Trade policy shifts and tariff shocks

A reported 30% US tariff shock and uncertainty around preferential access increase market-diversification pressure. Government export support desks and AfCFTA routing are growing in relevance, influencing pricing, rules‑of‑origin planning, and near‑term investment decisions in export sectors.

Banking isolation and AML/FATF constraints

Iran’s limited correspondent banking access and heightened AML risk—reinforced by FATF-related restrictions—constrain trade finance, L/Cs, and settlement options. Firms may rely on costly intermediaries or shadow channels, elevating fraud, seizure, and compliance risk for global groups.

Broadening sanctions compliance burden

Expanded “maximum pressure” sanctions, including new designations against Iran’s shadow fleet and facilitators, raise exposure to secondary sanctions, shipping disruptions and banking de-risking. Energy, maritime, commodities and trade-finance players need tighter screening, routing controls, and contract clauses.

Trade-Finance And GST Formalisation

GST receipts rose to about ₹1.83 lakh crore in February, with import IGST up 17.2% versus 5.3% domestic growth, signalling import-led buoyancy and tighter compliance. Faster refunds and digital enforcement improve formalisation, but raise audit, documentation and cashflow discipline demands.

Fiscal consolidation and sovereign risk

Markets anticipate a 2026 budget that sustains consolidation, aided by commodity-linked revenue overperformance. Analysts project deficits narrowing toward ~3.5% of GDP (FY2026/27) and bond yields around 8%. Credible fiscal anchors support lower risk premia and financing conditions for investors.

Climate policy and carbon-cost competitiveness

Canada’s evolving carbon pricing, methane rules, and clean-fuel regulations affect operating costs in energy, heavy industry, and logistics. Firms exporting to carbon-regulating markets must manage embedded-emissions data, adjust pricing, and prioritize decarbonization investments to protect margins and market access.

Export growth targets versus headwinds

Vietnam targets US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16%), after a 2025 record US$475bn and total trade over US$930bn. Heavy reliance on foreign-invested exporters and imported inputs increases vulnerability to demand swings, logistics shocks, and tighter standards.

Hormuz shock hits energy costs

Escalating Israel–Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption are pushing oil, LNG, freight, and war-risk insurance costs higher. Thailand has ~60–61 days of oil reserves, froze diesel below Bt30 briefly, and is sourcing US/West Africa crude—raising operating costs and inflation risk.

Defense-budget gridlock affects deterrence

Domestic political standoffs over a proposed NT$1.25 trillion multi‑year defense package and expiring US LOA timelines risk delaying key capabilities. Heightened scrutiny from Washington can influence trade/investment mood, supplier confidence, and operational continuity assumptions in Taiwan.

Regulação do mercado de carbono

O SBCE avança com regulamentação da Lei 15.042, normas infralegais previstas até dezembro de 2026 e etapas de MRV/registro até operação plena por volta de 2031. Impacta custos industriais, requisitos de reporte e competitividade em exportações expostas a políticas climáticas.

Industrial policy and localization incentives

US industrial policy—clean energy and advanced manufacturing incentives—continues to steer investment toward domestic production and allied supply chains. Local-content rules and subsidy eligibility criteria can disadvantage offshore producers while encouraging US siting, JV structures, and retooling.

Strategic transport assets under scrutiny

Proposed sale of ZIM to Hapag-Lloyd (~$3.5–4bn) triggered strikes and government review via a “golden share.” Heightened state intervention risk in logistics and critical infrastructure could affect foreign M&A approvals, continuity planning, and emergency supply obligations.

Labor constraints and mobilization effects

Military mobilization, displacement, and infrastructure damage tighten labor availability and raise wage and retention pressures in key sectors. International firms should expect execution delays, higher HSE and HR costs, and greater reliance on automation, remote operations, and cross-border staffing.

Green hydrogen export ecosystem emerging

NEOM’s green hydrogen project, reported as a ~$8.4bn build with 2026 operational targets, underpins Saudi ambitions in clean-energy exports. For industry, it signals future demand for renewable EPC, electrolyzers, ports and offtake contracts, alongside evolving standards, certification and procurement localization.

Fiscal strain and reform risk

France’s 2026 budget passed amid political fragility, with deficits around 5% of GDP and debt near 117%+. Rising borrowing sensitivity increases tax and spending-change risk, affecting investment planning, public procurement pipelines, and consumer demand outlook.

Immigration tightening pressures labor supply

Crackdowns on illegal immigration and prospective H‑1B prevailing-wage hikes raise labor costs and constrain hiring in tech, healthcare and services. Firms should reassess location strategy, automation plans, and visa-dependent staffing models while preparing for slower onboarding and compliance checks.

Investment screening and deal friction

CFIUS continues expanding process efficiency and scrutiny (e.g., Known Investor Program consultations) alongside broader national-security posture. Cross-border M&A timelines may lengthen for sensitive assets (data, critical infrastructure, dual-use tech), raising break fees, financing costs, and disclosure burdens.

Green transition and carbon markets

Thailand is scaling climate finance and market infrastructure: TFEX can list carbon-credit/allowance derivatives, and IEAT secured a $100m World Bank loan to fund renewables and sell ~1m tCO2e credits. Carbon pricing readiness will affect industrial site selection and operating costs.

