Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 31, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation is currently marked by President Trump's controversial policies, which have impacted various countries and regions. In Myanmar, the UN Chief has urged a return to civilian rule as the country faces a worsening crisis, with millions in need of humanitarian aid and rising food insecurity. Afghanistan is also facing challenges due to President Trump's suspension of foreign aid, leading to anxiety over food supplies and disruptions for charities. Greece's popular tourist island of Santorini is experiencing increased volcanic activity, which could impact tourism and local communities. Additionally, Denmark and the EU are rallying against Trump's ambitions for Greenland, emphasising territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Trump's Tariff Showdown with Colombia
President Trump's tariff showdown with Colombia has sent ripples through Latin America, signalling turbulent times ahead. The dispute, sparked by Colombian President Gustavo Petro's refusal to accept deportees, led to Trump imposing a 25% tariff on Colombian exports, with threats of escalation. This standoff sends a clear message to Latin America that resistance to U.S. immigration policies will be met with swift economic consequences. Left-leaning governments, especially those misaligned with Washington's priorities, should expect heightened scrutiny and pressure. Smaller economies reliant on U.S. trade may face significant risks, as Trump's willingness to weaponize immigration and tariffs could disrupt regional economic balance and erode trust in U.S.-Latin American relations.
China and Russia may benefit from this situation, as some countries may strengthen ties with these U.S. competitors to counterbalance U.S. influence. Colombia's concession avoided a trade war, but other Latin American countries may be tempted to defy Trump, potentially compromising their sovereignty and economic stability.
Trump's Impact on Canada and the U.S.-Canada Relationship
President Trump's policies are also driving a wedge between Canada and the United States, with discussions about Canada potentially joining the EU. Canada is seeking ways to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary suggesting swift border action. This strained relationship could have significant implications for trade and security cooperation between the two countries.
Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar
The UN Chief has called for a return to civilian rule in Myanmar as the country faces a worsening humanitarian and human rights crisis, with nearly 20 million people expected to need aid. Hunger has reached alarming levels, with 15 million people projected to face acute food insecurity due to soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions. Conflict and displacement have further exacerbated the situation, with millions fleeing across borders and communities on the brink of collapse.
The UN has expressed concerns over the military's plan to hold elections, warning that intensifying conflict and human rights violations do not permit free and peaceful polls. The UN has called for stronger sanctions, restrictions on the junta's access to weapons, and support for international justice mechanisms to address the root causes of the crisis.
Trump's Ambitions for Greenland and EU Response
President Trump's ambitions for Greenland have ignited tensions between the U.S. and European nations, particularly Denmark, over the strategically important territory. Trump's threats of military action have prompted a united response from Denmark and the EU, highlighting the geopolitical significance of Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has reiterated Denmark's firm stance, stating that "Greenland is Greenland and the Greenlandic people are people."
The EU has expressed solidarity with Denmark, signalling potential collective military readiness and a lack of tolerance for unilateral U.S. actions. Denmark has announced plans to increase its military capabilities and strengthen its position within the North Atlantic, bolstering surveillance and sovereignty over the Arctic region. This crisis also underscores the EU's commitment to safeguarding its member states and territorial integrity.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
Given the evolving global situation, businesses and investors should closely monitor developments and assess the potential impact on their operations in the affected regions. For those with interests in Latin America, closely monitoring the evolving relationship between the U.S. and Colombia and its potential impact on trade and investment is crucial. Engaging in scenario planning and developing contingency strategies can help businesses mitigate risks and adapt to changing circumstances.
In the context of Trump's policies, businesses should consider the potential implications for their supply chains, market access, and overall business environment. Diversifying markets and supply chains may be prudent to reduce exposure to potential disruptions.
As the situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate, businesses with operations or supply chains in the region should prioritise the safety of their employees and consider contingency plans to ensure business continuity.<co: 0,1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,13,14>ensure business continuity.</
Further Reading:
'Uncertainty never ends' as deal to free Cuba prisoners unravels under Trump - Citizentribune
Myanmar: UN chief urges return to civilian rule as crisis worsens - UN News
New FM Laura Sarabia must reset Colombia’s image with Washington - The City Paper Bogotá
Secretary of State says Trump's plans for Greenland 'not a joke' - The Center Square
Trump's Greenland Ambitions Stir Unprecedented EU Defenses - Evrim Ağacı
Trump’s Nine-Hour Economic War on Colombia Rattles Markets - Yahoo Finance
Trump’s tariffs loom and even his supporters in Texas are nervous - The Texas Tribune
Themes around the World:
Platform takedowns for illegal promotions
FCA’s High Court action against HTX seeks UK blocking via Apple/Google app stores and social platforms, signalling tougher cross-border enforcement of financial promotions and raising distribution and marketing risk for offshore investing and crypto apps.
