Currency volatility and multiple rates

Exchange‑rate distortions and attempted unification efforts have fueled dollar demand and rial depreciation, amid allegations of delayed oil‑revenue repatriation. This elevates pricing uncertainty, contract renegotiations, and payment risk for importers/exporters, and strengthens grey‑market channels for procurement and settlement.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu için çalışmaları hızlandırma sinyali verdi; EIB’nin Türkiye’de operasyonlarına kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. Kapsamın hizmetler, tarım ve kamu alımlarına genişlemesi tedarik zinciri entegrasyonunu güçlendirebilir; takvim belirsiz.

Internet shutdowns and digital controls

Near-total internet blackouts and tighter censorship have cut businesses off from customers, suppliers, and payments, with reported losses from millions to tens of millions of dollars per day. Expect unreliable connectivity, mandatory use of domestic platforms, and elevated cybersecurity exposure.

Semiconductor-led growth and policy concentration

Exports remain chip-driven, deepening a “K-shaped” economy where semiconductors outperform domestic-demand sectors. For investors and suppliers, this concentrates opportunity and risk in advanced-node ecosystems, while prompting closer alignment with allied export-control and supply-chain security priorities.

Technology dependence and import substitution gaps

Despite ‘technological sovereignty’ ambitions, Russia remains reliant on imported high-tech inputs; estimates suggest China supplies about 90% of microchips, and key sector self-sufficiency targets lag. Supply chains face quality, substitution, and single-supplier risks, plus heightened export-control exposure.

Customs duty rebalancing on inputs

India is cutting tariffs on critical inputs (EV batteries, solar glass chemicals, rare-earth feedstocks like monazite) to reduce China dependence and protect exporters’ margins. Multinationals should reassess landed-cost models, rules-of-origin, and supplier localization roadmaps.

Talent constraints and migration policy

Hiring plans across strategic industries and demographic pressures are tightening labour markets, increasing competition for engineers, welders, and software/AI profiles. Evolving immigration tools (e.g., Talent Passport thresholds and rules) influence workforce planning, relocation costs, and project delivery risk.

USMCA review and North America

The approaching USMCA review is heightening risk for automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing flows across the US–Canada–Mexico corridor. Threatened tariffs and rules-of-origin pressures incentivize nearshoring but complicate cross-border planning, inventory placement, and long-term supplier commitments.

Nuclear expansion and export-linked cooperation

Seoul is restarting new reactors (two 1.4GW units plus a 700MW SMR) while pursuing expanded US civil nuclear rights and fuel-cycle cooperation. This reshapes electricity price expectations, industrial siting, and opportunities for EPC, components, and uranium services.

Pemex finances and supply reliability

Pemex reported debt reduced to about $84.5bn and announced multi-year capex to lift crude and gas output, targeting 1.8 mbd oil and 4.5 bcf/d gas. Improved balance sheet helps suppliers, but operational execution and fiscal dependence still affect energy reliability and payments.

Red Sea route volatility

Threats in the Red Sea/Bab al-Mandab continue to reshape routing for Israel-linked cargo, increasing transit times and container costs. Firms face higher war-risk premiums, occasional carrier capacity shifts, and greater reliance on Mediterranean gateways and overland contingencies.

Rupiah volatility and import costs

The rupiah’s depreciation episodes and tight monetary stance can raise hedging costs and complicate pricing for import-dependent sectors. Businesses should expect periodic FX-driven margin pressure, potential administrative frictions, and greater emphasis on local sourcing and USD liquidity management.

Civil defence and business continuity demands

Government focus on reserves, realistic exercises, and city resilience planning raises expectations for private-sector preparedness. Multinationals should update crisis governance, employee safety protocols, and operational continuity plans, including data backups, alternative sites, and supplier switching.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

Strategic ports and infrastructure sovereignty

Moves to return the Port of Darwin to Australian control highlight rising “sovereignty screening” over logistics assets. Investors in ports, airports, energy and telecoms should expect tougher national-interest tests, deal delays, and possible renegotiation or compensation disputes impacting valuations.

Ports and logistics corridor expansion

Egypt is building seven multimodal trade corridors, expanding ports with ~70 km of new deep-water berths and scaling dry ports toward 33. A new semi-automated Sokhna container terminal (>$1.8bn) improves throughput, but execution and tariff predictability matter.

Defense rearmament boosts demand

Germany is accelerating procurement, including a €536m first tranche of loitering munitions within a €4.3bn framework and NATO long-range drone initiatives. This supports select industrial orders and dual-use tech investment, but tightens export controls, compliance, and supply competition for components.

Auto sector reshoring pressures

Canada’s integrated auto supply chain faces U.S. tariff threats on vehicles and parts plus competitiveness challenges versus U.S. incentives and Mexico costs. Companies should reassess North American footprints, content sourcing, and contingency production, especially for EV and battery supply chains.

USMCA 2026 review renegotiation

Washington and Mexico have opened talks to rewrite USMCA ahead of the July review, targeting tougher rules of origin, critical minerals cooperation, and anti-dumping tools. North American manufacturers should prepare for compliance redesign, sourcing shifts, and border-process bottlenecks.

