Power security and tariff volatility

Load shedding has eased, but Eskom warns of renewed risk around 2029–2030 as 5.26GW coal retires; tariffs continue rising and drive self-generation. Energy-intensive smelters seek discounts, signalling competitiveness risks for mining, manufacturing, and new investments.

Security and organized crime logistics

Cartel violence and insecurity remain a core operational risk, affecting trucking corridors, warehouses, and employee safety. High-profile enforcement actions can trigger localized disruption and heightened scrutiny at borders, raising insurance costs, transit times, and the need for robust security protocols.

Energy supply shocks and pricing

Israel’s temporary halt of gas exports—covering ~15–20% of Egypt consumption and up to 60% of imports—plus Brent spikes forced domestic fuel hikes of 14–30%. Manufacturers risk power constraints, higher logistics costs and renegotiations of long‑term energy and transport contracts.

Shadow-fleet oil logistics disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on aging “dark fleet” tactics—AIS gaps, reflagging, ship-to-ship transfers—often staged near Malaysia before reaching China. Recent interdictions, including India’s seizure of three Iran-linked tankers, signal higher detention, demurrage, and cargo contamination risks.

M&A canlanması ve özelleştirmeler

Deloitte’a göre 2025’te Türkiye’de birleşme-devralma değeri 16,2 milyar dolara (+%88) çıktı; 500 milyon dolar üzeri 7 “mega” işlem toplamın ~%44’ünü oluşturdu. Yabancı alıcılar 6,9 milyar dolar ile geri dönerken, rekabet onay süreçleri önem kazanır.

Tax uncertainty and compliance burden

Revenue shortfalls are driving pressure for higher effective taxation, including super tax debates, broadening the tax base, and stronger enforcement. Businesses face policy unpredictability, refund delays, and higher compliance costs, affecting pricing, working capital, and expansion decisions.

Hormuz disruption, route diversification

Escalating Iran-linked conflict is disrupting Strait of Hormuz flows, pushing Aramco to reroute crude via the 5 mb/d East‑West pipeline to Yanbu and lifting premiums. Firms should plan for higher freight, insurance, delays, and contingency sourcing.

Biosecurity compliance tightening for imports

Recent DAFF updates add clarified triggers for electronic biosecurity notices and stricter handling of returned meat consignments requiring permits. Importers face higher documentation precision, potential border delays, and elevated spoilage risk in agri-food supply chains.

Escalating strikes on infrastructure

Russia’s intensified drone and missile campaign is repeatedly hitting energy, rail, and port assets, triggering blackouts, heating failures, and logistics disruptions. Businesses face higher downtime risk, added protection costs, and volatile delivery schedules, especially for exporters reliant on fixed corridors.

Energy-price shock exposure via gas

Despite power resilience, France remains exposed to gas-market spikes through indexed contracts and industrial feedstock costs. Around 60% of gas subscribers are on indexed offers; Bercy expects impacts from May, typically under €10/month for households, but higher for energy-intensive firms.

Shipbuilding and LNG carrier upswing

Geopolitical energy reconfiguration is boosting demand for LNG carriers, FLNG and related offshore projects, benefiting Korean yards. However, China is underbidding by ~10% on LNG carriers and gaining early orders, pressuring margins and delivery-slot competition through 2029.

Privatization-led logistics PPP pipeline

The National Privatization Strategy expands PPPs across transport and logistics, targeting logistics at 10% of GDP by 2030. Private investment reportedly exceeds SAR280bn, with SAR18bn+ in ports/zones and faster customs via FASAH (<24h), improving trade facilitation and competition.

Enerji fiyatları, cari açık riski

Türkiye’nin enerji ithalat bağımlılığı, Brent’in ~96 $/varil seviyelerine çıkmasıyla maliyet ve enflasyon kanalı üzerinden büyümeyi baskılıyor. Sürmekte olan şokta akaryakıt vergi “kayar ölçek” mekanizması tampon sağlasa da uzun sürerse cari açık ve fiyatlama riski yükselir.

Tarifas dos EUA pressionam exportadores

Exportações brasileiras aos EUA caíram 20,3% em fevereiro, sétimo mês de queda após sobretaxa de 50% imposta em 2025; o governo estima 22% das exportações ainda atingidas. Empresas recalibram preços, rotas, estoque e diversificação de mercados.

Energy import shock and logistics

Middle East conflict and Hormuz disruptions are lifting fuel, freight and insurance costs. Pakistan raised petrol/diesel by Rs55 per litre and officials warn the oil bill may rise $600m monthly; LNG supply risks add outage and transport-cost uncertainty.

Defense industry expansion and scrutiny

Record defense exports and rapid scaling of production create opportunities in procurement, components, and co-development. However, customers and suppliers must manage tighter export licensing, reputational exposure, and potential contract disruptions tied to battlefield events and coalition politics.

EU–China EV trade recalibration

Europe’s anti-subsidy EV regime is shifting toward “price undertakings” with minimum import prices, quotas, and EU investment pledges. This creates a new pathway for China-made EVs while adding compliance complexity, affecting automotive sourcing, JV structures, and market-access strategy.

Arctic LNG logistics under attack

Sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 depends on a small, aging carrier set, ship‑to‑ship transfers, and long reroutes. The sinking of a shadow LNG carrier and diversions around Suez raise tonne‑mile costs, delivery uncertainty, and counterparty risk for offtakers, shippers, and terminal operators.

