Electricity tariffs and affordability squeeze

Large-user electricity tariffs are cited as up ~970% since 2007, with further hikes expected, while government plans a revised pricing policy in 2026. Higher operating costs and energy poverty pressures can hit mining, manufacturing margins, and project bankability.

Energy export rerouting and discounts

Crude and product flows keep shifting toward China, India and Türkiye, often at deeper discounts; Urals’ Baltic discount to Brent widened to about $28/bbl. Buyers face tightening due diligence, price-cap uncertainty, and higher freight/ice costs, impacting refining margins and supply security.

Defense-tech boom and controls

War-driven demand is accelerating Israel’s defense-tech ecosystem (defense startups reportedly rising from 160 to 312). This supports growth but increases scrutiny of dual-use exports, compliance burdens, and reputational considerations for partners, investors, and supply chains touching defense.

AB Gümrük Birliği güncellemesi

İş dünyası, Türkiye–AB Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu ve vize kolaylığı çağrısını artırıyor. AB’nin üçüncü ülkelerle STA’ları (ör. Hindistan, MERCOSUR) Türkiye’de ticaret sapması ve rekabet baskısı yaratıyor; tedarik zinciri konumlandırmayı etkiliyor.

Port, logistics and infrastructure expansion

Vietnam is accelerating seaport and hinterland upgrades to reduce logistics bottlenecks: planned seaport investment to 2030 totals 359.5 trillion VND (US$13.8bn). Rising vessel calls and container throughput support supply-chain resilience, but construction timelines and local congestion remain risks.

Manufacturing incentives and localization

India continues industrial policy via PLI-style incentives and strategic missions spanning electronics, textiles, chemicals, and MSMEs. International manufacturers should evaluate local value-add requirements, supplier development, and potential WTO challenges, especially in autos and clean tech.

LNG expansion and energy pivot

Canada’s LNG build-out, led by B.C. projects and fast-track federal processes, is reshaping energy logistics and export optionality to Asia. Rising gas royalties contrast with stressed forestry, affecting regional investment opportunities, infrastructure demand, and industrial power pricing.

Outbound investment restrictions

Treasury’s outbound investment program restricts or requires notification for certain US investments in Chinese-linked AI, semiconductors and quantum sectors. This constrains JV, VC and M&A strategies, increases diligence burdens, and may accelerate friend-shoring of critical technologies.

China tech controls tightening

US export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI systems continue to tighten, with enforcement scrutiny over alleged chip diversion to China. Multinationals must redesign product roadmaps, licensing, and data-center sourcing while managing retaliation risk and compliance exposure.

LNG export acceleration and energy leverage

Policy has shifted toward faster approvals and “regular order” for non‑FTA LNG export permits, supporting 15–20 year contracting with Europe and Asia. This boosts US energy geopolitics, but creates competitiveness and price-risk considerations for energy‑intensive manufacturers globally.

Regulatory divergence in product standards

Ongoing UK–EU divergence—covering conformity marking (UKCA/CE), product safety and sector rules—creates dual-compliance costs. Exporters must manage parallel documentation, testing and labeling, while Northern Ireland arrangements add complexity for distribution models across Great Britain and the EU.

FDI screening and China thaw

New Delhi is reviewing Press Note 3 and considering a de minimis threshold for small investments from bordering countries while keeping security screening. A calibrated easing could unlock capital and upstream know-how (notably electronics), yet adds approval, beneficial-ownership, and geopolitics risk.

Broader mineral export-ban expansion

Indonesia is considering extending raw-material export bans beyond nickel and bauxite to additional minerals (e.g., tin) to force domestic processing. This raises policy and contract risk for traders while creating opportunities for investors in smelters, refining, and industrial-park infrastructure.

Steel and aluminum tariff redesign

The administration is considering redesigning Section 232 downstream metal tariffs, potentially tiering rates (e.g., ~15/25/50%) and applying them to full product value. Importers of machinery, appliances, autos, and consumer goods should model margin impacts and reprice contracts quickly.

Labor constraints and mobilization effects

Military mobilization, displacement, and infrastructure damage tighten labor availability and raise wage and retention pressures in key sectors. International firms should expect execution delays, higher HSE and HR costs, and greater reliance on automation, remote operations, and cross-border staffing.

Defense build-up boosts industrial demand

Policy aims to lift defense spending toward 2% of GDP and relax arms export constraints, expanding procurement and dual-use manufacturing opportunities. International contractors may see more tenders and JVs, but also higher security-clearance, cyber, and supply-chain assurance requirements.

Governance and anti-corruption tightening

Ahead of IMF review, Pakistan’s governance plan targets high-risk agencies and strengthens AML/CFT, procurement rules and asset-declaration transparency. For multinationals this can improve fair competition over time, but near-term brings more scrutiny on payments, beneficial ownership, and higher documentation burdens in tenders.

