T-MEC revisión y riesgo salida

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC antes del 1 de julio elevó la incertidumbre: Trump evalúa retirarse y EE.UU. exige cambios en reglas de origen, minerales críticos y antidumping. El riesgo de aranceles alteraría planes de inversión, precios y cadenas norteamericanas.

State-asset sales and listings

Government plans to restructure 60 state firms—40 to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and 20 toward stock-market listing—to widen private-sector participation. This creates M&A and partnership opportunities but requires careful diligence on governance, valuation, and regulatory approvals.

Fiscal stimulus versus debt sustainability

Takaichi’s coalition is pushing tax relief (notably a proposed two‑year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax) alongside spending plans, while IMF warns against fiscal loosening given high debt and rising interest costs. Policy mix uncertainty can move JGB yields, FX, and domestic demand.

Energy security: LNG and nuclear

Japan is locking in long-term LNG supply—e.g., JERA’s 27-year, 3 mtpa deal with Qatar from 2028 and deeper US energy-linked investment frameworks—while accelerating reactor restarts. This reshapes fuel procurement, power-price risk, and emissions strategies for heavy industry and data centers.

Energy import diversification to US

Pertamina menandatangani MoU pasokan light crude dan kontrak LPG 2026 dengan Hartree dan Phillips 66, total LPG sekitar 2,2 juta metrik ton. Bersama komitmen ART membeli energi AS, ini menggeser pola impor dari pemasok tradisional, berdampak pada harga, logistik, dan peluang trading/penyimpanan regional.

Financial conditions and liquidity volatility

Interbank rates spiked before easing (overnight near 8.5% after 17–17.5%), highlighting liquidity sensitivity and potential pass-through to loan/deposit costs. Off-balance-sheet guarantees are also growing. Foreign investors should stress-test funding, hedging, and counterparty risk for Vietnam operations.

Mining policy and investment climate

Mining remains central to exports but investment is constrained by regulatory uncertainty, permitting bottlenecks, and shifting BEE expectations. South Africa’s policy perception ranking is weak (70/82). Reforms that improve licensing certainty would unlock capital for critical minerals and export growth.

IMF-backed macro stabilization push

IMF board review could unlock about $2.3bn, reinforcing Egypt’s shift to exchange-rate flexibility and fiscal consolidation. Record reserves near $52.6bn and easing inflation support confidence, but reforms can still trigger price adjustments and policy volatility for investors.

AB Yeşil Mutabakat ve SKDM baskısı

AB’ye ihracatın yaklaşık %42’si nedeniyle SKDM/Yeşil Mutabakat uyumu kritik. Sanayi çevreleri uyum gecikirse pazar kaybı riskine dikkat çekiyor. Karbon raporlama, enerji verimliliği ve düşük karbon tedarik şartları; çelik, çimento, alüminyum ve kimyada maliyet/sertifikasyon yükü getiriyor.

Secondary pressure on Iran trade

Expanded maximum-pressure measures—new sanctions on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and proposals for broad punitive tariffs on countries trading with Iran—raise exposure for shippers, insurers, banks, and traders, increasing due‑diligence costs and disrupting energy and commodity logistics routes.

Sanctions compliance incentives harden

OFSI now states penalties can be reduced up to 30% for self-reporting and cooperation. For online investing firms with cross-border clients, stronger screening, escalation and audit trails become strategic necessities as UK sanctions enforcement intensity rises.

Critical minerals investment acceleration

Canberra is fast-tracking critical minerals mining and midstream processing to diversify non-China supply chains. The new prospectus highlights 49 mines and 29 processing projects, backed by a A$1.2bn strategic reserve and a A$4bn facility, reshaping sourcing and JV decisions.

Semiconductor reshoring pressure and geopolitics

Washington is pushing Taiwan to expand U.S. chip capacity (discussions of shifting 40% were rejected as ‘impossible’), while Taiwan pledges up to US$250B investment. This drives multi‑site manufacturing strategies, tech‑transfer sensitivities, and customer qualification across fabs, packaging, and equipment.

Infrastructure works disrupt logistics corridors

Large-scale Deutsche Bahn renewals and signalling upgrades are causing multi-month closures, with wider EU freight impacts on the Scandinavia–Mediterranean corridor. Congestion and modal shifts raise lead times and costs; shippers should diversify routes, build buffers, and lock capacity early.

Banking isolation and AML/FATF constraints

Iran’s limited correspondent banking access and heightened AML risk—reinforced by FATF-related restrictions—constrain trade finance, L/Cs, and settlement options. Firms may rely on costly intermediaries or shadow channels, elevating fraud, seizure, and compliance risk for global groups.

Escalating sanctions and shadow fleet

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening on Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports, targeting 14 tankers and dozens of entities while partners like India step up interdictions. Elevated secondary-sanctions exposure raises freight, insurance, compliance costs and disruption risk for global shipping and traders.

Energy grid attacks, rationing risk

Sustained missile and drone strikes are damaging transmission lines, substations and thermal plants, triggering nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce load. Expect operational downtime, higher generator/backup costs, constrained production schedules, and rising insurance/security requirements.

