Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 31, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation is currently marked by President Trump's controversial policies, which have impacted various countries and regions. In Myanmar, the UN Chief has urged a return to civilian rule as the country faces a worsening crisis, with millions in need of humanitarian aid and rising food insecurity. Afghanistan is also facing challenges due to President Trump's suspension of foreign aid, leading to anxiety over food supplies and disruptions for charities. Greece's popular tourist island of Santorini is experiencing increased volcanic activity, which could impact tourism and local communities. Additionally, Denmark and the EU are rallying against Trump's ambitions for Greenland, emphasising territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Trump's Tariff Showdown with Colombia
President Trump's tariff showdown with Colombia has sent ripples through Latin America, signalling turbulent times ahead. The dispute, sparked by Colombian President Gustavo Petro's refusal to accept deportees, led to Trump imposing a 25% tariff on Colombian exports, with threats of escalation. This standoff sends a clear message to Latin America that resistance to U.S. immigration policies will be met with swift economic consequences. Left-leaning governments, especially those misaligned with Washington's priorities, should expect heightened scrutiny and pressure. Smaller economies reliant on U.S. trade may face significant risks, as Trump's willingness to weaponize immigration and tariffs could disrupt regional economic balance and erode trust in U.S.-Latin American relations.
China and Russia may benefit from this situation, as some countries may strengthen ties with these U.S. competitors to counterbalance U.S. influence. Colombia's concession avoided a trade war, but other Latin American countries may be tempted to defy Trump, potentially compromising their sovereignty and economic stability.
Trump's Impact on Canada and the U.S.-Canada Relationship
President Trump's policies are also driving a wedge between Canada and the United States, with discussions about Canada potentially joining the EU. Canada is seeking ways to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary suggesting swift border action. This strained relationship could have significant implications for trade and security cooperation between the two countries.
Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar
The UN Chief has called for a return to civilian rule in Myanmar as the country faces a worsening humanitarian and human rights crisis, with nearly 20 million people expected to need aid. Hunger has reached alarming levels, with 15 million people projected to face acute food insecurity due to soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions. Conflict and displacement have further exacerbated the situation, with millions fleeing across borders and communities on the brink of collapse.
The UN has expressed concerns over the military's plan to hold elections, warning that intensifying conflict and human rights violations do not permit free and peaceful polls. The UN has called for stronger sanctions, restrictions on the junta's access to weapons, and support for international justice mechanisms to address the root causes of the crisis.
Trump's Ambitions for Greenland and EU Response
President Trump's ambitions for Greenland have ignited tensions between the U.S. and European nations, particularly Denmark, over the strategically important territory. Trump's threats of military action have prompted a united response from Denmark and the EU, highlighting the geopolitical significance of Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has reiterated Denmark's firm stance, stating that "Greenland is Greenland and the Greenlandic people are people."
The EU has expressed solidarity with Denmark, signalling potential collective military readiness and a lack of tolerance for unilateral U.S. actions. Denmark has announced plans to increase its military capabilities and strengthen its position within the North Atlantic, bolstering surveillance and sovereignty over the Arctic region. This crisis also underscores the EU's commitment to safeguarding its member states and territorial integrity.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
Given the evolving global situation, businesses and investors should closely monitor developments and assess the potential impact on their operations in the affected regions. For those with interests in Latin America, closely monitoring the evolving relationship between the U.S. and Colombia and its potential impact on trade and investment is crucial. Engaging in scenario planning and developing contingency strategies can help businesses mitigate risks and adapt to changing circumstances.
In the context of Trump's policies, businesses should consider the potential implications for their supply chains, market access, and overall business environment. Diversifying markets and supply chains may be prudent to reduce exposure to potential disruptions.
As the situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate, businesses with operations or supply chains in the region should prioritise the safety of their employees and consider contingency plans to ensure business continuity.<co: 0,1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,13,14>ensure business continuity.</
Further Reading:
'Uncertainty never ends' as deal to free Cuba prisoners unravels under Trump - Citizentribune
Myanmar: UN chief urges return to civilian rule as crisis worsens - UN News
New FM Laura Sarabia must reset Colombia’s image with Washington - The City Paper Bogotá
Secretary of State says Trump's plans for Greenland 'not a joke' - The Center Square
Trump's Greenland Ambitions Stir Unprecedented EU Defenses - Evrim Ağacı
Trump’s Nine-Hour Economic War on Colombia Rattles Markets - Yahoo Finance
Trump’s tariffs loom and even his supporters in Texas are nervous - The Texas Tribune
Themes around the World:
Massive tariff refund backlog
Customs estimates ~$166bn of IEEPA duties across 53m entries from 330k importers must be refunded with interest, but systems may take ~45 days to enable processing. Timing of reimbursements affects working capital, pricing resets, and litigation exposure in trade programs.
Mining push for critical minerals
Vision 2030 is scaling mining as a third pillar, citing $2.5tn mineral wealth and targeting SR240bn GDP contribution by 2030. Reforms include a mining investment law cutting taxes to 20% from 45% and digital licensing, creating openings in exploration, processing, and related industrial services.
