Data (Use and Access) Act shift

The DUAA’s main provisions are in force, expanding ICO investigative powers and raising potential PECR fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover. Firms must reassess data-governance, consent, product design, vendor risk and UK‑EU data-transfer posture.

Labor Market and Talent Dynamics

Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing sector is experiencing labor shortages and competition for engineering talent, exacerbated by global expansion. Demographic trends and workforce development are critical factors for sustaining innovation and operational resilience.

Privatization and PPP Expansion

Saudi Arabia’s new National Privatization Strategy targets over 220 PPP contracts and $64 billion in private investment by 2030. This broadens opportunities for foreign investors in infrastructure, transport, water, and health, while increasing private sector participation and competition.

Energy Sector Liberalization and Investment

Mexico is negotiating with global oil majors like Chevron and BP to attract private capital for offshore projects, aiming to halt declining output. The evolving regulatory framework offers opportunities but also poses risks due to ongoing policy shifts and Pemex’s dominant state role.

Supply Chain Realignment and Resilience

Recent trade frictions and export controls, especially involving the US, China, and Japan, are driving South Korea to diversify supply chains and pursue trilateral cooperation. This realignment is critical for mitigating risks in high-tech manufacturing and maintaining global market access.

Fiscal volatility and higher taxes

Le budget 2026 est adopté via 49.3, dans un contexte de majorité introuvable. Déficit visé à 5% du PIB, dette projetée à 118,2% et surtaxe sur grandes entreprises (7,3 Md€) augmentent le risque de changements fiscaux rapides.

Trade rerouting and buyer concentration

Russian crude increasingly flows to India and China; enforcement has widened discounts (reported ~$24/bbl in 2025) and pushed some refiners to diversify away from sanctioned suppliers. Buyer concentration heightens counterparty leverage, renegotiation pressure, and sudden demand shifts.

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Realignment

Australia is rapidly expanding its critical minerals sector, including rare earths, lithium, gallium, and scandium, to reduce reliance on China and support allied supply chains. Strategic stockpiles and new mining projects are reshaping global supply chains, attracting major international investment and government backing.

Debt Crisis and Military Economic Dominance

Egypt’s deepening debt crisis is exacerbated by the military’s control of vast financial reserves and key economic sectors, limiting fiscal flexibility, deterring private investment, and complicating IMF negotiations for structural reform and external financing.

Energy export policy and pricing

US LNG export capacity and permitting decisions influence global gas prices and industrial competitiveness. Any tightening of export approvals or infrastructure constraints can raise volatility for energy-intensive manufacturers abroad, while expanded capacity strengthens US leverage and attracts downstream investment into North America.

Global Supply Chain Realignment

US tariff policies and geopolitical frictions have accelerated the diversification of supply chains away from China. Southeast Asian countries, notably Indonesia and Thailand, gained significant US sourcing share in 2025, reshaping manufacturing and logistics strategies for international businesses.

Regional Integration and Trade Bloc Leverage

South Africa’s leadership in the African Continental Free Trade Area and regional infrastructure partnerships enhances its role as a gateway to Africa, supporting supply chain diversification and positioning the country as a hub for multinational investment and trade.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

Federal incentives and procurement preferences for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, and critical minerals are accelerating domestic buildouts while tightening local-content expectations. Multinationals may gain subsidies but must manage higher US operating costs, labor constraints, and complex reporting requirements tied to funding.

Trade Policy and New Agreements

Saudi Arabia is actively negotiating new trade agreements and positioning itself as a connector economy. These efforts are expected to open markets, facilitate cross-border commerce, and drive moderate earnings growth, benefiting international exporters and importers.

Rising Role in Regional Energy Supply

Indonesia is expanding its LNG and gas infrastructure, securing supply for power generation and industry. Projects like the FSRU Jawa Barat and new gas processing facilities support energy security, industrial growth, and regional supply chain resilience.

Strategic Autonomy and Economic Sovereignty Push

President Macron is urging the EU to strengthen strategic autonomy in response to external pressures, particularly from the US. France advocates for robust EU trade defense tools and reduced dependence on foreign markets, aiming to protect critical sectors and enhance economic sovereignty.

Currency Watchlist and Baht Volatility

The US Treasury has placed Thailand on its currency monitoring list due to trade and current account surpluses. The Bank of Thailand is tightening gold trading rules to curb speculative capital flows, which may impact exchange rates, compliance costs, and cross-border financial operations.

Vision 2030 Drives Economic Diversification

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is accelerating economic diversification, reducing reliance on oil by expanding sectors like mining, tourism, logistics, and manufacturing. This transformation is reshaping the investment landscape and creating new opportunities for international businesses across multiple industries.

