Regulatory unpredictability and enforcement

Sector-focused campaigns and uneven local enforcement create compliance uncertainty in areas such as antitrust, national security reviews, and ESG/labor enforcement. International firms should expect faster investigations, reputational exposure, and the need for stronger internal controls and local engagement.

USMCA review and tariff brinkmanship

The mandatory USMCA review and renewed U.S. tariff threats create high uncertainty for North American supply chains, especially autos, metals and agri-food. Firms should stress-test rules-of-origin compliance, pricing, and contingency routing as policy shifts can be abrupt.

Digital sovereignty and data controls

Russia is tightening internet and data-localisation rules, throttling Telegram and moving to block WhatsApp while promoting state-backed ‘Max’. From 1 Jan 2026, services must retain messages for three years and share on request, raising surveillance, cybersecurity, and operational continuity risks for firms.

Supply chain resilience and port logistics risk

Australia’s trade-dependent sectors remain sensitive to shipping availability, port capacity and industrial relations disruptions. Any bottlenecks can raise landed costs and inventory buffers, particularly for LNG, minerals and agribusiness. Firms are prioritising diversification, nearshoring and stronger contingency planning.

Stablecoins become fiscal tool

US policy is positioning Treasury-backed stablecoins as a new buyer base for short-term bills and a lever of dollar reach. This may shift liquidity from bank deposits, alter credit availability, and create new compliance, treasury, and settlement models for multinationals.

Regulatory enforcement and raids risk

China’s security-focused regulatory climate—anti-espionage, state-secrets, and data-related enforcement—raises due-diligence and operational risk for foreign firms. Expect tighter controls on information flows, heightened scrutiny of consulting, and increased need for localized compliance and document governance.

Mining investment incentives scale-up

The Mining Exploration Enablement Program’s third round offers cash incentives up to 25% of eligible exploration spend plus wage support. Combined with aggressive licensing expansion, it accelerates critical minerals supply, raising opportunities in equipment, services, offtake, and local partnerships.

Aggressive antitrust and M&A scrutiny

FTC/DOJ enforcement remains assertive, with close review of platform, AI, and “acquihire” deals plus tougher merger analysis. Cross-border buyers face longer timelines, higher remedy demands, and greater deal-break risk, affecting investment planning, partnerships, and exit strategies.

Escalating secondary sanctions pressure

The US is tightening “maximum pressure” through new designations on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and vessels, plus threats of blanket tariffs on countries trading with Tehran. This raises compliance, banking, and counterparty risks for global firms and intermediaries.

Treasury financing and dollar volatility

Large U.S. debt issuance and signs of softer foreign Treasury demand are steepening the yield curve and adding FX uncertainty. Higher funding costs can tighten credit conditions, affect valuations, and alter hedging needs for importers, exporters, and cross-border investors.

Escalating sanctions and shadow fleet

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening on Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports, targeting 14 tankers and dozens of entities while partners like India step up interdictions. Elevated secondary-sanctions exposure raises freight, insurance, compliance costs and disruption risk for global shipping and traders.

Immigration settlement reforms and workforce risk

Home Office proposals to extend settlement timelines from five to ten-plus years could affect 1.35m legal migrants, including ~300,000 children, with retrospective application debated. Employers may face retention challenges, higher sponsorship reliance, and more complex mobility planning.

Disinflation and tight monetary policy

Annual inflation eased to 30.65% in January, but monthly CPI jumped 4.8%, underscoring sticky services and food risks. The central bank projects 2026 inflation at 15–21% and maintains a cautious stance, affecting credit costs, pricing, and demand planning.

Electricity reform and grid bottlenecks

Load-shedding has eased, but transmission expansion is the binding constraint. Eskom’s plan targets ~14,000–14,500km of new lines by 2034 at ~R440bn; slow build rates risk delaying IPP projects, raising tariffs, and constraining industrial investment.

Steel and aluminum tariff redesign

The administration is considering redesigning Section 232 downstream metal tariffs, potentially tiering rates (e.g., ~15/25/50%) and applying them to full product value. Importers of machinery, appliances, autos, and consumer goods should model margin impacts and reprice contracts quickly.

Critical minerals alliance reshaping

Canberra’s A$1.2bn Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (initially gallium, antimony, rare earths) and deeper US-led cooperation (price floors, offtakes) are accelerating non‑China supply chains, creating investment openings but higher compliance, geopolitical and pricing-policy risk for manufacturers.

Energy import dependence and LNG

Taiwan’s tight energy margins and heavy LNG reliance create acute vulnerability to maritime disruption. Under the U.S. deal, Taiwan plans US$44.4B LNG/crude purchases through 2029, underscoring strategic stockpiling, grid upgrades, and potential cost volatility for industry.

