Energy transition versus security tensions

Australia’s energy security response included temporarily relaxing fuel-quality standards and drawing down reserves, potentially clashing with decarbonisation expectations. For investors, the episode raises policy volatility risk across energy, transport and heavy industry, alongside scrutiny of price-gouging and market conduct.

Climate and Food Supply Risks

Flood damage, agricultural volatility and rising food import dependence are increasing operational and inflation risks. Food imports reached $5.5 billion in 7MFY26, while climate-related crop shortfalls have already triggered emergency purchases, exposing agribusiness, consumer sectors and transport-intensive supply chains to instability.

Trade Exposure To External Shocks

Indonesia remains vulnerable to external disruptions from Middle East energy routes, U.S. trade actions, and capital outflows. Pressure on fuel imports, the rupiah, and sovereign ratings can quickly transmit into freight costs, hedging needs, and foreign-investment risk premiums across sectors.

Energy Investment And Offshore Expansion

Petrobras is consolidating offshore assets, buying Petronas stakes for US$450 million in fields producing about 55,000 barrels per day, while northern logistics planning advances near Amapá. The trend supports oilfield services and infrastructure investment, though environmental and political sensitivities remain material.

GCC Supply Chain Integration

Riyadh is deepening Gulf logistics integration through storage zones, truck rule easing, and cross-border freight facilitation. Saudi land ports handled 88,109 outbound GCC trucks in 25 days, while Dammam now offers redistribution zones and storage-fee exemptions up to 60 days.

Property Slump Fiscal Spillovers

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on growth and local finances. Property investment fell 11.1%, sales by floor area dropped 13.5%, and new housing starts plunged 23.1%, constraining construction-linked demand, municipal spending, payment conditions, and private-sector confidence.

US Trade Probe Escalation

Seoul is responding to new U.S. Section 301 probes on excess capacity and forced labor, with autos and semiconductors exposed. The risk of fresh tariffs or compliance burdens could reshape export pricing, investment allocation, and Korea-U.S. production strategies.

E-commerce Parcel Rules Tighten

France is intensifying checks on low-value e-commerce imports after introducing a €2 tax on small parcels, with an EU levy lifting charges to €5 from July. Retailers using Chinese cross-border fulfillment face higher compliance, border friction and cost pressure.

Regional Conflict Reshapes Corridors

Middle East conflict is disrupting trade assumptions and prompting Turkey to position itself as a more important production, logistics and services hub. Businesses should track emerging corridor investments, but also account for heightened regional security, insurance and transport-risk premiums.

Semiconductor geopolitics and export controls

US controls on advanced AI chips are clouding demand visibility for Samsung and SK Hynix, especially in HBM memory tied to Nvidia shipments. China-market restrictions, bloc fragmentation, and Korean fab exposure raise earnings, compliance, and supply-chain strategy risks.

High-Tech FDI Upgrade Drive

Vietnam is attracting larger technology-led projects, including a US$1.2 billion electronics investment, while disbursed FDI rose 8.8% to over US$3.2 billion in early 2026. This supports deeper integration into electronics, digital infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing supply chains despite cautious investor expansion.

Tech retention drives tax policy

Israel is moving to protect its core innovation base through a direct R&D tax credit tied to the 2026 budget. The measure responds to the 15% global minimum tax, while brain-drain concerns and democracy-related uncertainty continue to weigh on multinational location decisions.

Inflation And Import Cost Pressures

Cost pressures are intensifying for importers and manufacturers as the National Bank holds rates at 15%. Headline inflation reached 7.6% in February, fuel prices rose 12.5% in March, and higher oil could add $1.5-3 billion to Ukraine’s import bill.

Hormuz Chokepoint and Shipping Controls

Iran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz has slashed transits by roughly 90-95%, raised war-risk insurance, and introduced IRGC clearance and toll demands, disrupting oil, LNG, container flows, delivery schedules, and compliance planning for firms reliant on Gulf shipping.

China-Centric Shadow Trade Networks

Iran still relies heavily on opaque oil sales to Chinese private refiners through shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers, and front companies. This raises sanctions, reputational, and due-diligence risks for any firm exposed to maritime services, commodity trading, or indirect Iranian-linked supply chains.

Macro Volatility and Demand Slowdown

Mexico’s macro backdrop is mixed for business planning. Banxico cut rates to 6.75% despite inflation rising to 4.63%, the peso weakened past 18 per dollar, and manufacturing output fell 1.8% in January, signaling softer industrial demand and planning uncertainty.

US Tariff Regime Volatility

Washington is rapidly rebuilding tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA duties, using Section 232, Section 301 and Section 122. New pharmaceutical tariffs reach 100%, while metal duties remain up to 50%, complicating sourcing, pricing and contract planning.

Fiscal Strain From War

Israel approved a 2026 budget of NIS 699 billion with defence spending around NIS 143 billion and a 4.9% GDP deficit target. Higher borrowing, civilian spending cuts and new levies could reshape tax, subsidy and procurement conditions affecting investors and operating costs.

