Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 31, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation is currently marked by President Trump's controversial policies, which have impacted various countries and regions. In Myanmar, the UN Chief has urged a return to civilian rule as the country faces a worsening crisis, with millions in need of humanitarian aid and rising food insecurity. Afghanistan is also facing challenges due to President Trump's suspension of foreign aid, leading to anxiety over food supplies and disruptions for charities. Greece's popular tourist island of Santorini is experiencing increased volcanic activity, which could impact tourism and local communities. Additionally, Denmark and the EU are rallying against Trump's ambitions for Greenland, emphasising territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Trump's Tariff Showdown with Colombia
President Trump's tariff showdown with Colombia has sent ripples through Latin America, signalling turbulent times ahead. The dispute, sparked by Colombian President Gustavo Petro's refusal to accept deportees, led to Trump imposing a 25% tariff on Colombian exports, with threats of escalation. This standoff sends a clear message to Latin America that resistance to U.S. immigration policies will be met with swift economic consequences. Left-leaning governments, especially those misaligned with Washington's priorities, should expect heightened scrutiny and pressure. Smaller economies reliant on U.S. trade may face significant risks, as Trump's willingness to weaponize immigration and tariffs could disrupt regional economic balance and erode trust in U.S.-Latin American relations.
China and Russia may benefit from this situation, as some countries may strengthen ties with these U.S. competitors to counterbalance U.S. influence. Colombia's concession avoided a trade war, but other Latin American countries may be tempted to defy Trump, potentially compromising their sovereignty and economic stability.
Trump's Impact on Canada and the U.S.-Canada Relationship
President Trump's policies are also driving a wedge between Canada and the United States, with discussions about Canada potentially joining the EU. Canada is seeking ways to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary suggesting swift border action. This strained relationship could have significant implications for trade and security cooperation between the two countries.
Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar
The UN Chief has called for a return to civilian rule in Myanmar as the country faces a worsening humanitarian and human rights crisis, with nearly 20 million people expected to need aid. Hunger has reached alarming levels, with 15 million people projected to face acute food insecurity due to soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions. Conflict and displacement have further exacerbated the situation, with millions fleeing across borders and communities on the brink of collapse.
The UN has expressed concerns over the military's plan to hold elections, warning that intensifying conflict and human rights violations do not permit free and peaceful polls. The UN has called for stronger sanctions, restrictions on the junta's access to weapons, and support for international justice mechanisms to address the root causes of the crisis.
Trump's Ambitions for Greenland and EU Response
President Trump's ambitions for Greenland have ignited tensions between the U.S. and European nations, particularly Denmark, over the strategically important territory. Trump's threats of military action have prompted a united response from Denmark and the EU, highlighting the geopolitical significance of Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has reiterated Denmark's firm stance, stating that "Greenland is Greenland and the Greenlandic people are people."
The EU has expressed solidarity with Denmark, signalling potential collective military readiness and a lack of tolerance for unilateral U.S. actions. Denmark has announced plans to increase its military capabilities and strengthen its position within the North Atlantic, bolstering surveillance and sovereignty over the Arctic region. This crisis also underscores the EU's commitment to safeguarding its member states and territorial integrity.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
Given the evolving global situation, businesses and investors should closely monitor developments and assess the potential impact on their operations in the affected regions. For those with interests in Latin America, closely monitoring the evolving relationship between the U.S. and Colombia and its potential impact on trade and investment is crucial. Engaging in scenario planning and developing contingency strategies can help businesses mitigate risks and adapt to changing circumstances.
In the context of Trump's policies, businesses should consider the potential implications for their supply chains, market access, and overall business environment. Diversifying markets and supply chains may be prudent to reduce exposure to potential disruptions.
As the situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate, businesses with operations or supply chains in the region should prioritise the safety of their employees and consider contingency plans to ensure business continuity.<co: 0,1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,13,14>ensure business continuity.</
Further Reading:
'Uncertainty never ends' as deal to free Cuba prisoners unravels under Trump - Citizentribune
Myanmar: UN chief urges return to civilian rule as crisis worsens - UN News
New FM Laura Sarabia must reset Colombia’s image with Washington - The City Paper Bogotá
Secretary of State says Trump's plans for Greenland 'not a joke' - The Center Square
Trump's Greenland Ambitions Stir Unprecedented EU Defenses - Evrim Ağacı
Trump’s Nine-Hour Economic War on Colombia Rattles Markets - Yahoo Finance
Trump’s tariffs loom and even his supporters in Texas are nervous - The Texas Tribune
Themes around the World:
Tax Changes Pressure Business
Pending reforms include VAT on low-value imports, digital platform taxation, customs code updates, and possible broader SME tax changes. These measures aim to shrink an informal economy estimated at 45% of GDP, but raise compliance and pricing implications.
Mining Fiscal Burden Rising
Indonesia is pursuing higher state take from minerals through royalty revisions, benchmark price changes, and discussion of export levies. Even where increases are delayed, the direction is clear: higher fiscal extraction from mining could reshape project returns, supplier contracts, and investment timing.
