Chip supply-chain reshoring pressure

Washington is pushing Taiwan to expand US semiconductor capacity, with floated targets up to 40% and threats of sharp tariff hikes if unmet. Taipei says large-scale relocation is “impossible,” implying sustained negotiation risk, capex uncertainty, and bifurcated production footprints for customers.

Financial conditions and liquidity volatility

Interbank rates spiked before easing (overnight near 8.5% after 17–17.5%), highlighting liquidity sensitivity and potential pass-through to loan/deposit costs. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are also growing. Foreign investors should stress-test funding, hedging, and counterparty risk for Vietnam operations.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

AI data centres for XR

Large-scale data-centre investments by Google, Microsoft and TikTok are expanding Finland’s compute base, lowering latency for XR rendering and simulation. However, power-price volatility and planned electricity-tax hikes raise operating-cost risk and influence site-selection for immersive workloads.

Energy security via LNG contracting

With gas ~60% of Thailand’s power mix and domestic supply declining, PTT, Egat, and Gulf are locking in 15-year LNG deals (e.g., 1mtpa with Cheniere; up to 0.8mtpa with Engie) to reduce spot-price exposure. This influences industrial power costs and emissions pathways.

Foreign investment scrutiny intensifies

Heightened national-security screening of capital flows—via CFIUS and Defense “FOCI” mitigation reviews—raises execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes, especially in aerospace, AI, space, and dual-use sectors, potentially altering valuation, governance terms, and closing timelines.

Balochistan militancy and corridor security

Repeated attacks in Balochistan target transport links and state assets, raising security costs for CPEC, mining and logistics around Gwadar. Heightened risk threatens project timelines, insurance premiums and staff safety, complicating due diligence for greenfield investment.

Property slump and financial spillovers

China’s housing correction continues to depress demand and strain credit. January new-home prices fell 3.1% y/y and 0.4% m/m, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. Persistent developer debt and bank exposures weigh on consumption, payments risk, and counterparty reliability across B2B sectors.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

West Bank policy escalation and sanctions risk

Cabinet moves to deepen West Bank control and ease land acquisition for settlements raise diplomatic friction. Companies face heightened reputational exposure, potential EU/US policy responses, and tighter due diligence on counterparties, locations, and projects linked to occupied territories.

Ports, logistics and infrastructure scaling

Seaport throughput is rising, supported by a 2030 system investment plan of about VND359.5tn (US$13.8bn). Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City port master plans aim major capacity increases, improving lead times and resilience for exporters, but construction, permitting and last-mile bottlenecks persist.

Automotive transition and investment flight

Auto suppliers warn of relocation: 72% are delaying, cutting or moving German investment; 64% cut jobs in 2025. EU CO₂ rules, EV competition and high energy prices drive restructuring. Supply chains should plan for capacity shifts and tier-2 insolvency risk.

FDIC resolution and failure risk

Recent FDIC-led closures highlight persistent tail risk among smaller institutions with concentrated portfolios and weak controls. Failure events can freeze credit lines, interrupt payment processing, and complicate escrow and cash-management arrangements for foreign-owned subsidiaries operating across states.

Mobilization-driven labour and HR risk

Ongoing mobilization and enforcement practices tighten labour supply and raise HR compliance and reputational risks for employers. Firms face higher wage pressure, absenteeism, and operational continuity challenges, while needing robust documentation for exemptions/critical-worker status and strengthened duty-of-care in high-stress environments.

Supply chain realignment and friend-shoring

U.S. economic security doctrine is reinforcing regionalization and ‘friend-shoring,’ influencing sourcing, logistics hubs, and capital flows toward allied jurisdictions. Companies are adopting dual supply chains, higher inventory buffers, and geopolitical risk premiums, raising costs but improving resilience.

Secondary tariffs and sanctions escalation

New measures broaden U.S. economic coercion, including tariffs on countries trading with Iran and expanded sanctions on Iranian oil networks. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, shipping and insurance frictions, potential retaliation, and heightened due diligence on counterparties and trade finance.

Commodity price volatility, capacity stress

Downstream processing economics are challenged by price swings (e.g., lithium refining closures) despite strategic policy support. International partners should structure flexible offtakes, consider tolling/hedging, and evaluate counterparty resilience, as consolidation and state-backed support reshape the sector.

US tariff-linked investment package

Tokyo and Washington are accelerating a $550bn investment mechanism tied to reduced US tariffs on Japanese exports (notably autos). Projects span LNG, gas power and critical minerals, creating opportunities but adding policy-conditional timing, compliance and clawback risks.

Cross-platform 3D software ecosystem

Finland’s software stack for embedded and real-time 3D—exemplified by Qt-based tooling—supports industrial HMI, visualization and simulation interfaces. This reduces porting friction across devices, benefiting global deployments, though talent competition and valuation cycles can affect supplier stability.