Infrastructure capex boosts logistics
Economic Survey signals sustained infrastructure push via PM GatiShakti and high public capex. Rail electrification reached 99.1% by Oct 2025; inland water cargo rose to 146 MMT in FY25; ports improve global rankings—lowering transit times and costs.
Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy
South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.
Talent constraints and mobility reforms
Persistent shortages in high-skill engineering and digital roles are pushing Taiwan to expand pathways for foreign professionals and longer-term residence. For multinationals, competition for talent will elevate wage pressure, retention costs, and the strategic value of training, automation, and global staffing models.
Fiscal consolidation and tax changes
War-related spending lifted debt and deficit pressures, prompting IMF calls for faster consolidation and potential VAT/income tax hikes. Businesses should expect tighter budgets, shifting incentives, and possible demand impacts, while monitoring sovereign financing conditions and government procurement.
Decarbonisation incentives for heavy industry
A new A$321m grants round under the Powering the Regions Fund supports Safeguard Mechanism covered facilities to cut emissions, funding up to 50% of project costs. It boosts demand for clean-tech, electrification and low-carbon materials while increasing compliance expectations for high emitters.
EU-India FTA Reshapes Trade Landscape
The EU-India Free Trade Agreement, praised as historic, eliminates tariffs on nearly all goods and is expected to double Finland–India trade to €6 billion by 2032. This deal will significantly boost Finnish exports, diversify supply chains, and deepen political ties, providing new opportunities in technology, manufacturing, and services.
Hormuz chokepoint maritime insecurity
Heightened US-Iran confrontation is already depressing Gulf shipping activity and increasing war-risk premiums. Iran threatens disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waterways; even limited incidents can spike freight rates, insurance, and delivery times for energy and container cargo.
Security, service delivery, labour disruption
Persistent crime and intermittent municipal service breakdowns—waste collection stoppages, water-utility strikes, and power-substation incidents—create operational risk for sites, staff mobility and last-mile distribution. Businesses increasingly budget for private security, redundancy, and contractual force-majeure safeguards.
Foreign-exchange liquidity and devaluation risk
Egypt’s external financing needs keep FX availability tight, raising risks of renewed pound depreciation, import backlogs, and payment delays. Firms should plan for fluctuating LC/TT settlement, higher hedging costs, and periodic administrative controls that can disrupt procurement cycles and profit repatriation.
Sanctions expansion and enforcement
New US sanctions packages—especially on Iran’s oil “shadow fleet” and crypto-linked channels—tighten financial and shipping compliance for traders, insurers, and banks. Extra-territorial exposure increases for third-country counterparties, with elevated due-diligence and payment-settlement risk.
Regulatory Changes and Labor Compliance
Recent labor reforms include a 13% minimum wage hike, stricter workplace inspections, and new rules for app-based workers. Businesses must adapt to evolving compliance requirements, increased enforcement, and potential cost pressures in sectors like automotive and technology.
Foreign real estate ownership liberalization
New rules enabling foreign ownership of land (with limits in Makkah/Madinah) are lifting international demand for Saudi property and mixed-use developments. This improves investment entry options and collateralization, but requires careful title, zoning, and regulatory due diligence.
Critical minerals and battery supply chains
Canada is positioning itself as a “trusted supplier” of critical minerals, supporting mining, processing and battery ecosystems. This creates opportunities in offtakes and JV processing, but permitting timelines, Indigenous consultation, and infrastructure constraints can delay projects and cashflows.
Stricter data-breach liability regime
Proposed amendments to the Personal Information Protection Act would shift burden of proof toward companies, expand statutory damages, and add penalties for leaked-data distribution. Compliance, incident response, and cyber insurance costs likely rise, especially for high-volume consumer platforms and telecoms.
Oil exports pivot to Asia
Despite restrictions, Iranian crude continues flowing mainly to China at discounted pricing via complex logistics. This reshapes regional refining economics and creates exposure for Asian importers and service providers to secondary sanctions, sudden enforcement shifts, and payment-settlement disruptions.
Energy security via long LNG
Japan is locking in long-duration LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for ~3 Mtpa from 2028 and potential Japanese equity in Qatar’s North Field South. This supports power reliability for data centers/semiconductors but reduces fuel flexibility via destination clauses.
