Tourism demand mix and margin squeeze

Hotels forecast ~33m foreign arrivals in 2026 versus a 36.7m target; China demand is expected to soften while long-haul grows. Limited room-rate increases and higher labor/social-security costs pressure margins, impacting hospitality, aviation, retail, and real estate revenues.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Historic drought and Mexico–U.S. water treaty obligations are becoming operational risks, particularly for water-intensive industries in northern hubs. Potential rationing, higher tariffs, and community pushback can disrupt production, requiring water audits, recycling investment, and site selection adjustments.

Vision 2030 strategy recalibration

PIF’s 2026–2030 strategy reset shifts Vision 2030 from capital-intensive mega-projects toward industry, minerals, AI, logistics and tourism, while re-scoping NEOM and others. For investors, this changes project pipelines, counterparties, procurement priorities and timeline risk across sectors.

Won volatility and hedging policy shift

The Bank of Korea flagged won weakness around 1,450–1,480 per USD and urged higher FX hedging by the National Pension Service; NPS plans may cut dollar demand by at least $20bn. Currency swings affect import costs, repatriation, and pricing for export contracts.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

De minimis rollback affects e-commerce

Suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment remains in place, increasing landed costs and customs complexity for low-value shipments. Cross-border e-commerce, marketplaces, and SMEs must redesign fulfillment, pricing, and returns, while expecting longer clearance times and higher brokerage fees.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and related maritime “shadow” networks are increasingly enforced with supply-chain due diligence expectations. Counterparties, insurers, shippers, and banks face heightened secondary exposure, trade finance frictions, and cargo-routing constraints for energy and dual-use goods.

Cross-strait coercion and shipping

Rising PRC air–naval activity and ‘quarantine’ style coercion around Taiwan increases shipping and war-risk insurance costs, threatens port throughput, and creates disruption risk for time-sensitive imports (especially LNG) and export logistics, affecting continuity planning and contract clauses.

Macroeconomic instability and FX collapse

The rial’s sharp depreciation and near-50% inflation erode purchasing power and raise operating costs. Importers face hard-currency scarcity, price controls, and ad hoc subsidies, complicating budgeting, wage management, and inventory planning for firms with local exposure or suppliers.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Rising deception and trade opacity

Investigations uncovered a network of ~48 shell entities shipping over $90bn of Russian crude using shared infrastructure, short-lived firms, and opaque labeling. Compliance teams should expect higher documentation fraud, beneficial-ownership complexity, and elevated contractual and reputational risk.

Dollar weakness and policy risk premium

The U.S. dollar’s slide to multi-year lows, amid tariff uncertainty and governance concerns, increases FX volatility for importers and investors. A weaker dollar can support U.S. exporters but raises U.S.-bound procurement costs and complicates hedging strategies.

E-commerce import surge and rules

Officials estimate ~90% of goods listed on major marketplaces are imports, renewing debate on origin tagging and potential local-content display requirements. Cross-border sellers and platforms face evolving compliance, while domestic manufacturers may benefit from protective measures but risk demand-side backlash.

Renewed US tariff escalation risk

Washington signals possible reversion to 25% tariffs, tying relief to South Korea’s $350bn US-investment pledge and progress on “non‑tariff barriers.” Uncertainty raises landed costs and disrupts pricing, contract terms, and US-facing automotive, pharma, and biotech supply chains.

Risco fiscal e trajetória da dívida

Gastos federais cresceram 3,37% acima do teto real de 2,5% em 2025 e o déficit primário ficou em 0,43% do PIB; a dívida bruta chegou a 78,7% do PIB, elevando risco-país, câmbio e custo de capital.

Security, vandalism and criminality risks

Persistent cable theft and rail vandalism raise insurance, security and maintenance costs and deter private participation in logistics. Broader crime elevates risk for warehousing, trucking and staff mobility, requiring fortified facilities, vetted contractors and robust business-continuity planning.

Heat-pump demand volatility

Germany’s heat‑pump market remains policy‑sensitive, with demand swinging as subsidy rules and GEG expectations change. This volatility affects foreign manufacturers’ capacity planning, distributor inventory, and installer pipelines, raising risk for long‑term investment and cross‑border component sourcing.

Automotive transition and investment flight

VDA reports 72% of 124 suppliers are delaying, cutting or relocating German investment; employment fell from 833k (2019) to 726k (2025). EV incentives may depress used values and dealer margins, while CO₂-rule uncertainty complicates capex and sourcing decisions.

Labor reclassification and cost risk

A labor-law package aims to extend protections to roughly 5.7–8.6 million freelancers and platform workers via “presumed worker status,” shifting proof burdens to employers. Businesses may face higher labor costs, disputes, and operational redesign toward automation and subcontracting changes.

