Consolidation budgétaire et fiscalité

Le budget 2026, adopté via 49.3, comporte des mesures fiscales contestées et sécurisées devant le Conseil constitutionnel. Effets: incertitude sur fiscalité du capital et transmissions, arbitrages d’investissement, pression sur dépenses publiques et commandes.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyon aralığını %15–21’e yükseltti; Ocak yıllık enflasyon %30,7. Kademeli faiz indirimleri sürse de oynaklık riski ve kredi koşulları sıkı. Şirketler fiyatlama, sözleşme endeksleri ve finansman maliyetlerini yeniden kalibre etmeli.

Port congestion and export delays

Transnet’s operational fragility—illustrated by Cape Town container backlogs leaving roughly R1bn of fruit exports delayed—raises costs, spoilage risk and schedule uncertainty. Low global port performance rankings and equipment breakdowns drive rerouting, higher inland transport spend, and volatile lead times.

Ciclo de juros e crédito caro

Com a Selic em 15% e possível início de cortes em março, decisões seguem dependentes de inflação e câmbio. A combinação de juros altos e mercado de trabalho firme afeta financiamento, valuation e demanda, pressionando setores intensivos em capital e importadores.

Trade–security linkage in nuclear submarines

Tariff friction is delaying alliance follow-on talks on nuclear-powered submarines, enrichment, and spent-fuel reprocessing. Because trade and security are being negotiated in parallel, businesses face headline risk around dual-use controls, licensing timelines, and defense-adjacent supply chains.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

The central bank cut rates by 100 bps (deposit 19%, lending 20%) and lowered reserve requirements to 16%, aiming to support growth as inflation moderates. Funding costs may ease, yet FX sensitivity and administered-price reforms can still affect financing and demand forecasts.

EU integration regulatory convergence

EU accession-driven reforms continue to reshape regulation, competition policy, and compliance expectations. For investors, convergence improves long-term market access and standards alignment, but adds near-term legal change risk, documentation burdens, and stricter enforcement in regulated sectors.

إصدارات دولية وضغوط خدمة الدين

الحكومة تخطط لإصدار سندات دولية بنحو 2 مليار دولار خلال النصف الثاني من 2025/2026 مع هدف إبقاء الإصدارات دون 4 مليارات سنوياً. في المقابل، بلغت خدمة الدين الخارجي 38.7 مليار دولار في 2024/2025، ما يعزز مخاطر إعادة التمويل وتكلفة رأس المال.

Green hydrogen export corridors

Saudi green hydrogen is moving from ambition to execution. ACWA’s Yanbu green hydrogen/ammonia hub targets FEED completion by mid‑2026 and operations in 2030, alongside plans for a Germany ammonia corridor. This creates long-lead opportunities in EPC, shipping, storage, and offtake contracting.

EU compliance for XR biometrics

Immersive systems increasingly process eye-tracking and other biometric signals. In Finland, EU AI and data-protection compliance expectations shape product design, data localization and vendor selection, raising assurance costs but improving trust for regulated buyers in defence, healthcare and industry.

Labor shortages and mobility constraints

Reserve duty, reduced availability of non-Israeli workers, and security-related absenteeism strain construction, services, and some industrial operations. Companies should expect wage pressure, longer project timelines, and greater need for automation, subcontracting, and cross-training to maintain continuity.

Rising defence spending and procurement

Germany is accelerating rearmament with major outlays (e.g., €536m initial loitering‑munitions order within a €4.3bn framework; broader funding exceeding €100bn). This boosts defence-tech opportunities but heightens export-control, security and supply‑capacity constraints.

IMF program, refinancing pressure

Pakistan’s near-term macro path hinges on the IMF EFF/RSF reviews and continued rollovers from China, Saudi and UAE. Falling reserves (about $15.5bn) and a $1.3bn Eurobond due April 2026 elevate convertibility, payment and counterparty risk.

FX stabilization under IMF program

Record reserves (about $52.6bn) and falling inflation support a more stable pound and prospective rate cuts, anchored by IMF reviews and disbursements. However, policy slippage could revive parallel-market pressures, affecting pricing, profit repatriation, and import financing.

Baht strength and monetary easing

The Bank of Thailand signals accommodative policy and more active FX management amid baht appreciation and election-linked volatility. A potential cut toward 1.00% and tighter controls on gold-linked flows affect exporters’ margins, import costs, hedging needs and repatriation planning.

Mega-logistics projects reshape routes

Major rail and logistics projects are advancing, including the Den Chai–Chiang Rai–Chiang Khong double-track line (53% complete; opening expected 2028) and the Thai–Chinese HSR phase 1 (51.74% complete). These will alter inland freight costs and distribution strategies.