State Control of Commodity Exports
Jakarta is centralizing exports of palm oil, coal and ferroalloys through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia from June, with fuller rollout by 2027. The shift could tighten oversight and FX retention, but raises transition, pricing, contract and shipment execution risks for traders.
Power Security And Grid Strain
Electricity reliability remains a material operational risk as demand growth could reach 8.5% in a base case and 14.1% in an extreme dry-season scenario. Authorities are accelerating 1,300 MW thermal additions, battery storage, rooftop solar and grid upgrades to prevent shortages.
Corruption Cases Test Business Climate
High-profile NABU and SAPO investigations into senior former officials and alleged laundering linked to energy and defense contracts sharpen scrutiny of governance. For foreign businesses, enforcement can improve transparency over time, but near-term reputational, counterpart and procurement due-diligence risks remain elevated.
Industrial Policy and State Intervention
The planned nationalisation of British Steel highlights a more interventionist industrial strategy focused on strategic capacity, supply resilience and national security. This signals greater state involvement in manufacturing, possible local-content preferences, and a less predictable competitive landscape for investors.
Regional Conflict Spillover Threatens Operations
Missile, drone, and proxy-related escalation involving Gulf states, Lebanon, and shipping lanes continues despite ceasefire efforts. This elevates risks to staff safety, asset security, port reliability, and business continuity planning across the Gulf, especially for firms dependent on regional hubs and just-in-time logistics.
Energy Security and Price Exposure
Thailand remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks, with policymakers highlighting risks from Strait of Hormuz tensions and electricity-cost volatility. Rising fuel and power prices are already affecting manufacturing, tourism, and investment planning, increasing the case for renewables and efficiency upgrades.
Incertidumbre institucional y judicial
La marcha atrás parcial en la reforma judicial confirma fragilidad institucional y complica la confianza empresarial. La baja participación electoral, cambios constitucionales frecuentes y advertencias sobre inversión congelada elevan riesgos en resolución de disputas, cumplimiento contractual y planeación de largo plazo.
Escalating sanctions enforcement risks
EU and UK measures are tightening around Russian oil, banks, crypto channels and third-country facilitators, while Western navies are actively intercepting shadow-fleet tankers. This raises compliance, shipping, insurance and payment risks for firms exposed to Russian-linked cargoes or counterparties.
Inflation Moderates, Rate Risks Remain
Headline inflation slowed to 2.8% in April from 3.3%, while services inflation fell to 3.2% from 4.5%. But the Bank of England still sees geopolitical energy shocks as a major risk, keeping borrowing costs, sterling volatility and investment planning uncertain.
Electronics FDI Deepening
Vietnam continues attracting large-scale electronics and industrial investment, especially from South Korea. Korean investors account for more than 10,400 projects worth US$98.9 billion, while Samsung’s ecosystem alone reportedly includes over 1,000 suppliers, reinforcing Vietnam’s role in regional manufacturing diversification.
Maritime and Energy Route Vulnerabilities
Conflict-linked disruption around Hormuz and concerns over Malacca and South China Sea chokepoints underscore China’s trade exposure. Around 80% of China’s energy imports transit Malacca, making shipping, insurance, and energy-intensive operations vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
Economic Contraction and Demand Weakness
The IMF expects Iran’s economy to shrink by about six percentage points next year, reflecting sanctions, conflict damage and trade restrictions. Businesses face weakening consumer demand, lower insurance and discretionary spending, and heightened uncertainty around revenue forecasts and capital allocation.
Sanctions Enforcement Shapes Trade
Ukraine and partners are intensifying action against Russian sanctions-evasion networks, including crypto channels and shell structures linked to military procurement. Tighter enforcement can reshape regional payments, intermediary exposure, compliance screening, and cross-border transaction risks for international firms.
Cambodia Border Dispute Disruptions
Escalating Thailand-Cambodia tensions, including closed crossings and UNCLOS maritime proceedings, are disrupting more than 100 billion baht in annual border trade while constraining labor mobility, energy development and logistics planning for firms exposed to eastern provinces and cross-border sourcing.
Sanctions Pressure on Energy Exports
Western sanctions and shifting waiver rules continue to disrupt Russian oil trade, shipping and payments. Despite resilient flows to China and India, compliance risks, shadow-fleet exposure, and infrastructure attacks complicate export logistics, pricing, insurance, and long-term energy investment decisions.
Banking Isolation and Frozen Assets
Iran’s financial system remains constrained by sanctions, restricted cross-border settlement and disputes over access to frozen overseas assets. This complicates trade finance, repatriation and supplier payments, forcing firms toward costly workarounds and increasing counterparty, transparency and enforcement risks.
High-Skilled Immigration Policy Disruption
New USCIS guidance sharply restricts in-country green card adjustment, potentially forcing many H-1B, L-1, and OPT workers to process abroad. Multinationals may face higher talent retention risk, project delays, legal uncertainty, and operational strain in technology, healthcare, education, and research-intensive sectors.
