Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

PIF giga-project reprioritisation cycle

Vision 2030 mega-projects exceed US$1tn planned value, with ~US$115bn contracts awarded since 2019, but sponsors are recalibrating scope and timelines. This shifts procurement pipelines, payment cycles, and counterparty risk for EPC, materials, and services firms.

Massive Reconstruction and Investment Plans

Western allies, led by the EU and US, are finalizing a 10-year, $800 billion recovery plan for Ukraine, focusing on infrastructure, energy, and technology. The plan’s success depends on achieving peace and security guarantees, with private sector involvement critical for long-term economic recovery.

Transatlantic Trade Tensions Escalate

The UK faces heightened uncertainty as the US threatens tariffs on British goods, linked to broader disputes over Greenland and European sovereignty. These measures risk delaying the UK-US trade deal, disrupting supply chains, and increasing costs for export-driven sectors.

Allied Coordination on Resource Security

Australia is collaborating with the US, UK, EU, and regional partners to establish price floors and secure supply chains for critical minerals. This coordinated approach aims to counter China’s market dominance, catalyze investment, and ensure stable access for clean energy and defense industries.

Critical Minerals and Resource Security

Canada’s vast reserves of critical minerals and natural resources have become a focal point in US-Canada tensions. Control over these assets is now central to national security and industrial policy, affecting global supply chains for energy, technology, and manufacturing sectors.

Expanded secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is blending sanctions and trade tools, including a proposed blanket 25% tariff on imports from any country trading with Iran. This “long-arm” approach raises compliance costs, forces enhanced supply-chain due diligence, and increases retaliation and WTO-dispute risk for multinationals.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Washington and Mexico have begun talks on USMCA reforms ahead of the July 1 joint review, with stricter rules of origin, anti-dumping measures and critical-minerals cooperation. Uncertainty raises pricing, compliance and investment risk for export manufacturers, especially autos and electronics.

Shifting Trade Partnerships and Diversification

US unpredictability has prompted partners like India, the EU, and others to seek alternative trade relationships, including new deals with China. This diversification reduces US leverage, alters global trade flows, and impacts long-term market positioning for multinationals.

Geopolitical Tensions and Russia Sanctions

Finland is at the forefront of EU efforts to enforce and expand sanctions against Russia, targeting oil exports and maritime services. These measures, including actions against Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’, impact energy supply chains, raise compliance costs, and heighten regional security risks for international businesses.

China’s Strategic Export Controls

China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and technology, targeting entire supply chains. These measures, often ambiguous and reactive, create uncertainty for global manufacturers and heighten the risk of supply disruptions in sectors such as electronics, EVs, and renewable energy.

Escalating Australia-China Trade Tensions

Recent moves by Australia to impose tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel, and disputes over the Port of Darwin, have reignited trade tensions. These developments risk retaliatory Chinese actions, impacting Australia’s exports, investment flows, and overall business climate.

Private Sector Role in Recovery and Innovation

Major global firms and financial institutions, including BlackRock, are actively shaping Ukraine’s recovery strategy. The focus is on mobilizing private capital, modernizing infrastructure, and fostering innovation, especially in energy and technology, despite ongoing operational risks from conflict.

Incertidumbre por revisión del T-MEC

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC hacia el 1 de julio y señales de posible salida o “modo zombi” elevan el riesgo regulatorio. Se discuten reglas de origen, antidumping y minerales críticos, afectando decisiones de inversión, pricing y contratos de largo plazo.

Energy policy boosts LNG exports

A shift toward faster permitting and “regular order” approvals for LNG terminals and non-FTA exports signals higher medium-term US gas supply to Europe and Asia. This supports long-term contracting but can raise domestic price volatility and regulatory swings for energy-intensive industries.

AI memory-chip supercycle expansion

SK hynix’s record profits and 61% HBM share are driving aggressive capacity and U.S. expansion, including a planned $10bn AI solutions entity plus new packaging and fabs. AI-driven tight memory supply raises input costs but boosts Korea’s tech-led exports.

CFIUS and data-driven deal risk

Foreign acquisitions involving sensitive data and systemic assets face heightened CFIUS exposure, as seen in potential scrutiny of ETS/TOEFL due to personal data concentration and institutional role. Cross-border investors should plan for mitigation, deal delays, and valuation haircuts.

Fiscal instability and shutdown risk

A recent partial US government shutdown underscores recurring budget brinkmanship. Delays to agencies and data releases can disrupt procurement, licensing, and regulatory timelines, affecting contractors, trade facilitation, and planning for firms reliant on federal approvals or spending.

Port infrastructure under sustained strikes

A concentrated wave of Russian attacks on ports and ships—Dec 2–Jan 12 made up ~10% of all such strikes since 2022—targets Ukraine’s export backbone. Damage and interruptions raise demurrage and storage costs, deter carriers, and complicate export contracting for agriculture and metals.

