Tradeoffs EUA–China e tarifas

Com tarifas dos EUA (50%) desde agosto, a fatia das exportações industriais aos EUA caiu para 13,5% e a China subiu para 12,6%; vendas ao mercado americano recuaram ~19,5%. Empresas aceleram diversificação, mas enfrentam barreiras de acesso e concorrência chinesa em manufaturados.

Ports and rail logistics bottlenecks

Transnet’s recovery is uneven: rail volumes are improving, but vandalism and underinvestment keep capacity fragile. Port congestion—such as Cape Town’s fruit-export backlog near R1bn—threatens time-sensitive shipments, raises demurrage, and pushes costly rerouting across supply chains.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Redes de “dark fleet” bajo presión

El comercio petrolero iraní depende de una “dark fleet” con AIS manipulado, cambios de bandera y transferencias STS; China absorbe la mayor parte, con hubs como Malasia. Acciones recientes (p.ej., incautaciones en India) muestran mayor interdicción y potencial disrupción de flujos.

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. controls on outbound capital and know-how—particularly toward China-linked advanced tech—are widening. Multinationals must map covered transactions, restructure joint ventures, and adjust funding routes to avoid penalties, potentially slowing cross-border R&D, venture investment, and supply-chain partnerships in dual-use sectors.

Infrastructure works disrupt logistics corridors

Large-scale Deutsche Bahn renewals and signalling upgrades are causing multi-month closures, with wider EU freight impacts on the Scandinavia–Mediterranean corridor. Congestion and modal shifts raise lead times and costs; shippers should diversify routes, build buffers, and lock capacity early.

Expansão ferroviária e corredores

A agenda ferroviária prevê oito leilões até 2027, >9.000 km e ~R$140 bi, mas há entraves ambientais, fundiários e de demanda (ex.: Ferrograo no STF/TCU). Avanços podem reduzir frete e emissões; incerteza afeta decisões de localização industrial e contratos de longo prazo.

AI chip export controls tighten

Washington is enforcing stringent licensing and end-use conditions for advanced AI chips to China (e.g., Nvidia H200), including KYC and monitoring. Policy swings can quickly change market access, cloud capacity planning, and JV strategies, while raising diversion, enforcement, and reputational risks.

Suez Canal security normalization

Container lines are cautiously returning to Red Sea/Suez transits after the Gaza ceasefire and reduced Houthi attacks, but reversals remain possible. Canal toll incentives and volatile insurance costs affect routing, freight rates, lead times, and inventory planning.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

AUKUS industrial build-out

AUKUS is driving multi-decade defence industrial expansion, including a ~A$30bn Osborne submarine yard and A$3.9bn skills spend. Opportunities rise for suppliers, but US submarine production constraints create delivery uncertainty, complicating long-lead procurement planning.

Tight fiscal headroom and tax risk

Economists warn the Chancellor’s budget headroom has already eroded despite about £26bn in tax rises, raising odds of further revenue measures. Corporate planning must factor potential changes to NI, allowances, subsidies, and public procurement priorities.

War-driven fiscal and budget shifts

The 2026 budget prioritizes defense (about NIS 112bn) amid elevated security needs, with deficit targets still high. This can crowd out civilian spending, affect taxes/regulation, shape procurement opportunities, and influence sovereign risk and project pipelines.

Disinflation and tight monetary policy

Annual inflation eased to 30.65% in January, but monthly CPI jumped 4.8%, underscoring sticky services and food risks. The central bank projects 2026 inflation at 15–21% and maintains a cautious stance, affecting credit costs, pricing, and demand planning.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

Financial volatility from foreign flows

Taiwan’s central bank flags heightened FX and equity volatility from rapid foreign capital inflows/outflows and ETF growth. This raises hedging costs and balance-sheet risk for multinationals, especially those with USD revenues and NTD cost bases or large local financing exposure.

Post-election policy continuity boost

Bhumjaithai’s clear election lead reduces coalition deadlock risk, supporting budget passage, infrastructure rollout and investor confidence. Near-term stability may lift portfolio inflows and SET liquidity, but structural reform pace and governance concerns still shape longer-run FDI decisions.

Climate and cotton supply vulnerability

Cotton output recovery to about 5m bales still leaves Pakistan importing $2–3bn annually, pressuring FX and textile margins. Heat, erratic rainfall and pests threaten yields. Apparel supply chains face higher input volatility and potential delivery risks in peak seasons.

