Defence procurement shifts to IP

Draft Defence Acquisition Procedure 2026 reweights “L1” bidding with credits for indigenous design and IP, aiming for “Owned by India” outcomes and 30–50% faster timelines. Foreign OEMs face stricter localisation, source-code/data expectations, and selective foreign-route clearances affecting partnerships and offsets.

Persistent Section 232 sector tariffs

National-security tariffs under Section 232 remain on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and select furniture products, independent of the IEEPA ruling. These targeted levies reshape sourcing and nearshoring decisions, complicate automotive/metal supply chains, and sustain retaliation risk from partners.

Red Sea security and Suez reliability

Shipping lines continue to oscillate between Trans-Suez and Cape routes as Red Sea risks persist, undermining schedule reliability. Even partial diversions materially affect Egypt’s foreign-currency earnings and global supply chains, raising freight costs, transit times, and insurance premiums.

Dış finansman ihtiyacı ve kırılganlık

Yetkililer brüt dış finansman ihtiyacının GSYH’ye oranının ~%20,3 uzun dönem ortalamasından 2025’te ~%15’e gerilediğini vurguluyor. Buna karşın jeopolitik şoklar ve enerji fiyatları fonlama koşullarını sertleştirebilir; yeniden finansman riski artar.

India pivot and CEPA acceleration

Canada is rebuilding India ties and restarting comprehensive trade talks, with reported plans for a 10-year C$2.8B uranium supply deal and broader cooperation in AI, energy and critical minerals. Successful progress would diversify market access, but diaspora-security sensitivities can disrupt momentum.

Energía y combustibles: riesgo operativo

Casos de robo/contrabando de combustibles vinculados al crimen organizado y sanciones financieras elevan riesgos de abastecimiento, compliance y reputación. La energía sigue siendo sector sensible; interrupciones o costos de combustible impactan transporte, manufactura intensiva y contratos logísticos.

Compliance tightening after greylist exit

Following removal from the FATF grey list, authorities are intensifying tax and financial-crime compliance, including transfer pricing scrutiny and illicit trade enforcement. This improves market integrity and banking access, but raises audit, documentation, and customs-compliance costs for multinationals.

Green transition and carbon markets

Thailand is scaling climate finance and market infrastructure: TFEX can list carbon-credit/allowance derivatives, and IEAT secured a $100m World Bank loan to fund renewables and sell ~1m tCO2e credits. Carbon pricing readiness will affect industrial site selection and operating costs.

ANPD vira agência reguladora forte

A ANPD ganhou status de agência reguladora, com mais autonomia para normatizar e fiscalizar a LGPD e o “ECA Digital”. A mudança tende a elevar exigências de governança de dados, incident response e compliance, com impacto direto em plataformas, e-commerce e BPOs.

Logistics and rail megaproject buildup

Government is restructuring Vietnam Railways into a national railway group to deliver major corridors including North–South high-speed rail and Lao Cai–Hanoi–Hai Phong links. Over time this can cut inland logistics costs, but construction timelines and land issues add execution risk.

Tariff escalation and policy volatility

The administration is normalizing broad import surcharges (10% under Section 122, potentially 15%) while teeing up expanded Section 232/301 actions. This raises landed-cost uncertainty, complicates contract pricing, and accelerates friend‑shoring and relocation decisions across sectors.

Agenda ESG e risco Amazônia

Pressão regulatória e de investidores sobre desmatamento e rastreabilidade na cadeia agro-mineral continua elevando due diligence, cláusulas contratuais e risco reputacional. A proximidade de COP30 e instrumentos de carbono reforçam exigências de compliance socioambiental para acesso a mercados.

China exposure and de-risking

Germany’s export model faces a sharper ‘China shock’: imports rise while market access and competition concerns grow. Business groups cite intervention and uneven competition; dependence on rare earths persists. Expect tougher screening, diversification, and higher supply-chain resilience costs.

Export controls and AI chip containment

US export controls on advanced AI semiconductors are tightening amid reports of diversion and alleged China access to restricted chips. Expect greater end-use scrutiny, licensing delays, and expanded controls on cloud, data centers, and AI model-related supply chains affecting global tech operations.

Property downturn and demand drag

Housing prices keep falling (62/70 cities down; -3.1% y/y, -0.4% m/m), sustaining weak sentiment and deflation risk. Slower consumption affects luxury, retail, services, and B2B demand, while developers’ stress raises counterparty and project-completion risks.

Large infrastructure spend and PPP pipeline

Government plans about R1.07 trillion over three years for transport, energy and water, with revised PPP rules and infrastructure bonds. This creates opportunities for EPC, finance and suppliers, but execution risk, procurement disputes, and governance capacity remain key constraints.

Minerais críticos e capital estrangeiro

O Brasil acelera projetos de minerais críticos: a Serra Verde obteve empréstimo de US$565 milhões da DFC, com opção de participação minoritária dos EUA, e Minas Gerais concedeu incentivo fiscal (até 18%) para projetos de nióbio/terras raras em Araxá. Impulsiona cadeias não‑China.

Industrial policy and localization incentives

US industrial policy—clean energy and advanced manufacturing incentives—continues to steer investment toward domestic production and allied supply chains. Local-content rules and subsidy eligibility criteria can disadvantage offshore producers while encouraging US siting, JV structures, and retooling.

