Nuclear diplomacy volatility

Indirect talks mediated by Oman continue amid mutual distrust, while Iran maintains high enrichment levels. Any breakdown could trigger snapback-style sanctions escalation; a breakthrough could rapidly reopen sectors. Businesses face scenario risk, contract instability, and valuation uncertainty.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

The Bank of Japan’s post-deflation normalisation (policy rate at 0.75% after December hike) keeps FX and JGB yields volatile, raising hedging costs and repricing M&A and project finance. Authorities also signal readiness to curb disorderly yen moves.

China tech export-control tightening

Export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI are tightening, raising compliance risk and limiting China revenue. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face strict, non‑negotiable license terms and end‑use monitoring; Applied Materials agreed to a $252M penalty over alleged SMIC-linked exports, signaling tougher BIS enforcement.

Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

Déficits persistentes e exceções ao arcabouço fiscal elevam o prêmio de risco. A dívida federal chegou a R$ 8,64 tri em 2025 (+18%), com projeções de até R$ 10,3 tri em 2026, pressionando câmbio, juros e custo de capital.

Trade politics: EU–Mercosur backlash

French farmer protests are fueling resistance to the EU–Mercosur deal, increasing ratification delays and safeguard demands. For multinationals, this raises uncertainty for agri-food sourcing, automotive and chemicals exports, and access to South American critical minerals.

Capital Controls Tighten Amid Fiscal Strain

New regulations require declarations for cash exports over $100,000 and restrict gold bar movements. These controls aim to curb capital flight, increase transparency, and stabilize the ruble, but may deter foreign investment and complicate international financial operations in Russia.

Logistics build-out and trade corridors

Ports and inland logistics are expanding, including new logistics zones and rail growth supporting freight and mining flows. Saudi Railways moved ~30m tons of freight in 2025, reducing trucking dependence. Improves supply-chain resilience, but project phasing and permitting remain execution risks.

US-China Trade Truce and Tariffs

The recent US-China trade truce has led to reduced tariffs and eased tensions, supporting a 2.4% US growth forecast for 2026. This stabilization benefits global supply chains and trade flows, yet ongoing rivalry and policy unpredictability remain significant risks for international businesses.

Major Overhaul of Investment Laws

Thailand is implementing sweeping reforms to business, visa, and property regulations, including opening select sectors to 100% foreign ownership, easing expat entry, and legalizing same-sex marriage. These measures aim to attract global talent and investment, boosting Thailand’s competitiveness as an international business hub.

Tasas, inflación y costo financiero

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% ante choques por IEPS y aranceles a importaciones chinas; además elevó pronósticos de inflación (meta 3% se desplaza a 2027). Esto encarece financiamiento, altera valuaciones y afecta coberturas cambiarias y de tasas.

Immigration and visa policy uncertainty

Shifting U.S. visa rules and politicized immigration enforcement complicate global talent mobility. Employers may face higher costs, slower processing, and tighter eligibility for H-1B and other work visas, constraining staffing for high-skill operations, construction, and tech-enabled supply chains.

Industrial policy and subsidy conditions

CHIPS Act and IRA-era incentives keep steering investment toward U.S. manufacturing and clean energy, often with domestic-content, labor, and sourcing requirements. This reshapes site selection and supplier qualification, while creating tax-credit transfer opportunities and compliance burdens for global operators.

Federal shutdown and fiscal brinkmanship

Recurring U.S. fiscal standoffs are disrupting federal services and increasing macro uncertainty. A partial government shutdown began after Congress missed funding deadlines, with estimates of up to $11B GDP loss if prolonged. Impacts include delayed permits, customs/agency backlogs, contractor payment risks, and market volatility.

Political Polarization and Nationalist Sentiment

Rising nationalist sentiment linked to border tensions with Cambodia is shaping electoral outcomes and policy direction. Persistent influence of military and conservative elites creates uncertainty for reform, regulatory stability, and the investment climate, especially during election cycles.

UK’s Pragmatic Engagement With China

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing signals a strategic effort to revive UK-China trade ties despite domestic criticism and security concerns. The UK aims to balance economic interests with national security and values, reflecting a pragmatic diversification strategy.

Energy strategy pivots nuclear-led

The new 10‑year energy plan (PPE3) prioritizes nuclear with six EPR2 reactors (first by 2038) and aims existing fleet output around 380–420 TWh by 2030–2035. Lower wind/solar targets add policy risk for power‑purchase strategies and electrification investments.

Dependência de China em commodities

A China ampliou compras de soja brasileira por vantagem de preço e incertezas tarifárias EUA–China. Essa concentração sustenta exportações, mas aumenta exposição a mudanças regulatórias chinesas, logística portuária e eventos climáticos, afetando contratos de longo prazo.

Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks

Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.

