Energy Security and Diversification Strategy

Turkey’s energy policy emphasizes diversification, with LNG imports from the US and multiple pipeline sources. This reduces vulnerability to Russian supply shocks and positions Turkey as a critical energy transit hub, affecting investment strategies in energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing.

US-Taiwan Strategic Technology Partnership

A historic US-Taiwan agreement will see at least $250 billion in Taiwanese investment in US chip manufacturing, with reciprocal tariff reductions. The deal aims to enhance supply chain resilience, secure advanced manufacturing, and deepen bilateral technology cooperation amid geopolitical tensions.

Shadow Trade and Sanctions Evasion

Russia increasingly relies on clandestine shipping, transshipment, and non-transparent trade routes to circumvent sanctions. These practices heighten compliance risks for international businesses and complicate due diligence, raising the risk profile of Russian-linked supply chains.

Supply Chain Realignment and Diversification

Geopolitical fragmentation and Brexit have forced UK businesses to reassess supply chains, with increased complexity and a push for diversification away from high-dependency markets like the US and China. Strategic adaptation is required to maintain resilience and access to key inputs and markets.

Aggressive Land Reclamation and Regulatory Risk

The government’s plan to reclaim 4–5 million hectares from plantation and mining firms heightens regulatory and asset security risks. This campaign impacts palm oil, forestry, and mining, raising concerns about policy stability, compliance costs, and foreign investor confidence.

Critical Minerals Strategy Reshapes Trade

Australia’s $1.2 billion critical minerals reserve, focused on antimony, gallium, and rare earths, aims to reduce reliance on China and stabilize supply chains. This initiative underpins new trade agreements, attracts investment, and enhances Australia’s role in global technology and defense supply networks.

Coal Phase-Out Delays and Grid Reliability

The planned closure of major coal power stations, such as Eraring, has been delayed to 2029 to support grid reliability during the energy transition. This extension reflects market uncertainties and underscores the challenges of balancing decarbonization goals with energy security for business operations.

Shifting Supply Chains Post-Tariffs

U.S.-China trade contraction in 2025 drove a 28% increase in U.S. imports from Thailand, making it a key beneficiary of global sourcing shifts. However, future legal changes and trade deals could reverse these gains, impacting Thailand’s export-led growth.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with annual CPI at 2.7%. Political interference and delayed data due to government shutdowns complicate monetary policy, increasing uncertainty for investment, borrowing costs, and currency stability.

Economic Reform and Investment Momentum

Recent reforms, improved energy reliability, and enhanced infrastructure have strengthened South Africa’s economic outlook. The country has exited the FATF grey list and received a credit rating upgrade, attracting renewed interest from global investors and supporting capital inflows.

Labor Market Weakens Amid Stagnation

Unemployment rose to 6.2% in December 2025, the highest since 2010, with nearly 2.91 million unemployed. The labor market faces demographic pressures, a persistent skills gap, and weak demand, impacting both domestic consumption and the attractiveness of Germany for international investors.

Vision 2030 Megaprojects and Real Estate

Massive Vision 2030 projects like NEOM and the Red Sea Project are transforming Saudi Arabia’s real estate market, projected to reach $137.8 billion by 2034. New laws allowing foreign property ownership and AI-driven innovations are accelerating FDI, urbanization, and infrastructure development, reshaping business opportunities.

US Tariffs and Trade Tensions

The imposition of US tariffs, particularly on automotive and manufactured goods, is straining South Africa’s export sectors. These measures threaten jobs, especially in manufacturing, and create uncertainty for investors reliant on US market access, complicating trade and investment strategies.

Energy Transition and Infrastructure Investment

Brazil is investing in energy transition projects, including renewable fuels and electric mobility, supported by public-private partnerships. These initiatives enhance supply chain resilience and sustainability, but execution risks and regulatory uncertainty remain.

Domestic Infrastructure and Talent Pressures

Relocation of manufacturing and increased overseas investment may strain Taiwan’s domestic infrastructure and talent pool, potentially impacting innovation capacity and competitiveness at home, while intensifying the need for workforce development and policy adaptation.

Communications Blackouts and Information Risks

Iran has imposed nationwide internet and phone shutdowns, severely restricting information flow. These blackouts hinder business continuity, disrupt logistics, and complicate due diligence, heightening operational uncertainty for all international stakeholders.

Cautious Federal Reserve Policy Outlook

The Federal Reserve, after cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2025, is expected to pause further easing in early 2026 due to persistent inflation and labor market weakness. This cautious stance affects global capital flows, borrowing costs, and currency markets, influencing international investment strategies.

Environmental and ESG Regulatory Shifts

Brazil’s 2025 General Environmental Licensing Law streamlines project approvals, while the EU-Mercosur deal ties market access to Paris Agreement compliance and anti-deforestation measures. These evolving ESG standards will affect investment decisions, supply chains, and compliance costs for international businesses.