China tech controls tightening

Export controls and licensing for advanced AI chips and semiconductor tools are tightening amid enforcement concerns (e.g., alleged diversion/smuggling of Nvidia Blackwell-class chips). Firms selling to China must implement strict KYC, end‑use monitoring, and contingency planning for abrupt rule changes.

Long-term LNG contracting, energy security

Jera signed a 27-year deal with QatarEnergy for 3 mtpa LNG from 2028; Japan imported 66.15m tons in 2023. More long-term contracting supports power reliability for data centers and chip fabs but locks in fossil exposure and price-index risks.

Incertidumbre por revisión del T-MEC

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC antes del 1 de julio y señales en Washington de renegociación o incluso salida elevan el riesgo arancelario y de reglas de origen. Esto afecta decisiones de localización, contratos de largo plazo y valuación de proyectos exportadores.

Shadow fleet disruption risks

Iran’s oil exports rely on AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and permissive hubs (notably Malaysia). Recent U.S. and Indian interdictions and sanctions increase detention, demurrage, spill, and contract-frustration risk, complicating energy sourcing, chartering, and marine insurance coverage.

Labour shortages and mobilisation pressure

Mobilisation and displacement continue to tighten labour markets, raising wage pressure and reducing skilled workforce availability in manufacturing, construction, and logistics. Companies face productivity constraints, higher training costs, and execution risk for reconstruction projects and long-duration contracts.

Defense Re-armament Drives Industrial Orders

Public procurement is shifting industrial demand: December 2025 factory orders rose 7.8% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, with defense-linked categories surging; defense spending reached €86.4bn in 2025 and is projected near €108–119bn in 2026, tightening capacity and compliance needs.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

Secondary pressure on Iran trade

Expanded maximum-pressure measures—new sanctions on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and proposals for broad punitive tariffs on countries trading with Iran—raise exposure for shippers, insurers, banks, and traders, increasing due‑diligence costs and disrupting energy and commodity logistics routes.

Regional Security and Trade Corridors

Turkey’s role in the Black Sea and Middle East connectivity agenda is growing, but regional conflicts keep logistics and insurance risks high. Disruptions can hit maritime routes, trucking corridors and transit times, affecting just-in-time supply chains and prompting inventory and routing diversification.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.

SOE liabilities and privatization pipeline

State-owned enterprises remain a major fiscal drag: SOE support reached about Rs2.079tr in FY25, while power-sector unfunded liabilities exceeded Rs2tr and circular debt neared Rs1.9tr. Privatization and restructuring create openings, but execution, labor resistance and tariff politics drive deal risk.

Energy insecurity and high costs

Gas storage fell below 30% in early February, with some Bavarian sites near-empty, boosting LNG reliance and price volatility. Elevated energy costs threaten energy‑intensive production, contract pricing, and Germany’s investment appeal versus the US and Asia.

EU accession pathway uncertainty

Kyiv’s push for EU entry by 2027 is prompting debate on fast-track or “reverse” accession models, while unanimity obstacles (notably Hungary) persist. Alignment with EU law can improve market access, but regulatory change risk and timing remain material for investors.

Strategic port build-out: Great Nicobar

The Great Nicobar project—incl. ₹40,040 crore transshipment port at Galathea Bay—was cleared by NGT, targeting 4+ million TEU by 2028 and 16 million TEU later. It aims to reduce reliance on Colombo/Singapore, shifting maritime routing, lead times, and India logistics competitiveness.

Vision 2030 strategy recalibration

PIF’s 2026–2030 strategy reset shifts Vision 2030 from capital-intensive mega-projects toward industry, minerals, AI, logistics and tourism, while re-scoping NEOM and others. For investors, this changes project pipelines, counterparties, procurement priorities and timeline risk across sectors.

BOI Fast Pass investment surge

Government is accelerating roughly THB480bn of BOI-approved projects via “Fast Pass,” targeting over THB1.1tn total investment in 2026. This boosts near-term capex, industrial demand, and supplier opportunities, but increases competition for land, utilities, and skilled labor.

Strike disruptions across logistics

A renewed strike cycle is hitting transport and services: Lufthansa cancellations reached ~800 flights affecting ~100,000 passengers, while further rail and public‑sector actions are possible from March. Recurrent stoppages raise lead times, logistics costs and contingency needs.

Macroeconomic stagnation and expensive money

Growth is slowing sharply (IMF forecasts around 0.6–0.9%), while inflation and high rates persist alongside tax increases such as VAT to 22%. Tighter credit and weaker demand elevate default risk, constrain working capital, and complicate investment cases and repatriation planning.