Weather-driven bulk supply disruptions

Queensland wet weather, force majeures and port/logistics constraints tightened metallurgical coal availability, lifting benchmark prices (FOB Australia ~US$218/mt end-2025). Commodity buyers should expect episodic supply shocks, quality variation, and higher inventory/alternative sourcing needs.

IMF conditionality and tax overhaul

IMF-driven stabilisation remains the central operating constraint: fiscal tightening, FBR tax-administration reforms through June 2027, and periodic programme reviews influence demand, public spending, and regulatory certainty. Businesses should plan for new levies, stricter compliance, and policy reversals.

Haushalts- und Rechtsrisiken

Fiskalpolitik bleibt rechtlich und politisch volatil: Nach früheren Karlsruher Urteilen drohen erneut Verfassungsklagen gegen den Bundeshaushalt 2025. Unsicherheit über Schuldenbremse, Sondervermögen und Förderlogiken erschwert Planungssicherheit für öffentliche Aufträge, Infrastruktur-Pipelines und Co-Finanzierungen privater Investoren.

İşgücü gerilimleri ve operasyon sürekliliği

Büyük perakende/lojistik ağlarında ücret anlaşmazlıkları grev ve işten çıkarmalara yol açabiliyor; dağıtım merkezleri ve depolarda aksama riski yükseliyor. Çok lokasyonlu işletmeler için sendikal dinamikler, taşeron kullanımı, güvenlik müdahaleleri ve itibar yönetimi tedarik sürekliliğini etkiler.

State-led investment via Danantara

Danantara is centralizing SOE assets and launching about US$7bn in downstream “hilirisasi” projects, while signaling possible market interventions and strategic acquisitions. The model can accelerate infrastructure and processing capacity, but raises governance, competition, and expropriation-perception risks for foreign partners.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

Federal incentives and procurement preferences for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, and critical minerals are accelerating domestic buildouts while tightening local-content expectations. Multinationals may gain subsidies but must manage higher US operating costs, labor constraints, and complex reporting requirements tied to funding.

UK–EU border frictions endure

Post‑Brexit customs and SPS requirements, the Border Target Operating Model, and Northern Ireland arrangements continue to reshape UK–EU flows. Firms face documentation risk, delays, and higher logistics overheads, driving route diversification, inventory buffers, and reconfiguration of distribution hubs serving EU markets.

Automotive transition and investment flight

VDA reports 72% of 124 suppliers are delaying, cutting or relocating German investment; employment fell from 833k (2019) to 726k (2025). EV incentives may depress used values and dealer margins, while CO₂-rule uncertainty complicates capex and sourcing decisions.

Shipbuilding and LNG carrier upcycle

Korean yards are securing high-value LNG carrier orders, supported by IMO emissions rules and rising LNG project activity, with multi-year backlogs and improving profitability. This benefits industrial suppliers and financiers, while tightening shipyard capacity and delivery slots through 2028–2029.

Strategic U.S. investment mandate

Seoul is fast‑tracking a special act to operationalize a $350bn U.S. investment pledge, including a state-run investment vehicle. Capital allocation, project selection (including energy), and conditionality will influence Korean corporates’ balance sheets and partner opportunities for foreign suppliers.

Dependência de China em commodities

A China ampliou compras de soja brasileira por vantagem de preço e incertezas tarifárias EUA–China. Essa concentração sustenta exportações, mas aumenta exposição a mudanças regulatórias chinesas, logística portuária e eventos climáticos, afetando contratos de longo prazo.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

IMF and EU funding conditionality

Ukraine risks losing over US$115bn linked to IMF ‘benchmarks’ and the EU Ukraine Facility if reforms slip, including customs leadership and public investment management. Any delays could tighten liquidity, slow public payments, and postpone infrastructure and supplier contracts.

War-risk insurance and finance scaling

Multilaterals are expanding risk-sharing and investment guarantees (e.g., EBRD record financing and MIGA guarantees), improving bankability for projects despite conflict. Better coverage can unlock FDI, contractor mobilization, and longer-tenor trade finance, though premiums remain high.

Migration and visa integrity tightening

Australia is tightening migration settings and visa oversight, affecting talent pipelines. Skilled visa backlogs and stricter student ‘Genuine Student’ tests are increasing rejection and processing risk, while Home Affairs is considering tougher sponsor vetting after exploitation cases—raising HR compliance demands for employers.

Defence build-up drives local content

Defence spending is forecast to rise from about US$42.9bn (2025) to US$56.2bn (2030), with acquisitions growing fast. AUKUS-linked procurement, shipbuilding and R&D will expand opportunities, but also stricter security vetting, ITAR-like controls, and supply-chain localization pressures.

RBA tightening and persistent inflation risk

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% as core inflation re-accelerated and capacity pressures persisted. Higher financing costs and a stronger AUD can affect valuations, capex and consumer demand, while raising hedging needs for importers/exporters and tightening credit conditions across supply chains.