-chain diversification for multinationals.

Steel Protectionism Reshapes Inputs

London has pivoted toward industrial protection, cutting steel import quotas 60% from July and imposing 50% tariffs above quota while targeting 50% domestic sourcing. Manufacturers, construction firms and foreign suppliers face higher input costs, procurement shifts and new market-access barriers.

Security Screening Shapes Investment

US national-security scrutiny of inbound and outbound capital is becoming more consequential, especially for technology, data, and China-linked transactions. Expanding CFIUS-related compliance and investment screening raise execution risk for acquisitions, joint ventures, minority stakes, and cross-border partnerships involving sensitive sectors or foreign investors.

Neom Scale-Back and Repricing

Recent contract cancellations at Neom, including Webuild’s roughly $5 billion Trojena dam deal, signal rising execution and counterparty risk in giga-projects. International contractors should expect scope revisions, slower awards, payment scrutiny, and a pivot toward commercially bankable industrial and digital assets.

Sanctions Tightening And Evasion

U.S. enforcement is intensifying against tankers, front companies, Chinese teapot refiners, and parallel payment networks tied to Iranian oil. Businesses face growing exposure from disguised cargo origins, AIS manipulation, shell-company transactions, and potential anti-terror or sanctions violations across shipping and trade finance.

China Tensions Threaten Critical Inputs

US-China trade friction remains acute as new tariff probes coincide with warnings of Chinese retaliation, including rare earths and soybean purchases. This elevates risk for electronics, autos, defense-related manufacturing, and firms dependent on Chinese minerals, components, or market access.

US-China Trade Probe Escalation

Beijing opened two six-month investigations into US trade barriers on March 27, targeting restrictions on Chinese goods, high-tech exports and green products. The move raises tariff, retaliation and compliance risks for exporters, manufacturers and investors exposed to US-China supply chains.

Political reset under Anutin

Prime Minister Anutin’s new coalition brings short-term policy continuity but does not remove political risk. Businesses must track border tensions with Cambodia, economic management capacity and whether the government can restore investor confidence amid weak growth and external shocks.

US tariff reset, FTA acceleration

US tariffs shifting to a 15% uniform rate for 150 days narrows Thailand’s disadvantage (previously ~19% on some goods), encouraging shipment front-loading. Thailand is accelerating FTAs (EU, Korea, ASEAN-Canada), reshaping market access and sourcing strategies.

Deflation and Weak Consumer Demand

Persistent deflationary pressure and subdued household spending are weighing on pricing power and revenue growth. Producer prices have remained negative, retail sales growth has been modest, and weak labor-market confidence is encouraging precautionary saving, challenging foreign brands, retailers and discretionary sectors.

Fuel Shock and Inflation Risks

Oil disruption linked to Middle East conflict is pushing Brent above $100 and implies steep April fuel hikes of roughly R4 per litre for petrol and nearly R7 for diesel. Higher transport and input costs threaten margins, inflation, consumer demand and operating budgets.

Trade Policy Turning More Selective

The UK is pairing new trade deals with more targeted protection of strategic sectors, especially steel. This marks a departure from a purely liberal trade stance, increasing policy complexity for exporters, importers and investors assessing future tariff, quota and local-content exposure.

Battery Supply Chain Realignment

U.S. defense decoupling from Chinese batteries is opening opportunities for Korean producers such as Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution and SK On. For investors, this creates new long-term demand streams beyond EVs, especially in standardized defense and aerospace applications.

Maritime route disruption and port congestion

Strait of Hormuz disruptions are diverting regional transshipment to Karachi/Port Qasim, but congestion, war-risk premiums and documentation disputes increase demurrage and lead times. Exporters/importers should plan alternate routings, buffer stocks and tighter Incoterms risk allocation.

Higher yields strain public finances

Gilt yields jumped (10-year near post-2008 highs) as markets priced fewer cuts or hikes, increasing debt-servicing pressure on a ~£3 trillion stock. Tighter fiscal headroom elevates risk of future consolidation, affecting public procurement, infrastructure pipelines, and regulated-sector returns.

BOJ Tightening And Yen Volatility

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but signaled further hikes remain possible. With markets assigning meaningful odds to an April move and the yen near 159 per dollar, firms face rising hedging, financing and cross-border pricing risks.

China Competition In Advanced Tech

Chinese chipmakers are advancing during the memory upcycle, while Huawei-led substitution is gaining ground under US controls. For Korean exporters, this threatens long-term market share, technology standards alignment and pricing power across semiconductors, batteries and adjacent advanced-manufacturing sectors.

Expanded Trade Enforcement Wave

The U.S. has opened sweeping Section 301 investigations into industrial overcapacity across 16 economies and forced-labor enforcement across about 60. Sectors flagged include autos, semiconductors, batteries, steel and solar, raising risks of new duties, compliance burdens, and supplier reshuffling.

