Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 25, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The world is facing a number of significant geopolitical and economic challenges. Donald Trump's attempt to buy Greenland has sparked debate and raised concerns about the future of the territory. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff threats against Canada and Mexico have caused fear of a potential trade war and economic damage to these countries. In West Africa, military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are increasing pressure on foreign firms, while Storm Eowyn has caused power cuts and transport chaos in the UK and Ireland. Lastly, the election in Belarus is likely to extend the rule of the country's long-standing dictator. These events have the potential to impact businesses and investors globally, and it is crucial to stay informed and prepared for any potential risks or opportunities that may arise.
Donald Trump's Tariff Threats
Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico on February 1, citing concerns over border security. This move could risk starting a full-blown trade war within the deeply interconnected North American economy, with massive implications for the entire continent. Economists predict that the tariffs would swiftly send the Canadian and Mexican economies into recession and lift consumer prices for Americans on cars, gasoline, and other imported items. However, some analysts believe that Trump is bluffing, as starting a trade war would undermine his promises to boost the US economy and tackle the cost of living. It is possible that Trump may opt not to impose the tariffs, especially if Canada and Mexico agree to renegotiate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this year.
Donald Trump's Attempt to Buy Greenland
Donald Trump is set to meet with Greenland's Prime Minister to discuss the potential purchase of the country, despite strong opposition from Denmark. Greenland is a vital strategic asset with abundant natural resources and sits in the middle of the main Arctic trade routes, an area of growing competition between international superpowers. Russia and China have increased their efforts to control the region, and there are concerns that the US has been caught off-guard. Greenland's Prime Minister has expressed willingness to speak with Trump and is working to arrange a meeting soon. However, Denmark has been firm in its stance that Greenland is not for sale and has its own ruling body.
Storm Eowyn Hits UK and Ireland
Storm Eowyn has caused power cuts and transport chaos in the UK and Ireland, with 42,000 area residents working in blue-collar jobs in the UK and 1.2 million people employed in the Irish economy. The storm has disrupted power supplies, leading to blackouts and power cuts in both countries. Transport networks have also been affected, with train and bus services disrupted and some roads closed due to flooding and fallen trees. The storm has caused significant damage to infrastructure, with some areas experiencing power outages for several days. This event highlights the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to extreme weather events and the need for businesses and governments to invest in resilience and adaptation measures.
Military Governments in West Africa
In West Africa, military governments that took power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020 are increasing pressure on foreign firms, demanding higher taxes and royalties and threatening to revoke licenses and permits. This escalation of tensions has raised concerns among foreign investors and could have significant implications for businesses operating in the region. The military governments' actions are likely driven by a desire to assert control over natural resources and increase revenue for their countries. However, these actions could have unintended consequences, such as driving away foreign investment and undermining economic growth and development in the region. Businesses operating in West Africa should closely monitor the situation and consider strategies to mitigate potential risks, such as diversifying their operations and engaging in dialogue with local stakeholders.
Further Reading:
Power cuts and transport chaos as Storm Eowyn hits Ireland and UK - Citizentribune
Storm Eowyn: What we know so far - Sky News
Trump could do incredible damage to Mexico and Canada with a single signature - CNN
Themes around the World:
Operational volatility and domestic stability
Economic strain and political repression can trigger episodic unrest and policy tightening, affecting labor availability, local distribution, and regulatory predictability. For firms operating via local partners, continuity planning must cover sudden inspections, licensing delays, and reputational exposure.
Trade diversification push beyond U.S.
With U.S. tariff volatility, the Carney government is explicitly targeting major expansion of non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Expect more outbound diplomacy and infrastructure debate to access Asian and European markets—creating opportunities in logistics, port capacity, and export finance.
Agenda ESG e risco Amazônia
Pressão regulatória e de investidores sobre desmatamento e rastreabilidade na cadeia agro-mineral continua elevando due diligence, cláusulas contratuais e risco reputacional. A proximidade de COP30 e instrumentos de carbono reforçam exigências de compliance socioambiental para acesso a mercados.
Energy export rerouting and discounts
Crude and product flows keep shifting toward China, India and Türkiye, often at deeper discounts; Urals’ Baltic discount to Brent widened to about $28/bbl. Buyers face tightening due diligence, price-cap uncertainty, and higher freight/ice costs, impacting refining margins and supply security.
Defense spending and fiscal trajectory
Supplementary defense budgets and higher deficit targets may redirect public spending, raise borrowing needs, and reshape procurement. Opportunities rise for defense suppliers, but civilian infrastructure timelines, tax policy, and sovereign-risk perceptions can shift quickly.
