Mission Grey Daily Brief - December 30, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation remains volatile, with geopolitical and economic tensions dominating the headlines. Iran's economy is in crisis, with protests breaking out in Tehran's historic bazaar over inflation and the devaluation of the rial. Georgia's Euro-Atlantic ambitions have been derailed, with the election of a far-right president and the suspension of its EU membership application process. Russia's war in Ukraine continues to escalate, with reports of a plane crash in Azerbaijan and allegations of sabotage by Russia's shadow fleet. Pro-Kremlin media outlets continue to spread disinformation and promote Russian narratives, while Peru's political situation remains unstable two years after a "soft" coup.

Iran's Economic Crisis

Iran's economy is in its worst state since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, with US-led sanctions over its nuclear program, support for militant groups, and arms transfers for Russia's war on Ukraine squeezing the country. The Iranian rial's sharp depreciation has had ripple effects across the economy, with merchants facing higher costs and reduced consumer demand as at least one-third of Iran is now living below the poverty line. The strike in Tehran's historic bazaar reflects the bleak outlook of the country, with business owners and employees protesting against runaway inflation and soaring foreign currency rates. The strike began with shoe sellers in the 15th Khordad area and quickly spread to other sectors, with merchants chanting "Don't be afraid, close up" and "Brave merchants, support, support". The protests soon expanded to key commercial hubs, including Abbasabad Market and Baghe Sepahsalar, known for fabric and shoe vendors. The Iranian rial's sharp depreciation has created an untenable mix of higher costs and reduced consumer demand, with at least one-third of Iran now living below the poverty line.

Georgia's Euro-Atlantic Ambitions Derailed

Georgia's Euro-Atlantic ambitions have been derailed, with the election of a far-right president and the suspension of its EU membership application process. The election of Mikheil Kavelashvili, a goateed 53-year-old former professional soccer player and founder of the ultra-right People's Power party, has sparked protests in the country, with 80% of Georgians supporting membership in the EU. The suspension of Georgia's EU membership application process until the end of 2028 has further fueled the protests, with thousands of Georgians taking to the streets to express their support for the EU and opposition to the new president. The United States has sanctioned the founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a multi-billionaire and the richest man in Georgia, for eroding democratic institutions, enabling human rights abuses, and curbing the exercise of fundamental freedoms in Georgia. The current president, Salome Zourabichvili, has derided the Georgian Dream's hand-picked selection of Kavelashvili as an anti-constitutional "farce", with legally limited powers.

Russia's War in Ukraine

Russia's war in Ukraine continues to escalate, with reports of a plane crash in Azerbaijan and allegations of sabotage by Russia's shadow fleet. Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a ball of fire near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan, with at least 38 people killed and 29 surviving. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologised for the incident, but Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has accused Russia of trying to cover up the issue for days. Finnish commandos boarded an oil tanker that officials suspect had cut through vital underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, including one that carries electricity between Finland and Estonia. The ship, the Eagle S, bears all the hallmarks of vessels belonging to Russia's shadow fleet, with officials saying it had embarked from a Russian port shortly before the cables were cut. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of a shadow fleet vessel being used to intentionally sabotage critical infrastructure in Europe, and a clear escalation by Russia in its conflict with the West.

Pro-Kremlin Media Outlets

Pro-Kremlin media outlets continue to spread disinformation and promote Russian narratives, with one outlet, Geoestrategia.eu, losing its domain and migrating to a new one. The outlet is disguised as a center for strategic research and geopolitical analysis, but Espreso. Global has concluded that it is an active part of Russia's hybrid warfare and a tool of its propaganda. The outlet frames Russia's war in Ukraine as a NATO proxy conflict, blaming Europe for "instigating the war" and spreading Russian disinformation and consistently praising Russia, its leadership, and its weapons. The outlet has also promoted Russia's claim that its new missile, Oreshnik, is unbeatable, with the narrative of invincible Russian weapons meant to make the West view the world the way the Kremlin wants.

Peru's Political Situation

Peru's political situation remains unstable two years after a "soft" coup against former President Pedro Castillo and the rise to power of Dina Boluarte, representing the transnational elite. The country continues to suffer from the chronic issues inherited from Alberto Fujimori's dictatorship in the 1990s, with no democracy in sight. The rise of Boluarte, who represents the transnational elite, has further exacerbated the country's political and economic instability, with no clear path towards democracy and stability.