Rising industrial power cost squeeze

Despite reduced load-shedding, electricity tariffs for large users reportedly rose ~970% since 2007, triggering smelter closures and weaker competitiveness. Expected further annual increases amplify pressure on mining, metals and manufacturing, accelerating self-generation and relocation decisions.

Investment security screening expands

CFIUS scrutiny and emerging outbound-investment controls increase deal uncertainty in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing. Cross-border M&A may require longer timelines, mitigation agreements, or abandonment; investors need earlier national-security due diligence and structural protections.

Cyber defense and compliance tightening

Japan is strengthening “active cyberdefense” institutions and pushing tougher security expectations, including in financial and critical infrastructure segments. Multinationals should anticipate higher incident-reporting, supplier security audits, and operational resilience requirements across Japan-based networks.

Mortgage stress and domestic demand

CMHC flags rising mortgage stress in Toronto and Vancouver; over 1.5M households have renewed at higher rates and another ~1M face renewal soon. A consumer slowdown could weaken retail, construction, and SME credit demand, while increasing counterparty and portfolio risk.

Rate-cut uncertainty, sticky inflation

With CPI around 3.4% and the Bank of England cautious, timing and depth of rate cuts remain contested. Volatile borrowing costs affect capex decisions, leveraged buyouts, real estate financing, FX expectations and consumer demand, complicating pricing and hedging strategies.

US–Indonesia reciprocal tariff reset

A new US–Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement lowers US tariffs on Indonesian goods to ~19% while Indonesia removes tariffs on most US products. Expect near-term changes in market access, compliance requirements, and competitive pressure in textiles, agribusiness, and manufacturing.

Rising carbon price on heating

Germany’s national CO₂ price increased from €55 to up to €65 per tonne in 2026, lifting costs for gas and oil heating. The trajectory supports Wärmewende investments, while impacting fuel import flows, hedging strategies, and competitiveness of fossil-based heating equipment supply chains.

Industrial overcapacity and price wars

Beijing is attempting to curb destructive competition, including in autos after January sales fell 19.5% y/y. Regulatory moves against below-cost pricing may stabilize margins but can trigger abrupt policy interventions, supplier renegotiations, and compliance investigations for both domestic and JV players.

Regional connectivity projects at risk

Strategic infrastructure tied to Iran, such as Chabahar/INSTC routes, faces uncertainty as partners reconsider funding under U.S. pressure and expiring waivers. This threatens diversification of Eurasian supply corridors, increasing reliance on other routes and reducing redundancy for time-sensitive cargo.

Nuclear expansion and export-linked cooperation

Seoul is restarting new reactors (two 1.4GW units plus a 700MW SMR) while pursuing expanded US civil nuclear rights and fuel-cycle cooperation. This reshapes electricity price expectations, industrial siting, and opportunities for EPC, components, and uranium services.

Nickel quotas tighten supply chains

Jakarta is cutting nickel ore production quotas (RKAB), including a steep reduction at Weda Bay Nickel, aiming to lift prices. Smelters may face ore shortages, raising import dependence (notably Philippines) and increasing volatility for EV-battery and stainless-steel supply chains.

Tasas, inflación y costo financiero

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% ante choques por IEPS y aranceles a importaciones chinas; además elevó pronósticos de inflación (meta 3% se desplaza a 2027). Esto encarece financiamiento, altera valuaciones y afecta coberturas cambiarias y de tasas.

Rusya yaptırımları ve uyum riski

AB’nin Rus petrolüne yönelik yaptırımları sertleştirmeyi tartışması ve rafine ürünlerde dolaylı akışları hedeflemesi, Türkiye üzerinden ticarette uyum/itibar riskini artırıyor. Bankacılık, sigorta, denizcilik ve ihracatçıların “yeniden ihracat” kontrollerini güçlendirmesi gerekebilir.

Macroeconomic recovery and rate cuts

Inflation has eased to around 1.8% with a stronger shekel, reopening scope for Bank of Israel rate cuts. Cheaper financing may support investment, yet currency strength can squeeze exporters and pricing, influencing hedging strategies and contract denomination choices.

Digital markets enforcement on platforms

The UK CMA secured proposed commitments from Apple and Google to improve app-store fairness, limit use of rivals’ non‑public data, and expand interoperability. This signals tougher UK digital regulation, affecting monetization models, developer access, and platform compliance obligations.

Energy exports and infrastructure constraints

Canada remains a major energy supplier, yet pipeline, LNG, and power-transmission buildout is politically and regulatory complex. This affects long-term contracts and project timelines. Buyers and investors should diversify routes, build flexibility into contracts, and model permitting delays.

Automotive transition and competitiveness

Germany’s auto sector warns of a “location crisis”: 72% of suppliers are delaying, cutting or relocating investments; employment fell from 833,000 (2019) to ~726,000 (2025). Weak EV demand and Chinese competition disrupt suppliers, capex and supply chains.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

Trade remedies and export barriers

Vietnam faces intensifying trade-defense actions in key markets. Example: the US imposed antidumping duties of 47.12% on Vietnamese hard empty capsules, alongside CVDs. Similar risks can spread to steel and other goods, elevating legal costs and reshaping sourcing strategies.

