Investment security screening expands

CFIUS scrutiny and emerging outbound-investment controls increase deal uncertainty in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing. Cross-border M&A may require longer timelines, mitigation agreements, or abandonment; investors need earlier national-security due diligence and structural protections.

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.

Low inflation and financing conditions

L’inflation française a touché 0,4% en janvier (plus bas depuis 2020), favorisant une baisse du Livret A à 1,5%. Coût du capital potentiellement plus bas (crédit immobilier ~3,1%), mais consommation et prix de services modérés influencent prévisions de ventes et salaires.

Energy Sector Reform and Pemex Strategy

Mexico is investing $323 billion in energy and infrastructure through 2030, with Pemex targeting 1.8 million barrels daily and expanding natural gas. Reforms focus on debt reduction, domestic refining, and attracting private capital, but Pemex’s financial health remains a concern.

Korea–US investment implementation bottlenecks

Parliament is fast-tracking a special act to operationalize Korea’s $350bn strategic investment package, while ministries set interim project-review structures. Execution pace, project bankability, and conditionality debates affect inbound/outbound capital planning, M&A timing, and supplier localization decisions.

Energy transition and critical minerals

India targets rare-earth corridors and a ₹7,280 crore permanent-magnets incentive, reflecting urgency after China export curbs. Renewable capacity reached ~254 GW (49.83% of installed) by Nov 2025, boosting investment in grids, storage, and clean-tech supply chains.

Rate-cut uncertainty, sticky inflation

With CPI around 3.4% and the Bank of England cautious, timing and depth of rate cuts remain contested. Volatile borrowing costs affect capex decisions, leveraged buyouts, real estate financing, FX expectations and consumer demand, complicating pricing and hedging strategies.

Sanctions expansion and enforcement

New US sanctions packages—especially on Iran’s oil “shadow fleet” and crypto-linked channels—tighten financial and shipping compliance for traders, insurers, and banks. Extra-territorial exposure increases for third-country counterparties, with elevated due-diligence and payment-settlement risk.

Labor Market Reforms and Corporate Impact

South Korea is enacting sweeping labor reforms to extend protections to up to 8.6 million freelancers and platform workers. While aiming to reduce inequality, these measures could increase compliance costs, heighten labor market rigidity, and accelerate automation in business operations.

VAT and Regulatory Changes in Energy

France will raise VAT on energy subscriptions from 5.5% to 20% in August 2026 to comply with EU rules. This tax hike, alongside evolving energy regulations, will affect operating costs, consumer demand, and investment decisions in the energy and industrial sectors.

AI governance in retail finance

FCA’s call for input on AI’s long-term impact to 2030 signals reliance on outcome-based frameworks rather than new rules. Online investing firms must prove model governance, explainability and third‑party controls to deploy AI in advice, nudging and surveillance.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Nearshoring Momentum and Supply Chain Shifts

Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub is accelerating, driven by US-China tensions and global supply chain recalibration. Firms are relocating manufacturing to Mexico for resilience, but face challenges including labor shortages, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory complexity.

US–Taiwan chip reindustrialization

Washington is tying tariff relief to onshore capacity, including a reported $250bn Taiwan investment framework to expand US fabrication and supply chains. The policy accelerates localization and friend-shoring, but heightens execution risk, capex needs, and supplier relocation pressure.

Improving external buffers and ratings

Fitch revised Turkey’s outlook to positive, citing gross FX reserves near $205bn and net reserves (ex-swaps) about $78bn, reducing balance-of-payments risk. Better buffers can stabilize trade finance and counterparty risk, though inflation and politics still weigh on sentiment.

Civil defence and business continuity demands

Government focus on reserves, realistic exercises, and city resilience planning raises expectations for private-sector preparedness. Multinationals should update crisis governance, employee safety protocols, and operational continuity plans, including data backups, alternative sites, and supplier switching.

Data privacy and surveillance constraints

Growing scrutiny of government and commercial data collection is increasing compliance and reputational risk, especially for data brokers, adtech, and cross-border data users. Senators allege ICE buys location and other sensitive data from brokers; efforts to revive the “Fourth Amendment Is Not for Sale Act” could tighten rules.

Energia e sanções: diesel russo

Importações de diesel russo voltaram a crescer (média 151 kbpd em janeiro), atraídas por descontos e restrições de mercado da Rússia. Empresas enfrentam risco reputacional e de compliance, além de incerteza comercial com EUA e volatilidade de oferta.

Critical Mineral Diversification Strategy

Japanese firms are rapidly diversifying supply chains for minerals like gallium and rare earths, securing new sources in Kazakhstan and Australia. These efforts aim to reduce strategic vulnerabilities, ensure manufacturing continuity, and stabilize high-tech sectors amid global supply shocks.