DHS funding instability and disruptions

Recurring DHS funding standoffs and partial shutdowns threaten operational continuity for TSA, FEMA reimbursements, Coast Guard readiness, and CISA cybersecurity deployments, while ICE enforcement remains funded. Businesses should anticipate travel friction, disaster-recovery payment delays, and security-service gaps.

Industrial relations and project risk

Rising union activity and expanded workplace rights are increasing operational complexity, notably in WA mining where right-of-entry requests rose ~400% in 12 months. Alongside corruption probes in construction unions, investors should price in schedule risk, bargaining costs, and governance diligence.

Property slump and policy easing

Reports indicate easing of “three red lines” developer leverage oversight, signaling stabilization intent after defaults. Yet falling prices and weak confidence constrain growth and local-government revenue, affecting demand forecasts, supplier solvency, and payment/collection risk in China operations.

China engagement versus U.S. backlash

Canada’s limited tariff adjustments with China (e.g., canola oil and EVs) are triggering U.S. political retaliation threats, including extreme tariff proposals. Firms exposed to China-linked supply chains face higher geopolitical friction, compliance scrutiny and potential forced rebalancing toward allied markets.

Policy execution and compliance environment

India continues “trust-based” tax and customs process reforms, including integrated systems and reduced litigation measures, while maintaining tighter enforcement in strategic sectors. Multinationals should expect improved digitalized compliance but uneven on-ground implementation across states and agencies.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Macroeconomic stagnation and expensive money

Growth is slowing sharply (IMF forecasts around 0.6–0.9%), while inflation and high rates persist alongside tax increases such as VAT to 22%. Tighter credit and weaker demand elevate default risk, constrain working capital, and complicate investment cases and repatriation planning.

Immigration tightening constrains labor

Reduced immigration and restrictive policies are linked to slower hiring and workforce shortages, affecting logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Analyses project legal immigration could fall 33–50% (1.5–2.4 million fewer entrants over four years), raising labor costs and operational risk.

Riesgo arancelario y T‑MEC

La política comercial de EE. UU. y la revisión del T‑MEC elevan incertidumbre para exportadores. Aranceles a autos mexicanos (25% desde 2025) ya redujeron exportaciones (~‑3% en 2025) y empleo, afectando decisiones de inversión y contratos de suministro.

Steel and aluminum tariff escalation

Higher US aluminum and steel tariffs are driving record physical premiums and import dislocations, lifting costs for autos, aerospace, construction, and packaging. Firms face increased input inflation, renegotiation of supply contracts, and pressure to qualify domestic or alternative suppliers.

Sanctions escalation and secondary tariffs

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening via new designations of tankers/entities and a threatened 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This widens compliance exposure beyond Iran-facing firms, raising legal, financing, and market-access risks across global supply chains.

Non-tariff barrier negotiations intensify

US demands faster movement on digital-platform rules, agricultural quarantine/market access, auto and pharma certifications, and mapping-data export issues. Stalled Korea–US FTA Joint Committee talks heighten regulatory risk for US and third-country firms operating in Korea and exporting onward.

Sectoral tariffs and 232 investigations

While broad emergency tariffs were curtailed, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, copper and lumber remain and may expand via new industry investigations. This sustains input-cost pressure, reshapes procurement toward compliant sources, and increases trade-remedy exposure for exporters.

War economy, fiscal pressure, interventionism

Russia’s war economy features high state direction, widening deficits, and elevated inflation/interest rates (reported 16% policy rate). Authorities may raise taxes, impose administrative controls, and steer credit toward defense priorities, increasing payment delays, contract renegotiations, and operational unpredictability for remaining investors.

LNG export surge and costs

U.S. LNG exports hit 111 million tons in 2025 and capacity may more than double by 2029, aided by faster permitting. This supports energy security for allies but can lift U.S. gas prices, tightening margins for energy-intensive manufacturers and data centers.

Internal unrest and operational disruption

January 2026 protests and a severe crackdown—reported 6,506 deaths and extended internet shutdowns—underscore heightened domestic instability. For business, the risk is workforce disruption, sudden regulatory/security restrictions, communications outages, and reputational exposure for partners operating locally or sourcing from Iran.

Financial liquidity chasing commodities

Ample liquidity amid weak real-economy returns is spilling into metals and gold trading, amplifying price volatility. With M2 growth (8.5% y/y) outpacing nominal GDP (3.9%), firms face unpredictable input costs, hedging needs, and potential administrative tightening if bubbles are suspected.

Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy

Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

Energy tariffs and circular-debt risk

Power pricing, gas availability, and circular-debt reforms directly affect industrial competitiveness. Recent tariff cuts for industry may support exports, but ongoing sector restructuring implies continued volatility in energy costs, outages, and subsidy policy—key variables for manufacturing site selection and contracts.