Semiconductor protectionism and reshoring

A targeted 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips, coupled with Section 232 investigations and “tariff offset” concepts, aims to accelerate domestic capacity. Firms face higher component costs, potential broader duties on derivative products, and pressure to localize manufacturing and secure chip inputs.

Banking hidden risks and real-estate spillovers

Banks’ loan guarantees rose 19% to VND 52 trillion in the first nine months, outpacing equity growth and increasing off-balance-sheet exposure (e.g., SBLCs). Thin capital buffers heighten systemic risk; credit tightening could hit construction, suppliers and consumer demand.

Treasury market liquidity drains

Large Treasury settlements and heavy auction calendars can pull cash onto dealer balance sheets, reducing liquidity elsewhere. Tightened repo and margin dynamics raise volatility across risk assets, complicate collateral management, and increase the chance of disruptive funding squeezes for corporates.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

Electronics export surge reshapes supply chains

Electronics exports hit $22.2bn in the first half of FY26; mobile production rose nearly 30x from FY15 to FY25, making India the world’s second-largest phone manufacturer. Opportunities grow in EMS, components, tooling, and specialized logistics.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

Gargalos portuários e leilões críticos

O megaterminal Tecon Santos 10 (R$ 6,45 bi) enfrenta controvérsia sobre restrições a operadores e armadores, elevando risco de judicialização e atrasos. Como Santos responde por 29% do comércio exterior, impactos recaem sobre custos logísticos e prazos.

AI data centres for XR

Large-scale data-centre investments by Google, Microsoft and TikTok are expanding Finland’s compute base, lowering latency for XR rendering and simulation. However, power-price volatility and planned electricity-tax hikes raise operating-cost risk and influence site-selection for immersive workloads.

US trade access and AGOA uncertainty

AGOA has been extended only short-term amid strained US–South Africa relations and eligibility scrutiny. Exporters in autos, agriculture and apparel face tariff cliff risk, contract repricing and investment hesitation, while firms may need contingency routing, rules-of-origin checks and market diversification.

Tariff regime and legal uncertainty

Trump-era broad tariffs face Supreme Court and congressional challenges, creating volatile landed costs and contract risk. Average tariffs rose from 2.6% to 13% in 2025; potential refunds could exceed $130B, complicating pricing, sourcing, and inventory strategies.

Electricity reform and tariff shock

Eskom restructuring remains contested, but Ramaphosa reaffirmed an independent transmission entity and 2026 transmission tenders. Meanwhile Nersa-approved hikes of ~8.8% in 2026/27 and 2027/28 raise input costs, affecting energy-intensive industry, pricing and investment.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Green hydrogen export corridors

Saudi green hydrogen is moving from ambition to execution. ACWA’s Yanbu green hydrogen/ammonia hub targets FEED completion by mid‑2026 and operations in 2030, alongside plans for a Germany ammonia corridor. This creates long-lead opportunities in EPC, shipping, storage, and offtake contracting.

Transactional deal-making with allies

Washington is increasingly using tariff threats to extract investment and market-access commitments from partners, affecting sectors like autos, pharma, and lumber. Businesses should anticipate rapid policy shifts tied to negotiations, with material implications for location decisions, sourcing, and pricing in key allied markets.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Undersea cable and cyber resilience

Taiwan’s connectivity relies heavily on subsea cables and faces recurrent cyber pressure. New initiatives to harden cables and telecoms signal operational risk for cloud, finance, and BPO services; companies should diversify routes, enhance redundancy, and test incident response.

Tax policy and capital gains timing

The federal government deferred implementation of higher capital gains inclusion to 2026, creating near-term planning windows for exits, restructurings, and inbound investment. Uncertainty over final rules still affects valuation, deal timing, and compensation design.

Escalating energy grid disruption

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are driving nationwide power rationing, forcing factory downtime, higher generator and fuel imports, and unstable cold-chain logistics. Grid repairs are slow due to scarce transformers and long lead times, raising operating costs and continuity risk.

Strait of Hormuz security risk

Rising U.S.–Iran tensions and tanker incidents increase the probability of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Even without closure, higher war-risk premia, rerouting, and convoying can inflate logistics costs, tighten energy supply, and disrupt just-in-time supply chains regionally.