EU CEPA nearing completion
IEU‑CEPA negotiations have entered legal scrubbing, with completion targeted May 2026 and implementation aimed for January 2027. Indonesia expects up to 98% tariff-line elimination (around 90% duty‑free both ways), boosting EU-linked manufacturing, services, and investment planning.
Data sovereignty and EU compliance
Finland’s role as a ‘safe harbor’ for sensitive European workloads, including large cloud investments, strengthens trust for enterprise XR data and simulation IP. International firms still need robust GDPR, security auditing, and third-country vendor risk management in procurement and hosting decisions.
Tariff volatility and legal risk
Rapidly shifting “reciprocal” tariffs and sector duties (autos, lumber, pharma, semiconductors) are raising landed costs and contract risk. Pending court challenges to tariff authorities add uncertainty, pushing firms toward contingency pricing, sourcing diversification, and accelerated customs planning.
Energy Transition And Renewables Expansion
Khanh Hoa and other provinces are advancing large-scale renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and nuclear. National policies support the shift to green energy, grid stability, and green hydrogen, enhancing Vietnam’s energy security and export potential in the clean tech sector.
Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks
Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.
Сжатие азиатского спроса на нефть
Риски сокращения импорта Индией и санкционное давление увеличивают скидки на российскую нефть: дисконты ESPO к Brent около $9/барр., Urals — ~$12, а поставки в Индию падали до ~1,3 млн барр./сут. Россия сильнее зависит от Китая.
Tech Controls and China Decoupling
U.S.-China technology rivalry continues to constrain semiconductor and AI supply chains via export controls and licensing, while China accelerates substitution. Firms face dual-ecosystem risks, tighter compliance, potential reconfiguration of R&D and manufacturing footprints, and higher costs for advanced computing capacity.
US trade access and tariff risk
AGOA has been extended only one year, restoring preferences but preserving policy uncertainty and potential eligibility reviews. South Africa accounted for about half of the $8.23bn AGOA exports in 2024; short renewals complicate automotive, metals and agriculture investment decisions and contracting horizons.
Semiconductor reshoring and export controls
Taiwan’s chip sector faces simultaneous pressures: US tariffs on certain advanced chips, tighter tech controls toward China, and major offshore fab investment. Firms must redesign compliance, IP protection, and capacity allocation while managing customer qualification and margin impacts.
Foreign Direct Investment Surges Amid Reforms
FDI in Saudi Arabia rose 10% to $280 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting regulatory reforms and incentives targeting $100 billion annual FDI by 2030. The Kingdom’s efforts to attract long-term foreign capital are reshaping ownership, partnership, and market entry strategies for global investors.
Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD
A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.
Optics and photonics supply expansion
Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.
External financing and conditionality
Ukraine’s budget and defense sustainability depend on large official flows, including an EU-agreed €90 billion loan and an IMF Extended Fund Facility. Disbursements carry procurement, governance, and reform conditions; delays or missed benchmarks can disrupt public payments and project pipelines.
Sanctions-evasion finance via crypto
Investigations and analytics reports allege extensive use of stablecoins and crypto networks by Iranian state-linked entities, including hundreds of millions in USDT and billions moved by IRGC-linked wallets. This increases AML/CTF scrutiny, counterparty risk, and enforcement actions for fintechs.
High-tech FDI and semiconductors
FDI remains resilient and shifts toward higher-value electronics and semiconductors, with 2025 registered FDI at US$38.42bn and realized US$27.62bn; early-2026 approvals exceed US$1bn in key northern provinces. This supports supply-chain diversification but increases competition for talent and sites.
Port labor and automation tensions
East/Gulf Coast port labor negotiations and disputes over automation remain a recurring tail risk for U.S. logistics. Even with tentative deals, threats of slowdowns or strikes can disrupt ocean schedules, raise demurrage, and push costly rerouting toward West Coast or air freight.
US trade deal and tariffs
Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.
EU market access and GSP+ scrutiny
Pakistan’s duty-free access under EU GSP+ (extended to 2027) is pivotal for textiles and apparel, but remains linked to 27 conventions and rights monitoring. Any compliance slippage or preference erosion would raise landed costs and disrupt buyer sourcing decisions.
US–Indonesia reciprocal tariff deal
Jakarta and Washington say negotiations on a reciprocal tariff agreement are complete and await presidential signing. Reports indicate US duties on Indonesian exports fall from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia removes tariffs on most US goods and may accept clauses affecting digital trade and sanctions alignment.