Energy shock widens external gap
The Iran war pushed Brent nearly 50% higher, raising Turkey’s energy import bill and widening March’s current-account deficit to $9.6-$9.7 billion, about 2.6% of GDP annualized. Higher fuel, petrochemical and fertilizer costs are pressuring manufacturers, transport and trade balances.
Security Gains and Regional Investment
Government officials are linking reduced domestic terrorism threats to faster investment and energy development in southeast Turkey. Expanded production in Gabar and planned drilling in Diyarbakir may improve regional infrastructure and industrial activity, though execution and security risks remain.
Energy hub role deepens
Turkey is reinforcing its role as a regional energy corridor through TANAP, TurkStream, Ceyhan and new Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline plans. This improves long-term supply-chain resilience and industrial competitiveness, but leaves businesses exposed to regional conflict and energy-price volatility.
Energy windfall and volatility
Higher oil prices are boosting fiscal revenues and corporate earnings, with Aramco first-quarter net profit up 25.5% to SAR120.13 billion and oil export revenue reaching $24.7 billion. Yet volatility complicates planning, contract pricing, energy procurement, and downstream investment decisions for international firms.
Industrial Carbon Cost Repricing
Federal-provincial energy agreements are reshaping long-term cost structures for heavy industry. Alberta’s industrial carbon price is set to rise from C$95 per tonne today to an effective C$130 by 2040, affecting competitiveness, decarbonization investment decisions, and location choices for energy-intensive operations.
Electricity Stability, Grid Constraints
Power reliability has improved sharply, with roughly 357 consecutive days without load-shedding and diesel spending down 80.7% year on year. But grid expansion, pricing reform and 14,000km of planned transmission lines remain critical for industrial investment decisions.
Inflation Spurs Hawkish Policy
Rising oil prices and stronger chip-led growth are pushing inflation higher, with April consumer inflation at 2.6% and KDI forecasting 2.7% for 2026. Expectations of Bank of Korea tightening are lifting yields and borrowing costs, affecting valuations and capital expenditure decisions.
Weak Growth And Labor Strain
Macroeconomic conditions remain fragile, with unemployment rising to 32.7% in the first quarter, or about 8.1 million people. Weak growth, poverty and cost pressures may curb consumer demand, intensify labor tensions and increase political pressure for more interventionist economic measures.
Red Sea Corridor Under Pressure
Saudi Arabia’s alternative export route increasingly depends on Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb security. With 10-15% of global trade transiting this corridor and renewed blockade threats, companies face elevated shipping risk, rerouting needs, higher premiums, and delivery delays.
Chabahar Corridor Uncertainty
The strategic Chabahar port and wider India-Iran connectivity corridor face renewed uncertainty after sanctions waivers expired. Delayed investment, weak banking support and policy ambiguity threaten access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, reducing Iran’s value as a regional logistics platform.
Electrification Reshapes Industrial Demand
The government is accelerating economy-wide electrification, targeting electricity’s share of final energy use at 34% by 2030 from 27% in 2024. This creates opportunities in charging, heat pumps, grid equipment and electric logistics, while requiring supply-chain adaptation and capital expenditure.
Major Projects Regulatory Reset
Canada is trying to accelerate approvals through its Major Projects Office and national-interest designations, with 22 projects reportedly supported and more than C$126 billion in potential investment. For investors, execution risk remains tied to permitting complexity, Indigenous consultation standards and interprovincial political friction.
Rare Earths Supply Vulnerability
US industry remains exposed to Chinese dominance in rare-earth processing and related equipment, despite recent summit commitments to address shortages. Any renewed bilateral escalation could disrupt inputs critical for electronics, defense, automotive, clean-tech manufacturing, and broader industrial supply resilience.
Food Security and Import Financing
Egypt secured a $1.5 billion ITFC package for food and energy security, including $700 million for commodity imports. Heavy reliance on wheat and staple imports leaves agribusiness, consumer sectors and trade finance exposed to shipping disruption, weather shocks and subsidy changes.
Industrial Overcapacity Driving Trade Pushback
China’s export machine remains powerful even as domestic demand weakens, reinforcing foreign concerns over overcapacity in EVs, solar, and manufacturing. Record trade surpluses and redirected exports increase the likelihood of anti-dumping cases, tariffs, and localization demands across major external markets.
Exchange Rate and Import Exposure
Pakistan’s macro stabilisation has improved reserves, with external buffers reported around $16 billion, but exchange-rate flexibility remains IMF-backed policy. Importers and foreign investors still face rupee volatility, fuel-price pass-through and margin pressure on contracts, procurement and repatriation planning.
Telecom compliance disruption risk
A mandatory mobile-line registration regime is creating operational uncertainty for employers, distributors, and digital businesses. With 82.5% of users reportedly still unregistered and operators warning of implementation costs above MXN4 billion, mass disconnections could disrupt workforce communications and customer access.