Balochistan security and CPEC exposure

Militant attacks in Balochistan underscore elevated security risks around CPEC assets, transport corridors, and Gwadar-linked logistics. Higher security costs, insurance premiums, and project delays weigh on FDI appetite, especially for infrastructure, mining, and energy ventures with long payback periods.

Export and Import Dynamics Shift

Germany’s modular building exports are rising, supported by demand for sustainable and high-quality solutions in Europe and beyond. Import trends reflect increased sourcing of advanced materials and components, impacting trade balances and supply chain strategies for global firms.

EU CEPA nearing completion

IEU‑CEPA negotiations have entered legal scrubbing, with completion targeted May 2026 and implementation aimed for January 2027. Indonesia expects up to 98% tariff-line elimination (around 90% duty‑free both ways), boosting EU-linked manufacturing, services, and investment planning.

Pressão socioambiental na Amazônia

Protestos indígenas bloquearam terminal da Cargill em Santarém contra concessões e dragagem na bacia do Tapajós, alegando falta de consulta. O tema eleva risco de paralisações, due diligence socioambiental e exigências de rastreabilidade em cadeias agrícolas.

EU Green Deal and Carbon Border Adjustment

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective from January 2026, imposes new costs and compliance requirements on Turkish exporters of carbon-intensive goods. Sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals face increased regulatory scrutiny, affecting export competitiveness and supply chain strategies.

China coercion, economic security

Rising China–Japan tensions are translating into economic-security policy: tighter protection of critical goods, dual-use trade and supply-chain “China-proofing.” Beijing’s reported curbs (seafood, dual-use) highlight escalation risk that can disrupt exports, licensing, and China-linked operations.

Sectoral Gains in Chemicals, Textiles, IT, and Pharma

The India-EU trade deal and other FTAs immediately benefit Indian exporters in chemicals, textiles, metals, pharmaceuticals, and IT. Tariff eliminations and improved regulatory cooperation are expected to boost exports, employment, and integration into global value chains.

FX stabilization under IMF program

Record reserves (about $52.6bn) and falling inflation support a more stable pound and prospective rate cuts, anchored by IMF reviews and disbursements. However, policy slippage could revive parallel-market pressures, affecting pricing, profit repatriation, and import financing.

Macro resilience, currency strength

Israel’s shekel strength, low unemployment and expectations of further rate cuts support domestic demand and investment planning, while war risk premia remain. Foreign firms should hedge FX volatility, stress-test financing costs, and monitor credit-rating narratives and sovereign bond market access.

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Realignment

Australia is advancing a critical minerals strategy, including a $1.2 billion strategic reserve and international partnerships, to reduce dependence on China. This shift is reshaping global supply chains for rare earths, gallium, and antimony, with significant implications for technology and defense sectors.

Privatization and Industrial Restructuring

Pakistan is accelerating privatization of state-owned enterprises and restructuring its energy and manufacturing sectors. These reforms aim to attract FDI and improve competitiveness, but create transitional risks for supply chains and legacy contracts, especially in infrastructure, energy, and logistics.

Energy transition supply-chain frictions

Rising restrictions and tariffs targeting Chinese-origin batteries and energy storage (e.g., FEOC rules, higher Section 301 tariffs) are forcing earlier compliance screening, origin tracing, and dual-sourcing—impacting project finance, delivery schedules, and total installed costs globally.

Aggressive antitrust and M&A scrutiny

FTC/DOJ enforcement remains assertive, with close review of platform, AI, and “acquihire” deals plus tougher merger analysis. Cross-border buyers face longer timelines, higher remedy demands, and greater deal-break risk, affecting investment planning, partnerships, and exit strategies.

Macroeconomic Stability and Policy Risks

Consistent 5% growth and low inflation underpin Indonesia’s economic outlook, but recent market turmoil, currency depreciation, and political appointments have heightened concerns over central bank independence, fiscal expansion, and the credibility of long-term investment strategies.

EU Customs Union Modernization Stalemate

Turkey’s business community is pressing for the modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union, which is critical for trade and value chains. Delays and lack of progress risk Turkey’s competitiveness, especially as new EU FTAs and green regulations reshape market access and supply chains.

Nearshoring demand meets capacity

Mexico remains the primary North American nearshoring hub, lifting manufacturing and cross-border volumes, but execution is uneven due to permitting delays, labor tightness and utility limits. Firms should expect longer ramp-up timelines, higher site-selection due diligence, and competition for industrial services.

FDI surge and industrial-park expansion

Vietnam attracted $38.42bn registered FDI in 2025 and $27.62bn realised (multi-year high), with early-2026 approvals exceeding $1bn in key northern provinces. Momentum supports supplier clustering, but strains land, power, logistics capacity and raises labour competition.

Non-tariff barrier negotiations intensify

US demands faster movement on digital-platform rules, agricultural quarantine/market access, auto and pharma certifications, and mapping-data export issues. Stalled Korea–US FTA Joint Committee talks heighten regulatory risk for US and third-country firms operating in Korea and exporting onward.