Critical Minerals Strategy and Supply Chain Security

The UK has launched a critical minerals strategy aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers by 2035, targeting 10% domestic production and 20% recycling. This is vital amid China's dominance in rare earths and growing demand for minerals essential to tech, EVs, and AI infrastructure, enhancing supply chain resilience and national security.

Oil Market Volatility Amid Supply-Demand Imbalances

Global oil markets face volatility from a surplus supply wave driven by OPEC production increases and uncertain demand amid geopolitical tensions. While sanctions disrupt Russian crude flows, oversupply pressures keep prices subdued, complicating investment and operational planning for energy companies and affecting global commodity markets.

Public Perception of US Influence

Australian public opinion shows increased concern over US interference, reflecting a nuanced view of alliance dynamics amid geopolitical tensions. This shift influences political and economic policy considerations, including defense spending and foreign investment controls, affecting Australia's strategic positioning and trade relationships in a complex international environment.

Regional Instability Impact on Trade

Ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea region, including Houthi attacks on shipping lanes and Sudanese conflict, disrupt global supply chains and increase insurance costs. These security challenges threaten Saudi Arabia's coastal tourism, logistics projects, and investor confidence, underscoring the critical need for regional stability to safeguard Vision 2030 objectives and international trade flows.

Trade Deficit and Import Surge

Thailand posted its largest trade deficit since 2023 due to a sharp rise in imports of capital goods and raw materials from China, while export growth slowed amid US tariff pressures. The trade imbalance risks undermining economic growth, pressuring the baht, and complicating monetary policy, highlighting vulnerabilities in Thailand's trade-dependent economy and the impact of global tariff regimes on competitiveness.

Economic Instability and Currency Surge

Iran faces severe economic instability marked by a sharp rise in the US dollar and gold prices, with the dollar surpassing 1.13 million rials. This surge is driven by runaway inflation, capital flight, and the reimposition of UN sanctions, exacerbating public dissatisfaction and complicating foreign trade and investment strategies.

Economic Growth and Sectoral Expansion

Egypt's economy achieved a three-year high GDP growth of 5.3% in Q1 2025/26, driven by strong performance in non-oil manufacturing, tourism, telecommunications, and financial intermediation. Private investment surged by 25.9%, signaling increased business confidence. However, the extractive sector contracted. This growth trajectory enhances Egypt's attractiveness for investors and global trade partners.

Talent Exodus and Demographic Challenges

Israel faces significant emigration of young, well-educated professionals, particularly from the tech sector, driven by domestic political turmoil and security concerns. This brain drain poses risks to innovation capacity, labor market dynamics, and long-term economic growth, challenging business operations and investment attractiveness.

Social Challenges Impacting Workforce

The opioid epidemic disproportionately affects workers in skilled trades, leading to significant economic costs and labour shortages in critical sectors like construction. This public health crisis translates into lost productivity and increased social expenditures, posing risks to workforce stability and long-term economic resilience, necessitating integrated policy responses.

US Dollar and Currency Market Volatility

The US Dollar shows mixed performance influenced by government shutdown negotiations, economic data delays, and shifting risk sentiment. Safe-haven flows and currency interventions, especially involving the yen and commodity-linked currencies, create volatility in forex markets, affecting international trade costs, capital flows, and emerging market currency stability.

Shekel Strength Amid Conflict

Since the onset of conflict in October 2023, the Israeli shekel has appreciated 17% against the US dollar, driven by reduced risk premiums following ceasefire agreements and economic stability. This currency strengthening signals investor confidence but also impacts export competitiveness and foreign investment dynamics in Israel.

Monetary Policy and Yen Depreciation Risks

The Bank of Japan faces complex policy decisions amid inflation and market pressures, with debates over interest rate hikes complicated by fiscal stimulus plans. Yen depreciation to historic lows against major currencies raises concerns about currency volatility, import costs, and investor confidence, influencing foreign exchange strategies and international trade competitiveness.