Diversification of Trade Partnerships

With strained US and EU relations, South Africa is strengthening ties with the UAE, China, and other Asian markets. This diversification supports investment in renewable energy, AI, and manufacturing, but also exposes the country to new geopolitical and compliance risks.

Rates at peak, easing uncertain

With Selic around 15% and the central bank signalling data-dependence ahead of possible March cuts, corporate funding, FX and demand conditions remain volatile. A smoother disinflation path could unlock refinancing and capex, but wage-led services inflation is a key risk.

AI and Technology Regulation Leadership

Canada is advancing AI and digital regulation to build trust, attract investment, and protect privacy. With over 3,000 AI firms and 800,000 digital sector jobs, legislative clarity and sovereign infrastructure are central to economic resilience and international tech partnerships.

Syria Policy and Regional Security Risks

Turkey’s evolving Syria strategy, focused on eliminating YPG/PKK influence and supporting Syrian state control, aims to stabilize its southern border. While this may improve regional security and trade, ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns pose risks for cross-border operations and investor confidence.

Tariff volatility and legal risk

Rapidly changing tariffs—autos, aircraft, semiconductors and broad “reciprocal” measures—are being tested in courts, including Supreme Court scrutiny of emergency-authority tariffs. This creates pricing uncertainty, contract disputes, and prompts inventory front‑loading and supply-chain reconfiguration.

Resilient Export Growth Amid Global Shifts

Despite global headwinds, Turkey’s exports reached $296.4 billion in 2025, with robust performance in high-tech, defense, and diversified markets. However, cost pressures and shifting EU trade rules create sectoral winners and losers, requiring adaptive strategies.

Monetary tightening and demand pressures

The RBA lifted the cash rate 25bp to 3.85% as inflation re-accelerated (headline ~3.8% y/y; core ~3.3–3.4%) and labour markets stayed tight (~4.1% unemployment). Higher funding costs and a stronger AUD affect capex timing, valuations, and import/export competitiveness.

Carbon Market Regulation and Opportunities

Brazil is preparing to launch a regulated carbon credit market by 2030, unlocking significant investment in forest conservation, renewable energy, and agriculture. This regulatory shift will drive demand for carbon credits, impacting polluting industries and boosting international climate finance flows.

Energy mix permitting and local opposition

While no renewables moratorium is planned, the PPE points to slower onshore wind/solar and prioritizes repowering to reduce local conflicts. Permitting risk and community opposition can delay projects, affecting PPAs, factory decarbonization plans, and ESG delivery timelines.

Steel and aluminum tariff escalation

Higher US aluminum and steel tariffs are driving record physical premiums and import dislocations, lifting costs for autos, aerospace, construction, and packaging. Firms face increased input inflation, renegotiation of supply contracts, and pressure to qualify domestic or alternative suppliers.

Regulatory and Policy Shifts for Business

Japan is implementing regulatory reforms to attract foreign investment and enhance business resilience. Policy changes in economic security, industrial strategy, and trade are designed to support supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and long-term competitiveness for international firms.

Critical Minerals Strategy Targets Europe

Russia invests $9 billion to expand rare earth mineral production, aiming to control 10% of global supply by 2030. This strategy leverages Europe’s dependence on Chinese minerals, offering Russia new geopolitical influence but facing technological and sanctions barriers for foreign investors.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

Expanded sanctions and tougher enforcement related to Russia, Iran, and technology diversion raise compliance burdens and counterparty risk. Companies face greater exposure to secondary sanctions, stricter due diligence on intermediaries, and potential payment/insurance disruptions, especially in energy, shipping, and dual-use goods.

Capital markets and divestment pressure

Public debate and legal threats around investing in Israeli bonds illustrate rising ESG, fiduciary and litigation risks for investors. Corporates may face shareholder resolutions, banking de-risking or higher funding costs, requiring transparent use-of-proceeds, enhanced disclosures and stakeholder engagement.

USMCA review and regional risk

The coming USMCA review is a material downside risk for North American supply chains, with potential counter-tariffs and compliance changes. Canada’s central bank flags U.S.-driven policy volatility; businesses may defer capex, adjust sourcing, and build contingency inventory across the region.

Data sovereignty and EU compliance

Finland’s role as a ‘safe harbor’ for sensitive European workloads, including large cloud investments, strengthens trust for enterprise XR data and simulation IP. International firms still need robust GDPR, security auditing, and third-country vendor risk management in procurement and hosting decisions.

China Exposure and Supply Chain Risks

German industry’s deep integration with China, especially in automotive and high-tech sectors, creates strategic vulnerabilities. Recent government commissions highlight growing awareness, but slow policy action leaves supply chains and critical infrastructure exposed to geopolitical shocks and Chinese competition.