Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 02, 2025
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to rage on, with Putin launching a New Year's Day drone attack on Kyiv, North Korean troops joining the fight, and Western countries lifting their ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia. Meanwhile, Israel is wary of deepening ties between Russia and Iran, which could involve a nuclear program. In Montenegro, several people were killed in a shooting after a bar brawl, and the shooter is still on the run. Thailand's aviation sector is expected to improve in 2025, but the country will need to manage its power supply as the data centre industry grows.
Russia-Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine war has been internationalised, with North Korean troops joining the fight and Western countries lifting their ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia. Russia has been receiving military assistance from Iran and North Korea, while Ukraine has been receiving financial and military assistance from the US, NATO, and the EU. Ukraine has ended a five-year deal that allowed Russian gas to flow to EU states through its pipeline networks, significantly reducing Russian gas imports to the EU. This move will cost Russia billions and impact countries like Moldova, which rely on Russian gas via Ukraine.
Israel-Russia-Iran Relations
Israel is wary of deepening ties between Russia and Iran, which could involve a nuclear program. Russia and Iran have been working together on a nuclear program, and Israel is concerned about the potential implications of this collaboration. Israel has been working to neutralise its enemies, and the deepening ties between Russia and Iran could pose a threat to Israel's security.
Montenegro Shooting
In Montenegro, several people were killed in a shooting after a bar brawl, and the shooter is still on the run. The shooter, identified only by his initials AM, fled the scene armed, and police have dispatched special troops to search for him. The shooting has caused concern among residents, and police have urged them to remain calm and stay indoors.
Thailand's Aviation Sector and Power Supply
Thailand's aviation sector is expected to improve in 2025, but the country will need to manage its power supply as the data centre industry grows. Thailand is seeing a significant increase in power demand as the government pushes the growth of data centres and the cloud service industry. The Board of Investment is supporting investment projects in data centres and cloud services, and Thailand is becoming a regional digital innovation hub. However, data centres are crucial infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and if AI-based tasks continue to grow in Thailand, a huge amount of electricity will be needed to keep the facilities running. One AI-embedded data centre requires between 300 and 1,000 megawatts of electricity, and Thailand will need to find a way to meet this demand while reducing its carbon footprint and ensuring a stable supply.
Further Reading:
Breaking News: Several killed as man opens fire in Montenegro bar - Telangana Today
Consulting the oracles - Bangkok Post
How the wars of 2024 brought together rivals and created enemies - BBC.com
Israel wary as Russia-Iran ties deepen, possibly involving nuclear program - Al-Monitor
Ukraine ends Russian gas pipeline to Europe – but how much will it cost Moscow? - The Independent
Themes around the World:
Nuclear Energy and Uranium Market Growth
As nuclear power regains prominence globally, Canada, the world’s second-largest uranium producer, stands to benefit significantly. Renewed government support for nuclear reactors and investments by major tech firms in AI data centers drive demand for uranium, positioning Canadian miners like Cameco as key suppliers in Western markets, enhancing export opportunities and energy sector growth.
Regulatory Compliance Challenges
Aligning with CPTPP standards presents challenges for Uruguayan businesses, especially SMEs, which may face increased compliance costs and administrative burdens. Support mechanisms and capacity building are essential to mitigate these risks.
Trade Agreements and Integration
Vietnam's active participation in multiple free trade agreements (FTAs), including CPTPP and RCEP, facilitates tariff reductions and market access. These agreements enhance Vietnam's competitiveness, encouraging foreign direct investment and expanding export opportunities.
US-Thailand Trade Negotiations Stability
Despite political uncertainties and potential parliamentary dissolution, Thailand's government affirms that trade negotiations with the US and economic agendas will proceed uninterrupted. The caretaker government is expected to maintain momentum on key policies, including free-trade agreements and bilateral deals, ensuring continuity in Thailand's efforts to enhance competitiveness and expand market access amid geopolitical challenges.
India's Economic Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty
India demonstrates robust economic resilience in 2025 despite global policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and slowing growth in advanced economies. Supported by strong domestic demand, prudent monetary policy, and strategic trade diversification, India maintains steady industrial production and low inflation, positioning itself as a fast-growing major economy attractive for investment and trade.
Currency Volatility and Financial Instability
Fluctuations in the Russian ruble, driven by sanctions and economic uncertainty, increase financial risks for investors and businesses operating in Russia. Currency instability complicates financial planning, cross-border transactions, and repatriation of profits, necessitating robust risk management strategies.