BOJ tightening and yen volatility
With policy rates at 0.75% and debate over March/April hikes amid political pressure and Middle East shocks, the yen remains volatile. FX swings affect import costs, pricing, hedging, and valuation of Japan-based earnings and M&A.
GX-ETS carbon pricing starts
Japan’s GX‑ETS begins April 2026, covering roughly 300–400 large emitters (≥100,000 tCO2 Scope 1). Allowance price band is ~¥1,700–¥4,300/t, with limited offsets. Compliance costs will affect manufacturing, auto, steel, procurement and export competitiveness.
War-driven security disruption risk
Ongoing Russian strikes and frontline volatility create persistent force‑majeure risk for assets, staff, and inventory. Businesses face elevated security, insurance, and continuity costs, periodic outages, and uncertainty around site selection, travel, and project timelines across sectors.
Tariff regime reset, ongoing uncertainty
Supreme Court invalidated broad IEEPA-based ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, but the White House is implementing a time-limited Section 122 global tariff (10–15% for 150 days) and signaling new Section 301/232 actions. Import pricing, contracts, and compliance remain volatile.
Energy grid attacks and rationing
Repeated strikes on generation and transmission continue to drive blackouts and reliance on electricity imports. Manufacturing, cold chains, and data centers must invest in backup power, redundant connectivity, and flexible scheduling; energy-intensive projects face higher operating costs and execution risk.
Suez Canal disruption persists
Major carriers again rerouted away from Suez due to Red Sea security fears. Canal revenue fell from about $9.6bn (2023) to $3.6bn (2024) and Egypt cites ~$10bn losses, lengthening transit times and raising freight/insurance costs.
Arctic LNG logistics under attack
Sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 depends on a small shadow LNG-carrier pool; attacks and rerouting after the Arctic Metagaz incident increase transit times and losses. This constrains volumes, raises shipping costs, and elevates marine security risk for gas and maritime services.
Electricity reliability and capacity shortfalls
CFE’s productive investment fell 24% in 2025 to about 46.6 billion pesos, worsening generation and transmission gaps. Rising demand risks more outages and higher marginal costs, complicating site selection for data centers and factories and increasing reliance on self-generation and PPAs.
Sanctions and enforcement escalation
US sanctions policy—especially relating to Russia, Iran and other high-risk jurisdictions—remains a core operational constraint, with strong enforcement expectations for banks, shippers and traders. Secondary exposure, beneficial-ownership checks, and payments disruptions elevate compliance costs.
Critical minerals and mining reset
Mexico is canceling idle mining concessions (1,126; ~889,500 ha) while pursuing a U.S. critical-minerals plan that could catalyze up to ~$43B investment over six years. Legal certainty, security and environmental permitting will determine whether projects advance and supply chains diversify from China.
Commodity windfall amid constraints
High gold and PGM prices are lifting mining profits and could add tens of billions of rand in taxes and royalties over 2026–2028. This supports the fiscus and currency, but mining still faces power, logistics bottlenecks, and policy certainty issues affecting expansion decisions.
Energy infrastructure attacks, power rationing
Repeated strikes on generation and grid assets force firms onto costly imports and backup power, reducing industrial output and raising operating expenses. Growth is sensitive to localized outages; corporates should plan for intermittent electricity, heating and water disruptions.
Nearshoring investment, capacity constraints
Manufacturing reinvestment continues, especially in northern hubs like Nuevo León (e.g., new automotive logistics/assembly capacity). But water stress, power reliability, permitting bottlenecks and security costs constrain ramp-ups, influencing site selection, capex timelines and supplier localization strategies.
FDI ivmesi ve yatırım teşvikleri
2025’te DYY %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $ oldu; en büyük pay toptan-perakende %32, imalat %31, bilgi-iletişim %14. HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri, 5G yetkilendirmeleri ve sanayi alanı ilanları yatırım çekiyor; ancak finansman maliyeti ve politika algısı seçiciliği artırıyor.
Agua, clima y fricciones EEUU
La escasez hídrica y el Tratado de 1944 añaden riesgo operativo y comercial. México se comprometió a entregar mínimo 350,000 acre‑pies anuales a EE. UU. y a saldar adeudos; Washington se reserva medidas comerciales si hay incumplimiento, afectando agroindustria y manufactura regional.