Hormuz disruption and war premium

Escalating Iran–U.S./Israel tensions increase the probability of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint. Even partial interference can spike prices, trigger force‑majeure clauses, and reroute maritime flows, impacting petrochemicals, aviation fuel, and global manufacturing input costs.

Black Sea export corridor fragility

Ukraine’s maritime export corridor via Odesa/Chornomorsk remains operational but under intensified missile, drone, and mine threats. Volumes can swing sharply and war-risk premiums rise, affecting grain, metals, and container logistics, contracting terms, and delivery reliability for global buyers.

Tighter foreign investment screening

Approval of Mara Holdings’ acquisition of EDF’s Exaion came with sovereignty safeguards: limits on sensitive data hosting, governance controls, and ongoing ministry monitoring. This underscores heightened scrutiny of strategic tech and infrastructure deals, extending timelines and conditions for foreign acquirers.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing is tightening oversight of rare earths and other strategic inputs, where it controls roughly 70% of mining and ~90% of processing. Export licensing, reporting and informal guidance can abruptly reprice magnets, EVs, electronics and defence supply chains, accelerating costly diversification efforts.

Logistics upgrades and multimodal corridors

Dedicated Freight Corridors, Gati Shakti cargo terminals, port connectivity and new national waterways aim to reduce transit times and logistics costs. Firms can redesign distribution networks, but should factor land acquisition delays, last-mile bottlenecks, and regulatory fragmentation.

China–US strategic competition spillovers

Indonesia’s nickel dominance (>60% of global mine supply) is now central to US–China rivalry. US access initiatives and Indonesia’s tightening control could prompt China to adjust investment/technology transfers. Multinationals should stress-test supply chains for retaliation and geopolitical compliance risk.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

Reforma laboral: semana de 40 horas

Avanza la reforma constitucional para reducir la jornada a 40 horas (implementación gradual 2026‑2030), sin bajar salarios y con cambios en horas extra y registro electrónico. Implica presión de costos, rediseño de turnos y productividad en manufactura, logística y servicios.

Post‑Brexit border digitisation setbacks

The government has halted/delayed the Single Trade Window after roughly £110m spent, keeping duplicative customs processes in place. With import declarations estimated to cost up to £4bn annually, firms face higher compliance costs, slower clearance, and planning uncertainty.

Nearshoring growth meets constraints

Mexico continues attracting manufacturing and logistics investments, especially in northern and Bajío corridors, but execution risk is rising from land, permitting, utilities, and labor availability. Firms should stress-test project schedules, supplier capacity, and cross-border throughput assumptions.

Digital economy and data centres

Ho Chi Minh City is catalysing tech infrastructure: announced frameworks include up to US$1bn commitments for hyperscale AI/cloud data centres and a digital-asset fund. Gains include better digital services and compute capacity, but execution depends on power reliability, approvals and data-governance rules.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleets

US sanctions activity is intensifying against Iran and Russia-linked networks, targeting vessels, traders, and financiers. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑US firms, heightens maritime due diligence needs (AIS, beneficial ownership, STS transfers), and increases insurance, freight, and payment friction.

Black Sea ports under fire

Russia is intensifying strikes on ports and shipping, pressuring Ukraine’s Odesa-area maritime corridor. Export volumes are volatile, with corridor exports reported down about 45% year-on-year in April 2025, while insurance, freight rates, and route planning remain highly sensitive.

ديناميكيات غزة ومعبر رفح

إعادة فتح معبر رفح بشكل محدود وتحت ترتيبات تفتيش ومراقبة مع حصص يومية للحركة يؤثر في تدفقات المساعدات والعمالة واللوجستيات إلى شمال سيناء. أي تصعيد أو تشديد قيود يرفع مخاطر التشغيل للشركات قرب الحدود ويؤخر الإمدادات والمشاريع.

Secondary tariffs and sanctions escalation

New measures broaden U.S. economic coercion, including tariffs on countries trading with Iran and expanded sanctions on Iranian oil networks. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, shipping and insurance frictions, potential retaliation, and heightened due diligence on counterparties and trade finance.

China-tech controls and decoupling

US export controls and allied coordination on advanced semiconductors, AI compute, and sensitive manufacturing tools continue to reshape global tech supply chains. Multinationals face licensing uncertainty, China countermeasures risk, and must segment product lines, data flows, and manufacturing footprints.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening via new designations of entities and vessels tied to Iranian oil/petrochemicals, with discussion of tanker seizures. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for shippers, traders, insurers, ports, and banks handling Iran-linked cargo or payments.

Ports and rail recovery, still fragile

Transnet reports improving port performance and rail volumes rising toward ~168Mt by March 2026, with private operators gaining route access and Durban Pier 2 run privately. However, general freight corridors lag, bottlenecks persist, and service reliability remains a supply-chain constraint.

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. controls on outbound capital and know-how—particularly toward China-linked advanced tech—are widening. Multinationals must map covered transactions, restructure joint ventures, and adjust funding routes to avoid penalties, potentially slowing cross-border R&D, venture investment, and supply-chain partnerships in dual-use sectors.