Infrastructure Expansion and Logistics

Major investments in logistics, such as the BR-163 highway extension (R$10.6 billion), are improving connectivity for agribusiness and exports. Persistent delays in rail projects highlight ongoing challenges, but road upgrades support supply chain efficiency and export competitiveness.

Sticky Inflation and Consumer Impact

Despite cooling headline inflation, tariffs and supply disruptions keep US inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Households face an average tariff burden of $1,800–$2,100 annually, disproportionately affecting lower-income groups and dampening consumer sentiment, with implications for retail and investment.

Wage growth versus inflation

Spring ‘shunto’ negotiations aim to sustain at least 5% wage hikes for a third year, after two years above 5%, to restore falling real wages. Outcomes will influence domestic demand, retail pricing, service-sector margins, and labor cost assumptions for multinationals operating in Japan.

Pivot to Asian and Friendly Markets

Russia has redirected over 85% of its trade to 'friendly' countries, notably China, India, and Central Asia, following Western sanctions. This shift has deepened economic ties, diversified export portfolios, and reduced Russia’s reliance on Western markets, but also increases exposure to geopolitical shifts in Asia.

Foreign Investment Scrutiny in Strategic Sectors

Australian authorities have intensified scrutiny of foreign—especially Chinese—investment in critical minerals and infrastructure. Recent court actions and forced divestments signal a tougher regulatory stance, affecting deal structures, ownership risks, and market access for international investors.

Tax enforcement, digitisation, disputes

IMF-mandated tax reforms expand enforcement, digital payments and FBR capability, while high taxes are cited in multinational exits. Contractual tax disputes (e.g., “super tax” in petroleum) add legal uncertainty, affecting project finance, arbitration risk, and long-term investment appetite.

Geopolitical Shifts and Regional Integration

Turkey's strategic location is increasingly pivotal amid shifting global alliances, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and EU enlargement debates. Ankara's foreign policy emphasizes regional cooperation, energy corridors, and mediation roles, affecting supply chains and cross-border investments.

Currency Collapse and Hyperinflation

Iran's rial has plunged to record lows, now trading at 1.4–1.5 million per US dollar, with inflation nearing 50%. This currency crisis, driven by sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption, has triggered mass protests, eroded purchasing power, and created severe import and operational challenges for businesses.

Climate Policy and Infrastructure Investment Uncertainty

US climate and infrastructure policy shifts, including reversals of clean energy initiatives, create uncertainty for global investors. Geopolitical competition over infrastructure standards and data systems is intensifying, impacting long-term planning for sustainable business operations.

US Energy Transition and Climate Policy

Federal investment in clean energy and infrastructure modernization is accelerating, but regulatory uncertainty and political resistance persist. Businesses face shifting incentives, compliance requirements, and supply chain adjustments as the US seeks to balance energy security with climate commitments.

Currency Volatility and Capital Controls

The ruble’s real effective exchange rate surged 28% in 2025, driven by a trade surplus and high interest rates. While this curbed inflation, it hurt export competitiveness and budget revenues, complicating financial planning for foreign investors and multinational operations.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu için çalışmaları hızlandırma sinyali verdi; EIB’nin Türkiye’de operasyonlarına kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. Kapsamın hizmetler, tarım ve kamu alımlarına genişlemesi tedarik zinciri entegrasyonunu güçlendirebilir; takvim belirsiz.

Cross-border data and security controls

Data security enforcement and national-security framing continue to complicate cross-border transfers, cloud architecture, and vendor selection. Multinationals must design China-specific data stacks, strengthen incident reporting, and anticipate inspections affecting operations, R&D collaboration, and HR systems.

Manufacturing and Chemicals Structural Weakness

Despite modest GDP growth, Germany’s manufacturing and chemicals sectors face persistent output declines, plant closures, and job losses. Global competition, high energy costs, and regulatory burdens threaten long-term competitiveness, requiring strategic adaptation for international investors.

Widespread Civil Unrest and Political Instability

Nationwide protests over economic collapse and political repression have resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. The instability has led to internet shutdowns and business disruptions, significantly raising operational and security risks for foreign firms.

Technology Sector Volatility and AI Investment

Major US tech firms are ramping up AI investments, but market performance is diverging due to supply chain disruptions and tariff uncertainty. Long-term AI adoption promises sectoral transformation, yet near-term volatility affects global tech partnerships and investment strategies.

Suez Canal Security and Trade Disruptions

Despite partial recovery, Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic remains volatile due to ongoing regional security threats, especially Houthi attacks. This unpredictability disrupts global supply chains, increases insurance costs, and threatens Egypt’s vital foreign currency revenues.

Federal Reserve Policy and Political Pressure

The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts at 3.6%, balancing persistent inflation (2.8%) and labor market stagnation. Political pressure from President Trump to lower rates and ongoing investigations into Fed leadership have raised concerns about central bank independence. Market expectations for further cuts in 2026 are muted, with Fed credibility and leadership transitions under intense scrutiny—factors that directly impact capital flows, currency valuation, and investment strategies.

