Auto trade standards and market access changes

Seoul agreed to abolish the 50,000-unit cap recognizing US FMVSS-equivalent vehicles, and broader auto provisions remain in talks amid tariff threats. Even if volumes are modest, rule changes shift competitive dynamics and compliance planning for OEMs and suppliers.

Foreign investment approvals and regulation drag

Multinational CEOs report slower, costlier approvals and heavier compliance. OECD ranks Australia highly restrictive for foreign investment screening; nearly half of applications exceeded statutory timelines, and fees have risen sharply. Deal certainty, transaction costs and time-to-market are increasingly material planning factors.

Shadow-fleet oil trade disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on a mature “dark fleet” using AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and transshipment hubs (notably Malaysia) to reach China at discounts. Expanded interdictions and tanker seizures increase freight, insurance, and contract-frustration risks for energy-linked supply chains.

Power surplus, price volatility risk

Weak demand and rising renewables increase periods of low/negative prices and force nuclear output modulation; EDF warns higher maintenance needs and added costs (≈€30m/year) if electrification lags. Volatility affects PPAs, hedging strategies, and industrial competitiveness planning.

Tech export controls enforcement surge

Washington is tightening and actively enforcing semiconductor and AI-related export controls, illustrated by a $252m settlement over alleged post-Entity-List tool exports to China’s SMIC. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, licensing delays, and heightened penalties for third‑party diversion.

Immigration Tightening Hits Talent Pipelines

New US visa restrictions affect nationals of 39 countries, and higher barriers for skilled work visas are emerging, including steep sponsorship costs and state‑level limits. Firms should anticipate harder mobility, longer staffing lead times, and higher labor costs for R&D and services delivery.

High-tech FDI and semiconductor scaling

FDI remains strong with US$38.42bn registered in 2025 and US$27.62bn realised (highest 2021–25). Policy emphasis is shifting toward electronics, semiconductors, AI and rare earths, deepening supplier ecosystems but increasing competition for skilled labour and land.

Critical minerals investment competition

US–Pakistan talks and Ex-Im support for Reko Diq ($1.25bn) signal momentum in mining, alongside Saudi/Chinese interest. Opportunity is large but execution hinges on security, provincial-federal clarity and ESG safeguards, affecting upstream supply-chain diversification decisions.

Investment security screening expands

CFIUS scrutiny and emerging outbound-investment controls increase deal uncertainty in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing. Cross-border M&A may require longer timelines, mitigation agreements, or abandonment; investors need earlier national-security due diligence and structural protections.

Carbon market rollout and emissions caps

Vietnam is building a domestic carbon market: Decree 29/2026 sets the trading platform’s framework, with pilots through 2028 and full operation from 2029. Sector caps for 2025–26 (243–268 MtCO2e) start shaping compliance and green investment priorities.

Energy finance, Aramco expansion

Aramco’s $4bn bond issuance signals sustained global capital access to fund upstream, downstream chemicals, and new-energy investments. For traders and industrial users, this supports feedstock reliability and petrochemical capacity, while policy shifts and OPEC+ dynamics keep price volatility elevated.

Tax and GST compliance digitization

Authorities are shifting to data-driven, risk-based enforcement: expanded e-invoicing and automated “nudge” campaigns, plus proposed e-way bill reforms toward trusted-dealer, tech-enabled logistics. This raises auditability and system-risk exposure, especially for MSMEs and cross-border traders.

Cyber and physical security exposure

Critical infrastructure targeting increases cyber and sabotage risks for telecoms, utilities, ports and industrial firms. Businesses should expect greater downtime probability, stricter security protocols, and higher compliance costs for data, critical equipment, and dual-use supply chains.

Crypto and fintech rulebook tightening

The FCA is advancing a full cryptoasset authorization regime, consulting on Consumer Duty, safeguarding, SMCR accountability and reporting, with an application gateway expected in late 2026 and rules effective 2027. Market access and product design will increasingly hinge on governance readiness.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is escalating Iran pressure using tariff-based secondary measures—authorizing ~25% duties on imports from countries trading with Iran. This blurs trade and sanctions compliance, raises retaliation/WTO dispute risk, and forces multinationals to audit supply chains for Iran exposure.

Security threats to supply chains

Cargo theft, extortion and increasingly sophisticated freight fraud raise insurance costs and force changes to routing, warehousing and carrier selection. High-value lanes near industrial corridors and border crossings are most exposed, making security standards, tracking and vetted 3PLs essential.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The 2026 USMCA/CUSMA joint review is approaching amid fresh U.S. tariff threats (up to 100% on Canadian goods) and active duties on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Uncertainty raises cross-border pricing, rules-of-origin, and investment risk for integrated supply chains.

Defense spending surge and procurement

Defense outlays rise sharply (2026 budget signals +€6.5bn; ~57.2bn total), with broader rearmament discussions. This expands opportunities in aerospace, cyber, and dual-use tech, while tightening export controls, security clearances, and supply-chain requirements.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported fuels makes LNG procurement, terminal resilience, and grid stability strategic business variables. Cross-strait disruptions could quickly constrain power supply for fabs and data centers; policy debate over new nuclear options signals potential regulatory and investment shifts.