Trade compliance and reputational exposure

Scrutiny of settlement-linked trade and corporate due diligence is intensifying, including EU labeling and potential restrictions. Companies face heightened sanctions, customs, and reputational risks across logistics, retail, and manufacturing, requiring enhanced screening, traceability, and legal review.

Carbon competitiveness policy uncertainty

Industrial carbon pricing (OBPS and provincial systems) remains central to decarbonization incentives, but is politically contested. Potential policy shifts create uncertainty for long-horizon projects in steel, cement, oil and gas, and clean tech, affecting capex, compliance costs, and supply contracts.

US–China trade realignment pressure

South Africa is navigating rising US trade frictions, including 30% tariffs on some exports and lingering sanctions risk, while deepening China ties via a framework/early-harvest deal promising duty-free access. Firms should plan for rules-of-origin, retaliation and market diversification.

Domestic demand pivot and policy easing

Beijing is prioritizing consumption-led growth in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30), targeting final consumption above 90 trillion yuan and ~60% of GDP. The PBOC signals “moderately loose” policy and ample liquidity. Impacts include shifting sector opportunities toward services and consumer subsidies.

Critical minerals and battery supply chains

Canada is positioning itself as a “trusted supplier” of critical minerals, supporting mining, processing and battery ecosystems. This creates opportunities in offtakes and JV processing, but permitting timelines, Indigenous consultation, and infrastructure constraints can delay projects and cashflows.

AI hardware export surge and tariffs

High-end AI chips and servers are driving trade imbalances and policy attention; the U.S. deficit with Taiwan hit about US$126.9B in Jan–Nov 2025, largely from AI chip imports. Expect tighter reporting, security reviews, and shifting tariff exposure across AI stacks.

Fiscal consolidation and tax changes

War-related spending lifted debt and deficit pressures, prompting IMF calls for faster consolidation and potential VAT/income tax hikes. Businesses should expect tighter budgets, shifting incentives, and possible demand impacts, while monitoring sovereign financing conditions and government procurement.

Energy transition meets grid constraints

Renewables are growing rapidly, yet Brazil curtailed roughly 20% of wind/solar output in 2025 with estimated losses around BRL 6.5bn, reflecting grid bottlenecks. Investors must factor transmission availability, curtailment clauses and regulatory responses into projects and PPAs.

Immigration politics and labor supply

Foreign labor is now a core election issue. Japan plans to accept up to 1.23 million workers through FY2028 via revised visas while tightening residence management and enforcement. For employers, this changes hiring pipelines, compliance burdens, and wage/retention competition.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Tariff Volatility and Litigation Risk

On‑again, off‑again tariff actions and court challenges are driving demand swings and front‑loading. Forecasts show US container imports down 2% YoY in H1 2026, with March -12% and April -7.1%, complicating pricing, contracts, and inventory planning.

US tariff and NTB pressure

Washington is threatening to restore 25% tariffs unless Seoul delivers on a $350bn US investment pledge and eases non-tariff barriers (digital rules, agriculture, auto/pharma certification). Policy uncertainty raises pricing, compliance, and sourcing risks for exporters.

Crime, corruption and governance strain

Allegations of syndicate infiltration and corruption within policing and procurement elevate security, extortion, and compliance risks for investors. Weak enforcement can disrupt logistics corridors and construction sites, raise insurance costs, and complicate due diligence and partner selection.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring push

A new 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors, alongside ongoing incentives for domestic capacity, is reshaping electronics and AI hardware economics. Firms face higher input costs near-term, while medium-term investment flows shift toward U.S. fabs amid persistent dependence on foreign suppliers.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

The Bank of Japan’s post-deflation normalisation (policy rate at 0.75% after December hike) keeps FX and JGB yields volatile, raising hedging costs and repricing M&A and project finance. Authorities also signal readiness to curb disorderly yen moves.

Critical minerals and rare earth security

Seoul is moving to strengthen rare-earth supply chains by easing public-sector limits on overseas resource development, expanding domestic processing and recycling, and coordinating with partners while managing China export-control risks. This supports EV, wind, defense, and electronics supply continuity and investment pipelines.

LNG export surge and permitting pipeline

The US is expanding LNG exports and new capacity proposals, supporting allies’ energy security but tightening domestic gas balances in some scenarios. Energy-intensive industries face price uncertainty; traders and shippers should watch FERC/DOE approvals, contract structures, and infrastructure bottlenecks.