USMCA review and North America rules

USMCA exemptions shield much trade, but the agreement is under mandatory review and political pressure. Businesses should expect potential rule-of-origin tightening, sector carve-outs, and enforcement disputes, affecting auto, energy and agriculture supply chains across North America.

US tariff reset uncertainty

US policy shifts replaced Thailand’s prior 19% reciprocal tariff with a temporary 10% Section 122 duty for 150 days from Feb 24. Authorities expect more product-by-product actions (Sections 232/301) and tighter origin checks, complicating pricing, compliance, and investment planning.

Labor constraints and mobilization effects

Military mobilization, displacement, and infrastructure damage tighten labor availability and raise wage and retention pressures in key sectors. International firms should expect execution delays, higher HSE and HR costs, and greater reliance on automation, remote operations, and cross-border staffing.

Semiconductor-led export concentration

Exports surged 33.9% year-on-year in January, with semiconductor shipments up 103%, sustaining a 12-month surplus streak ($8.74bn in January). Heavy reliance on chips heightens exposure to AI-cycle volatility, export controls, and any U.S. or China tech trade tightening.

Tight labour and skills constraints

Large-scale defence, mining and infrastructure programs are intensifying competition for engineers, trades and apprentices. Wage pressures and project delays can lift EPC costs, extend timelines and raise operational risk for inbound investors reliant on scarce specialist labour.

IMF-backed macro stabilization push

IMF board review could unlock about $2.3bn, reinforcing Egypt’s shift to exchange-rate flexibility and fiscal consolidation. Record reserves near $52.6bn and easing inflation support confidence, but reforms can still trigger price adjustments and policy volatility for investors.

Ports and rail logistics reboot

Transnet’s fragile finances and corridor recovery plans shape export reliability. Budget-backed projects target coal and iron-ore rail capacity restoration and broader logistics upgrades, aiming to reduce backlogs and costs. Execution risk and potential private participation are central for supply chains.

Tariff volatility and legal risk

Supreme Court limits emergency-tariff powers, but Washington pivoted to Section 122 (up to 15% for 150 days) and broader Section 232/301 tools. Importers face whiplash on duty rates, refund uncertainty, and contract/pricing re-negotiations.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 1 USMCA review is clouded by Washington’s tariff-first posture and reported withdrawal talk. Even partial rollbacks remain uncertain. Expect higher compliance costs, volatile rules-of-origin, and elevated hedging needs for North American supply chains and investors.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package expands beyond price caps toward a full maritime-services ban for Russian crude, adds banks and third-country facilitators, and tightens export/import controls. Compliance burdens, secondary-sanctions exposure, and abrupt counterparty cutoffs increase for trade, finance, and logistics.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing imposed dual-use export bans on 20 Japanese entities and tightened licensing for 20 more, with extraterritorial restrictions on China-origin items. This raises compliance, sourcing, and contract-friction risks across aerospace, machinery, autos, and electronics supply chains.

Amazon logistics faces social pushback

Indigenous protests blocked access to Cargill’s Santarém terminal and pressured the government to revoke an order enabling Amazon port expansion and pause dredging plans. Export corridors for soy/corn (Northern Arc) face heightened operational disruption, permitting risk, and reputational exposure.

Macro-finance uncertainty: rates and dollar

Markets remain sensitive to Fed signaling, sticky services inflation, and Treasury issuance dynamics, supporting volatile yields and a firm dollar at times. This affects cross-border financing costs, hedging, commodity pricing, and investment hurdle rates for US-facing projects.

Siyasi-gerilim şokları ve güven primi

IMF değerlendirmesi, 2025 Mart’ındaki piyasa stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlık satışı ve net rezervlerde sert düşüşe işaret ediyor; CDS 250 bp’den 370 bp’ye sıçramıştı. Benzer şoklar yatırım iştahı ve sermaye girişlerini dalgalandırabilir.

China market opening and dependency risks

China’s expanded zero‑tariff access for many African goods and signals of non-reciprocity create upside for South African agriculture (e.g., wool, citrus, wine, macadamias). Yet deeper China integration can widen competitive pressure on local manufacturing and raise geopolitical balancing requirements.

Port expansion and global operators

Saudi Arabia is accelerating hub ambitions via Mawani: January throughput reached 738,111 TEU (+2% y/y) with transshipment up 22%. Deals like APM Terminals buying 37.5% of Jeddah’s South Container Terminal deepen integration with Maersk, affecting routing, capacity and logistics costs.

Cabinet reshuffle reshapes economic policy

A reshuffle created a deputy PM for economic affairs and appointed a new investment and foreign trade minister, signaling a push to accelerate reforms amid prolonged external shocks. Businesses should expect faster policy execution, but also transitional uncertainty in decision-making channels.

Trade remedies and export barriers

Vietnam faces intensifying trade-defense actions in key markets. Example: the US imposed antidumping duties of 47.12% on Vietnamese hard empty capsules, alongside CVDs. Similar risks can spread to steel and other goods, elevating legal costs and reshaping sourcing strategies.