US–Indonesia trade pact obligations

Perjanjian ART RI–AS menetapkan tarif 19% pada sebagian besar ekspor RI, dengan pembebasan untuk >1.800 komoditas dan kuota tekstil 0%. Indonesia berkomitmen belanja US$33 miliar dari AS serta menghapus hambatan nontarif, memengaruhi strategi ekspor, input impor, dan kepatuhan digital.

Sanctions-linked energy procurement risk

U.S. tariff relief is tied to India curbing Russian crude purchases, with monitoring and possible tariff snapback. Refiners face contractual lock-ins and limited alternatives (e.g., Nayara). Energy-intensive sectors should plan for price volatility and sanctions compliance.

Semiconductor Tariffs and Industrial Policy

The US is combining higher chip tariffs with conditional exemptions tied to domestic capacity commitments, using firms like TSMC as leverage. A 25% tariff on certain advanced chips raises costs short‑term but accelerates fab investment decisions and reshapes electronics sourcing strategies.

Red Sea routing volatility persists

Carrier reversals on Suez/Red Sea transits underscore persistent maritime insecurity and schedule unreliability. For U.S. importers and exporters, this implies longer lead times, higher inventory buffers, potential demurrage/warehousing costs, and fluctuating ocean capacity and rates.

Auto trade standards and market access changes

Seoul agreed to abolish the 50,000-unit cap recognizing US FMVSS-equivalent vehicles, and broader auto provisions remain in talks amid tariff threats. Even if volumes are modest, rule changes shift competitive dynamics and compliance planning for OEMs and suppliers.

Foreign investment screening delays

FIRB/treasury foreign investment approvals remain slower and costlier, increasing execution risk for M&A and greenfield projects. Business groups report unpredictable milestones and missed statutory timelines, while fees have risen sharply (e.g., up to ~A$1.2m for >A$2bn investments), affecting deal economics.

Defense buildup, industrial mobilisation

Japan’s rapid defense expansion toward 2% of GDP is driving procurement, re-shoring of sensitive manufacturing, and looser defense-export rules. This increases opportunities in aerospace, cyber, shipbuilding and munitions supply chains, but raises compliance, security vetting and capacity-allocation pressures.

LNG export acceleration and energy leverage

Policy has shifted toward faster approvals and “regular order” for non‑FTA LNG export permits, supporting 15–20 year contracting with Europe and Asia. This boosts US energy geopolitics, but creates competitiveness and price-risk considerations for energy‑intensive manufacturers globally.

Non‑tariff barrier negotiation squeeze

U.S. pressure is expanding from tariffs to Korean rules on online platforms, agriculture/quarantine, IP, and sector certifications. Firms should expect compliance costs, product approval delays, and heightened trade-law scrutiny as Korea–U.S. FTA mechanisms and side talks intensify.

Supply chain resilience and port logistics risk

Australia’s trade-dependent sectors remain sensitive to shipping availability, port capacity and industrial relations disruptions. Any bottlenecks can raise landed costs and inventory buffers, particularly for LNG, minerals and agribusiness. Firms are prioritising diversification, nearshoring and stronger contingency planning.

Regulatory shocks at borders

Abrupt implementation of Decree 46 food-safety inspections stranded 700+ consignments (~300,000 tonnes) and left 1,800+ containers stuck at Cat Lai port, exposing clearance fragility. Firms should plan for sudden rule changes, longer lead times, higher testing costs and contingency warehousing.

Escalating sanctions and enforcement

The EU’s proposed 20th package broadens energy, banking and trade controls, including ~€900m of additional bans and 20 more regional banks. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions exposure, stricter compliance screening, and greater uncertainty around counterparties and contract enforceability.

Strategic transport assets under scrutiny

Proposed sale of ZIM to Hapag-Lloyd (~$3.5–4bn) triggered strikes and government review via a “golden share.” Heightened state intervention risk in logistics and critical infrastructure could affect foreign M&A approvals, continuity planning, and emergency supply obligations.

Critical minerals and industrial policy

Canada’s critical-minerals endowment supports batteries, defense, and clean-tech, but policy is tightening on national-security and foreign-investment scrutiny. Expect more conditions on acquisitions, offtakes, and subsidies; firms should structure deals for reviews, Indigenous engagement, and traceability.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s energy system remains highly import-dependent, making LNG procurement and maritime access strategically critical. Recent U.S. trade commitments include roughly US$44.4B in LNG/crude purchases (2025–2029), affecting utilities, industrial power costs, and resilience planning for manufacturers and data centers.

Macro volatility: rates, inflation, peso

Banxico paused its easing cycle, holding the policy rate at 7% amid higher inflation forecasts and trade-tension risks. Higher financing costs and exchange-rate swings affect working capital, hedging and pricing, particularly for import-dependent industries and USD-linked contracts.

PPE 2035: nucléaire relancé

La France adopte la PPE3 par décret: six EPR2 confirmés (première mise en service vers 2038) et option de huit supplémentaires, avec objectifs ENR revus à la baisse. Impacts: coûts électriques, contrats long terme, besoins réseau et localisation industrielle.