War-driven security and continuity

Ongoing missile and drone attacks create persistent operational disruption, especially in frontline and port regions. Firms face heightened physical security, force‑majeure risk, staff safety duty-of-care, and higher operating costs, shaping investment horizons and location decisions.

Fiscal deadlock and tax volatility

France’s 2026 budget passed via Article 49.3 after ~25,000 amendments, with a projected 5.4% GDP deficit. Corporate surtaxes and production-tax uncertainty raise planning risk for multinationals, affecting pricing, capex timing, and location decisions amid 2027 election volatility.

Nickel quotas reshape supply

Jakarta is tightening nickel mining RKAB quotas, slashing major producers’ 2026 allowances and targeting national output around 260–270 million tons versus 379 million in 2025. Ore shortages may boost imports, alter battery-material supply chains, and raise project execution risk.

Sanctions escalation and extraterritorial risk

EU’s proposed 20th package shifts from price caps toward a full maritime-services ban on Russian crude, adds ports and banks in third countries, and expands tech export bans. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure, compliance costs, and deal-break risks for global firms.

Compliance gaps in industrial estates

Parliamentary disclosures highlighting missing mandatory investment activity reporting by major nickel operators underscore governance and oversight gaps. For multinationals, this elevates ESG, tax, and permitting due-diligence requirements, and increases exposure to audits, fines, or operational interruptions.

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. controls on outbound capital and know-how—particularly toward China-linked advanced tech—are widening. Multinationals must map covered transactions, restructure joint ventures, and adjust funding routes to avoid penalties, potentially slowing cross-border R&D, venture investment, and supply-chain partnerships in dual-use sectors.

Inestabilidad social y riesgo regulatorio

Las protestas recurrentes y respuestas de seguridad elevan el riesgo operativo: cierres de internet, restricciones a apps, mayor vigilancia y cambios normativos rápidos. Esto afecta logística urbana, continuidad de negocios, ciberseguridad y cumplimiento de datos, complicando operaciones de filiales y partners.

Gas expansion and petrochemicals feedstock

Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas project began selling condensate and targets large gas and liquids volumes by 2030, potentially freeing ~1 mb/d of crude for export and boosting NGL supply. This reshapes regional feedstock economics for power, chemicals, and downstream manufacturing.

US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Energy import diversification to US

Pertamina menandatangani MoU pasokan light crude dan kontrak LPG 2026 dengan Hartree dan Phillips 66, total LPG sekitar 2,2 juta metrik ton. Bersama komitmen ART membeli energi AS, ini menggeser pola impor dari pemasok tradisional, berdampak pada harga, logistik, dan peluang trading/penyimpanan regional.

Immigration tightening and labor supply

Policies projected to cut legal immigration by roughly 33–50% over four years could deepen labor shortages in logistics, tech, healthcare, and manufacturing. Firms may see wage pressure, slower expansion, and increased reliance on automation and offshore service delivery.

Heizungsgesetz-Reform erhöht Regulierungsrisiko

Die angekündigte Überarbeitung des Gebäudeenergiegesetzes („Heizungsgesetz“) schafft kurzfristig Unsicherheit über zulässige Technologien, Nachrüstpflichten und Übergangsfristen. Das bremst Investitionsentscheidungen, verschiebt Aufträge und verändert Markteintrittsstrategien für ausländische Hersteller, EPCs und Finanzierer.

Energy roadmap: nuclear-led electrification

The PPE3 to 2035 prioritizes six new EPR2 reactors (first expected 2038) and aims to raise decarbonised energy to 60% of consumption by 2030 while trimming some solar/wind targets. Impacts power prices, grid investment, and energy‑intensive manufacturing location decisions.

Digital trade and data transfer rules

Kesepakatan transfer data lintas negara RI–AS dalam ART menegaskan aliran data dengan perlindungan UU PDP No.27/2022, larangan pemaksaan alih teknologi/kode sumber, serta komitmen moratorium bea transmisi elektronik. Ini mempengaruhi strategi cloud, penempatan data sensitif, audit kepatuhan, dan negosiasi vendor TI global.

EU Customs Union Modernization

Turkey and the EU are moving to “pave the way” for modernizing the 1995 Customs Union, alongside better implementation and renewed EIB activity. An update could expand coverage and improve regulatory alignment, supporting nearshoring, automotive/appliances supply chains, and cross-border investment planning.

IMF-backed macro stabilization push

IMF board review could unlock about $2.3bn, reinforcing Egypt’s shift to exchange-rate flexibility and fiscal consolidation. Record reserves near $52.6bn and easing inflation support confidence, but reforms can still trigger price adjustments and policy volatility for investors.

Policy disruption from shutdown risks

Repeated funding standoffs—recent partial shutdowns and DHS funding cliffs—delay economic data releases, create operational uncertainty for agencies affecting travel, disaster response, and cybersecurity, and inject timing risk into regulated processes and government-dependent contracts for international firms.