Dunkirk “Battery Valley” logistics advantage

Northern France is consolidating a “Battery Valley” around Dunkirk/Bourbourg with port and multimodal links, plus grid access near Gravelines nuclear plant. This can lower inbound materials and outbound cell transport costs, influencing site selection and supply-chain routing.

Complex Sanctions and Regulatory Landscape

Ukraine’s regulatory environment is shaped by evolving sanctions on Russia and new trade controls. Businesses face compliance challenges, especially regarding dual-use goods and financial transactions, requiring constant monitoring of legal and operational risks.

Infrastructure Expansion and Regional Hub Ambitions

Massive investments in transport, ports, and logistics are positioning Egypt as a regional trade and manufacturing hub. Projects like the Suez Canal Economic Zone and logistics corridors aim to enhance supply chain resilience and attract multinational manufacturers seeking regional access.

Coupang breach escalates to ISDS

Coupang’s data-leak investigation is triggering US political pushback and investor-state dispute settlement threats under the Korea–US FTA. A prolonged legal-diplomatic fight could chill US tech investment, complicate enforcement predictability, and heighten retaliatory trade risk perceptions.

Current Account Deficit and Financing

Brazil’s current account deficit reached US$68.8 billion in 2025 (3.02% of GDP), financed mainly by long-term foreign investment. While trade balances remain positive, deficits in services and primary income require ongoing capital inflows to sustain external stability.

China’s Strategic Export Controls

China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and technology, targeting entire supply chains. These measures, often ambiguous and reactive, create uncertainty for global manufacturers and heighten the risk of supply disruptions in sectors such as electronics, EVs, and renewable energy.

EU Energy Decoupling and Bans

The EU has legislated a full ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports by 2027, with plans to phase out Russian oil as well. This structural decoupling will reshape European energy markets, accelerate diversification, and impact global energy flows, with significant implications for Russian revenues and EU supply chains.

Border trade decentralization measures

Tehran is delegating exceptional powers to border provinces to secure essential imports via simplified customs and barter-style mechanisms. This may improve resilience for basic goods but increases regulatory fragmentation, corruption exposure, and unpredictability for cross-border traders and distributors.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported fuels makes LNG procurement, terminal resilience, and grid stability strategic business variables. Cross-strait disruptions could quickly constrain power supply for fabs and data centers; policy debate over new nuclear options signals potential regulatory and investment shifts.

Outbound investment screening expands

New U.S. outbound investment restrictions for semiconductors, quantum, and advanced AI create approval or notification burdens for cross-border deals and R&D. Companies must reassess Asia tech exposure, ring-fence sensitive IP, and build deal timelines around regulatory review risk.

IMF programme drives policy

IMF-backed reforms through 2027 anchor fiscal discipline, privatisation and revenue mobilisation, but also constrain policy flexibility. Review outcomes shape investor sentiment, sovereign risk pricing and the operating environment for imports, pricing, and capital repatriation across sectors.

Persistent Supply Chain Disruptions

UK supply chains face ongoing disruptions from geopolitical shocks, logistics bottlenecks, and rising shipping costs. These challenges increase operational risks and require businesses to enhance resilience and diversify sourcing strategies.

Energy security and LNG logistics

PGN began supplying LNG cargoes from Tangguh Papua to the FSRU Jawa Barat, supporting power and industrial demand with distribution capacity up to 100 MMSCFD. Greater LNG reliance improves near-term supply resilience, but exposes users to shipping, price-indexation, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Infrastructure Investment Spurs Opportunities

Major federal investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act are modernizing US transportation, energy, and digital networks. These initiatives create significant opportunities for construction, technology, and green energy sectors, while also improving long-term supply chain efficiency.

Climate hazards raising operating costs

Wildfires, flooding and extreme weather are driving higher insurance premiums, physical supply disruptions and workforce impacts across Canada. Asset-heavy sectors should reassess site selection, business continuity planning, and climate-resilience capex, including backup power and logistics redundancy.

Defense buildup reshapes industry

With defense spending reaching ~2% of GDP in FY2025 and election momentum for a more proactive posture, procurement, dual-use controls, and cyber/intelligence requirements are expanding. Opportunities rise for aerospace, electronics, and services, alongside higher regulatory scrutiny.

Labor Market Reforms and Transparency

France is implementing EU directives on salary transparency to address gender pay gaps and workforce equity. New laws require disclosure of pay ranges and justification of disparities, impacting HR policies, compliance costs, and labor relations for domestic and international employers.