Investment climate reforms and incentives

Government is advancing a 2025–26 investment action plan: 16 new industrial zones (59,019 hectares), 324 prioritized investments across 81 provinces, and expanded export-credit support (e.g., 58.6B TL via guarantee schemes). This improves site availability but may come with local-content and permitting conditions.

Energy-price shock exposure via gas

Despite power resilience, France remains exposed to gas-market spikes through indexed contracts and industrial feedstock costs. Around 60% of gas subscribers are on indexed offers; Bercy expects impacts from May, typically under €10/month for households, but higher for energy-intensive firms.

Commerce UE-Mercosur et mesures miroirs

L’application provisoire de l’accord UE‑Mercosur ravive la contestation agricole et le débat sur l’interdiction d’importations non conformes aux normes françaises (pesticides). Risques de nouvelles exigences SPS, contrôles frontière et tensions commerciales impactant agroalimentaire et distribution.

Labor shortages and mobilization pressures

Mobilization, displacement, and emigration shrink labor supply, pushing wage inflation and raising execution risk for labor-intensive projects. Companies rely more on women, veterans, reskilling programs, and automation; staffing volatility affects timelines, safety, and project pricing.

EU gas exit and volatility

Despite continued EU purchases of Russian LNG in the billions of euros, Europe is moving toward a full ban on Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Firms should plan for abrupt contract and price shifts, infrastructure bottlenecks, and renewed competition for alternative LNG supply.

Shadow fleet oil to China

Iran sustains exports via an IRGC-linked “shadow fleet” (estimated 400–430 tankers) using AIS blackouts, flag-hopping and ship-to-ship transfers. Flows of ~1.1–1.6 mb/d largely to China at 6–10% discounts reshape energy trade and raise counterparty, fraud and reputational risks.

EU value-chain integration under pressure

EU industrial policy drafts acknowledging Turkey in “Made in EU” criteria underscore Customs Union-linked integration, especially automotive and materials. Yet rising low-carbon and local-content requirements could reshape supplier qualification, traceability, and capex needs for Turkish exporters and EU investors.

Export competitiveness squeeze in textiles

Textiles face a severe downturn: 2025 exports just over €14bn, ~25% below 2022, with >4,500 firm closures and production shifts to Egypt. High wages, rates, and a defended lira erode competitiveness, affecting sourcing decisions and supplier resilience.

Mining policy, royalties and logistics drag

Mining attractiveness improved slightly, but South Africa still ranks near the bottom on policy perception. Rising administered costs (electricity, port/rail charges), regulatory uncertainty, and export corridor constraints depress output and exploration, affecting critical-minerals availability and downstream industrial projects.

Aviation And Tourism Demand Volatility

Tourism and aviation expansion continues—Saudia carried ~27m tourists/visitors in 2025 toward a 150m-visitor 2030 target—but regional airspace disruptions are causing periodic route suspensions and reroutings. Businesses reliant on travel, events or air cargo should build redundancy in itineraries and inventory.

Privatisation and SOE governance reform

IMF-backed plans to privatise/restructure state firms and “right-size” government (54,000 positions slated for abolition by end-2025) could unlock opportunities, but repeated delays and legal changes create execution risk, affecting deal timelines, valuations and market entry strategies.

Sanctions compliance and fuel traceability

Australia expanded Russia sanctions to its largest package since 2022, including shadow-fleet vessels and crypto facilitators, while debate grows over banning ‘spliced’ refined fuels. Firms face heightened due diligence expectations on shipping, counterparties, and origin tracing across energy supply chains.

China trade balancing and tariffs

Mexico imposed tariffs up to 50% on many Asian imports and held renewed trade talks with China, while U.S. pressure during USMCA review targets non-regional inputs. Firms reliant on China-linked components face policy volatility, substitution costs, and potential reputational and compliance exposure.

Investment governance reset under Vision 2030

A new investment minister from the $925bn PIF signals a pivot from headline giga-project spend toward investment-driven growth in logistics, mining and AI. With 2024 FDI inflows at 119.2bn riyals ($32bn) versus a $100bn annual 2030 goal, investors should expect policy recalibration and prioritization.

Tighter financial integrity and crypto controls

Authorities and industry are intensifying AML enforcement to curb scam and mule-account flows. Crypto operators froze 10,000+ suspicious accounts using a 24-hour “Speed Bump” on transfers ≥50,000 baht, increasing compliance burdens and frictions for legitimate cross-border payments.

Tariff volatility and legal resets

Supreme Court limits IEEPA tariffs, triggering refunds and a temporary 10% Section 122 surcharge with talk of 15%. USTR has opened broad Section 301 probes to rebuild tariff leverage. Expect rapid rule changes, higher landed costs, and planning uncertainty.

Retaliation risk on EU territory

Iran-linked drone and missile activity has already raised concerns around European-linked facilities in the region, including Cyprus and Gulf bases. Companies should elevate duty-of-care, crisis evacuation plans, and continuity measures for staff, data, and assets.

Renewables manufacturing and grid buildout

Government-backed projects in silicon, PV wafers, rare earths and magnetite aim to localise decarbonisation supply chains and reduce import dependence. This creates opportunities in equipment, EPC, logistics, and offtake, but execution hinges on permitting, infrastructure readiness, and skills availability.