Surge in Japanese Government Bond Yields

Japanese government bond yields have reached multi-decade highs, reflecting inflationary pressures and fiscal stimulus. This surge disrupts the longstanding low-yield environment, threatens the yen carry trade, and has global repercussions by influencing US Treasury yields and international capital flows, increasing financial market volatility worldwide.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Cuts

The Bank of Israel is poised to cut benchmark interest rates after nearly two years, responding to stable inflation and economic recovery. This move aims to stimulate growth but raises concerns about banking sector profits and consumer impacts. Interest rate adjustments will affect borrowing costs, investment flows, and financial market dynamics.

Climate Change Risks to Exports

Extreme climate events threaten up to 4.5% of India's GDP by 2030, impacting export sectors like aluminium, iron, and steel. Regulatory shocks such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) pose compliance and cost challenges, especially for MSMEs, potentially disrupting supply chains and reducing global competitiveness.

Political Volatility and Election Impact

Brazil faces heightened political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 presidential election, with right-wing opposition testing new ticket pairings and ongoing judicial probes into corruption involving major political figures. This volatility could affect investor confidence, delay reforms, and complicate fiscal discipline efforts, influencing Brazil’s macroeconomic stability and foreign investment climate.

Dependence on China for Critical Materials

Germany's reliance on China for rare earths and critical raw materials remains high, with China controlling over 95% of the rare earth market. Despite geopolitical tensions and government warnings, German firms maintain deep trade and investment ties with China, posing risks to supply chain security and strategic autonomy.

Global Economic Risks of Taiwan Conflict

US congressional commissions warn that a Taiwan conflict could cause catastrophic global economic fallout, potentially wiping out up to 10% of global GDP—comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. Taiwan's integral role in advanced technology supply chains means disruptions would ripple worldwide, affecting markets, manufacturing, and geopolitical stability.

European Economic Context and Competitiveness

France's economic growth remains sluggish compared to peers like Italy, which has gained political stability. France's sovereign credit rating downgrades and higher bond yields reflect investor concerns, while Europe faces challenges in AI leadership, affecting France's relative competitiveness.

Water Crisis and Environmental Challenges

A prolonged multi-year drought combined with governmental mismanagement threatens Iran's water security, risking urban evacuations and agricultural collapse. This environmental crisis undermines economic productivity, exacerbates social unrest, and poses a systemic risk to Iran’s long-term stability and investment climate.

China's Financial Market Inflows Surge

Foreign investor interest in Chinese financial instruments has surged, with offshore investments in stocks reaching $50.6 billion in 2025, nearing post-COVID highs. Strong demand for Chinese dollar and euro bonds reflects confidence despite economic challenges. This inflow trend affects China's capital account dynamics and signals evolving global investor sentiment toward China's financial markets.

Rare Earth Minerals as Strategic Resources

Brazil emerges as a potential alternative supplier of rare earth elements amid China’s export restrictions. Rich deposits, particularly in Minas Gerais, attract foreign investment, but infrastructure and processing capabilities lag. Environmental concerns and political uncertainties pose risks to Brazil’s ambition to become a reliable global supplier.

US Government Shutdown Impact

The historic 40+ day US government shutdown in 2025 caused significant economic drag, furloughing 750,000 federal employees and disrupting services. While markets absorbed the shock with resilience, the shutdown undermined consumer confidence, delayed regulatory processes, and increased fiscal uncertainty, affecting global trade and investment sentiment. Recurrent shutdowns risk eroding US governance credibility and complicate international cooperation.

Global Market Volatility and AI Sector Impact

Thailand’s stock market is influenced by global volatility, including concerns over an AI bubble and US interest rate uncertainty. Despite short-term sell-offs, strong earnings from tech giants like Nvidia support optimism. Thai sectors such as utilities, telecoms, and tourism are expected to absorb market rotations, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global economic shifts.