US Tariff Threats Disrupt Trade

President Trump's threat of up to 25% tariffs on German and European goods over the Greenland dispute has triggered market volatility, undermined export confidence, and threatens Germany’s export-driven industries. The automotive, machinery, and luxury sectors face immediate risks, with potential for broader economic and supply chain disruption if escalation continues.

Diversification of Trade Partnerships

With strained US and EU relations, South Africa is strengthening ties with the UAE, China, and other Asian markets. This diversification supports investment in renewable energy, AI, and manufacturing, but also exposes the country to new geopolitical and compliance risks.

Geoeconomic Rivalry and Supply Chain Realignment

US-China strategic competition over technology, critical minerals, and industrial policy is driving global supply chain realignment. Companies are diversifying sourcing, investing in resilience, and reassessing exposure to geopolitical risks, with implications for cost structures and market access.

Sanctions enforcement and secondary risk

Expanded sanctions and tougher enforcement related to Russia, Iran, and technology diversion raise compliance burdens and counterparty risk. Companies face greater exposure to secondary sanctions, stricter due diligence on intermediaries, and potential payment/insurance disruptions, especially in energy, shipping, and dual-use goods.

Regulatory Liberalization and Market Access

Major regulatory reforms now allow full foreign ownership in key sectors, including real estate and capital markets. The opening of the Saudi Exchange to all foreign investors from February 2026 and streamlined business processes are accelerating international participation and capital inflows.

Pending Supreme Court Ruling on Tariff Authority

A forthcoming Supreme Court decision will determine the executive branch’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs. The outcome could reshape the US trade landscape, affecting the predictability of future trade policy and the legal environment for international business operations.

Clean economy tax credits and industrial policy

Clean economy investment tax credits and budget-linked expensing proposals support decarbonization projects in manufacturing, power and real estate. However, eligibility rules, domestic-content expectations and fiscal-policy uncertainty affect IRR. Investors should model policy clawbacks and compliance costs.

Fragmentation of Global Trade Architecture

The US shift toward protectionism and bilateral deals is fragmenting global trade frameworks. Major economies are hedging against American policy volatility by forging alternative alliances, reducing reliance on US markets and supply chains, and accelerating regional trade agreements.

Border trade decentralization, barter

Tehran is delegating emergency import powers to border provinces, enabling direct imports, simplified customs, and barter to secure essentials under sanctions and conflict risk. This creates localized regulatory variance, higher compliance ambiguity, and opportunities for regional traders with elevated corruption risk.

Strategic Partnerships and Economic Diplomacy

Egypt is deepening economic ties with Gulf states, notably Qatar, through multi-billion-dollar investment agreements and energy cooperation. These partnerships diversify Egypt’s capital sources and support resilience amid regional and global economic pressures.

Supply Chain Realignment for Shelter Materials

The new legal requirements are driving increased demand for specialized construction materials, ventilation, and reinforced concrete. This is prompting supply chain adjustments, nearshoring strategies, and opportunities for international suppliers, but also risks of bottlenecks and price volatility.

Agricultural and Resource Export Diversification

Australia continues to diversify export markets and products, leveraging new trade agreements and investments in minerals, agriculture, and technology. However, exposure to external shocks—such as Chinese trade actions or global commodity price swings—remains a significant risk for international investors and supply chains.

Geopolitical Influence on US Trade Agreements

US trade negotiations with partners like India and Taiwan are increasingly shaped by strategic considerations, such as technology alliances and supply chain security. This trend links trade policy to broader geopolitical objectives, complicating deal-making and impacting global investment strategies.

Competition regime reforms reshape deal risk

Government plans to make CMA processes faster and more predictable, with reviews of existing market remedies and merger control certainty. This could reduce regulatory delay for transactions, but also changes strategy for market-entry, pricing conduct, and consolidation across regulated sectors.

Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy Changes

Russia’s budget deficit reached 2.6% of GDP in 2025, the highest since 2020, as energy revenues fell. The government raised VAT and other taxes to offset losses, increasing the fiscal burden on businesses and consumers and creating uncertainty for investors and multinational corporations.

Private Sector Expansion and Economic Reform

Egypt aims for the private sector to account for over 70% of total investment by 2030, up from 65% currently. Structural reforms focus on limiting state spending, enhancing transparency, and fostering a competitive business environment for international investors.

Yuan Internationalization and Financial Strategy

China is promoting the yuan’s global usage, expanding offshore liquidity hubs and payment frameworks. This financial strategy aims to reduce dollar dependence, enhance China’s influence in cross-border transactions, and provide alternatives for international businesses.

EU Strategic Autonomy and Trade Defense

France is advocating for stronger EU trade defense tools, including the activation of the anti-coercion instrument, to counteract US and Chinese economic pressure. This shift toward strategic autonomy could reshape investment, procurement, and regulatory environments for international companies.