Contrôle accru des investissements étrangers

Paris prépare un durcissement de la doctrine IEF (mission parlementaire) et pourrait étendre les secteurs sensibles. Pour les investisseurs, davantage de notifications, délais et remèdes (gouvernance, localisation, R&D), avec incertitudes accrues pour acquisitions, JV et transferts technologiques.

China semiconductor supply-chain bans

A proposed FAR rule implementing NDAA Section 5949 would bar US federal procurement of electronics containing “covered” semiconductors linked to entities such as SMIC, YMTC, and CXMT, with certifications and 72‑hour reporting. Contractors must map components and redesign supply chains ahead of 2027 deadlines.

Fiscal rules and investment capacity

Debate over reforming Germany’s debt brake shapes the scale and timing of infrastructure, climate, and security spending. Coalition tension creates policy uncertainty for public procurement, PPP pipelines, and tax/fee trajectories—affecting investment planning, demand outlook, and funding availability.

DHS funding shutdown operational risk

Political standoffs over immigration enforcement raised the risk of a partial DHS shutdown, potentially delaying TSA and Coast Guard pay and straining airport operations over time. Even if border functions continue, disruptions can affect logistics timing, travel-dependent services, and contractor payments.

Semiconductor industrial policy surge

Tokyo is deepening state support for domestic chips: Rapidus received ¥267.6bn new funding, with government taking 11.5% voting rights plus a golden share, and targeting 2nm production by 2027—reshaping supplier opportunities and security screening.

Réindustrialisation UE et règles “Made in Europe”

Les initiatives européennes de préférence locale (ex. 70% de contenu européen pour véhicules aidés) gagnent du terrain, portées par Paris. Cela reconfigure les stratégies d’implantation, sourcing et subventions, tout en augmentant le risque de contentieux et de rétorsions commerciales.

Hormuz disruption and export rerouting

The US–Israel–Iran war has severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic, forcing Saudi crude and cargo to reroute via the East‑West pipeline and Red Sea ports like Yanbu. Higher freight/insurance and chokepoint risk elevate supply‑chain contingency planning.

Critical minerals alliances surge

Canada is accelerating critical-mininerals diplomacy and project financing, announcing 30 new partnerships and $12.1B in mobilized project capital (total $18.5B). This strengthens allied supply chains for defense and clean tech, but raises permitting, ESG, and Indigenous engagement demands.

Energy infrastructure and export chokepoints

Iran’s exports remain concentrated at Kharg Island, while the Jask terminal offers limited bypass capacity but slower loading. Strikes, sabotage, or operational constraints can quickly reduce throughput, amplifying volatility in regional petrochemicals, shipping availability, and upstream service demand.

Critical minerals as strategic leverage

China is tightening long-term planning for rare earths and export controls, while shortages persist abroad (yttrium/scandium) despite partial easing. This raises sudden supply-stop risk for aerospace, EVs and semiconductors, driving diversification, stockpiling and compliance costs.

IMF programme and fiscal tightening

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews drive tax hikes, spending cuts, and governance reforms amid FBR revenue shortfalls (≈Rs429bn in 8MFY26). This shapes budget priorities, contract certainty, and public-sector payment risks, affecting investor confidence and deal timelines.

Regulatory push to unlock FDI

Government plans “BOI Fast Pass” and an omnibus investment law to streamline land, permits and investor visas, targeting 900bn baht of realised investment from 1.8tn baht applications. Faster approvals aid greenfield projects, but legal changes create transition risk for existing operators.

China exposure and trade rebalancing

Despite stabilisation efforts, Australia’s trade remains highly exposed to China demand for commodities and to Beijing’s capacity for informal coercion. Firms should diversify customers and inputs, stress-test for renewed restrictions, and reassess pricing power and contract enforceability in China-linked supply chains.

EV incentives, China brand rise

Battery‑electric demand is muted despite a promised Umweltbonus up to €6,000 announced in January but only appliable from May, delaying private purchases. Commercial sales dominate (68.5%). Chinese brands reached 2.97% market share Jan–Feb 2026, intensifying competitive pressure.

Escalating strikes on infrastructure

Russia’s intensified drone and missile campaign is repeatedly hitting energy, rail, and port assets, triggering blackouts, heating failures, and logistics disruptions. Businesses face higher downtime risk, added protection costs, and volatile delivery schedules, especially for exporters reliant on fixed corridors.

Tightening AML, crypto and transparency

Post-greylist, regulators are intensifying AML/CFT enforcement: crypto “travel rule” implementation, tighter SARS reporting, and proposed fines up to 10% of turnover for beneficial-ownership noncompliance. This raises due diligence, onboarding, KYC and data-governance costs, but improves banking and partner-risk perceptions.

Freight rail and port bottlenecks

Transnet’s rail and port capacity remains a binding constraint: debt around R144bn, interest near R15bn/year, and a maintenance underspend backlog exceeding R30bn. Locomotive shortages, vandalism and concession uncertainty raise export delays, inventory buffers, and logistics costs for bulk commodities and manufacturers.

Middle East conflict energy shock

Strait of Hormuz disruption is lifting oil and US gasoline prices, raising freight, petrochemical feedstock, and operating costs while increasing inflation uncertainty. Companies should stress-test fuel surcharges, inventory buffers, and insurance/routing for shipping and aviation-dependent supply chains.