Stricter FDI screening and economic security

France is an active user of foreign investment controls under EU-wide economic security priorities, with faster approvals for most deals but deeper scrutiny for sensitive tech, energy, data and defence. Transaction timelines, remedies, and governance requirements can materially affect M&A execution.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement tightening

EU and Ukrainian sanctions broaden to banks, metals, chemicals, maritime services and shadow-fleet actors, while enforcement targets third-country facilitators. Businesses must strengthen screening, end-use controls and maritime due diligence to avoid secondary exposure and shipment delays.

Renewables buildout cost pressures

Offshore wind development continues but with sharply rising materials and construction costs; JERA’s 315 MW Akita project targets 2028 start-up. Higher capex and supply constraints may slow auctions, reshape PPA pricing, and affect localization plans for turbine supply chains.

Digital trade and data transfer rules

Kesepakatan transfer data lintas negara RI–AS dalam ART menegaskan aliran data dengan perlindungan UU PDP No.27/2022, larangan pemaksaan alih teknologi/kode sumber, serta komitmen moratorium bea transmisi elektronik. Ini mempengaruhi strategi cloud, penempatan data sensitif, audit kepatuhan, dan negosiasi vendor TI global.

Security risks in key corridors

Persistent militant and political-security risks—especially in Balochistan and along CPEC-linked routes—threaten personnel safety, project timelines, and cargo insurance. Heightened protection requirements can increase operating costs and complicate Chinese-linked and strategic infrastructure investments.

Technology choke points and import dependence

Russia’s import-substitution ambitions lag, with critical reliance on imported high-tech inputs and microchips increasingly sourced from China (reported around 90%). Export controls on dual-use items and advanced computing constrain modernization, heighten supply risk, and create single‑supplier dependency vulnerabilities.

EU–Australia FTA endgame

EU–Australia FTA talks are in a decisive phase, with remaining gaps on beef/lamb quotas and regulatory conditions; compromises on geographical indications and Australia’s luxury car tax are in play. A deal could reshape tariffs, compliance, and mobility for firms.

US–China tech controls tighten

Washington is hardening licensing and end‑use conditions for advanced AI chips (e.g., Nvidia H200), while China accelerates substitution. Expect volatile availability, compliance burden, grey‑market leakage, and shifting revenue exposure across cloud, AI, electronics and automation supply chains.

Supply-chain reallocation to Vietnam

US tariff-driven diversification continues shifting export orders and supplier footprints toward Vietnam, expanding opportunities in electronics, apparel and components. Companies should anticipate capacity tightening, supplier qualification bottlenecks and heightened origin scrutiny as Vietnam gains US import share.

Taiwan’s US investment guarantees expand

Taipei is backing outbound investment with government credit guarantees, potentially up to $250B, to support semiconductor and ICT supply-chain projects in the US. This lowers financing risk for firms expanding overseas, but may intensify domestic political scrutiny and execution constraints.

US–Indonesia reciprocal trade pact

The February 2026 ART deal expands market access but adds obligations: potential 19% US tariff framework, Indonesia’s $33bn five-year import commitments, investment/security screening, and alignment with US export controls. Firms face compliance complexity, geopolitical exposure, and policy-space constraints.

Hydrogen Scale-Up and Permitting

Germany is accelerating hydrogen deployment by treating hydrogen projects as “overriding public interest,” simplifying licensing and enabling large hubs like Hamburg’s 100MW electrolyzer. Opportunities grow for equipment, offtake, and infrastructure, alongside cost, CCS, and demand risks.

Energy exports and infrastructure constraints

Canada remains a major energy supplier, yet pipeline, LNG, and power-transmission buildout is politically and regulatory complex. This affects long-term contracts and project timelines. Buyers and investors should diversify routes, build flexibility into contracts, and model permitting delays.

BoJ tightening and funding costs

Markets increasingly expect the BoJ to move from 0.75% toward ~1% by mid-2026, balancing inflation, wages and yen weakness. Higher domestic rates raise corporate funding costs, reprice real estate and infrastructure finance, and alter cross-border carry-trade dynamics.

Energy security via US LNG pivot

Taiwan plans major US purchases (2025–2029) including $44.4B LNG/crude, lifting US LNG share toward 25% and reducing reliance on Middle East routes. This reorients energy supply chains, affects power-price risk, and increases the strategic value of resilient terminals and grid investments.

US tariff and investment pressure

Korea faces volatile US trade policy: tariffs shifted from 25% to 15% tied to a US$350bn Korea investment pledge, while Washington signals renewed Section 232/301 actions. Exporters must plan for abrupt duty changes, compliance, and US localization.

Tech export controls escalation

US licensing for AI chips and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials penalties) signal tighter extraterritorial controls on semiconductor tools and compute. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, end-use monitoring, and planning risk for China-facing R&D and sales.

