Regulatory reset and supervisory tightening

US policymakers are reconsidering post-2023 oversight, including “tailored” rules for community banks and changes to examination practices. Regulatory uncertainty complicates strategic planning for foreign entrants, increases compliance variability across charters, and may accelerate risk-based repricing of credit.

Stricter competition and digital rules

The CMA’s assertive posture and the UK’s digital competition regime increase scrutiny of mergers, platform conduct and data-driven markets. International acquirers should expect longer timelines, expanded remedies, and higher litigation risk, particularly in tech, media, and consumer sectors.

Trade facilitation and digital licensing

Authorities aim to cut investment licensing from ~24 months to under 90 days via a unified digital platform, while reducing customs clearance from 16 days to five (target two) and moving ports to 7-day operations. Execution quality will determine actual savings.

Mobilization-driven labour and HR risk

Ongoing mobilization and enforcement practices tighten labour supply and raise HR compliance and reputational risks for employers. Firms face higher wage pressure, absenteeism, and operational continuity challenges, while needing robust documentation for exemptions/critical-worker status and strengthened duty-of-care in high-stress environments.

Transition and decarbonisation investment needs

Grid expansion plans imply roughly R400bn over 10 years and ~14,400km new lines to connect renewables, amid coal plant retirements around 2029–2030. Financing structure and JETP-linked funding conditions will shape ESG exposure, carbon costs, and industrial siting decisions.

Digital platform regulation intensifies

Germany’s cartel office fined Amazon about €59m and restricted marketplace pricing mechanisms; Amazon’s marketplace represents ~60% of its German sales. Tighter enforcement reshapes online pricing, seller margins, platform contracts and compliance for international e‑commerce firms.

Digital regulation and platform compliance risk

Proposed online-platform and network rules, plus high-profile cases involving major platforms, are viewed in Washington as discriminatory. Potential policy shifts could alter data governance, content delivery costs, and competition enforcement, influencing market entry strategy and compliance budgets for multinationals.

Power tariffs and circular debt

Energy-sector reform remains central to IMF conditionality. Tariff redesign and circular-debt containment can shift cost burdens between households and industry, affecting margins, plant uptime and pricing. Investors face policy risk around subsidies, DISCO recoveries, and contract enforcement in generation and distribution.

Stratégie énergétique PPE3

La PPE3 fixe une trajectoire 2025-2035: relance nucléaire (six EPR2, huit en option) et objectifs revus pour solaire/éolien, sur fond de demande électrique atone. Impacts: prix de l’électricité, contrats long terme, investissements industriels et disponibilité réseau.

Defense buildup reshapes industry

With defense spending reaching ~2% of GDP in FY2025 and election momentum for a more proactive posture, procurement, dual-use controls, and cyber/intelligence requirements are expanding. Opportunities rise for aerospace, electronics, and services, alongside higher regulatory scrutiny.

Won volatility and FX backstops

Authorities issued $3bn in FX stabilization bonds as reserves fell to about $425.9bn and equity outflows pressured KRW. Elevated USD/KRW volatility affects import costs, hedging budgets, and repatriation strategies, especially for commodity buyers and dollar-funded projects.

China tech listings and blacklists

The Pentagon’s 1260H “PLA-linked” list changes—briefly adding firms like Alibaba, BYD and Baidu—highlight fast-moving US-China tech restrictions. Even provisional designations can trigger investor pullback, procurement exclusions, and pre-sanctions derisking across capital markets and partnerships.

China de-risking and coercion exposure

Sino-Japanese tensions tied to Taiwan rhetoric have brought slower customs clearance, tighter controls and rare-earth licensing uncertainty. Firms face compliance and continuity risks in China-linked supply chains, accelerating diversification, inventory buffering and regional relocation decisions.

Sanctions Enforcement and Dual-Use Leakage

Sanctions compliance risk is rising as Ukraine alleges Russian drones source German Infineon transistors via third countries; 137 German components were identified in Russian weapons. Companies face heightened export-control scrutiny, end-use due diligence, and potential penalties for indirect re-exports.

Regional Security and Trade Corridors

Turkey’s role in the Black Sea and Middle East connectivity agenda is growing, but regional conflicts keep logistics and insurance risks high. Disruptions can hit maritime routes, trucking corridors and transit times, affecting just-in-time supply chains and prompting inventory and routing diversification.

Defense rearmament boosts demand

Germany is accelerating procurement, including a €536m first tranche of loitering munitions within a €4.3bn framework and NATO long-range drone initiatives. This supports select industrial orders and dual-use tech investment, but tightens export controls, compliance, and supply competition for components.

US–Taiwan chip reindustrialization

Washington is tying tariff relief to onshore capacity, including a reported $250bn Taiwan investment framework to expand US fabrication and supply chains. The policy accelerates localization and friend-shoring, but heightens execution risk, capex needs, and supplier relocation pressure.

Dollar hedging costs surge

Foreign investors are increasing USD hedge ratios, amplifying dollar swings even without mass Treasury selling. Higher FX-hedging costs reshape portfolio allocation, pricing of long-term supply contracts, and can reduce inward investment appetite while raising working-capital volatility for importers.