Port, rail, and inland logistics risk
U.S. import volumes are pressured by tariff uncertainty while inland risks rise from cargo theft, weather volatility, and potential CDL/driver eligibility changes. This can tighten trucking capacity, elevate distribution costs, and complicate just‑in‑time inventory strategies for importers and manufacturers.
Iran shock: energy and logistics
Strait of Hormuz disruption risks higher oil, LNG and shipping costs for an energy-import-dependent economy. Korea sources about 70.7% of crude and 20.4% of LNG from the Middle East; rerouting can add 3–5 days and raise freight 50–80%.
Hormuz and regional maritime security
Heightened U.S.-Iran friction and Iran’s history of vessel seizures increase the probability of incidents in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption would affect energy prices, war-risk premiums, shipping schedules, and regional supply chains for chemicals and consumer goods.
Biosecurity and market access barriers
Australia’s stringent biosecurity settings continue to shape agrifood trade, with lengthy risk assessments and strict import protocols. Exporters and importers face compliance-heavy pathways, potential delays, and higher inspection and certification costs, influencing sourcing strategies and inventory buffers.
Hormuz shock hits energy costs
Strait of Hormuz disruption and Qatar LNG outages are pushing oil above US$110–120 and Asian LNG prices sharply higher, forcing subsidies and conservation. Expect higher logistics and manufacturing costs, power-price volatility, and tighter hedging for importers and exporters.
Maritime risk and rerouting costs
Rising security risk in key corridors is prompting carrier reroutes around southern Africa, longer transit times, and higher war-risk premiums. China-linked trade feels knock-on effects via schedule unreliability, working-capital strain, and increased freight and insurance costs.
EU transport integration accelerates
Ukraine is deepening integration with EU logistics through measures like extending “transport visa-free” to 2027, advancing European-gauge rail projects, and rolling out e-freight documentation (e‑TTN). These steps can reduce border friction, but capacity constraints and wartime disruptions persist.
Corporate governance reform accelerates
Regulators and activists are pushing Japanese firms to unwind cross-shareholdings and improve capital efficiency. High-profile moves by Toyota and Nintendo signal more buybacks, asset sales, and potential M&A. Foreign investors may see improved liquidity but rising takeover dynamics.
Mining permitting and data modernization
Canada is pursuing “One Project, One Review” and a two-year approval ambition, plus a Mine Permit Navigator and funding to digitize drill-core data (up to C$40M). This may speed investment decisions, yet litigation risk and Indigenous consultation standards remain key execution variables.
US-bound investment reshapes supply chains
Korea’s new legal framework to execute a $350bn U.S. investment pledge—$150bn earmarked for shipbuilding—will redirect capital, procurement, and production footprints. Firms should expect faster localization, US content expectations, and tighter governance over commercially “rational” projects.
Trade reorientation toward United States
US imports from Taiwan hit $24.7B in Dec 2025 versus China $21.1B, while Taiwan’s US trade deficit reached about $147B. AI hardware demand is driving this shift, benefiting exporters but heightening exposure to US policy, audits, and localization demands.
Power-grid expansion and LNG buildout
Rapid electricity demand is driving major grid and generation projects: GE Vernova plans a US$200m HVDC transformer plant in Hai Phong by 2028 and new LNG capacity (e.g., 1,600MW Hai Phong LNG targeting 2030). Grid readiness and fuel security will shape industrial reliability.
Energy infrastructure and export chokepoints
Iran’s exports remain concentrated at Kharg Island, while the Jask terminal offers limited bypass capacity but slower loading. Strikes, sabotage, or operational constraints can quickly reduce throughput, amplifying volatility in regional petrochemicals, shipping availability, and upstream service demand.
Energy grid under sustained attack
Russia’s winter‑spring missile and drone campaign is repeatedly hitting generation, substations, heating and water systems, triggering rolling outages and emergency cuts. This raises operational downtime, damages assets, lifts insurance and security costs, and disrupts industrial output and services nationwide.
Investment screening and data sovereignty
Canada is tightening national-security scrutiny of foreign investment, especially in sensitive tech and data. The TikTok Canada decision proceeded only with legally binding undertakings on data protection, oversight and local presence, signaling higher compliance burdens and deal-closure timelines for investors.
Japan–US geoeconomic package
Japan plans about $36bn in first-wave investments in US oil, gas and critical-minerals projects under a broader $550bn commitment, tied to tariff adjustments. The deal redirects capital allocation, creates US-based supply options, and alters competitiveness for Japan exporters.
Suez Canal rerouting risks
Regional conflict has cut Suez Canal revenues by about $10bn since 2020; experts cite ~50% traffic decline during the Iran war and carrier suspensions. Higher war‑risk insurance and diversions via Cape routes raise lead times, freight costs and contract uncertainty.
Renforcement sanctions et “shadow fleet”
La France soutient l’application plus stricte des sanctions contre la flotte fantôme russe, avec interceptions et appui à saisies. Pour transport maritime, énergie et finance, cela accroît les exigences de conformité, le risque d’assurance et les détours de routes.