LNG Masela export deal nearing

Masela LNG sales talks narrowed to five global buyers (Osaka Gas, Kyushu Electric, Shell, bp, Chevron). Price bids are within ~0.2% of Brent; SKK Migas targets April 2026 decisions. Outcomes affect regional gas supply, project financing timelines, and Indonesian domestic gas allocation.

Investment climate reforms and incentives

Government is advancing a 2025–26 investment action plan: 16 new industrial zones (59,019 hectares), 324 prioritized investments across 81 provinces, and expanded export-credit support (e.g., 58.6B TL via guarantee schemes). This improves site availability but may come with local-content and permitting conditions.

Semiconductor boom, concentrated exposure

Exports are increasingly driven by AI-linked memory and advanced chips, boosting growth but concentrating risk. Price spikes and demand cycles elevate earnings volatility, while U.S. and China tech-policy friction, routing via Taiwan packaging, and export controls complicate contracting and capacity planning.

Industrial policy reshoring conditions

Implementation of CHIPS and clean-energy incentives is accelerating but includes guardrails, domestic-content expectations, and heightened scrutiny of foreign-entity links. This reshapes site selection, joint ventures, and supplier qualification, favoring North American capacity and compliant upstream sourcing.

Corporate governance reforms accelerate

A potential Toyota cross-shareholding unwind of about ¥3tn (~$19–24bn) signals intensifying Tokyo Stock Exchange pressure to dismantle strategic holdings. Expect higher buybacks, M&A, and activism, changing valuation dynamics and partnership stability for foreign investors and suppliers.

Baht volatility and hedging demands

Baht moves are increasingly linked to capital flows, gold dynamics and geopolitical risk; volatility runs ~7–8%. Appreciation tightens exporter margins, while oil shocks can weaken the baht toward 32–33/$, complicating pricing. Banks advise higher hedge ratios (70–80%) for SMEs.

Critical minerals geopolitics and partnerships

Brazil is positioning rare earths and other critical minerals as strategic, courting EU, US and India partnerships and funding. Opportunity is large but hinges on permitting, processing capacity, and geopolitical screening—impacting FDI, offtakes, technology transfer, and supply security planning.

Mining export expansion and bottlenecks

South Africa dominates seaborne manganese trade (~36%) and holds ~three-quarters of identified reserves, but logistics constrain growth. Producers plan a Ngqura terminal targeting 16 Mt/year, replacing Port Elizabeth’s 5.5 Mt capacity, paired with corridor rail upgrades—offering upside if Transnet execution and permitting hold.

Antitrust and platform regulation

DOJ remedies in the Google case, including potential Chrome divestiture and forced sharing of search/AI assets, signal tougher U.S. platform regulation. Multinationals should anticipate changes to digital advertising, data access, cybersecurity responsibilities, and cross-border AI deployment strategies.

China pivot in EVs and agri-trade

Canada is selectively reopening to China-made EV imports—49,000 vehicles at 6.1% tariff (vs 106%)—in exchange for reduced Chinese barriers on canola and other farm goods. The move diversifies trade but adds geopolitical and USMCA negotiation sensitivity for automakers.

Gas reservation and fiscal tightening

A national gas reservation design (15–25% of new supply) and renewed debate over windfall taxes are increasing policy risk for LNG exporters and energy-intensive industry. Contracting, project approvals, and pricing exposure may shift as global volatility feeds domestic politics.

Energy security and sanctions exposure

Middle East escalation and Hormuz disruption risk are amplifying India’s oil and gas vulnerability. A US 30-day OFAC waiver permits limited Russian crude deliveries through early April, but sanction volatility and higher crude prices can disrupt refining margins, shipping insurance, and FX stability.

FDI screening recalibration with China

India eased Press Note 3: non‑controlling land‑border beneficial ownership up to 10% can use automatic route, while China/HK entities still need approval; selected manufacturing proposals get 60‑day decisions. This reduces PE/VC friction, but keeps security-driven scrutiny.

Hormuz shock hits energy logistics

De facto Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting Japan-bound crude/LNG and wider shipping. Japan imports ~90–95% of crude from Middle East and is releasing reserves (15 days private + one month state). Expect higher freight, war-risk insurance, production interruptions.

Defence spending boom and localisation

Defence outlays are projected above €108 billion in 2026, benefiting German primes and suppliers and accelerating capacity expansion in munitions, vehicles, sensors and shipbuilding. However, EU joint-procurement rules and ‘buy-European’ politics may constrain non-EU vendors and partnerships.

US trade scrutiny and tariffs

Vietnam’s US surplus hit $19B in Jan 2026, with exports up 53% to >$20B and 2025 surplus $178B. Washington alleges Chinese transshipment and has launched Section 301 actions; potential penalties include tariffs up to 40%, heightening compliance and sourcing risks.

US-bound investment reshapes supply chains

Korea’s new legal framework to execute a $350bn U.S. investment pledge—$150bn earmarked for shipbuilding—will redirect capital, procurement, and production footprints. Firms should expect faster localization, US content expectations, and tighter governance over commercially “rational” projects.

Labour codes raise cost baseline

New labour codes are driving one-off and ongoing payroll cost increases via higher social security and gratuity provisions. Nifty50 firms booked ~₹13,161 crore incremental Q3 FY26 costs; white-collar sectors may face 3–8% longer-term increases, impacting pricing, outsourcing, and site decisions.