Tech Sector Valuation and Risks
US technology stocks, heavily concentrated in indices, experienced significant declines amid investor skepticism about AI trade sustainability and capital investment profitability. High-profile firms like Tesla face valuation pressures despite ambitious growth targets. This volatility affects market confidence, investment strategies, and the broader tech-driven economic outlook.
US-Thailand Trade Negotiations Amid Border Disputes
Ongoing border conflicts with Cambodia risk derailing critical US-Thailand trade talks, as the US pressures Thailand to recommit to ceasefire agreements. The dispute threatens to stall trade negotiations, impacting Thailand's largest export market and creating geopolitical risks that could undermine economic stability and investor sentiment.
Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership with Saudi Arabia
Egyptian businesses prioritize expanding trade and investment with Saudi Arabia, driven by Saudi Vision 2030's economic diversification. Nearly 90% of Egyptian firms plan significant growth in bilateral trade, focusing on technology and renewable energy sectors. Enhanced legal frameworks and investment agreements facilitate this partnership, presenting substantial opportunities for cross-border collaboration and regional economic integration.
Economic Contraction and Trade Impact
Japan's economy contracted 1.8% annualized in Q3 2025, driven by declining exports amid rising U.S. tariffs and sluggish domestic demand. The contraction signals vulnerabilities in Japan's export-oriented economy, especially in the automotive sector, and raises concerns about prolonged recession risks, affecting global supply chains and investment strategies linked to Japan.
Taiwan's Semiconductor Dominance
Taiwan controls over 60% of global semiconductor wafer fabrication capacity, producing 90% of the most advanced chips essential for AI, electric vehicles, and defense. This dominance underpins the global tech ecosystem but also creates supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical risks, especially amid US-China tensions and Taiwan's strategic importance in AI hardware production.
Infrastructure Development and Investment
Ongoing infrastructure projects, including transport and digital networks, aim to enhance connectivity and economic resilience. These developments are critical for improving supply chain efficiency and attracting long-term investments.
Environmental Policies and Sustainability
Stringent environmental regulations and commitments to sustainability affect operational costs and investment decisions. Businesses must adapt to carbon pricing and green standards, impacting sectors like energy, manufacturing, and transportation.
Geopolitical Risks and Military Tensions
Escalating military pressure from China and Taiwan's strategic importance raise the risk of conflict, which could disrupt global supply chains and cause catastrophic economic fallout, potentially wiping out up to 10% of global GDP. This uncertainty affects investor confidence and necessitates contingency planning in global operations.
Technological Innovation and Export Controls
Advancements in AI, semiconductors, and 5G technologies are central to US economic competitiveness. However, export controls on critical technologies to China and other nations reshape global tech supply chains and investment flows, influencing international partnerships and market access.
Policy Uncertainty and Economic Confidence
The UK's economic growth is hindered by policy drift and unclear government strategies, leading to weakened business investment and consumer confidence. This uncertainty creates a self-reinforcing drag on economic activity, with firms delaying investments and scaling back expansion, impacting international trade and investment strategies.
Nuclear Program Developments
Iran's nuclear activities remain a focal point of geopolitical tension, influencing international diplomatic relations and economic sanctions. Escalations or negotiations around the nuclear deal directly affect investor confidence and the feasibility of engaging in long-term projects within Iran.
Bond Market Recovery and Sovereign Rating Upgrades
Pakistan's dollar bonds have delivered a 24.5% return in 2025, the highest in Asia, supported by sovereign rating upgrades from S&P and Fitch and plans to re-enter Eurobond markets in 2026. These developments signal improving fiscal discipline and reform momentum, enhancing market access and investor confidence despite regional geopolitical risks.
US-China Economic Tensions Impact
Australia is increasingly exposed to economic disruptions from US-China rivalry, including trade wars and geopolitical tensions over Taiwan. These dynamics threaten Australia's trade and investment environment, requiring strategic economic resilience and diversification to mitigate risks from shifting global power balances and potential financial crises linked to US debt and currency instability.
Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
German policymakers and businesses grapple with the geopolitical risks of overreliance on China, especially amid export controls on rare earths and semiconductors. Supply chain disruptions threaten production continuity in key sectors like automotive and green technology. The government’s cautious 'de-risking' approach faces resistance from firms prioritizing market access, highlighting tensions between economic interests and national security concerns.
Capital Market Expansion and Financial Reforms
Iran's capital market has grown by approximately 20% recently, reflecting renewed investor confidence post-regional conflicts. Efforts to deepen market liquidity, accelerate IPOs, and channel household savings into productive sectors aim to strengthen financial infrastructure and support economic resilience.
