PIF strategy reset and PPPs

The Public Investment Fund is revising its 2026–2030 strategy and Saudi launched a privatization push targeting 220+ PPP contracts by 2030 and ~$64bn capex. Creates bankable infrastructure deals, but raises tender competitiveness, localization requirements, and governance diligence needs.

Defence spending surge reshapes supply

Budget passage unlocks a major defense ramp: +€6.7bn in 2026 (to ~€57bn), funding submarines, armored vehicles and missiles. This boosts demand for aerospace, electronics and metals, but may crowd out civilian spending and tighten skilled-labor availability.

Reforma laboral: semana de 40 horas

Avanza la reforma constitucional para reducir la jornada a 40 horas (implementación gradual 2026‑2030), sin bajar salarios y con cambios en horas extra y registro electrónico. Implica presión de costos, rediseño de turnos y productividad en manufactura, logística y servicios.

Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

Déficits persistentes e exceções ao arcabouço fiscal elevam o prêmio de risco. A dívida federal chegou a R$ 8,64 tri em 2025 (+18%), com projeções de até R$ 10,3 tri em 2026, pressionando câmbio, juros e custo de capital.

Financial system tightening and liquidity

Banking reforms—phasing out credit quotas and moving toward Basel III—may reprice credit and widen gaps between strong and weak lenders. With credit-to-GDP above 140% and periodic liquidity spikes, corporates may face higher working-capital costs and tougher project financing.

Energy security and LNG procurement

Taiwan’s import-dependent power system and plans to increase LNG purchases, including from the US, heighten focus on fuel-price volatility and shipping risk. Industrial users should expect continued sensitivity to outages, grid upgrades, and policy shifts affecting electricity costs.

Energy diversification and LNG buildout

Turkey is expanding LNG and regasification capacity, planning additional FSRU projects and targeting ~200 million m³/day intake within two years. Long-term LNG contracting (including U.S.-sourced volumes) can improve supply security, but price volatility and infrastructure bottlenecks remain.

Deposit flight and confidence shocks

Regional banks remain exposed to rapid deposit migration toward money funds and large banks during stress. Even isolated failures can trigger precautionary cash moves by corporates, disrupting payroll liquidity, trade settlement cycles, and working-capital availability for importers/exporters.

Defence build-up drives local content

Defence spending is forecast to rise from about US$42.9bn (2025) to US$56.2bn (2030), with acquisitions growing fast. AUKUS-linked procurement, shipbuilding and R&D will expand opportunities, but also stricter security vetting, ITAR-like controls, and supply-chain localization pressures.

Shadow fleet disruption and seizures

Western maritime posture is shifting from monitoring to interdiction: boarding, detentions, and potential seizures of falsely flagged tankers are rising. Russia is reflagging vessels to regain protection, but insurers, shipowners, and charterers face higher legal, safety, and reputational risks on Russia-linked routes.

Energia, capacidade e risco climático

A Aneel aprovou leilões de reserva de capacidade em março, com preço-teto de até R$ 1,6 milhão/MW-ano e 368 projetos cadastrados. O mix renovável exige reforço de potência firme e transmissão; eventos climáticos aumentam riscos de custo e continuidade operacional.

Labour constraints and mobilisation effects

Ongoing mobilisation and wartime displacement tighten labour supply and raise wage and retention pressures, especially in construction, logistics, and manufacturing. Companies should plan for training pipelines, cross-border staffing, and continuity arrangements to manage productivity and safety risks.

Санкции и вторичные риски

20-й пакет ЕС расширяет санкции: полный запрет морских услуг для российской нефти, +43 судна «теневого флота» (640), ограничения на банки и криптоплатформы, новые импорт/экспорт‑запреты. Растут риски вторичных санкций и комплаенса для глобальных цепочек поставок.

Inflation resurgence and rate volatility

Core inflation has re-accelerated (trimmed mean 0.9% q/q; 3.4% y/y), lifting expectations of near-term RBA tightening. Higher and more volatile borrowing costs raise hurdle rates, pressure consumer demand, and change hedging, funding, and FX assumptions for cross-border investors.

Compétition chinoise et protectionnisme

Un rapport officiel alerte sur la pression chinoise sur les industries clés; options évoquées: protection équivalente à 30% de droits ou ajustement de change. Impacts: risques de mesures commerciales UE, réorientation sourcing, clauses de contenu local et stratégie prix.

Auto sector reshoring and EV policy shift

Ottawa’s new auto strategy responds to U.S. auto tariffs and competitive Chinese EV inflows by combining tariff credits, renewed EV incentives and stricter emissions standards while scrapping the prior sales mandate. Impacts include location decisions, supplier localization, and model allocation.

Policy execution and compliance environment

India continues “trust-based” tax and customs process reforms, including integrated systems and reduced litigation measures, while maintaining tighter enforcement in strategic sectors. Multinationals should expect improved digitalized compliance but uneven on-ground implementation across states and agencies.

Acordo UE–Mercosul e ratificação

O acordo foi assinado, mas o Parlamento Europeu pode atrasar a entrada em vigor em até dois anos por revisão jurídica. Para empresas, abre perspectiva de redução tarifária e regras mais previsíveis, porém com incerteza regulatória e salvaguardas ambientais.