Inflation And Financing Pressures Build

With reserves under strain and the budget rule suspended, Russia is leaning more on domestic borrowing, weaker reserve buffers, and possible tax hikes. This raises inflation, currency, and interest-rate risks, complicating pricing, wage planning, consumer demand forecasts, and local financing conditions for businesses.

Conflict Disrupts Export Logistics

War-related shipping and air-cargo disruptions are raising freight rates, surcharges, congestion, and transit times for Indian exporters in textiles, chemicals, engineering, and agriculture. International firms should expect elevated logistics volatility, rerouting requirements, and working-capital pressure across India-linked trade corridors.

Energy shock lifts inflation, rates

Middle East conflict-driven oil and gas spikes are pushing UK CPI toward ~3–3.5% and forcing the Bank of England to hold 3.75% (and signal possible hikes). Higher funding, mortgage and hedging costs tighten credit and capex appetite for multinationals.

Labor and Execution Risks

Large industrial investment plans face operational risks from labor tensions, including a possible Samsung union strike, and from project delays in defense and advanced manufacturing. Such disruptions could affect production continuity, customer delivery commitments, and capital spending timelines.

Inflation, Rates and Shekel Volatility

The Bank of Israel held rates at 4% as war-driven energy costs, wage pressures and supply constraints lifted inflation risks. Fuel could exceed NIS 8 per liter, while shekel volatility complicates pricing, hedging and tax planning for importers, exporters and multinationals.

Border Infrastructure Capacity Upgrade

Ukraine is investing to ease chronic logistics friction through checkpoint modernization and new crossings toward EU markets. Planned upgrades at Porubne, Luzhanka and Uzhhorod, plus a new Romania crossing, aim to lift throughput to at least 1,000 trucks daily and reduce queue times.

Regional war disrupts commerce

Conflict linked to Iran and Gaza remains the dominant business risk, driving airspace restrictions, border uncertainty and elevated insurance costs. Ben-Gurion operations were cut to one flight an hour, while repeated security shifts complicate travel, logistics planning and continuity management.

FTA Push Expands Market Access

India is pursuing a more outward trade strategy through agreements with the EU, UK, Oman, EFTA, and the US. Recent terms include zero-duty access for many Indian exports and tariff reductions abroad, improving long-term export opportunities while raising competitive pressure in protected domestic sectors.

Shadow Trade And Payment Networks

Iran’s external trade increasingly relies on shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers, shell companies and parallel banking channels, often routed through China and Hong Kong. This raises sanctions-screening, counterparty, AML and reputational risks for firms exposed to regional shipping, commodities or finance.

Red Sea Logistics Hub

Saudi Arabia is rapidly strengthening its role as a regional logistics fallback. New shipping services, a Khorfakkan-Dammam corridor, and a 1,700-km rail link to Jordan are cutting transit times, supporting cargo continuity and improving resilience for multinational supply chains.

AI chip export controls volatility

Washington is drafting—and then pulling back—new global licensing rules for advanced AI chips, while aggressively enforcing existing controls after major diversion cases. Multinationals face uncertainty in approvals, re-export risk, compliance audits, and data-center procurement timelines.

Nuclear Policy Reversal Reshapes Power

Taipei is moving to restart Guosheng and Ma-anshan nuclear plants, with possible reactivation from 2028-2029 pending safety reviews. The shift reflects AI-driven electricity demand, decarbonization pressures and supply-security concerns, affecting long-term industrial power pricing, grid reliability and investment planning.

Import Volumes And Logistics Softness

Tariff uncertainty is already suppressing U.S. goods flows. January container imports were 2.08 million TEU, down 6.4% year-on-year, while first-half 2026 volumes are forecast at 12.21 million TEU, 2.5% below 2025, complicating inventory planning, shipping contracts, and port-dependent operations.

Housing And Grid Constraints Squeeze

Severe housing shortages and electricity-grid limits are becoming operational constraints, especially around Eindhoven and other growth hubs. With a 400,000-home shortfall and rapid talent inflows, companies may face higher labor costs, recruitment friction, infrastructure strain and delayed expansion plans.

Industrial Policy Reshoring Frictions

Reshoring remains strategically favored, yet tariffs on machinery, steel, and components are raising capital costs for US manufacturers. Industry groups warn domestic capacity is insufficient in key equipment categories, so aggressive protection may delay investment, weaken competitiveness, and disrupt localization timelines.

Power Constraints Threaten Manufacturing

Electricity demand is rising about 8-10% annually, outpacing supply growth and tightening reserve margins. Dry-season shortages, hydropower variability, fuel import dependence and grid bottlenecks threaten factory continuity, raise energy costs and could deter new investment in industrial zones.

Labour relations and strike exposure

Union wage disputes and periodic strikes remain a practical operational risk for transport, mining, and manufacturing supply chains. SATAWU signaled potential bus strikes around peak travel periods after wage talks deadlocked, raising last-mile disruption risk and staffing/access issues.