Débat UE sur marché électricité

La hausse du gaz relance la controverse sur la formation des prix électriques en Europe (mécanisme marginal). Industriels et certains États demandent réforme; d’autres veulent préserver la réforme 2024. Enjeu pour contrats long terme, PPA, compétitivité industrielle et arbitrages localisation.

Stricter sanctions enforcement on logistics

France’s detention and multi‑million‑euro fine of a Russia-linked ‘shadow fleet’ tanker signals tougher, physical sanctions enforcement. Energy traders, shipping, insurers, and ports must upgrade due diligence, document trails, and counterparty screening to avoid delays, seizures, and penalties.

Vision 2030 spending recalibration

PIF is resetting its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects like NEOM’s The Line amid fiscal pressure from lower oil prices. Investors should expect shifting procurement pipelines, timelines and counterparties across giga-project supply chains.

Tax, customs and clearance reforms

A FY2026/27 reform package targets simpler real-estate taxation, broader e-services, and customs tariff adjustments to support industry and curb smuggling. Authorities aim to cut customs clearance from five days to two and operate ports seven days weekly, lowering logistics costs.

Ports labor, automation, logistics

U.S. port labor disputes and litigation around automation keep disruption risk elevated at major gateways. Even without a strike, uncertainty can shift routing, increase dwell times, and raise drayage and warehousing costs, prompting diversification across ports and inland logistics.

TL oynaklığı ve sermaye akımları

IMF, 2025 Mart stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlığı sattığını, net rezervlerin 56,9 milyar $’dan 29,1 milyar $’a indiğini belirtti. Geçici piyasa kısıtları görülebilir. Hedging, nakit yönetimi ve ithalat/İhracat fiyatlaması kritik.

Red Sea shipping risk remains

Houthi attacks on Israel-linked vessels are suspended but explicitly conditional on Gaza dynamics, leaving a high-risk maritime environment. Any renewed escalation could re-trigger strikes, raising insurance premia, forcing Cape reroutes, and disrupting Israel-bound supply chains and schedules.

US–Taiwan tariff and investment deals

Recent Taiwan–US arrangements lowered tariffs (reported 20% to 15%) and tied preferential treatment to market-opening and large investment/procurement pledges. Ongoing US legal and policy shifts create volatility; exporters must model tariff scenarios and compliance obligations.

AI chip export controls tighten

Washington is enforcing stringent licensing and end-use conditions for advanced AI chips to China (e.g., Nvidia H200), including KYC and monitoring. Policy swings can quickly change market access, cloud capacity planning, and JV strategies, while raising diversion, enforcement, and reputational risks.

China trade friction re-emerges

Australia’s use of anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel products signals a firmer trade-remedy posture. While narrow in scope, it raises escalation risk with Australia’s largest export market and could affect sectors exposed to China demand, customs clearances, and political signaling.

EEC-led FDI and re-shoring

Foreign investment is concentrating in the Eastern Economic Corridor: January 2026 permits totaled THB33.8bn (+46% y/y), with the EEC taking 43% (THB14.6bn). Focus areas include automation, contract manufacturing, EV supply chains, and services—strengthening Thailand’s role as ASEAN production base.

Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.

Green industrial push, CBAM readiness

IEAT secured a US$100m World Bank loan to decarbonize Map Ta Phut and Laem Chabang, targeting 2.33m tonnes CO2 cuts and “Gold Standard” credits by 2026. This supports EU CBAM exposure management, but requires robust MRV, capex, and supplier compliance.

Riesgo marítimo: Hormuz y abordajes

Aumentan las advertencias a navieras por intentos iraníes de abordaje y detención en el Estrecho de Ormuz, un chokepoint crítico. Esto encarece seguros de guerra, exige escoltas/planificación de rutas y aumenta el riesgo de interrupciones repentinas para energía y carga general.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

Anti-smuggling and steel enforcement

Authorities are canceling and suspending hundreds of firms tied to irregular steel import/maquila programs under “Operación Limpieza,” alongside broader anti-contraband actions. Greater scrutiny of origin and valuation can disrupt supply for metals users and heighten due-diligence requirements for importers.

Rezervler güçlü, dış borç baskısı

TCMB brüt rezervleri Ocak sonunda 218,2 milyar $ ile rekor görüp 20 Şubat haftasında 206,1 milyar $’a indi. Buna karşılık 1 yıl içinde vadesi gelecek kısa vadeli dış borç 225,4 milyar $. Yenileme maliyeti ve likidite riski artıyor.

Monetary policy amid trade shocks

The Bank of Canada is holding rates near 2.25% while emphasizing uncertainty from US protectionism, geopolitics, and slower population growth. Financing costs, FX volatility, and demand softness complicate capital allocation, M&A timing, and hedging strategies for trade-exposed sectors.

Foreign-exchange liquidity and rollovers

External stability hinges on reserves, remittances, and rolling over deposits from partners. Pakistan targets about $18bn reserves by June, while relying on large annual rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (reported $12.5bn combined), shaping FX repatriation risk and payment terms.