Cyber retaliation against infrastructure

Iranian-aligned cyber actors are expected to intensify disruptive and destructive operations against U.S. and allied critical infrastructure, ports, airlines, finance, and industrial systems. Heightened alert conditions increase downtime and regulatory exposure, with spillovers via suppliers and managed-service providers.

OPEC+ policy and oil volatility

Saudi-led OPEC+ decisions are shifting amid Iran conflict risks, with an April hike of 137,000 bpd and possible larger increase discussed. Saudi exports already rose. Resulting price swings affect energy costs, shipping insurance, inflation, and project economics.

LNG buildout and gas transition

Vietnam is scaling LNG to reduce domestic gas decline and support industry. PV Gas is advancing 1–3 mtpa Bac Trung Bo LNG (Phase 1 around 2029–2030) and investing >VND 100 trillion through 2030. LNG infrastructure reshapes fuel costs, contracting, and port logistics.

EU market integration and regulation

Ukraine is deepening alignment with EU rules and seeking accelerated accession, but EU capitals resist fast-track timelines. Progressive integration could expand single-market access (transport, digital, customs) while increasing compliance burdens, audit requirements, and regulatory change velocity.

Clean-tech industrial subsidies scale-up

The European Commission approved a €1.1bn French tax-credit scheme to expand cleantech manufacturing capacity through 2028. This boosts incentives for batteries, renewables components and hydrogen supply chains, but may heighten state-aid competition and localization requirements.

War-driven fiscal and supply reorientation

Russia’s war economy prioritizes defense output and logistics resilience, while export patterns concentrate on China, India and Turkey (around 93% of seaborne crude). This reorientation changes market access, increases geopolitical conditionality in trade, and creates sudden regulatory barriers for Western firms.

Data-centre boom strains power

Thailand is positioning as a regional data-centre hub: BOI approved seven projects worth over THB96bn, with 36 projects totaling THB728bn in 2025. Egat is investing THB31bn to expand EEC transmission capacity, making electricity access a key site-selection constraint.

Defense-industrial expansion and partnerships

Ukraine’s defense sector is scaling and partnering with EU/US firms, including joint ventures abroad and localized production. This creates opportunities in drones, electronics, and dual-use supply chains, while tightening export-control compliance and increasing targeting and cyber risks.

US Investment Pledge Execution

Seoul is accelerating a US$350bn U.S.-bound investment package, including energy and power infrastructure projects, to preserve preferential tariff terms and alliance goodwill. Implementation pace, domestic legislation, and project selection will shape Korean firms’ U.S. footprint and capital allocation.

Inestabilidad social y riesgo regulatorio

Las protestas recurrentes y respuestas de seguridad elevan el riesgo operativo: cierres de internet, restricciones a apps, mayor vigilancia y cambios normativos rápidos. Esto afecta logística urbana, continuidad de negocios, ciberseguridad y cumplimiento de datos, complicando operaciones de filiales y partners.

Disaster and infrastructure resilience planning

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather keeps business-continuity a board priority; government frameworks allow emergency energy supply requests and logistics reprioritization. Multinationals should diversify suppliers, validate tier-2/3 dependencies, and stress-test port and warehousing routes.

Energy import dependence and LNG surge

Taiwan’s trade deal embeds large 2025–2029 purchase commitments, including about US$44.4B in LNG/crude and US$25.2B in power-grid equipment. This signals accelerated energy-security investment but reinforces import exposure, affecting electricity costs, PPAs, and industrial siting decisions.

Industrial localization incentives expansion

A 2026 decree broadens Investment Law Article 11 incentives, offering 50% (Sector A) or 30% (Sector B) tax deductions on investment costs over seven years, capped at 80% of paid-in capital. It targets autos/EVs, appliances components, chemicals, and SCZone.

Battery storage tariff reform

Circular 62/2025 (effective 26 Jan 2026) introduces a two-part tariff for battery energy storage, paying for availability and delivery. This bankable revenue model can unlock private capital, reduce renewable curtailment, and improve grid stability—benefiting energy-intensive manufacturing and green procurement.

Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Canada continues tightening Russia-related sanctions, including measures targeting shadow-fleet shipping and lowering the Russian crude price cap. Multinationals face heightened screening of counterparties, vessels, and cargo documentation, plus higher legal and operational costs for trade finance, insurance, and logistics.

Regulatory shocks in trade compliance

Abrupt food-safety enforcement under Decree 46 stranded over 700 consignments (about 300,000 tonnes) and left more than 1,800 containers stuck at Cat Lai port, highlighting implementation risk. Importers and manufacturers should build buffer inventories and contingency routing into supply chains.

Mining policy and investment climate

Mining remains central to exports but investment is constrained by regulatory uncertainty, permitting bottlenecks, and shifting BEE expectations. South Africa’s policy perception ranking is weak (70/82). Reforms that improve licensing certainty would unlock capital for critical minerals and export growth.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement tightening

EU and Ukrainian sanctions broaden to banks, metals, chemicals, maritime services and shadow-fleet actors, while enforcement targets third-country facilitators. Businesses must strengthen screening, end-use controls and maritime due diligence to avoid secondary exposure and shipment delays.