Labor Market Dynamics and Skill Development
India's large labor force offers a competitive advantage, but challenges remain in skill development and labor regulations. Efforts to enhance vocational training and labor law reforms aim to improve workforce productivity, which is crucial for sectors like manufacturing and IT services that drive export growth and attract foreign investment.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends
Investor confidence in Ukraine fluctuates amid political instability and security concerns. While some sectors attract strategic investments, overall FDI inflows are constrained, influencing long-term economic growth prospects and the viability of large-scale infrastructure and industrial projects.
Public Sentiment on Foreign Influence and Defense
Australian public opinion reflects increased wariness of US interference alongside cautious views on China, influencing geopolitical alignments. Support for enhanced defense spending and strategic partnerships, including AUKUS, is rising amid regional tensions, impacting national security policies and foreign investment considerations.
Delisting of Major Firms from Stock Exchange
A trend of major firms delisting from the Pakistan Stock Exchange reflects structural issues such as removal of tax incentives, tightly held ownership limiting public float, and regulatory burdens. This erosion of market depth undermines price discovery and competitive pressures, complicating capital market development and investor participation.
Energy Sector Inefficiencies and Tariff Pressures
Rising electricity tariffs and gas shortages, driven by capacity payments, fuel price adjustments, and IMF-mandated reforms, increase costs for households and industries. These pressures constrain industrial expansion, elevate production costs, and reduce competitiveness, posing a significant barrier to economic growth and investment attraction.
Public Perception of US Influence
Australian public opinion shows increased concern over US interference, reflecting a nuanced view of alliance dynamics amid geopolitical tensions. This shift influences political and economic policy considerations, including defense spending and foreign investment controls, affecting Australia's strategic positioning and trade relationships in a complex international environment.
Rupiah Redenomination Risks and Opportunities
Indonesia's plan to redenominate the Rupiah aims to simplify accounting and enhance digital payment efficiency. While theoretically neutral, implementation risks include short-term price volatility due to rounding and expectation effects, especially in informal cash-heavy sectors. Effective governance, clear rules, and communication are critical to mitigate inflationary pressures and maintain purchasing power.
Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict Impact
Renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border threaten economic stability, risking a 130 billion baht loss in exports and disrupting labor supply with up to 500,000 Cambodian workers previously employed in Thailand. Tourism and border trade suffer, potentially reducing GDP by 100 billion baht. However, ongoing US-Thailand trade negotiations remain unaffected, underscoring resilience in bilateral economic ties.
Rare Earths as Geopolitical Leverage
China's control over rare earth element exports remains a critical bargaining chip amid US-China trade negotiations. Recent export declines and ongoing talks highlight the strategic importance of these materials for defense, renewable energy, and high-tech manufacturing. Disruptions or restrictions could significantly impact global supply chains and cost structures for key industries.
Impact of China’s Travel Advisories
China's travel warnings against visiting Japan have caused significant declines in Japan's tourism and retail sectors, with major companies experiencing stock drops. Given China's large share of inbound tourists, this advisory risks substantial revenue losses and disrupts Japan's tourism recovery, affecting airlines, hotels, and retail businesses heavily reliant on Chinese visitors.
European and US Support Dynamics
Western countries, notably Germany and the US, continue providing military and financial aid to Ukraine, though public and political support faces challenges amid war fatigue and domestic pressures. Funding debates, military assistance levels, and diplomatic coordination shape Ukraine's defense capabilities and economic resilience.
Supply Chain Resilience Initiatives
Post-pandemic, Canada is investing in supply chain diversification and resilience, focusing on reducing dependency on single sources. This strategy aims to mitigate disruptions, ensuring continuity in manufacturing and trade operations.
Regulatory Divergence from EU Standards
The UK’s gradual regulatory divergence from EU norms creates both opportunities and barriers for international trade. While it allows tailored domestic policies, it also complicates market access and compliance for exporters and importers.
German Economic Outlook and Recovery Prospects
The Bundesbank forecasts a modest economic rebound in late 2025, with stabilization in exports and industry after tariff-induced volatility. However, Germany's competitiveness remains weak, limiting benefits from global growth. Private consumption is subdued, and wage growth is slowing, indicating a fragile recovery environment with structural challenges persisting.
Regional Geopolitical Instability
Iran's involvement in regional conflicts and proxy engagements in the Middle East heightens political risk. This instability can disrupt trade routes, increase insurance costs for shipping, and deter foreign direct investment due to concerns over security and operational continuity.