European Strategic Autonomy Push

France is leading calls for greater European strategic autonomy in trade, defense, and technology, especially in response to US economic coercion and global instability. This shift impacts investment strategies, regulatory risk, and the future of transatlantic business cooperation.

Critical Minerals Strategy and Supply Chain Security

Australia is rapidly expanding its critical minerals sector, prioritizing rare earths, gallium, and scandium. Strategic reserves and Western partnerships aim to reduce dependence on China, shaping investment, supply chain resilience, and global competitiveness in clean energy and technology.

Suez Canal Disruptions Impact Trade

The Gaza conflict caused Egypt to lose $9 billion in Suez Canal revenue over two years, disrupting global shipping and supply chains. Recovery is underway, but ongoing regional instability remains a risk for trade flows and foreign exchange earnings.

Enerji arzı ve yerli üretim

TPAO’nun Chevron ile olası petrol-doğalgaz işbirliği ve Karadeniz gazı üretim artışı hedefleri enerji arz güvenliğini destekliyor. Orta vadede ithalat faturasını azaltma potansiyeli var; ancak proje takvimi, finansman ve jeopolitik riskler enerji maliyetlerinde dalgalanma yaratabilir.

Massive Public Investment Program 2026

Turkey’s 2026 Investment Program allocates 1.92 trillion TRY to 13,887 projects, prioritizing infrastructure, earthquake resilience, energy, and logistics. This large-scale public spending aims to boost economic growth and supply chain capacity, but also tests fiscal discipline.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

Labor Market Saudization Intensifies

The government has raised Saudization rates to 60% in key private sector roles, including marketing and sales, and restricted senior positions to nationals. These measures impact expatriate hiring, increase compliance costs, and require strategic workforce adjustments for international businesses.

Energy Sector Reform and Security Challenges

Brazil’s 2025 energy regulatory reform modernized the sector, focusing on renewables, grid expansion, and tariff moderation. Yet, unresolved issues around natural gas, transmission bottlenecks, and blackout risks persist, impacting industrial competitiveness and energy-intensive investment decisions.

Semiconductor Industry Policy Overhaul

South Korea passed a landmark law to strengthen its semiconductor sector, establishing a presidential commission and special funding. The law aims to secure technological leadership in AI chips, centralize support, and incentivize regional development, directly impacting global tech supply chains and investment flows.

Labour shortages, managed immigration

Severe labour scarcity is pushing wider use of foreign-worker schemes, but with tighter caps and complex visa categories. Proposed limits (e.g., 1.23 million through FY2028) could constrain logistics, construction and services, lifting wages and automation investment while complicating staffing for multinationals.

Minerais críticos e competição geopolítica

EUA e UE intensificam acordos para grafite, níquel, nióbio e terras raras; a Serra Verde recebeu financiamento dos EUA de US$ 565 milhões. Oportunidades em mineração e refino convivem com exigências ESG, licenciamento e risco de dependência de compradores.

Tariff Policy Uncertainty and Inflation

Recent tariff hikes—averaging 18% and affecting a broad range of imports—have raised inflation by 1.3% and cost US households up to $2,100 annually. Legal challenges and pending Supreme Court decisions add uncertainty, complicating business planning and investment strategies.

Dependência de China em commodities

A China ampliou compras de soja brasileira por vantagem de preço e incertezas tarifárias EUA–China. Essa concentração sustenta exportações, mas aumenta exposição a mudanças regulatórias chinesas, logística portuária e eventos climáticos, afetando contratos de longo prazo.

Regulatory and Policy Shifts for Business

Japan is implementing regulatory reforms to attract foreign investment and enhance business resilience. Policy changes in economic security, industrial strategy, and trade are designed to support supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and long-term competitiveness for international firms.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Policy Delays

Delays in enacting trade and investment agreements, as seen in the US-Korea deal, highlight persistent regulatory uncertainty. Such unpredictability undermines business confidence, complicates compliance, and can trigger retaliatory measures affecting multinational operations.

Investment Deterrence and Capital Flight

The combination of sanctions, tariffs, and domestic instability has triggered capital flight and deterred new foreign investment. Regulatory uncertainty, payment blockages, and the risk of asset expropriation have made Iran an increasingly unattractive destination for international investors.

Internal Unrest and Political Crackdown

Mass protests over economic hardship and government repression have resulted in thousands of deaths and ongoing internet blackouts. Political instability and human rights concerns heighten unpredictability for foreign investors and may trigger further international punitive measures.

Industrial decarbonisation via CCUS

The UK is moving carbon capture from planning to build-out: five major CCUS projects reached financial close, with over 100 projects in development and potential 100+ MtCO₂ storage capacity annually by mid‑2030s. Policy clarity and funding pace will shape investment, costs, and competitiveness for heavy industry.