Regional war disrupts commerce

Conflict linked to Iran and Gaza remains the dominant business risk, driving airspace restrictions, border uncertainty and elevated insurance costs. Ben-Gurion operations were cut to one flight an hour, while repeated security shifts complicate travel, logistics planning and continuity management.

Sanctions divergence raises compliance risk

Temporary US easing on Russian oil contrasts with unchanged UK/EU restrictions, creating a ‘two-tier’ sanctions environment. Banks, traders and insurers face higher screening, documentation and legal-risk burdens, especially for energy, shipping and commodity-finance transactions routed through London.

China–West competition for minerals

Indonesia is balancing Chinese dominance in nickel processing and exports with expanded US investor access and potential export-barrier relaxation. Firms must manage geopolitics, partner risk, technology-transfer sensitivities and potential third-country punitive trade measures in contracts.

Semiconductor and High-Tech Upgrading

Vietnam is moving up the electronics value chain through semiconductor packaging, design and fabrication investment. Projects include Amkor’s $1.6 billion plant and Viettel’s 32-nanometer fab, but infrastructure, power, water and skilled-engineer shortages still constrain large-scale expansion.

Inflation And Financing Pressures Build

With reserves under strain and the budget rule suspended, Russia is leaning more on domestic borrowing, weaker reserve buffers, and possible tax hikes. This raises inflation, currency, and interest-rate risks, complicating pricing, wage planning, consumer demand forecasts, and local financing conditions for businesses.

Environmental finance rules tighten

New rural-credit rules require banks to screen borrowers for deforestation using satellite data, affecting roughly R$278 billion in controlled-rate farm lending and parts of the R$600 billion LCA market. Agribusiness financing, sourcing, and ESG due diligence will become more stringent.

Middle East Shock Transmission

Pakistan remains highly exposed to Middle East conflict through oil prices, freight rates, insurance premia, and tighter financial conditions. The IMF warns these pressures could weaken growth, inflation, and the current account, while airlines and exporters already face surcharges, route suspensions, and rising operating costs.

Climate and Food Price Shocks

The central bank cited drought and frost as drivers of food inflation, alongside administered price increases in natural gas and municipal services. These shocks raise operating costs for food processors, retailers, and hospitality businesses while complicating wage negotiations and consumer-demand forecasting.

Tariff Regime Volatility Returns

Washington has reopened Section 301 probes targeting 16 economies and maintains a temporary 10% global tariff for 150 days, with possible replacement duties by midyear. Import costs, sourcing decisions, and contract pricing remain highly exposed to abrupt policy change.

Energy system fragility and resilience

Repeated attacks hit substations, heat and power assets, causing outages across multiple regions. Protection works are scaling (over 90% completion in Sumy), yet the sector needs ~US$90.6bn over 10 years, impacting industrial uptime and capex planning.

Customs Enforcement and Compliance Costs

New customs and trade-compliance requirements are increasing friction for importers and exporters. U.S. officials criticize Mexico’s 2026 customs-law changes for stricter liability, heavier documentation demands and greater seizure powers, raising border risk, delays and administrative costs.

Nickel tax and quota squeeze

Jakarta is tightening nickel policy through possible export duties, higher benchmark prices and stricter RKAB quotas, lifting ore costs and reshaping global battery and stainless supply chains. Proposed levies on NPI, MHP and matte could compress smelter margins and delay investment.

USMCA Review and Tariff Risk

Canada’s July USMCA review is clouded by resumed U.S. sectoral tariffs and new Section 301 probes. With 76% of Canadian goods exports historically going to the U.S., trade uncertainty is delaying investment, hiring, and cross-border production decisions.

Coalition Reforms Raise Policy Uncertainty

The governing coalition is advancing tax, pension, welfare, and health-insurance reforms amid large fiscal gaps, including a €20 billion budget hole in 2027 and €60 billion in each of the following two years. Businesses face uncertainty over taxation, labor costs, and consumer demand.

Earthquake reconstruction demand cycle

Ongoing post-earthquake rebuilding continues to influence domestic demand and construction activity, affecting cement, steel, logistics, and labor markets. For investors, it offers tender and PPP opportunities but also crowding-out risks, cost inflation, and project-execution constraints.

Expanded Trade Enforcement Wave

The U.S. has opened sweeping Section 301 investigations into industrial overcapacity across 16 economies and forced-labor enforcement across about 60. Sectors flagged include autos, semiconductors, batteries, steel and solar, raising risks of new duties, compliance burdens, and supplier reshuffling.

Auto Sector Faces Policy Shock

Autos remain Japan’s most commercially significant export vulnerability, with negotiations focused on reducing current 25% US tariffs on vehicles and parts. Prolonged uncertainty could disrupt production footprints, supplier contracts, and capital allocation across North American and Japanese automotive supply chains.

Tourism Megaproject Connectivity Push

Public Investment Fund-backed tourism projects are driving aviation, hospitality, and infrastructure expansion. Red Sea destination plans include 50 resorts, 8,000 rooms, and over 1,000 residences by 2030, creating opportunities across construction, services, and consumer sectors.