Rusya yaptırımları uyum baskısı

Türkiye, Rus petrol ürünlerinde büyük alıcı; STAR rafinerisi Rus payını azaltıp alternatif kaynak arıyor. AB/ABD yaptırımları ve “yeniden ihracat” denetimleri sıkılaşıyor. Bankacılık işlemleri, sigorta/denizcilik hizmetleri ve tedarikçi taraması daha riskli hale geliyor.

Risco climático e navegabilidade amazônica

Secas severas recentes na Amazônia aumentaram busca por eficiência e confiabilidade no transporte fluvial, essencial para grãos e combustíveis. A recorrência do choque hídrico eleva risco operacional para supply chains no Norte, exigindo estoques de segurança, rotas alternativas e seguros mais caros.

Green transition and carbon markets

Thailand is scaling climate finance and market infrastructure: TFEX can list carbon-credit/allowance derivatives, and IEAT secured a $100m World Bank loan to fund renewables and sell ~1m tCO2e credits. Carbon pricing readiness will affect industrial site selection and operating costs.

Pakistan–Afghanistan border trade disruptions

Prolonged closures of key commercial crossings since mid-October have stranded hundreds of trucks and halted cement, food and medicines flows. Persistent security frictions raise transit-time uncertainty for regional corridors, increase inventory buffers, and redirect trade via Iran/China routes.

USMCA review and tariffs

Formal Mexico–U.S. talks begin March 16 ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, with Washington pushing tighter rules of origin, anti-transshipment measures, and supply-chain security. Residual tariffs persist (e.g., metals, trucks, tomatoes), raising planning risk for exporters and investors.

Expanded defense exports, rearmament

Japan is doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP and moving to relax limits on defense equipment exports, including potentially lethal items and third-country sales of jointly developed systems. This opens opportunities in aerospace, components, cyber, and dual-use—but raises regulatory and reputational considerations.

Persistent sectoral national-security tariffs

Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, autos and other products remain outside the IEEPA ruling, sustaining cost pressure for manufacturers and construction. With Section 301 investigations signaled as the next durable tool, firms should expect continued targeted tariff escalation and exemptions management.

Foreign investment scrutiny and security

Canada is applying more assertive national-security review to sensitive sectors such as critical minerals, telecom, AI, and defense supply chains. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation conditions, and partner-vetting requirements—especially where state-linked capital or dual-use technologies are involved.

Expansão ferroviária e corredores

A agenda ferroviária prevê oito leilões até 2027, >9.000 km e ~R$140 bi, mas há entraves ambientais, fundiários e de demanda (ex.: Ferrograo no STF/TCU). Avanços podem reduzir frete e emissões; incerteza afeta decisões de localização industrial e contratos de longo prazo.

Port security and continuity planning

Israeli ports remain operational but face elevated missile/drone and cyber/electronic-interference risks during escalation. Businesses should anticipate contingency operating procedures, tighter security and screening, potential labor constraints, and episodic throughput delays affecting time-sensitive imports, defense logistics, and just-in-time manufacturing.

Section 232 sector tariffs persist

Despite the IEEPA ruling, Section 232 “national security” tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and more remain. These levies shape sourcing and plant-location decisions, raise input costs, and create cross-border friction—especially for automotive and metals supply chains.

Anti-dumping and trade remedies

Australia is expanding anti-dumping actions, including preliminary duties such as ~37% on Chinese hot-rolled coil and other steel products. While protecting domestic producers, these measures raise input costs for construction/manufacturing and can trigger partner retaliation risk.

Export growth targets versus headwinds

Vietnam targets US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16%), after a 2025 record US$475bn and total trade over US$930bn. Heavy reliance on foreign-invested exporters and imported inputs increases vulnerability to demand swings, logistics shocks, and tighter standards.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening via new designations of entities and vessels tied to Iranian oil/petrochemicals, with discussion of tanker seizures. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for shippers, traders, insurers, ports, and banks handling Iran-linked cargo or payments.

Ports, logistics, and rail upgrades

Major connectivity projects—ring roads, expressways, metro lines and links to Long Thanh airport—aim to reduce congestion and logistics cost, while air-cargo and logistics ecosystems expand. Rail restructuring and planned high-speed lines could reshape inland freight patterns and site selection for manufacturers.

Saudization escalation raises labor costs

New Saudization quotas require 60% Saudi nationals in key sales and marketing roles from April 2026, with minimum counted wages of SAR 5,500. Noncompliance risks service suspensions. Multinationals should adjust hiring, compensation, outsourcing, and automation plans to maintain licenses and continuity.

Sanctions compliance and rerouting risks

Ongoing Russia-related sanctions and rising evidence of gray-market rerouting via third countries increase exposure for Japanese brands and distributors. Companies should tighten end-use checks, dealer controls, and trade-finance screening to avoid enforcement, reputational harm, and shipment seizures.