Data security and cross-border flows

China’s data-security regime continues tightening around cross-border transfers, localization, and security assessments for “important data.” Multinationals face higher compliance costs, audit exposure, and potential disruption to global IT architectures, analytics, HR systems, and cloud-based operations.

EU trade defenses and retaliation

EU countervailing duties on China-made EVs are evolving into minimum-price, quota, and EU-investment “undertakings,” while Beijing retaliates with targeted tariffs (e.g., 11.7% on EU dairy). Firms face higher compliance costs, pricing constraints, and fast-moving dispute risk.

Rising antitrust pressure on tech

U.S. antitrust enforcement is intensifying across major digital and platform markets, affecting dealmaking and operating models. DOJ is appealing remedies in the Google search monopoly case; FTC expanded an enterprise software/cloud probe into Microsoft bundling and interoperability; DOJ also widened scrutiny around Netflix conduct.

Financial compliance, post-greylist tightening

After exiting FATF greylisting and EU high-risk listing, regulators are tightening AML/CFT oversight. The FIC is moving to require richer geographic and group-structure disclosures for accountable institutions, increasing compliance workloads, KYC expectations and potential enforcement exposure for cross-border groups.

IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Policy disruption from shutdown risks

Repeated funding standoffs—recent partial shutdowns and DHS funding cliffs—delay economic data releases, create operational uncertainty for agencies affecting travel, disaster response, and cybersecurity, and inject timing risk into regulated processes and government-dependent contracts for international firms.

Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

Natural gas exports and regional deals

Israeli gas flows to Egypt have risen with pipelines reportedly at full capacity, supporting regional power and LNG dynamics. Export reliability and pricing depend on security and contract reforms in Egypt, influencing energy-intensive industries and investment in infrastructure.

استقرار النقد والتضخم والسياسة النقدية

الاحتياطيات سجلت نحو 52.59 مليار دولار بنهاية يناير 2026، مع تباطؤ التضخم إلى قرابة 10–12% واتجاه البنك المركزي لخفض الفائدة 100 نقطة أساس. تحسن الاستقرار يدعم الاستيراد والتمويل، لكن التضخم الشهري المتذبذب يبقي مخاطر التسعير والأجور مرتفعة.

Korea–US investment implementation bottlenecks

Parliament is fast-tracking a special act to operationalize Korea’s $350bn strategic investment package, while ministries set interim project-review structures. Execution pace, project bankability, and conditionality debates affect inbound/outbound capital planning, M&A timing, and supplier localization decisions.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Compliance gaps in industrial estates

Parliamentary disclosures highlighting missing mandatory investment activity reporting by major nickel operators underscore governance and oversight gaps. For multinationals, this elevates ESG, tax, and permitting due-diligence requirements, and increases exposure to audits, fines, or operational interruptions.

Semiconductor and electronics scale-up

Budget 2026 doubles electronics component incentives to ₹40,000 crore and advances ISM 2.0 to deepen design, equipment, and materials capacity. This accelerates supplier localization and India-plus-one strategies, while raising competition for talent and requiring careful IP, export-control, and vendor qualification planning.

Coupang breach escalates to ISDS

Coupang’s data-leak investigation is triggering US political pushback and investor-state dispute settlement threats under the Korea–US FTA. A prolonged legal-diplomatic fight could chill US tech investment, complicate enforcement predictability, and heighten retaliatory trade risk perceptions.

Sanctions compliance and leakage risks

Investigations show tens of thousands of sanctioned-brand cars reaching Russia via China, including German models, often reclassified as ‘zero-mileage used’. This heightens legal, reputational and enforcement risk across distributors, logistics and financing; controls must tighten.

Immigration tightening and labor supply

Policies projected to cut legal immigration by roughly 33–50% over four years could deepen labor shortages in logistics, tech, healthcare, and manufacturing. Firms may see wage pressure, slower expansion, and increased reliance on automation and offshore service delivery.

Import quotas for fuels tighten

Indonesia’s import caps are affecting private retailers, with Shell reporting work with government on 2026 fuel import quotas amid station shortages. Coupled with policy to stop diesel import permits for private stations, firms face supply disruptions, higher working capital needs, and reliance on Pertamina.

Tech export controls tightening

Stricter semiconductor and AI export controls and aggressive enforcement are reshaping tech supply chains. Recent fines for unlicensed China shipments and stringent licensing terms for AI GPUs raise compliance costs, constrain China revenues, and accelerate ‘compute-at-home’ and redesign strategies.

Trade policy alignment with US partners

Ongoing US–Taiwan trade and tariff frameworks and broader partner initiatives shape market access and rules of origin. Exporters should reassess tariff exposure, documentation, and sourcing, while investors monitor regulatory convergence in digital trade, standards, and customs facilitation.