Geopolitical Risk Impact on Europe

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has heightened geopolitical risks across Europe, disrupting supply chains, increasing market volatility, and dampening economic growth. A new EU-wide indicator tracks these risks domestically, revealing that Central and Eastern European countries face elevated exposure, affecting monetary policy transmission and investment strategies in the region.

Emergence of Vietnam’s Dual-City International Financial Centre

Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are developing a dual-city International Financial Centre (IFC), attracting global crypto players like Binance and Tether. Flexible regulations, fintech sandboxes, and a large crypto user base position Vietnam as a regional hub for digital assets, fostering innovation while navigating evolving regulatory frameworks.

Surge in Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Activity

Rising FDI inflows have catalyzed a surge in M&A deals, with capital contributions and share purchases increasing 45.1% YoY. Administrative reforms in Ho Chi Minh City have streamlined procedures, reducing processing times and boosting investor confidence, particularly among Japanese, Korean, and European firms, facilitating deeper market penetration and consolidation.

Persistent Weak Korean Won

South Korea is experiencing a sustained period of a weak won, with forecasts indicating exchange rates above 1,400 won per dollar through 2026. This structural currency depreciation, driven by increased outbound investments and limited catalysts for appreciation, undermines export competitiveness and raises import costs, negatively impacting corporate profit margins and domestic consumption.

Dynamic Logistics Sector Growth and Modernization

Vietnam's logistics market, valued at USD 80.65 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a 6.4% CAGR through 2034. Growth is driven by expanding manufacturing, e-commerce, and trade activities, supported by government investments in transport infrastructure. Trends include green logistics, digital technology integration, and cold chain expansion, vital for supply chain efficiency and competitiveness in global markets.

Supply Chain Diversification and New Market Development

In response to geopolitical and tariff challenges, India prioritizes diversifying trade partners and supply chains beyond traditional markets. Efforts focus on expanding exports to regions like Europe, Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America, reducing dependence on single countries for imports and exports, thereby enhancing trade resilience and mitigating risks from concentrated trade relationships.

Economic Growth and GDP Performance

Australia's Q3 GDP growth of 0.4% underperformed expectations but maintained steady per capita growth, signaling resilience. This mixed performance influences market sentiment and monetary policy, affecting currency strength and investment flows.

E-Commerce Logistics Market Expansion

Thailand's e-commerce logistics sector is rapidly expanding, valued at USD 2 billion and projected to grow with rising online retail penetration and demand for same-day delivery. Investments in automation, digital tracking, and infrastructure modernization, supported by government policies like 'Thailand 4.0,' position the country as a regional logistics hub, enhancing supply chain efficiency and cross-border trade connectivity.

Geopolitical Alignments and Regional Diplomacy

Iran’s active participation in BRICS, SCO, and EAEU reflects a strategic pivot towards Eastern alliances to counter Western pressure. This realignment enhances regional economic integration and security cooperation but also entrenches geopolitical rivalries, affecting foreign investment risk perceptions and trade dynamics.

Surge in Future-Focused FDI

India is experiencing record greenfield FDI inflows averaging $83 billion annually since 2022, primarily targeting advanced manufacturing, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, EVs, and batteries. This shift towards knowledge-intensive sectors enhances India’s integration into global value chains, bolsters economic resilience, and positions the country as a hub for future-shaping industries, attracting major investments from the US, Japan, and South Korea.

Taiwan's Semiconductor and AI Boom

Taiwan's economy is experiencing unprecedented growth driven by surging global demand for AI-related semiconductor chips, primarily produced by TSMC. This boom is propelling GDP growth toward 6%, reinforcing Taiwan's strategic importance in global tech supply chains. However, rising energy demands and currency volatility pose operational challenges for sustaining this momentum.

Trade Deficit and Export Challenges

India’s merchandise trade deficit reached a record high in October 2025 due to contracting exports amid weak global demand and surging imports, particularly gold and silver. While the US granted tariff exemptions on select agricultural products, ongoing tariff measures and geopolitical tensions continue to challenge export competitiveness, prompting government trade relief measures to support exporters and diversify markets.