Mission Grey Daily Brief - December 09, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The toppling of the Syrian regime has far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and global alliances, with Russia and Iran seen as "losers" and the U.S., Turkey, and Israel as beneficiaries. President-elect Donald Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, urging Russia's Vladimir Putin to negotiate with Volodymyr Zelensky, but his arrival in Washington in January is expected to shift Ukraine policy and end military aid. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are under pressure, with neutralizing Iran a common objective for Israel and America. Canada's underpopulation risk is exacerbated by Trump's tariff threats, while France and Germany face economic and political turmoil, with the euro's value expected to decline.

Syria's Regime Change and Global Implications

The fall of the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad has significant global consequences. Rebel forces, including the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, seized key cities and claimed the capital, Damascus. Assad fled to Russia, marking a major shift in the Middle East.

Russia and Iran are viewed as losers, as Assad's ousting weakens their regional influence. The U.S., Turkey, and Israel, on the other hand, are seen as beneficiaries, with potential boosts to their global standing. Analysts caution about the possibility of further bloodshed and a power vacuum in Syria, given the country's history of civil war and competing factions.

Trump's Ceasefire Call and Ukraine's Future

President-elect Donald Trump has publicly urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an immediate ceasefire with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky. This call comes amid Syria's regime change, which has global implications.

Trump's arrival in Washington in January is expected to shift Ukraine policy, potentially ending military aid. This shift could benefit Russia if Ukraine loses Western support. Zelensky has emphasized the need for a just and robust peace, while Trump has expressed his closeness to Putin and called for China's assistance.

Tariff Threats and Economic Turmoil

Canada's underpopulation risk is exacerbated by Trump's tariff threats, which could significantly impact its economy. Canada's trade reliance on the U.S. and lack of domestic consumer backstop make it vulnerable to tariffs. Bloomberg's analysis predicts a 20-25% tariff would reduce Canada's net exports by a third.

France and Germany face economic and political challenges. France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned due to political divisions, leaving the country without a fiscal budget or government. Business leaders are concerned about uncertainty, hindering planning and hiring. Germany, Europe's largest economy, is politically unstable and facing competition from China.

Geopolitical Tensions and Sanctions

Neutralizing Iran is a shared goal for Israel and America, according to Gen. Jack Keane. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are under pressure, as NSA Jake Sullivan notes. The UK has extended sanctions on gold trade to curb Russia's war funding in Ukraine. Assets of individuals linked to gold smuggling and Russian gold purchases have been frozen.

President-elect Trump's "America First" agenda prioritizes U.S. interests and targets free-riding allies. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has ranked U.S. allies' risks of facing tariffs based on defense spending, trade balance, anti-U.S. policies, and resistance to China.