Logistics hub buildout surge

Saudi Arabia is accelerating the National Transport and Logistics Strategy via port upgrades, transshipment growth and new logistics zones. January throughput reached 738,111 TEUs (+2% YoY) with transshipment up 22%. This improves regional routing options but raises competition and compliance demands.

Local government debt tightening

Provincial reports signal stricter controls on “hidden” local debt, platform exits, and goals to clear stock by 2026, reinforcing Beijing’s ‘no new implicit debt’ stance. Expect slower infrastructure pipelines, tougher public procurement terms, and heightened scrutiny of SOE financing structures.

Labour shortages, migration recalibration

Mining, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing face persistent skills shortages; industry is pushing faster skilled-migration pathways while government tightens integrity and conditions in some visa streams. Project schedules, wage costs and compliance burdens are key variables for investors and EPC firms.

Saudization tightening in commercial roles

From April 19, 2026, private firms with three or more staff must localize 60% of specified sales and marketing jobs, with minimum Saudi salary thresholds (SAR 5,500). Separate restrictions reserve certain senior/procurement titles for Saudis, raising HR compliance, payroll costs and operating model adjustments.

Transbordo China y cumplimiento aduanero

EE.UU. acusa a México de servir como “staging area” para bienes chinos y posibles prácticas de evasión arancelaria. Aumentará escrutinio aduanero, auditorías de origen y medidas antidumping, elevando riesgo de detenciones en frontera, sanciones y mayores costos de compliance.

Water security and municipal failures

Urban and industrial water reliability is deteriorating amid aging infrastructure and governance gaps. Non-revenue water is about 47.4% (leaks ~40.8%); the rehabilitation backlog is estimated near R400bn versus a ~R26bn 2025/26 budget, disrupting production, hygiene, and workforce continuity.

Nuclear talks uncertainty and snapback

Muscat talks resumed but remain far apart on enrichment and scope, while sanctions continue alongside diplomacy. The risk of negotiation breakdown—or further UN/EU/U.S. “snapback” measures—creates unstable planning horizons for contracts, project finance, and long-cycle investments in Iran-linked trade.

Logistics hub push via ports

Mawani ports handled 8.32m TEUs in 2025 (+10.6% YoY) and 738k TEUs in January (+2.0%), with transshipment up 22.4%. Port upgrades (e.g., Jeddah) aim to capture rerouted Red Sea traffic and reduce landed-cost volatility.

Anti-corruption tightening and enforcement

A new Party resolution on preventing and controlling corruption and waste will tighten deterrence, expand supervision in high-risk sectors, and shift toward post-audit controls. For foreign firms, compliance expectations rise while permitting timelines may fluctuate during enforcement waves.

Tasas, inflación y costo financiero

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% ante choques por IEPS y aranceles a importaciones chinas; además elevó pronósticos de inflación (meta 3% se desplaza a 2027). Esto encarece financiamiento, altera valuaciones y afecta coberturas cambiarias y de tasas.

Shipping profitability amid freight slump

Korea’s flagship carrier HMM stayed profitable (13.4% operating margin) despite a 37% SCFI drop and route rate falls near 49% to the U.S. and Europe. Vessel oversupply and Red Sea security remain swing factors for lead times, surcharges, and contract rates.

Suez Canal security-driven volatility

Red Sea risks remain a first-order supply-chain variable. After a Gaza ceasefire, Suez revenues rose 24.5% and major carriers began returning with naval assistance. Any renewed attacks could again divert vessels around Africa, extending transit times and raising costs.

Nickel quotas tighten supply chains

Jakarta is cutting nickel ore production quotas (RKAB), including a steep reduction at Weda Bay Nickel, aiming to lift prices. Smelters may face ore shortages, raising import dependence (notably Philippines) and increasing volatility for EV-battery and stainless-steel supply chains.

Federal shutdown and budget disruption risk

Recurring funding lapses and DHS budget disputes can delay permits, procurement, rulemaking, and infrastructure programs. Contractors and regulated firms should plan for payment delays, staffing disruptions at agencies, and slowed approvals—particularly in security, immigration, and critical-infrastructure oversight.

Financial conditions and liquidity volatility

Interbank rates spiked before easing (overnight near 8.5% after 17–17.5%), highlighting liquidity sensitivity and potential pass-through to loan/deposit costs. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are also growing. Foreign investors should stress-test funding, hedging, and counterparty risk for Vietnam operations.

Immigration enforcement policy volatility

Intensified immigration enforcement and politically contested oversight proposals at DHS create uncertainty for labor availability and compliance, especially in logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Companies face higher HR/legal costs, potential workplace disruption, and relocation or automation pressures.

Cross-strait grey-zone shipping risk

China’s high-tempo drills and coast-guard presence increasingly resemble a “quarantine” playbook, designed to raise insurers’ war-risk premiums and disrupt port operations without open conflict. Any sustained escalation would threaten Taiwan Strait routings, energy imports, and just-in-time supply chains.

Platform takedowns for illegal promotions

FCA’s High Court action against HTX seeks UK blocking via Apple/Google app stores and social platforms, signalling tougher cross-border enforcement of financial promotions and raising distribution and marketing risk for offshore investing and crypto apps.