Nearshoring slows in new capital

Mexico posted a record $34.968 billion in first-half 2026 FDI, but 88.5% was reinvested earnings and new investment fell 13.4%. This suggests established firms remain committed, while fresh entrants hesitate amid infrastructure, energy, security, and trade-policy uncertainty.

Supply Chain De-Risking From China

Taiwan’s export mix is shifting away from China as firms pursue diversification and ‘trusted supply chains.’ News cited falling China export dependence, rising U.S. sales, and tighter scrutiny of China-linked sourcing, forcing companies to redesign sourcing, compliance, and regional production structures.

Negotiated trade truce sought

After an 80-minute Lula-Trump call, Brazil and the US resumed technical talks, with Brasília prioritizing exemptions rather than expecting full rollback. Business groups welcomed renewed dialogue as a path to restore predictability, reduce barriers, and protect bilateral trade and investment flows.

Expanded Energy Infrastructure Investment

Turkey says it needs about $80 billion in electricity-grid investment by 2035 and is also expanding LNG, pipelines, Sakarya gas production, and nuclear capacity. These projects support long-term supply security but create major execution, financing, and contractor opportunities.

Political uncertainty and policy signaling

The tariff crisis is influencing domestic politics, with Quebec’s premier pausing her campaign and federal leaders framing the conflict around sovereignty and resilience. For investors, this raises uncertainty over policy continuity, public spending priorities, and the pace of economic reforms.

Critical Infrastructure Sabotage Risks

A series of suspected sabotage incidents at power substations, grid nodes and transport facilities is increasing operational risk for companies in Germany. Authorities and industry groups warn that disruptions could halt production within hours unless resilience, monitoring and backup systems are strengthened.

USMCA review and tariff uncertainty

Washington’s decision not to extend USMCA beyond 2036 has opened annual reviews and prolonged uncertainty. Mexico still faces 25% tariffs on autos and 50% on steel and aluminum, complicating investment planning, sourcing decisions, and North American production integration.

Cybersecurity Gaps Expose Tax Systems

Recent cyberattacks affected 678,000 people and highlighted weak access controls on France's tax portal, which still lacks full two-factor authentication. Delayed legal transposition of EU security requirements increases operational risk for firms handling employee, customer or supplier tax data.

Retaliation Hits Industrial Inputs

Canada’s counter-tariffs target steel, aluminum, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, and electronics, while the U.S. has also restricted dairy, alcohol, and motorcycles. These measures directly affect input costs, procurement strategies, and downstream manufacturing schedules.

Vietnam as regional trade bridge

Vietnam is positioning itself as a bridge between ASEAN and partners including Russia, Laos and Japan, with focus on supply chains, maritime links, rail corridors and free trade agreements. This supports re-export, market access and regional distribution strategies.

Fuel shortages and economic contraction

Iranian officials say the country has only about two months of gasoline left, with imports and exports down 25%-35% and inflation near 70%-80%. The rial has weakened sharply, household purchasing power is eroding, and domestic instability is increasing, affecting demand and payment risk.

Border security reshapes operations

Thailand and Malaysia are coordinating intelligence sharing, joint patrols, border fencing, and anti-smuggling measures along their shared frontier. The discussions also link security to trade, logistics, and local economic development, signaling higher compliance demands and possible disruptions for cross-border supply chains.

Power tariff reform reshapes competitiveness

Government’s new electricity pricing policy aims to curb tariffs that have risen more than sixfold above inflation since 2007. A planned 10-year price forecast and Eskom transmission unbundling could improve investment visibility, but utility debt and revenue erosion remain material risks.

Transport Reliability Under Pressure

Planned reforms include a zero-alcohol driving limit, a single ticketing system, freight growth targets and expanded rail investment. With road fatalities costing an estimated R266 billion annually, transport inefficiency remains a major drag on trade, distribution and worker mobility.

Hormuz blockade reshapes trade flows

The renewed U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s countermeasures have sharply reduced oil and non-oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Reported crude loadings fell from about 1.98 million bpd in February to 135,000 bpd in August, while over 80% of heavy imports and non-oil exports were disrupted.

Economic infrastructure under attack

Russian attacks increasingly target warehouses, retailers, postal hubs, gas stations, ports and factories. Reported damage includes Rozetka’s roughly EUR 70 million logistics loss, causing delivery delays, empty shelves, layoffs, fuel disruption and higher operating risk for domestic businesses.

IMF-backed reform credibility

Egypt has received $25.3 billion in IMF financing since 2016, including about $1.8 billion in July 2026, supporting reserves and market credibility, but exchange-rate liberalization and subsidy cuts continue to create inflation and demand-side pressure.

Aviation Networks Face Sanctions Shock

Washington’s designation of Iran’s remaining airlines and suspension of aviation authorizations target aircraft, parts, cargo and overflight services. The move can affect regional air links, increase exposure for logistics providers, and complicate aircraft leasing, maintenance, and financing decisions.