Gümrük rejimi değişimi ve e-ticaret

6 Şubat 2026’da 30 avro altı basitleştirilmiş gümrük uygulaması kaldırıldı; tüm gönderilerde detaylı beyan zorunlu. Temu, yerel ithalatçı modeliyle geri döndü ve 580 TL alt limit koydu. De minimis reformu KOBİ ithalatçıları, e-ticaret lojistiği ve maliyet yapısını kalıcı değiştiriyor.

Rezervler güçlü, dış borç baskısı

TCMB brüt rezervleri Ocak sonunda 218,2 milyar $ ile rekor görüp 20 Şubat haftasında 206,1 milyar $’a indi. Buna karşılık 1 yıl içinde vadesi gelecek kısa vadeli dış borç 225,4 milyar $. Yenileme maliyeti ve likidite riski artıyor.

War-risk insurance and de-risking

War-risk coverage is shifting from pilots to structured frameworks, including state support via the Export Credit Agency and growing DFI participation. Improved insurance enables capex and trade finance, but pricing, exclusions and claims processes still constrain project bankability.

US–China tariff volatility returns

US court-driven tariff reshuffles and temporary Section 122 surcharges create unstable landed costs for China-linked trade. Firms face recurring renegotiations, shipment front-loading, and sudden retaliation risk, complicating contracting, pricing, and inventory planning across transpacific supply chains.

Defense build-up and dual-use constraints

Japan’s expanded defense posture and record budgets intersect with tightening regional controls on dual-use technologies. Companies in aerospace, electronics, materials, and shipbuilding face higher scrutiny on end-use, cybersecurity, and data handling; offsets and trusted supply chains gain value.

Critical minerals export controls

Beijing is tightening and selectively pausing export controls on gallium, germanium and rare earths, with licensing delays driving shortages (yttrium prices up ~60% since November). Multinationals face input volatility, compliance risk, and accelerated diversification/stockpiling pressures.

USMCA review and North America frictions

USMCA’s 2026 review is becoming a leverage point for tighter rules of origin, anti-transshipment measures, and possible sectoral tariffs on autos, metals, and more. Firms using integrated US-Canada-Mexico supply chains face compliance, sourcing, and investment-hold risks.

Domestic energy rationing threat

To protect domestic supply, Egypt paused LNG exports via Idku (≈350 mmcfd) and curtailed regional pipeline exports, prioritizing electricity generation. Any return of load shedding would disrupt manufacturing output, cold chains, and logistics, while higher fuel-oil substitution raises emissions and costs.

LNG mega-projects debottlenecking push

Proyek LNG Abadi Masela (US$20,9–21 miliar; 9,5 mtpa LNG) dipercepat lewat satgas debottlenecking, relaksasi TKDN, dan percepatan izin; tender EPCI/SURF berjalan, FID ditarget 2027. Ketidakpastian kompensasi lahan, AMDAL, dan biaya konstruksi tetap risiko utama.

Sanctions compliance and trade diplomacy

US tariff and sanctions signalling around Russian oil purchases creates material uncertainty for exporters and investors. India secured temporary relief via an interim trade framework and OFAC licence, but legal clarity on sanctioned counterparties remains murky, elevating banking, insurance, and contracting risk.

Vision 2030 spending recalibration

PIF is resetting its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects like NEOM’s The Line amid fiscal pressure from lower oil prices. Investors should expect shifting procurement pipelines, timelines and counterparties across giga-project supply chains.

EU and IMF funding conditionality

A €90bn EU support loan and a new four-year IMF EFF (about $8.1bn) anchor macro stability but are tied to governance and reform benchmarks. Any slippage can delay disbursements, affect FX stability, and squeeze public procurement payments.

Outbound investment restrictions

Treasury’s outbound investment program restricts or requires notification for certain US investments in Chinese-linked AI, semiconductors and quantum sectors. This constrains JV, VC and M&A strategies, increases diligence burdens, and may accelerate friend-shoring of critical technologies.

Cybersecurity and retaliation risk

China’s restrictions on foreign cybersecurity vendors and the chilling effect on attribution highlight regulatory and political exposure. Firms should anticipate procurement bans, inspections, data-access limits, and heightened espionage risk, requiring stronger segmentation, incident response and China-specific controls.

Reconstruction pipeline and funding gap

RDNA5 estimates US$587.7bn recovery needs for 2026–2035, with US$15.25bn priority for 2026 and a ~US$9.48bn gap. This creates large opportunities in transport, energy, and housing, but demands robust procurement controls and risk-sharing structures.

Corporate governance and capital efficiency

Regulators and the TSE are revising the governance code to push boards to deploy large cash balances into growth investment. Toyota is considering a ~¥3 trillion cross‑shareholding unwind. These shifts can catalyze buybacks, M&A, and improved foreign investor returns.

Energy export force majeure risk

Israel’s offshore gas exports face heightened disruption risk during regional conflict; recent force majeure halted roughly 1.1 bcf/d to Egypt. This raises counterparty and price risk for regional buyers and affects petrochemicals, power costs, and investment decisions tied to Eastern Mediterranean energy flows.

Semiconductor supply-chain fragility

Beyond chips themselves, Korea faces upstream dependencies amplified by regional conflict: over 97% of bromine imports reportedly come from Israel, and helium supply is tied to Qatar LNG output. Any disruption raises fab uptime risk, inspection-equipment delays, and costs.