US–Taiwan tariff pact reset

The newly signed US–Taiwan reciprocal trade deal lowers US tariffs on Taiwan to 15% and has Taiwan remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods. It reshapes sourcing, pricing, compliance, and market-entry strategies across electronics, machinery, autos, and agriculture.

Inestabilidad social y riesgo regulatorio

Las protestas recurrentes y respuestas de seguridad elevan el riesgo operativo: cierres de internet, restricciones a apps, mayor vigilancia y cambios normativos rápidos. Esto afecta logística urbana, continuidad de negocios, ciberseguridad y cumplimiento de datos, complicando operaciones de filiales y partners.

Semiconductor reshoring pressure intensifies

Washington is pressing for major Taiwan chip relocation (public 40% target), linking future tariffs and Section 232 outcomes to US investment. TSMC’s US build-out and Taiwan pushback create strategic uncertainty for capacity planning, supplier localization, and long-term pricing.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Sanctions tightening and compliance spillovers

EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands maritime services bans, shadow‑fleet listings, bank designations, anti‑circumvention tools, and export/import controls. Firms operating in Ukraine must strengthen counterparty screening, shipping due diligence, and re‑export controls to avoid violations.

FX regime and liquidity risks

Despite stronger reserves, businesses still face exposure to FX volatility, repatriation timing, and episodic liquidity squeezes as reforms deepen. Pricing, hedging, and local sourcing strategies remain critical, especially for import-intensive sectors and foreign-funded projects.

New fees, taxes, and compliance load

Egypt continues updating VAT and tax administration and adding port/terminal charges (e.g., inspection fees). Combined with evolving customs requirements such as mandatory Advance Cargo Information for air freight, compliance costs and penalties risks rise for importers and logistics providers.

US tariffs hit German exports

New US tariff measures are reducing German competitiveness: exports to the US fell 9.3% in 2025 to ~€147bn and the bilateral surplus narrowed to €52.2bn. Firms should reassess pricing, localization and route-to-market for North America.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

Ports capacity expansion and logistics resilience

DP World’s London Gateway surpassed 3m TEU in 2025 (+52%), with further all‑electric berths and rail investments underway, strengthening UK container capacity. While positive for importers, shifting freight patterns and carrier rate volatility can still disrupt cost forecasting.

Dados e regulação digital (LGPD)

A ANPD foi transformada em agência reguladora, com autonomia e nova carreira de fiscalização, elevando probabilidade de enforcement. Para multinacionais, isso aumenta exigências de governança de dados, contratos com terceiros, transferências internacionais e resposta a incidentes, influenciando custos de compliance e reputação.

Trade remedies and export barriers

Vietnam faces intensifying trade-defense actions in key markets. Example: the US imposed antidumping duties of 47.12% on Vietnamese hard empty capsules, alongside CVDs. Similar risks can spread to steel and other goods, elevating legal costs and reshaping sourcing strategies.

Maquila/IMMEX bajo presión competitiva

El sector maquilador enfrenta menor competitividad y proyectos en pausa por la revisión del T‑MEC. Se reportan 672 programas IMMEX cancelados y casi 600.000 empleos perdidos; aranceles a insumos asiáticos (25–50%) y certificaciones lentas dificultan sustitución de importaciones.

China trade frictions resurface

Australia’s anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel (10% plus earlier 35–113% duties) raise retaliation risks across iron ore, beef and education services. Firms should stress-test China exposure, diversify markets and monitor WTO disputes and safeguard-style measures.

China trade deal and market pivot

China is offering selected duty-free access and investment/technology-transfer commitments, reinforcing China as a top trade partner. This can boost minerals, agriculture and components exports, but may deepen dependency, invite Western scrutiny, and intensify local industry competition.

Talent constraints and mobility reforms

Persistent shortages in high-skill engineering and digital roles are pushing Taiwan to expand pathways for foreign professionals and longer-term residence. For multinationals, competition for talent will elevate wage pressure, retention costs, and the strategic value of training, automation, and global staffing models.

Infraestrutura portuária e concessões

Portos movimentaram recorde de 1,4 bilhão de toneladas em 2025 (+6,1%), com contêineres +7,2%. Leilões e autorizações somaram investimentos bilionários. Para comércio exterior, melhora capacidade e reduz gargalos, mas exige gestão de tarifas, regulação e SLAs logísticos.

مسار صندوق النقد والإصلاحات

مراجعات برنامج صندوق النقد تركز على الانضباط المالي، توسيع القاعدة الضريبية، وإدارة مخاطر المالية العامة. التقدم أو التعثر ينعكس مباشرة على ثقة المستثمرين، تدفقات العملة الأجنبية، وتوافر التمويل، مع حساسية اجتماعية قد تؤخر قرارات تحرير الأسعار والدعم.

Skilled-visa uncertainty and delays

H-1B tightening—$100,000 fees, enhanced social-media vetting, and India consular interview backlogs reportedly pushing stamping to 2027—raises operational risk for U.S.-based tech, healthcare and R&D staffing. Companies may shift work offshore or redesign mobility programs.