Énergie nucléaire et dépendances d’approvisionnement
Relance du programme EPR et prolongation des réacteurs impliquent une montée en charge industrielle et une pénurie de compétences (100.000 recrutements d’ici 2035). Les controverses sur l’uranium russe (112 t enrichi en 2025) créent risques de conformité et de chaîne d’approvisionnement.
Korea-China supply chain recalibration
Seoul and Beijing resumed industry-minister talks focused on stabilizing battery and semiconductor supply chains, creating hotlines for logistics disruptions and exploring fast-track access to items like rare earths and permanent magnets. Firms must manage export-control uncertainty and China-operations continuity.
Air-defence supply constraints risk
Ukraine’s ability to protect infrastructure depends on interceptor availability, notably Patriot PAC‑3. Rising global demand—especially amid Middle East escalation—may delay deliveries and force harder protection trade-offs. This elevates operational risk for energy‑intensive sites and increases the value of resilience investments.
Regional war and air-raid restrictions
Escalation with Iran and ongoing Gaza spillovers trigger Home Front Command “red/orange” restrictions, school closures and reserve mobilization. Israel’s Finance Ministry estimates losses around NIS 9.4bn (US$2.93bn) weekly under “red,” disrupting operations, staffing, and revenue continuity.
Cross-strait maritime disruption risk
China’s expanding “gray-zone” activity—including large fishing flotillas and intensified drills—raises the probability of localized incidents and higher war-risk premiums. Businesses should expect routing changes, longer lead times, and elevated insurance and freight costs for Taiwan-linked shipments and transshipments.
Pemex output and crude-export decline
Pemex crude exports fell to ~294,000 bpd in Jan 2026 (lowest since 1990; -44% y/y) amid lower production (~1.65 mbpd) and mandates to refine domestically. This shifts refinery feedstock, fuels trade, and supplier opportunities, but heightens fiscal and execution risk.
Sanctions, shadow fleet compliance
Iran sustains oil sales via a 400–430-vessel “shadow fleet” using AIS spoofing, false flags and ship-to-ship transfers. OFAC and partners are tightening designations vessel-by-vessel, raising secondary-sanctions exposure, counterparty risk, and due-diligence burdens for shippers, traders, and banks.
Reconstruction governance and tender scrutiny
Anti-corruption measures around reconstruction funding are intensifying, with regional cooperation and new public-investment monitoring tools, while some strategic-minerals tenders draw transparency disputes. For contractors and investors, procurement integrity, beneficial ownership checks, and dispute risk are central.
India–China trade imbalance, controls
India’s trade deficit with China remains large (around $99B in FY2024-25), while security-driven restrictions persist (apps, sensitive investments). Firms should expect continued scrutiny of China-linked ownership, sourcing, and tech partnerships, accelerating “China+1” diversification and localization.
Labor law expansion raises disruption
The “Yellow Envelope” amendments broaden employer responsibility and subcontractor bargaining rights, triggering large-scale negotiation demands across industries. Businesses face higher risk of overlapping bargaining units, slower restructuring and automation decisions, and increased strike incidence—especially in manufacturing and logistics.
Middle East conflict shipping spillovers
Escalation involving Iran has raised war-risk insurance, driven rerouting, and threatened chokepoints like Hormuz, amplifying freight rates and lead times. Even firms not sourcing from the region face higher global transport and energy costs, plus increased continuity planning needs.
Risco fiscal e execução orçamentária
Contas federais iniciaram 2026 com superávit primário de R$86,9 bi, mas despesas crescem mais que receitas e o arcabouço permite exclusões que podem mascarar déficit (~R$23,3 bi). Orçamento de R$6,54 tri amplia emendas (R$61 bi), elevando incerteza regulatória e de projetos.
Post-Brexit border checks gaps
MPs warn post‑Brexit sanitary checks are being bypassed: “drive‑bys” of flagged meat/dairy consignments rose to 18% in Nov 2025 from 8% in Aug. Weak enforcement raises disease and fraud risks, potentially triggering tougher inspections, delays and higher logistics costs.
Domestic gas pricing and allocation
Industri mendorong batas harga LNG domestik ≤US$9/MMBtu dan pembatasan substitusi regasifikasi (≤15% alokasi PJBG) agar daya saing manufaktur terjaga. Ketidakpastian harga/volume gas memengaruhi keputusan investasi pabrik, kontrak energi, serta risiko biaya untuk operasi intensif energi.
Infrastructure funding and PPP push
Government is pivoting to crowd in private capital via guarantees and new PPP rules. A World Bank-supported credit-guarantee vehicle ($350m; aims to mobilise ~$10bn) targets transmission lines (14,000km; R440bn). National infrastructure spend is R1.07trn over three years, easing bottlenecks but execution risk remains.
Geopolitical shipping disruption and rerouting
Middle East conflict is suspending Persian Gulf transits, raising war-risk premiums 400–500% and adding US$2,000–4,000 per container; detours add 10–15 days. Thai exports to the region stall, container imbalances worsen, and supply-chain planning must adapt.