Shadow fleet interdictions and safety

France’s boarding of the GRINCH and allied moves to seize or detain shadow‑fleet tankers signal a shift from monitoring to physical enforcement. Aging, falsely flagged ships elevate spill, detention and force‑majeure risk for shippers, insurers, and terminals.

Monetary policy and FX volatility

Banxico signaled further rate cuts are possible if tax and tariff changes do not trigger second-round inflation. With the policy rate around 7% and inflation near 3.8% early 2026, financing costs may ease, but peso volatility can impact input pricing and hedging needs.

Escalating Sanctions Disrupt Trade Flows

Intensified US and EU sanctions, including on shipping, oil, and digital assets, severely restrict Iran’s access to global markets. These measures complicate cross-border transactions, increase compliance risks, and force businesses to navigate opaque networks, raising operational and reputational risks.

Sustainable Development And Regulatory Compliance

Vietnam’s wood and agricultural sectors are adapting to stringent international sustainability and legality standards, especially from the US and EU. Compliance with deforestation-free and traceability requirements is now essential for continued access to major export markets.

Energiepreise, Gasvorräte, Versorgung

Gasspeicher fielen Anfang Februar unter 30%, teures LNG und Transportengpässe erhöhen Preisrisiken. Parallel stützt der Staat Strompreise (rund 30 Mrd. € 2026). Für energieintensive Branchen bleiben Standortkosten, Vertragsstrukturen und Hedging zentral für Investitionen und Produktion.

Escalating U.S. Secondary Tariffs

The United States has imposed a sweeping 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, sharply escalating secondary sanctions. This move threatens to disrupt global supply chains, deter foreign investment, and force international businesses to reassess exposure to both Iran and U.S. markets.

Regulatory Reform and Ease of Doing Business

Recent legal and regulatory reforms, including the repeal of obsolete statutes and streamlined customs and tax processes, are improving India’s business climate. These measures enhance transparency, reduce compliance costs, and support foreign investor confidence in long-term operations.

Improving external buffers and ratings

Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to positive, citing gross FX reserves near $205bn and net reserves (ex-swaps) about $78bn, reducing balance-of-payments risk. Better buffers can stabilize trade finance and counterparty risk, though inflation and politics still weigh on sentiment.

Port and logistics labor fragility

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to labor negotiations and operational constraints at major ports and logistics nodes. Even localized disruptions can ripple into inventory shortages, demurrage costs, and missed delivery windows, pushing firms toward diversification, buffering, and nearshore warehousing.

Regulatory Environment Grows More Complex

The US is implementing significant regulatory changes, including expanded compliance requirements and sector-specific rules. Businesses face increased costs and operational complexity, particularly in finance, technology, and manufacturing, affecting market entry and ongoing operations.

Tourism demand mix and margin squeeze

Hotels forecast ~33m foreign arrivals in 2026 versus a 36.7m target; China demand is expected to soften while long-haul grows. Limited room-rate increases and higher labor/social-security costs pressure margins, impacting hospitality, aviation, retail, and real estate revenues.

Automotive profitability under tariffs

Toyota flagged that U.S. tariffs reduced operating profit by about ¥1.45tn and reported a sharp quarterly profit drop, alongside a CEO transition toward stronger financial discipline. For manufacturers and suppliers, this implies continued cost-down pressure, reallocation of investment, and trade-policy sensitivity.

CBAM and green compliance pressure

EU officials explicitly linked deeper trade integration to climate alignment, warning Turkish exporters about Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism exposure without compatible carbon pricing and reporting. Carbon-cost pass-through could hit steel, cement, aluminum and chemicals, driving urgent decarbonization and MRV investments.

US–China trade war resurgence

Tariffs, export controls, and screening of China-linked supply chains remain structurally entrenched. Even during tactical truces, businesses face sudden policy reversals, higher landed costs, customs enforcement, and intensified due-diligence on origin, routing, and end-use across jurisdictions.

Pemex finances and supply reliability

Pemex reported debt reduced to about $84.5bn and announced multi-year capex to lift crude and gas output, targeting 1.8 mbd oil and 4.5 bcf/d gas. Improved balance sheet helps suppliers, but operational execution and fiscal dependence still affect energy reliability and payments.

EU-UK Relations and Market Access

The UK government is exploring closer alignment with the EU single market to offset Brexit-related losses. Improved EU ties could boost UK GDP and productivity, but ongoing trade tensions and regulatory divergence continue to hamper seamless access for UK firms to the EU market.

Currency strength amid weak growth

The rand has rallied roughly 13% year-on-year despite sub-50 manufacturing PMI readings, reflecting global liquidity and carry dynamics more than domestic fundamentals. For multinationals, volatility risk remains: earnings translation, import costs and hedging needs can shift quickly on risk-off shocks.

CUSMA’s Uncertain Future and Renegotiation

The Canada-US-Mexico Agreement faces an uncertain future, with President Trump calling it ‘irrelevant’ and considering separate bilateral deals. The upcoming review could disrupt established trade flows, regulatory certainty, and investment strategies for firms operating in North America.