Labor enforcement, expat hiring costs
Revised labor penalties include SAR10,000 for hiring non-Saudis without permits, SAR1,000 per worker for contract e-documentation failures, and heavy unauthorized recruitment fines up to SAR250,000. This raises compliance risk and may increase labor costs amid Saudization targets.
Persistent sectoral national-security tariffs
Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, autos and other products remain outside the IEEPA ruling, sustaining cost pressure for manufacturers and construction. With Section 301 investigations signaled as the next durable tool, firms should expect continued targeted tariff escalation and exemptions management.
Tourism downturn from China tensions
Inbound arrivals fell 4.9% year-on-year in January as Chinese visitors plunged 61%, after Beijing travel warnings tied to Taiwan tensions. Retail, airports, and hospitality face revenue volatility, affecting investment cases and commercial real-estate demand in key destinations.
Fiscal stimulus and execution risk
A €500bn off‑budget infrastructure fund and sharply higher defence outlays are lifting factory orders, but delivery capacity and procurement bottlenecks may slow real-economy impact. For investors, timing risk affects construction, engineering, digital and public‑sector contracting pipelines.
Expanded Russia sanctions enforcement
The UK announced its broadest Russia sanctions since 2022, targeting Transneft (moving >80% of Russia’s crude exports) plus 48 shadow-fleet tankers and 2Rivers-linked entities. Firms face heightened compliance, shipping/insurance constraints and secondary exposure risks in energy trade.
Canada–China trade reset, targeted
Canada is partially reopening to China-made EVs via a quota (49,000/year) at 6.1% tariff, while China plans temporary tariff relief on Canadian goods including canola reductions. Opportunities rise in agri-food and EV supply chains, but policy reversals elevate geopolitical and reputational risk.
Foreign-exchange liquidity and rollovers
External stability hinges on reserves, remittances, and rolling over deposits from partners. Pakistan targets about $18bn reserves by June, while relying on large annual rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (reported $12.5bn combined), shaping FX repatriation risk and payment terms.
Sanctions escalation and compliance exposure
EU’s next Russia sanctions package may expand maritime service bans and shadow-fleet targeting amid internal EU resistance. Ukraine also sanctions shadow-fleet actors. Companies must enhance screening, shipping due diligence, and third‑country diversion controls to avoid violations and disruptions.
Fiscal strain and reform risk
France’s 2026 budget passed amid political fragility, with deficits around 5% of GDP and debt near 117%+. Rising borrowing sensitivity increases tax and spending-change risk, affecting investment planning, public procurement pipelines, and consumer demand outlook.
Energy tariffs and circular debt
Power-sector reform remains central: tariff adjustments, subsidy rationalisation, and circular-debt containment affect industrial operating costs and reliability. Volatility in pricing or load management can erode manufacturing margins, complicate contracts, and deter new FDI.
Deflation, weak demand, overcapacity
China’s low CPI (around 0.2% y/y) and ongoing PPI deflation reflect soft domestic demand and persistent industrial overcapacity. Multinationals face margin pressure, aggressive price competition, and greater reliance on exports, raising trade friction and volatility in global pricing.
Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking
Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.
AML tightening after FATF exit
Following removal from the FATF grey list (Oct 2025), authorities are intensifying compliance: crypto “travel rule”, proposed fines up to 10% of turnover for beneficial-ownership noncompliance, and potential public registers. Expect higher KYC costs but improved bankability.
AB ve üçüncü ülke ticaret önlemleri
AB’nin çelikte kota ve korumacı önlemleri sıkılaşıyor; 1 Haziran’da ürün bazında %50’ye varan kotaların ihracatta yaklaşık 3 milyar $ kayıp yaratabileceği öngörülüyor. İhracatçılar yakın pazarlara yöneliyor. Ticaret sapması riski, sözleşme ve pazar stratejilerini yeniden şekillendiriyor.
Sticky inflation, policy uncertainty
February CPI rose 2.96% m/m and 31.53% y/y, with food up 6.89% m/m; disinflation is slowing. Markets now expect a pause in rate cuts. Pricing, wage contracts, and long-lead procurement remain exposed to renewed inflation shocks.
Enerji arzı, LNG ve hublaşma
Türkiye LNG kapasitesini büyütüyor; Avustralya’dan ilk LNG kargosu geldi ve gazın yaklaşık yarısı LNG olarak ithal edilebilir hale geldi. Azerbaycan 2025’te Türkiye’ye 11,915 bcm gaz gönderdi. Tedarik çeşitlenmesi sanayi için güvence sağlarken fiyat oynaklığı sürüyor.