Trusted cloud, data sovereignty requirements

France is accelerating ‘cloud de confiance’ policies (SecNumCloud) for sensitive data and public-sector workloads, encouraging shifts away from non‑qualified providers. Multinationals face procurement constraints, data‑hosting redesign, vendor selection changes, and potential localization-related compliance costs.

China demand concentration drives volatility

China remains Brazil’s dominant trade partner: January exports to China rose 17.4% to US$6.47bn, and China takes about 72% of Brazilian iron ore exports. Commodity price swings and Chinese demand shifts directly affect revenues, shipping flows, and investment planning.

Plan masivo de infraestructura y energía

El gobierno lanzó un plan 2026‑2030 de MXN 5.6 billones (≈US$323 mil millones) y ~1,500 proyectos, con energía como rubro principal. Puede mejorar logística (puertos, trenes, carreteras) y confiabilidad energética, pero exige marcos “bancables” y certidumbre contractual.

Regulatory squeeze on stablecoin yields

US negotiations over banning stablecoin ‘interest’ or ‘rewards’ could reshape business models and market liquidity. Restrictions may push activity offshore or into bank-issued tokens, altering payment costs, on-chain treasury management, and vendor settlement options for global commerce.

West Bank escalation and sanctions

Rising settler violence, expanded Israeli operations and growing international scrutiny increase risks of targeted sanctions, legal challenges and heightened compliance screening. Multinationals must reassess counterparties, project sites and procurement to avoid exposure to human-rights-related restrictions and activism-driven disruptions.

Oil revenues squeeze and discounts

Russia’s oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to about 393 billion rubles in January, with Urals trading at steep discounts and buyers demanding wider risk premia. Falling proceeds drive tax hikes and borrowing, raising payment-risk, contract renegotiations, and counterparty resilience concerns for exporters and suppliers.

LNG export surge and costs

U.S. LNG exports hit 111 million tons in 2025 and capacity may more than double by 2029, aided by faster permitting. This supports energy security for allies but can lift U.S. gas prices, tightening margins for energy-intensive manufacturers and data centers.

State-asset sales and privatization

Government is preparing ~60 state-owned companies for transfer to the Sovereign Fund or stock-market listings, signaling deeper restructuring. This expands M&A and PPP opportunities but requires careful diligence on governance, labor sensitivities, valuation, and regulatory approvals.

Immigration tightening constrains labor

Reduced immigration and restrictive policies are linked to slower hiring and workforce shortages, affecting logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Analyses project legal immigration could fall 33–50% (1.5–2.4 million fewer entrants over four years), raising labor costs and operational risk.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

Mandatory USMCA review by July 1 is becoming contentious; Washington is openly weighing withdrawal and has threatened extreme tariffs and sector levies. Heightened uncertainty disrupts pricing, contract terms, and cross-border auto, metals, agriculture, and services supply chains.

Monetary easing amid weak growth

Bank of England is holding Bank Rate at 3.75% after a narrow 5–4 vote, but signals likely cuts from spring as inflation trends toward 2%. Shifting rate expectations affect GBP, financing costs, valuations, and hedging for UK-linked trade.

AB FTA’larının asimetrik etkisi

AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle yaptığı STA’lar, Türkiye’nin Gümrük Birliği nedeniyle tarifeleri uyarlamasına rağmen karşı pazara aynı ayrıcalıkla erişememesi sorununu büyütüyor. Örneğin AB‑Hindistan STA’sı Türkiye lehine işlemiyor; rekabet baskısı ve pazar payı riski yaratıyor.

Tech export controls tightening

Stricter semiconductor and AI export controls and aggressive enforcement are reshaping tech supply chains. Recent fines for unlicensed China shipments and stringent licensing terms for AI GPUs raise compliance costs, constrain China revenues, and accelerate ‘compute-at-home’ and redesign strategies.

Regulatory push for digital sovereignty cloud

France continues to steer sensitive workloads toward “sovereign” cloud and security certifications (e.g., SecNumCloud), affecting public procurement and regulated sectors. Non-EU hyperscalers may need partnerships or ring-fenced operations; compliance can reshape IT sourcing.

US tariff and NTB pressure

Washington is threatening to restore 25% tariffs unless Seoul delivers on a $350bn US investment pledge and eases non-tariff barriers (digital rules, agriculture, auto/pharma certification). Policy uncertainty raises pricing, compliance, and sourcing risks for exporters.

CFIUS and data-driven deal risk

Foreign acquisitions involving sensitive data and systemic assets face heightened CFIUS exposure, as seen in potential scrutiny of ETS/TOEFL due to personal data concentration and institutional role. Cross-border investors should plan for mitigation, deal delays, and valuation haircuts.

Immigration rule overhaul and labour supply

Proposals to extend settlement timelines (typically five to ten years, longer for some visa routes) plus intensified sponsor enforcement create uncertainty for employers reliant on skilled migrants, notably health and social care. Expect higher compliance costs, churn, and wage pressure.