Rising defence spending and procurement

Germany is accelerating rearmament with major outlays (e.g., €536m initial loitering‑munitions order within a €4.3bn framework; broader funding exceeding €100bn). This boosts defence-tech opportunities but heightens export-control, security and supply‑capacity constraints.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing sanctioned 40 Japanese entities, restricting exports of dual-use goods to 20 and putting 20 more on a watch list. Escalation over security tensions raises supply-chain disruption risk for aerospace, electronics and automotive, plus countermeasure uncertainty.

FX liquidity and rupee volatility

External debt servicing and episodic reserve drawdowns keep FX liquidity tight, raising risks of delayed import payments, profit repatriation frictions and higher hedging costs. Firms should stress-test PKR moves, secure confirmed LCs, and diversify funding sources and invoicing currencies.

US/EU trade rules tightening

Thailand faces heightened external trade-policy risk: US tariff uncertainty and monitoring of transshipment, while EU market access increasingly hinges on CBAM, waste-shipment rules and standards. Firms must strengthen origin compliance, traceability, documentation and supplier due diligence to protect exports.

Data protection and digital trade pressure

DPDP Act implementation and India–US digital trade commitments may reshape cross-border data transfers, localization expectations, and platform regulation. Multinationals should prepare governance, consent management, breach response, and contract updates amid evolving rules and enforcement.

High energy costs and subsidies

Germany is spending roughly €30bn in 2026 to damp electricity prices, yet industry expects structurally higher power costs. Energy-intensive sectors cite competitiveness losses and relocation risk; firms should stress-test contracts, hedge exposure, and evaluate alternative EU production footprints.

Mining law and licensing uncertainty

The Mineral Resources Development Amendment Bill has been criticized for ambiguity, while debates over BEE conditions, beneficiation and application timelines continue. Exploration spend fell to about R781m in 2024 (from R6.2bn in 2006), constraining future output and investor appetite.

Shadow fleet interdiction and shipping risk

Western enforcement is shifting from monitoring to interdiction: boardings, seizures, and “stateless vessel” designations target Russia-linked tankers using false flags and AIS gaps. This increases marine insurance premiums, port due‑diligence burdens, and disruption risk for Black Sea, Baltic, and Mediterranean routes.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Coût de l’énergie industrielle

La facture énergétique industrielle a reculé en 2024 (−24% à 17,3 Md€), mais reste ~1,5 fois 2019. L’électricité a baissé (−28% en 2024) après hausse 2023. Compétitivité, pricing et décisions de localisation restent sensibles aux marchés.

Water infrastructure failure risk

Water and sanitation systems face an estimated R400 billion rehabilitation backlog, with many municipalities rated “poor” or “critical.” Recent Gauteng outages affected up to 10 million people after power trips. Operational disruption risks include plant shutdowns, hygiene, and industrial downtime.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

AI hardware export surge and tariffs

High-end AI chips and servers are driving trade imbalances and policy attention; the U.S. deficit with Taiwan hit about US$126.9B in Jan–Nov 2025, largely from AI chip imports. Expect tighter reporting, security reviews, and shifting tariff exposure across AI stacks.

Sanctions compliance incentives harden

OFSI now states penalties can be reduced up to 30% for self-reporting and cooperation. For online investing firms with cross-border clients, stronger screening, escalation and audit trails become strategic necessities as UK sanctions enforcement intensity rises.

Suez Canal security normalization

Container lines are cautiously returning to Red Sea/Suez transits after the Gaza ceasefire and reduced Houthi attacks, but reversals remain possible. Canal toll incentives and volatile insurance costs affect routing, freight rates, lead times, and inventory planning.

Regulatory enforcement and raids risk

China’s security-focused regulatory climate—anti-espionage, state-secrets, and data-related enforcement—raises due-diligence and operational risk for foreign firms. Expect tighter controls on information flows, heightened scrutiny of consulting, and increased need for localized compliance and document governance.

Geopolitical alignment and sanctions exposure

Heightened US–South Africa tensions increase tail-risk of targeted financial measures. With roughly 20% of SA government debt held by foreigners, any restrictions could spike yields and weaken the rand, complicating trade finance, USD liquidity, and investment returns.

Port congestion and export delays

Transnet’s operational fragility—illustrated by Cape Town container backlogs leaving roughly R1bn of fruit exports delayed—raises costs, spoilage risk and schedule uncertainty. Low global port performance rankings and equipment breakdowns drive rerouting, higher inland transport spend, and volatile lead times.

Gargalos portuários e competição

Portos bateram 1,4 bi t em 2025 (+6,1%), mas Santos enfrenta risco de colapso sem expansão; o Tecon Santos 10 segue com disputas regulatórias e risco de judicialização. Atrasos elevam demurrage, perdas logísticas e confiabilidade de exportação/importação de cargas conteinerizadas.