Post-Brexit Trade Policy Evolution

The UK's trade policy continues to evolve post-Brexit, with new trade agreements and ongoing negotiations with the EU and other partners. Shifting tariffs, regulatory divergence, and customs changes are impacting international trade flows and business planning.

US-France Trade War Escalation

Tensions between France and the US have escalated, with threats of 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne over political disputes, notably Greenland and Gaza. Such measures threaten billions in exports, disrupt transatlantic supply chains, and increase uncertainty for investors and multinationals.

Record Export Growth Driven by Chips

South Korea’s exports surged 34% year-on-year in January to $65.85 billion, led by booming semiconductor demand for AI servers and memory chips. This export momentum, especially to China and the US, underpins economic resilience but faces risks from protectionist policies and supply chain disruptions.

Bahnnetz-Sanierung stört Logistik

Großbaustellen bei der Bahn (u.a. Köln–Hagen monatelang gesperrt) verlängern Laufzeiten im Personen- und Güterverkehr und erhöhen Ausweichkosten. Für internationale Lieferketten steigen Pufferbedarf, Lagerhaltung und multimodale Planung; zugleich bleibt die Finanzierung langfristiger Netzmodernisierung unsicher.

US Tariff Threats Disrupt Trade

President Trump’s threats of up to 25% tariffs on German and EU exports have destabilized markets and undermined Germany’s fragile economic recovery. These measures threaten over €250 billion in US-German trade, forcing companies to reassess supply chains, investments, and market strategies.

China-tech decoupling feedback loop

U.S. controls and tariffs are accelerating reciprocal Chinese policies to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and financial exposure. This dynamic increases regulatory fragmentation, raises substitution risk for U.S. technology vendors, and forces global firms to design products, data flows, and financing for bifurcated regimes.

Tariff escalation and legal risk

U.S. tariff policy remains volatile, with high effective tariff rates and active litigation over emergency authorities. Companies face sudden duty changes, pricing pressure, and contract disputes, while investment timing hinges on court outcomes and negotiated exemptions across sectors.

Escalating Taiwan Strait grey-zone risk

China’s sustained air and naval activity and blockade-style drills raise probabilities of disruption without formal conflict. Firms face higher marine insurance, rerouting and inventory buffers, plus heightened contingency planning for ports, aviation, and regional logistics hubs.

Geopolitical Realignment and Supply Chain Security

Saudi Arabia is deepening ties with China, the US, and regional partners, while pursuing new defense and economic alliances. These shifts impact energy flows, supply chain resilience, and market access, requiring international businesses to closely monitor evolving geopolitical risks.

Critical Minerals and Rare Earths Geopolitics

Brazil’s vast reserves of lithium and rare earths are now central to EU and US supply chain strategies, as both seek to reduce dependence on China. New agreements position Brazil as a key supplier for the global energy transition, but value addition and local benefit remain challenges.

Regulatory unpredictability and enforcement

Sector-focused campaigns and uneven local enforcement create compliance uncertainty in areas such as antitrust, national security reviews, and ESG/labor enforcement. International firms should expect faster investigations, reputational exposure, and the need for stronger internal controls and local engagement.

Carbon Market Regulation and Opportunities

Brazil is preparing to launch a regulated carbon credit market by 2030, unlocking significant investment in forest conservation, renewable energy, and agriculture. This regulatory shift will drive demand for carbon credits, impacting polluting industries and boosting international climate finance flows.

Defense Sector Privatization and Global Demand

Plans to privatize state-owned defense companies, including a potential $27 billion IPO for Israel Aerospace Industries, reflect efforts to increase flexibility and international competitiveness. Global demand for Israeli defense technology is rising, especially in Europe, amid heightened security concerns.

Manufacturing and Chemicals Structural Weakness

Despite modest GDP growth, Germany’s manufacturing and chemicals sectors face persistent output declines, plant closures, and job losses. Global competition, high energy costs, and regulatory burdens threaten long-term competitiveness, requiring strategic adaptation for international investors.

US–China tariff escalation risk

Persistent US tariff actions and Section 301 measures, plus partner-country spillovers (e.g., Canada EV quota deal drawing US threats), increase landed costs, compliance complexity, and transshipment scrutiny—raising uncertainty for exporters, importers, and North America–linked supply chains.

Political Stability and Policy Continuity

India’s stable democratic institutions, policy continuity, and macroeconomic management underpin investor confidence. The government’s commitment to infrastructure, digital public goods, and inclusive growth ensures a predictable environment for international business and investment decisions.

Offshore Wind and Infrastructure Investment Boom

Major offshore wind projects and infrastructure upgrades are underway, with Victoria’s 2 GW auction and Western Australia’s 4 GW feasibility licenses leading the way. These initiatives promise to diversify energy supply, create thousands of jobs, and attract billions in investment, but face regulatory and community hurdles.

US-China Decoupling and Supply Chain Realignment

US-China trade relations have deteriorated, with tariffs and technology restrictions prompting companies to diversify supply chains. China’s exports to the US dropped 20% in 2025, but rerouting through third countries maintains indirect flows, complicating decoupling efforts and global sourcing strategies.