Energy Security and LNG Dependence

Germany’s energy security remains a major business risk as it replaces Russian pipeline gas with LNG, with 90% of its LNG now coming from the United States. Low storage levels and winter supply uncertainty could drive price shocks and raise input costs for industry.

Regional Trade Corridors Gain Importance

Turkey is advancing the Iraq Development Road, border connectivity, and broader transit links while Ukraine’s free trade agreement opens new commercial channels. These corridor projects may improve market access, but they also depend on regional security, customs efficiency, and infrastructure delivery.

Tariff Escalation With Canada

The United States imposed 50% tariffs on about $20–29 billion of Canadian goods, and Canada retaliated with 15%–50% duties on $27.6 billion of U.S. exports. The dispute is already reshaping pricing, sourcing, and cross-border supply chains, especially in autos, steel, dairy, electronics, and machinery.

Retail, Consumer Goods Tariff Spillovers

Canada’s counter-tariffs extend beyond heavy industry to dairy, appliances, seafood, clothing, cosmetics and paper, with duties of 15%, 25% and 50% on about 700 products. Importers and retailers face immediate pricing pressure and consumer demand risk.

Alternative Route Bottlenecks

Danube ports, railway crossings, roads, and river routes are absorbing diverted cargo, but they cannot replace maritime capacity. Reports cite lower throughput, congestion, and higher costs of around €41 per ton or $45-50 per ton, squeezing margins across supply chains.

Food Security And Supply Cooperation

Thailand and Singapore are highlighting food-security cooperation, including a rice supply mechanism that allows Thailand to export specified volumes on request. For importers and agribusinesses, the focus on stable bilateral food channels underscores Thailand’s role in regional agricultural supply resilience.

Critical Minerals And Industrial Policy

Lula tied Brazil’s trade posture to petroleum, rare earths and freshwater, arguing these resources should support domestic technology and jobs. The stance suggests a more assertive industrial policy that could influence investment screening, mining partnerships, and the export strategy for strategic inputs.

External sanctions reshape market access

New U.S. and EU sanctions initiatives targeting Russia, shadow fleets, and major buyers of Russian energy create indirect effects for Ukraine-linked trade. The evolving policy environment may influence tariffs, routing choices, financing conditions, and counterpart screening across regional transactions.

Export Zone Rules Challenge Industry

The IMF’s requirement to end domestic sales from EPZs and phase out zones by 2035 threatens firms relying on the 20% local-market buffer. Business groups warn of closures, weaker investor confidence and disruption to export-oriented manufacturing.

Dover Disruption Exposes Border Fragility

The Port of Dover blockade showed how public-order incidents can instantly interrupt a gateway handling about one-third of Great Britain-EU goods trade. This underlines operational vulnerability for logistics, customs timing and just-in-time supply chains reliant on the Channel crossing.

Australia Deepens China Trade Balancing

Australia has removed trade barriers on about A$20 billion of exports while keeping AUKUS, foreign-interference laws and critical-infrastructure controls intact. Businesses tied to China should expect continued market access opportunities, but also persistent political and security-driven scrutiny.

Budget Pressure Tests Investor Confidence

France’s 2027 budget is being shaped around deficit control below 5.1% of GDP, with no tax increases and spending restraint. Markets are watching debt-servicing costs, political reversibility, and the risk that weak growth undermines fiscal credibility.

China Trade Defenses Intensify

Berlin is moving toward tougher protection against Chinese overcapacity, with debate over EU tariffs on hybrid vehicles, faster anti-dumping tools and anti-subsidy measures. The shift could reshape sourcing, market access and competitive conditions across autos, machinery and industrial inputs.

Fast-track new gas discoveries

The Denise West offshore discovery, estimated at 2 TCF of gas and 130 Mbbl of condensate, is being advanced toward a final investment decision within months, with first gas targeted in under two years, supporting future feedstock and export capacity.

Red Sea Energy Route Disruption

Escalating Houthi activity around Bab al-Mandeb and Mokha has threatened Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export corridor, forcing greater reliance on Yanbu and alternative routes. The resulting detours, insurance risk, and higher freight costs are directly affecting crude flows and global trade planning.

Steel Security and China Friction

Britain’s nationalisation of British Steel to protect supply chains has triggered a diplomatic dispute with China over investor protections and compensation. The move signals stronger state intervention in strategic industries and raises risk for Chinese capital, industrial partnerships and steel-linked supply chains.

Russian Sanctions Enforcement Tightens

Britain has doubled maximum sanctions-violation penalties from 50% to 100% and issued a nationwide alert on the A7 evasion network. Businesses face higher enforcement risk, expanded due diligence obligations and greater scrutiny of payments, intermediaries and cross-border financial routes.

Sanctions architecture broadens further

The EU’s latest and proposed sanctions packages widen restrictions on 33 Russian banks, crypto providers, refineries, LNG tanker sales and 41 shadow-fleet vessels. Brussels also signaled an autumn expansion that could increase sanctioned Russian entities by one-third.