Property Sector and Domestic Demand Weakness

Despite robust export performance, China’s domestic economy faces persistent headwinds from a prolonged property slump, weak consumer demand, and local government debt. This structural imbalance may limit growth and affect sectors reliant on domestic sales, with implications for both local and foreign businesses.

Diversification of Trade Partnerships

China has offset losses from US and EU tariffs by expanding exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. In 2025, exports to Africa rose 26.5% and to ASEAN by 13.4%, strengthening China’s position in emerging markets and reducing reliance on Western economies.

Shifting International Investment Strategies

Due to domestic uncertainty, 56% of French business leaders now prioritize international expansion, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia. This trend reflects efforts to mitigate local risks, diversify revenue, and secure talent, but may slow France’s domestic reindustrialization agenda.

Agribusiness Drives Export Growth

Agribusiness accounted for 22% of Brazil’s exports in 2025, with coffee, soy, corn, and meat leading. The sector grew 7.1%, but faces volatility from global commodity prices, sanitary barriers, and sustainability demands, especially in EU and Asian markets.

Stricter Migration and Student Visa Policies

Australia has moved India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan to the highest-risk category for student visas, increasing scrutiny and documentation requirements. This policy shift affects international education revenues, skilled migration pipelines, and labor market flexibility, especially in sectors reliant on foreign talent.

Resilient US Economic Growth Amid Global Shocks

Despite trade barriers and geopolitical uncertainty, the US economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth above 4% in late 2025. This underpins global demand, supports the dollar, and attracts foreign investment, but also raises questions about sustainability and sectoral disparities.

Political Risk and 2026 Election Uncertainty

Brazil’s presidential election in October 2026 is a major source of uncertainty for investors. Market sentiment is sensitive to potential shifts in economic policy, fiscal reforms, and institutional stability, with volatility expected in currency and asset prices as the election approaches.

Mining and Industrial Diversification Push

Strategic partnerships and investments are transforming Saudi Arabia into a regional mining and industrial hub. New aluminum complexes and mining service giants are being established, supporting Vision 2030’s goal to reduce oil dependency and localize high-value supply chains, with substantial workforce development initiatives.

Political and Regional Security Instability

Ongoing political uncertainty and regional security risks, particularly regarding Afghanistan and Kashmir, affect investor confidence. Pakistan and China are urging verifiable action against terrorism in Afghanistan, while regional disputes continue to pose operational and reputational risks.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Amid Inflation

Rising living costs and a weak yen have made inflation a top public concern. Competing fiscal proposals—including temporary food tax cuts and expanded stimulus—are fueling bond market volatility and raising questions about Japan’s long-term fiscal sustainability.

Geopolitical Tensions and Security Risks

China’s persistent claims over Taiwan and frequent military exercises in the Taiwan Strait heighten regional instability. Any escalation could disrupt global electronics, automotive, and defense supply chains, making Taiwan a critical flashpoint for international business risk.

Double-Digit Growth Ambitions and Risks

Vietnam targets over 10% annual GDP growth for 2026–2030, emphasizing industrial upgrading, high-tech sectors, and private sector expansion. These ambitious targets attract investment but heighten pressure on infrastructure, regulatory efficiency, and macroeconomic management.

Agricultural Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Railway grain shipments fell 27.3% in 2025, and wheat exports dropped 25% in December due to Russian strikes on ports and logistics. These disruptions, along with delayed harvests and market competition, threaten Ukraine’s role as a global food supplier and heighten risks for agribusiness investors.

Regional Geopolitical Tensions and Iran’s Role

Iran’s support for Hamas and other non-state actors continues to threaten Israel’s security and regional normalization efforts. The risk of escalation with Iran or its proxies remains high, impacting energy infrastructure, cross-border trade, and investor sentiment.

Supply Chain Resilience Initiatives Grow

US policy is driving supply chain regionalization and risk management, with emphasis on domestic sourcing and infrastructure investment. This trend increases costs but enhances resilience against geopolitical disruptions and trade turmoil.

Export Growth and Trade Diplomacy

Turkey targets over $410 billion in exports for 2026, with record growth in goods and services. The government emphasizes trade diplomacy, especially with the EU, and aims to increase its share in global trade beyond 1.07%, supporting manufacturing and supply chain resilience.

Global Competition for Critical Minerals

Australia is central to G7-led efforts to diversify global critical minerals supply chains, countering China’s dominance. International collaboration and investment in Australian mining and processing are accelerating, with implications for technology, defense, and clean energy industries worldwide.

Persistent National Security and Human Rights Concerns

Despite renewed economic engagement with China, Canada faces ongoing challenges around foreign interference, technology transfer, and human rights. These issues influence investment screening, regulatory compliance, and reputational risk for international firms in sensitive sectors.