Tightening China tech export controls

Export-control enforcement is intensifying, highlighted by a $252 million U.S. settlement over unlicensed shipments to SMIC after Entity List designation. Expect tighter licensing, more routing scrutiny via third countries, higher compliance costs, and greater China supply-chain fragmentation.

Weaponized finance and sanctions risk

US investigations into sanctioned actors using crypto and stablecoins highlight expanding enforcement across digital rails. For cross-border businesses, this raises screening obligations, counterparty risk, and potential payment disruptions, especially in high-risk corridors connected to Iran or Russia.

Climate and cotton supply vulnerability

Cotton output recovery to about 5m bales still leaves Pakistan importing $2–3bn annually, pressuring FX and textile margins. Heat, erratic rainfall and pests threaten yields. Apparel supply chains face higher input volatility and potential delivery risks in peak seasons.

Oil revenues squeeze and discounts

Russia’s oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to about 393 billion rubles in January, with Urals trading at steep discounts and buyers demanding wider risk premia. Falling proceeds drive tax hikes and borrowing, raising payment-risk, contract renegotiations, and counterparty resilience concerns for exporters and suppliers.

Aviation and airspace disruption

Airlines have suspended or limited services to Tel Aviv and avoided Israeli and nearby airspace during spikes in regional tension. This constrains executive travel and air cargo capacity, pushes shipments to sea/third-country hubs, and complicates time-sensitive logistics.

Pressão socioambiental na Amazônia

Protestos indígenas bloquearam terminal da Cargill em Santarém contra concessões e dragagem na bacia do Tapajós, alegando falta de consulta. O tema eleva risco de paralisações, due diligence socioambiental e exigências de rastreabilidade em cadeias agrícolas.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.

Regional war and security risk

Gaza conflict and spillovers (Lebanon, Iran proxies) keep Israel’s risk premium elevated, raising insurance, freight, and business-continuity costs. Mobilization and security alerts disrupt staffing and site access, while renewed escalation could rapidly impair ports, aviation, and cross-border trade.

LNG export expansion and permitting

The administration is accelerating LNG export approvals and permitting, supporting long-term contracts with Europe and Asia and stimulating upstream investment. Cheaper, abundant U.S. gas can lower energy-input costs for U.S. manufacturing while tightening global gas markets and shipping capacity.

Infrastructure theft and vandalism

Cable theft, derailments and vandalism continue to disrupt rail and municipal services, increasing insurance, security and downtime. Rail upgrades are estimated at ~R14bn annually (some estimates ~R200bn overall). Persistent crime risk could deter private participation and capex.

İşgücü gerilimleri ve operasyon sürekliliği

Büyük perakende/lojistik ağlarında ücret anlaşmazlıkları grev ve işten çıkarmalara yol açabiliyor; dağıtım merkezleri ve depolarda aksama riski yükseliyor. Çok lokasyonlu işletmeler için sendikal dinamikler, taşeron kullanımı, güvenlik müdahaleleri ve itibar yönetimi tedarik sürekliliğini etkiler.

Halal certification mandate October 2026

Indonesia will enforce a broad “mandatory halal” regime from October 2026, and authorities are accelerating certification for SMEs and market traders. Importers and FMCG, pharma, and cosmetics firms must adjust labeling, ingredient traceability, audits, and supply-chain documentation to avoid disruption.

Sanctions expansion and enforcement intensity

U.S. sanctions policy is expanding and increasingly operational, raising shipping, insurance, and counterparty risks. New Iran measures targeted 15 entities and 14 vessels tied to the “shadow fleet” soon after nuclear talks, indicating parallel diplomacy and pressure. Firms need stronger screening and maritime due diligence.

Trade rerouting to China

Russia’s export dependence is concentrating on China as India’s intake becomes uncertain and discounts widen (ESPO ~US$9/bbl, Urals ~US$12/bbl vs Brent). This increases buyer power, pricing volatility and settlement complexity, while complicating long-term offtake and investment planning.

Industriewandel Auto- und EV-Markt

Die Re-Industrialisierung des Autosektors wird durch Politik und Nachfrage geprägt: Neue E-Auto-Förderung 2026–2029 umfasst 3 Mrd. € und Zuschüsse von 1.500–6.000 € (einkommensabhängig). Das verschiebt Absatzplanung, Batterielieferketten, Handelsstrategien und Wettbewerb, inkl. chinesischer Anbieter.

Tech export controls tighten supply

Expanded controls on AI chips, advanced semiconductors, and tooling constrain sales into China and other sensitive markets, while raising compliance burdens worldwide. Firms must redesign products, segment customer access, and harden end‑use diligence to avoid penalties and sudden shipment stoppages.

Property slump and financial spillovers

China’s housing correction continues to depress demand and strain credit. January new-home prices fell 3.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. Persistent developer debt and bank exposures weigh on consumption, payments risk, and counterparty reliability across B2B sectors.