Domestic unrest and security crackdown

Large-scale protests and lethal repression are elevating operational and reputational risk for foreign-linked firms. Risks include curfews, disrupted labor availability, arbitrary enforcement, asset seizures, and heightened human-rights due diligence expectations from investors, banks, and regulators.

India–US trade pact reset

A new interim India–US trade framework cuts U.S. tariffs to ~18% on many Indian exports while India reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers for U.S. goods. Companies should reassess rules-of-origin, pricing, market access, and compliance timelines.

Defense buildup, industrial mobilisation

Japan’s rapid defense expansion toward 2% of GDP is driving procurement, re-shoring of sensitive manufacturing, and looser defense-export rules. This increases opportunities in aerospace, cyber, shipbuilding and munitions supply chains, but raises compliance, security vetting and capacity-allocation pressures.

Immigration and skilled-visa uncertainty

U.S. immigration policy uncertainty is rising, affecting global talent mobility and services delivery. A bill was introduced to end the H‑1B program, while enhanced visa screening is delaying interviews abroad. Companies reliant on cross‑border teams should plan for longer lead times and potential labor cost increases.

China trade frictions resurface

Australia’s anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel (10% plus earlier 35–113% duties) raise retaliation risks across iron ore, beef and education services. Firms should stress-test China exposure, diversify markets and monitor WTO disputes and safeguard-style measures.

Data security and cross-border flows

China’s data-security regime continues tightening around cross-border transfers, localization, and security assessments for “important data.” Multinationals face higher compliance costs, audit exposure, and potential disruption to global IT architectures, analytics, HR systems, and cloud-based operations.

Digital regulation and data-sovereignty disputes

US concerns over platform fairness rules, network usage fees, and restrictions on exporting high-precision map data (Google) are resurfacing in trade talks. Tighter privacy enforcement after major breaches raises liability, audit, and cross-border data-transfer costs for tech-enabled firms.

Wage growth versus inflation

Spring ‘shunto’ negotiations aim to sustain at least 5% wage hikes for a third year, after two years above 5%, to restore falling real wages. Outcomes will influence domestic demand, retail pricing, service-sector margins, and labor cost assumptions for multinationals operating in Japan.

Large infrastructure pipeline execution

Sheinbaum’s 2026–2030 plan targets roughly MXN 5.6–5.9 trillion (about $323B) across 1,500 projects, heavily weighted to energy, rail and roads, plus ports. If delivered, it improves logistics; execution, funding structure and procurement transparency remain key risks.

Optics and photonics supply expansion

Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.

Dezenflasyon ve lira oynaklığı

Ocak 2026 enflasyonu yıllık %30,65, aylık %4,84; konut %45,36 artışta. Dezenflasyon sürse de kur ve fiyat oynaklığı ücret, kira, girdi maliyetleri ve fiyatlama stratejilerinde belirsizlik yaratıyor; stok, kontrat ve hedge ihtiyacını artırıyor.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

Wettlauf Wärmepumpe gegen Fernwärme

Industrie und Versorger konkurrieren um Haushalte: Wärmepumpen-Installationskapazitäten versus Fernwärmeanschluss. Das führt zu volatilem Auftragseingang, Preisdruck und Engpässen bei Handwerk/Planung. Internationale Zulieferer müssen Kapazitäten flexibel steuern und lokale Partnernetze stärken.

Juros altos e virada monetária

A Selic foi mantida em 15% e o BC sinaliza cortes a partir de março, condicionados a inflação e credibilidade fiscal. Volatilidade eleitoral e pass-through cambial podem atrasar a flexibilização, afetando financiamento, consumo e valuation de ativos.

Orta Koridor lojistik fırsatı

Trans-Hazar Orta Koridoru, Çin‑Avrupa transit süresini deniz yolundaki 35–50 günden 18–25 güne düşürebiliyor. Türkiye’nin demiryolu/liman bağlantıları, depolama ve gümrük verimliliği yatırımları önem kazanıyor; kapasite darboğazı ve sınır geçiş gecikmeleri operasyonel risk.

Nearshoring con cuellos de energía

El nearshoring sigue fuerte por proximidad a EE.UU., pero la expansión industrial choca con límites de red eléctrica, permisos y capacidad de generación. La incertidumbre regulatoria y costos de conexión retrasan proyectos, elevan CAPEX y favorecen ubicaciones con infraestructura disponible.

DHS funding instability and disruptions

Recurring DHS funding standoffs and partial shutdowns threaten operational continuity for TSA, FEMA reimbursements, Coast Guard readiness, and CISA cybersecurity deployments, while ICE enforcement remains funded. Businesses should anticipate travel friction, disaster-recovery payment delays, and security-service gaps.

Semiconductor mission and tech supply chains

India is accelerating its semiconductor roadmap (multiple approved units, focus on OSAT and ecosystem build-out). This expands opportunities in equipment, materials, design, and datacenter hardware, but timelines, infrastructure reliability, and export-control alignment remain key risks.