Geopolitics embedded in trade access

Trade access is increasingly tied to strategic alignment: US pressure links market access to India’s Russian crude imports and broader economic-security positioning. Firms should model sanctions/secondary‑risk, energy procurement shifts, and the possibility of sudden tariff snapbacks driven by geopolitics.

Immigration settlement reforms and workforce risk

Home Office proposals to extend settlement timelines from five to ten-plus years could affect 1.35m legal migrants, including ~300,000 children, with retrospective application debated. Employers may face retention challenges, higher sponsorship reliance, and more complex mobility planning.

Sanctions compliance and rerouting risks

Ongoing Russia-related sanctions and rising evidence of gray-market rerouting via third countries increase exposure for Japanese brands and distributors. Companies should tighten end-use checks, dealer controls, and trade-finance screening to avoid enforcement, reputational harm, and shipment seizures.

Investment screening and CFIUS enforcement

Heightened national-security scrutiny is expanding into data-rich assets and tech supply chains. DOJ actions over failed divestment orders and greater sensitivity to China-linked capital raise timelines, mitigation costs, and deal-certainly risk for foreign investors, joint ventures, and M&A in strategic sectors.

Semiconductor tariffs and reshoring push

A new 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors, alongside ongoing incentives for domestic capacity, is reshaping electronics and AI hardware economics. Firms face higher input costs near-term, while medium-term investment flows shift toward U.S. fabs amid persistent dependence on foreign suppliers.

Domestic Demand and Housing Fragility

Authorities remain cautious about easing as housing-related financial-stability risks persist, constraining policy flexibility. Weaker domestic demand limits revenue growth for consumer-facing businesses while keeping labor and input costs sticky, and it heightens sensitivity to external shocks and currency swings.

Currency management and capital shifts

The yuan has strengthened toward multi‑year highs, but authorities are signaling caution to avoid rapid appreciation. Reports of guidance to curb bank U.S. Treasury exposure align with reserve diversification and yuan internationalization, affecting FX hedging costs, repatriation strategy, and USD funding assumptions.

Fiscal rules and policy volatility

Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces criticism that the UK’s fiscal framework over-emphasizes narrow “headroom,” risking frequent policy tweaks as forecasts move. For investors, this elevates uncertainty around taxes, public spending, infrastructure commitments, and overall macro credibility.

High energy costs, gas risk

Germany faces structurally higher industrial power costs and renewed gas-storage risk. Storage levels were ~26–34% in early February and summer prices near winter 2026/27 reduce refill incentives; some sites may close. Energy-intensive production and contracts face volatility.

مسار صندوق النقد والإصلاحات

مراجعات برنامج صندوق النقد تركز على الانضباط المالي، توسيع القاعدة الضريبية، وإدارة مخاطر المالية العامة. التقدم أو التعثر ينعكس مباشرة على ثقة المستثمرين، تدفقات العملة الأجنبية، وتوافر التمويل، مع حساسية اجتماعية قد تؤخر قرارات تحرير الأسعار والدعم.

Industrial carbon pricing competitiveness

Canada is adjusting industrial carbon pricing to cut emissions while protecting competitiveness, with implications for energy-intensive exporters facing EU/other carbon-border measures. Policy design affects operating costs, capital allocation, and product-market access strategy.

Digital trade and data transfer rules

Kesepakatan transfer data lintas negara RI–AS dalam ART menegaskan aliran data dengan perlindungan UU PDP No.27/2022, larangan pemaksaan alih teknologi/kode sumber, serta komitmen moratorium bea transmisi elektronik. Ini mempengaruhi strategi cloud, penempatan data sensitif, audit kepatuhan, dan negosiasi vendor TI global.

Высокий риск реинвестиций и выхода

Российские власти сигнализируют, что возвращение иностранцев будет избирательным: «ниши заняты», условия различат «корректный» и «некорректный» уход. Это повышает риски репатриации прибыли, правоприменения и предсказуемости правил для инвестиций и M&A.

Tighter tech export controls

BIS continues tightening—and sometimes recalibrating—controls on advanced computing, AI chips, and semiconductor equipment tied to China. Firms must manage licensing, end-use checks, and diversion risk through third countries, raising costs and delaying shipments in sensitive tech ecosystems.

Monetary easing, inflation volatility

Bank Rate is 3.75% after a close 5–4 vote, with inflation about 3.4% and forecasts near 2% from spring. Shifting rate-cut timing drives sterling moves, refinancing costs, commercial property valuations, and UK project hurdle rates for investors.

Rising carbon price on heating

Germany’s national CO₂ price increased from €55 to up to €65 per tonne in 2026, lifting costs for gas and oil heating. The trajectory supports Wärmewende investments, while impacting fuel import flows, hedging strategies, and competitiveness of fossil-based heating equipment supply chains.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para CBS/IBS e Imposto Seletivo começa em 2026 e vai até 2033, com mudanças de crédito e cobrança no destino. Empresas precisam adaptar ERP, precificação e contratos; risco de litígios e custos temporários de compliance aumenta.