AI chip export controls tighten

Washington is enforcing stringent licensing and end-use conditions for advanced AI chips to China (e.g., Nvidia H200), including KYC and monitoring. Policy swings can quickly change market access, cloud capacity planning, and JV strategies, while raising diversion, enforcement, and reputational risks.

EU partnership on minerals and chips

The EU plans deeper cooperation with Vietnam on critical minerals, semiconductors, and ‘trusted’ 5G, alongside infrastructure investment. Vietnam’s rare earth and gallium potential and its chip packaging base could attract higher-value FDI, but governance, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain binding.

Rail Reliability and Logistics Disruptions

Deutsche Bahn punctuality and major corridor works are undermining predictable freight and business travel; only about 56% of long-distance trains meet on-time targets. Construction closures and delays raise inventory buffers, rerouting costs, and delivery-risk management needs.

Energy diversification and LNG deals

Germany is locking in alternative LNG and storage partnerships, including agreements for up to 1 million tonnes/year LNG for up to 10 years and up to 2 GW battery storage investments. This supports security but embeds exposure to global LNG price cycles and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Digital taxation constrained but VAT continues

Indonesia pledges not to impose discriminatory Digital Services Taxes on US platforms, potentially limiting future revenue tools and platform regulation leverage. However, non‑discriminatory VAT on e‑services (PPN PMSE) continues, shaping pricing, compliance, and market entry.

Illicit logistics hubs and environmental risk

Malaysia’s Johor area has become a key staging hub, with roughly 60 dark‑fleet tankers loitering for ship‑to‑ship transfers before onward shipment to China. Concentration increases accident/spill risk, port-state scrutiny, and sudden clampdowns that can strand cargoes and disrupt chartering.

Foreign interference and disinformation

Taiwan formed a task force to counter foreign election interference ahead of November local elections, targeting disinformation, infiltration and cyber-enabled influence. Political volatility and tighter scrutiny of business networks can affect procurement, approvals, and reputational exposure for multinationals.

Energy export diversification to Asia

Canadian firms are expanding west-coast energy export capacity, with LPG exports to Asia already significant and terminal expansions planned through 2026. Diversifying beyond the U.S. supports price realization and resilience, but requires port, rail, and regulatory reliability plus long-term offtake contracts.

Legislative approval and policy uncertainty

Key cross-border economic initiatives, including the ART and related investment MOU, still require Legislative Yuan review, creating timing and implementation uncertainty. Companies should monitor ratification risk, possible carve-outs, and changes to standards/labeling rules that affect market access and compliance.

Customs system fragility and border delays

National outages of Mexico’s customs IT systems have caused kilometer-long truck queues at key crossings like Otay and Nuevo Laredo, forcing manual processing. This raises dwell times, demurrage and inventory buffers, and increases the value of redundancy in brokers, documentation and routing.

Regulatory capacity, corruption and compliance

Investor confidence depends on effective regulators, enforcement against organised crime, and transparent procurement. Progress such as FATF greylist removal supports financial flows, but municipal arrears, illicit connections, and governance weaknesses continue to elevate operational risk and compliance overhead.

Telecom spectrum and 5G economics

Pelelangan spektrum 700 MHz dan 2,6 GHz pada 2026 ditujukan mempercepat 5G; regulator cost di Indonesia ~12,2% pendapatan operator (vs rata-rata ASEAN 8%). Target cakupan 5G 8,5% luas permukiman 2026, sementara 4G ~99% populasi. Biaya spektrum mempengaruhi rollout, IoT industri, dan kualitas layanan.

Port security and continuity planning

Israeli ports remain operational but face elevated missile/drone and cyber/electronic-interference risks during escalation. Businesses should anticipate contingency operating procedures, tighter security and screening, potential labor constraints, and episodic throughput delays affecting time-sensitive imports, defense logistics, and just-in-time manufacturing.

Oil export concentration to China

Iran’s crude exports remain resilient but highly concentrated: about 46.9 million barrels in January 2026 (~1.51 mb/d), with China absorbing most volumes via relabeling and ship‑to‑ship transfers (often through Malaysia). Any enforcement shift could rapidly reprice Asian feedstocks and freight.

Critical Minerals Supply Security Push

India is negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, building on a Germany pact, focused on lithium and rare earths plus processing technology. This supports EVs, renewables and defence supply chains, while reducing China concentration risk.

Industrial policy subsidies reshaping FDI

CHIPS- and clean-energy-linked incentives, paired with conditional tariff exemptions tied to U.S. production capacity, are redirecting foreign investment into U.S. fabs, batteries, and critical materials. Global firms must weigh subsidy capture against localization costs, labor constraints, and policy durability.

Supply-chain exposure to sectoral probes

Even as some broad tariffs were struck down, U.S. Section 232 investigations into additional sectors (e.g., aircraft, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals) keep Canadian exporters at risk. Companies should scenario-plan for sudden duty changes, certification requirements and localization pressures.

Cross‑strait security and blockade risk

Elevated China–Taiwan tensions and recurring PLA exercises keep contingency risk high for Taiwan Strait shipping, aviation routes, and insurance. Businesses should stress-test just‑in‑time models, diversify logistics corridors, and tighten crisis governance for Taiwan-dependent operations.