Shadow fleet disruption and seizures

Western maritime posture is shifting from monitoring to interdiction: boarding, detentions, and potential seizures of falsely flagged tankers are rising. Russia is reflagging vessels to regain protection, but insurers, shipowners, and charterers face higher legal, safety, and reputational risks on Russia-linked routes.

Energy costs and industrial competitiveness

High power and input costs continue to pressure energy‑intensive sectors, driving restructurings and relocation decisions. BASF is shifting back‑office roles to Asia and targeting €2.3bn annual savings, signalling a wider trend affecting chemical, metals and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

Persistent Section 232 sector tariffs

National-security tariffs under Section 232 remain on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and select furniture products, independent of the IEEPA ruling. These targeted levies reshape sourcing and nearshoring decisions, complicate automotive/metal supply chains, and sustain retaliation risk from partners.

Critical minerals industrial policy surge

Ottawa is deploying over C$3.6B in programs, including a C$2B sovereign fund and C$1.5B infrastructure fund, to accelerate critical minerals projects and processing. Faster permitting and allied partnerships may attract FDI, but competition for capital and Indigenous consultation remain key constraints.

Labour shortages and mobilisation pressure

Mobilisation and displacement continue to tighten labour markets, raising wage pressure and reducing skilled workforce availability in manufacturing, construction, and logistics. Companies face productivity constraints, higher training costs, and execution risk for reconstruction projects and long-duration contracts.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

Japan’s exit from ultra-loose policy is accelerating: markets price further hikes from 0.75% toward ~1% by mid‑2026, with intervention risk near ¥160/$1. FX and rate volatility will affect hedging, funding costs, pricing, and inbound investment returns.

Baht strength and monetary easing

The Bank of Thailand signals accommodative policy and more active FX management amid baht appreciation and election-linked volatility. A potential cut toward 1.00% and tighter controls on gold-linked flows affect exporters’ margins, import costs, hedging needs and repatriation planning.

Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking

Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.

EU Chemicals Protection and Competitiveness

Europe is moving to shield chemicals amid high costs and import pressure. The EC imposed antidumping duties on ABS (5.2–21.7%) and BDO (52.4–142.5%); Cefic estimates 37 Mt/y capacity closures since 2022 and 20,000 jobs lost, influencing feedstock pricing and investment decisions.

Water infrastructure reliability and governance

Recurring outages in Gauteng highlight aging assets, high non‑revenue water (often >40% in some municipalities), and fragmented accountability. National reforms and major projects like LHWP‑2 aim to improve supply, but near-term disruptions threaten industrial operations and urban services.

Oil licensing uncertainty in Amazon margin

Federal prosecutors urged Ibama to suspend phases of Petrobras’ Foz do Amazonas licensing and assess cumulative impacts across four wells. With prior fines (R$2.5m) and scrutiny of consultations, exploration timelines and supplier contracts face delays, raising upstream project and service-sector risk.

IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Tariff cost pass-through inflation risk

A New York Fed study finds roughly 90% of 2025 tariff costs were borne by U.S. firms and consumers, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.6% to ~13%. Higher landed costs can pressure demand, margins, and inventory strategies across import-dependent sectors.

IMF program and reform conditionality

IMF completion of Egypt’s fifth and sixth EFF reviews unlocks about $2.0bn plus $273m RSF, reinforcing policy discipline. However, uneven structural reforms and slow state-asset divestment create regulatory uncertainty affecting privatizations, procurement, and investor confidence.

Ports, air cargo, multimodal logistics

Major logistics capacity is coming online: Great Nicobar transshipment port (phase 1 by 2028; 4+ million TEU), FedEx’s ₹2,500‑crore Navi Mumbai air hub, and Gati Shakti rail cargo terminals. These can lower export lead times but add project, permitting, and integration risk.

İsrail ticaret kısıtları genişliyor

Ankara’nın İsrail’e yönelik ticaret tedbirlerini Eur-Med tercih belgelerini durdurmaya kadar genişlettiği bildirildi. Bu, gümrükte menşe ve tercihli tarife süreçlerini etkileyebilir. Bölgesel tedarik, ara malı akışı ve kontrat performansı için belirsizlik artar.

Critical minerals onshoring push

Government co-investment and US-aligned financing are accelerating Australian processing capacity (e.g., Port Pirie antimony after A$135m support; US Ex-Im interest up to US$460m for projects). Expect tighter project scrutiny, faster approvals, and new offtake opportunities for allies.

Supply-chain exposure to sectoral probes

Even as some broad tariffs were struck down, U.S. Section 232 investigations into additional sectors (e.g., aircraft, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals) keep Canadian exporters at risk. Companies should scenario-plan for sudden duty changes, certification requirements and localization pressures.

Heat-pump demand volatility

Germany’s heat‑pump market remains policy‑sensitive, with demand swinging as subsidy rules and GEG expectations change. This volatility affects foreign manufacturers’ capacity planning, distributor inventory, and installer pipelines, raising risk for long‑term investment and cross‑border component sourcing.