Data privacy enforcement escalates

Proposed amendments to the Personal Information Protection Act would expand corporate liability for breaches by shifting burden of proof and toughening penalties. High-profile cases (e.g., Coupang, telecom) increase litigation, remediation, and audit demand across retail, fintech, and cloud supply chains.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

Energy mix permitting and local opposition

While no renewables moratorium is planned, the PPE points to slower onshore wind/solar and prioritizes repowering to reduce local conflicts. Permitting risk and community opposition can delay projects, affecting PPAs, factory decarbonization plans, and ESG delivery timelines.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

The EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands energy, shipping, banking, and trade controls (including shadow-fleet listings and maritime services bans). Ukraine-linked firms face tighter due diligence on counterparties, routing, and dual-use items; enforcement pressure increases financing and logistics friction regionwide.

China-linked FDI rules re-evaluation

India is reviewing Press Note 3 and may add a de minimis threshold to speed small-border-country investments while retaining scrutiny for sensitive sectors. This could reopen selective China capital and supplier participation, affecting JV structuring, procurement costs, and compliance with security reviews.

Fiscal consolidation and tax uncertainty

France’s 2026 budget targets a ~5% of GDP deficit and debt around 118% of GDP, relying on higher levies on large corporates and restrained spending. Political fragmentation and 49.3 use heighten policy volatility for investors, pricing, and hiring.

Energy exports and LNG geopolitics

US LNG is central to allies’ energy security, but export policy and domestic political pressure can affect approvals, pricing, and availability. For industry, this shapes energy-intensive manufacturing siting, long-term contracts, and Europe-Asia competition for cargoes, with knock-on logistics and hedging needs.

EU Trade Relations and GSP+ Extension

The EU’s extension of GSP+ status until 2027 secures duty-free access for Pakistani exports, especially textiles, contingent on continued progress in human rights and governance. This preferential access is vital for export-led growth and supply chain resilience to European markets.

Non‑tariff barrier negotiation squeeze

U.S. pressure is expanding from tariffs to Korean rules on online platforms, agriculture/quarantine, IP, and sector certifications. Firms should expect compliance costs, product approval delays, and heightened trade-law scrutiny as Korea–U.S. FTA mechanisms and side talks intensify.

Suez/Red Sea route uncertainty

Red Sea security is improving but remains fragile: Maersk–Hapag-Lloyd are cautiously returning one service via Suez, after traffic fell about 60%. For shippers, routing/insurance volatility drives transit-time swings, freight-rate risk, and contingency inventory needs.

New fees, taxes, and compliance load

Egypt continues updating VAT and tax administration and adding port/terminal charges (e.g., inspection fees). Combined with evolving customs requirements such as mandatory Advance Cargo Information for air freight, compliance costs and penalties risks rise for importers and logistics providers.

Shareholder activism and governance shifts

Japan’s record M&A cycle and activist pressure are reshaping capital allocation and control structures. Elliott opposed Toyota Industries’ take-private price, while Fuji Media launched a ¥235bn buyback to exit an activist stake. Deal risk, valuation scrutiny, and governance expectations are rising for investors.

Energy transition meets grid constraints

Renewables are growing rapidly, yet Brazil curtailed roughly 20% of wind/solar output in 2025 with estimated losses around BRL 6.5bn, reflecting grid bottlenecks. Investors must factor transmission availability, curtailment clauses and regulatory responses into projects and PPAs.

Sustainable Development And Regulatory Compliance

Vietnam’s wood and agricultural sectors are adapting to stringent international sustainability and legality standards, especially from the US and EU. Compliance with deforestation-free and traceability requirements is now essential for continued access to major export markets.

EEC land, zoning, logistics bottlenecks

Industrial land scarcity and outdated zoning in the EEC are delaying large projects; clearing public rights-of-way can take 7–8 years. Government efforts to “unlock” constraints and restart U-Tapao Airport City PPP may reshape site selection, capex timing, and logistics planning.

Supply-chain de-risking beyond China

Taipei is accelerating economic resilience by diversifying export markets and technology partnerships beyond China, including deeper U.S. and European engagement. This shifts rules-of-origin, compliance expectations, and supplier qualification timelines, especially for electronics, telecoms and machinery exporters.

توسع الموانئ والممرات اللوجستية

خطة لوجستية وطنية تربط موانئ المتوسط والبحر الأحمر بموانئ جافة ومناطق صناعية عبر سبعة ممرات متعددة الوسائط، مع توسعات أرصفة عميقة بنحو 70 كم. التشغيل التجريبي لمحطة «تحيا مصر 1» بدمياط بطاقة 3.5 مليون TEU يعزز قدرات المناولة وجذب الخطوط.

Palm oil biofuels and export controls

Indonesia is maintaining B40 biodiesel in 2026 and advancing aviation/bioethanol initiatives, while leadership signaled bans on exporting used cooking oil feedstocks. Policy supports energy security and domestic processing, but can tighten global vegetable oil supply, alter contracts, and increase input-cost volatility.

Digital tax reporting expands to SMEs

HMRC’s Making Tax Digital for Income Tax begins April 2026 for self‑employed/landlords over £50k, moving to quarterly submissions via paid software; thresholds fall to £30k (2027) and £20k (2028). This increases compliance cost, process change and advisory demand.

Semiconductor reshoring and export controls

Taiwan’s chip sector faces simultaneous pressures: US tariffs on certain advanced chips, tighter tech controls toward China, and major offshore fab investment. Firms must redesign compliance, IP protection, and capacity allocation while managing customer qualification and margin impacts.

Semiconductor reshoring accelerates

Japan is deepening economic-security industrial policy around chips. TSMC plans 3‑nanometer production in Kumamoto, with reported investment around $17bn, while Tokyo considers additional subsidies. This strengthens local supply clusters but intensifies competition for land, power, engineers, and suppliers.

Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity Initiatives

Japan is accelerating digital transformation, highlighted by advanced AI, biometric security, and expanded cyber defense partnerships with allies. These initiatives enhance operational efficiency and security for international firms, but require adaptation to evolving regulatory and technological standards.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing’s dominance—about 70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% processing—keeps global manufacturers exposed to licensing delays or sudden controls. Western allies are organizing price floors and stockpiles to de-risk, raising sourcing costs and compliance burdens for China-linked inputs.

Maritime and insurance risk premia

Geopolitical volatility continues to reshape Asia–Europe logistics. Even as Red Sea routes partially normalize, rate swings and capacity overhang drive volatile freight pricing. China exporters and importers should plan for sudden rerouting, longer lead times, and higher war-risk insurance.

Regional war and security risk

Gaza conflict and spillovers (Lebanon, Iran proxies) keep Israel’s risk premium elevated, raising insurance, freight, and business-continuity costs. Mobilization and security alerts disrupt staffing and site access, while renewed escalation could rapidly impair ports, aviation, and cross-border trade.

EU partnership and EVFTA compliance

The EU upgraded ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and pushes fuller EVFTA implementation. Exporters face tighter EU requirements on ESG, traceability, safety and carbon rules (e.g., CBAM). Firms should budget for compliance systems, auditing, and cleaner inputs to protect EU access.

Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

Déficits persistentes e exceções ao arcabouço fiscal elevam o prêmio de risco. A dívida federal chegou a R$ 8,64 tri em 2025 (+18%), com projeções de até R$ 10,3 tri em 2026, pressionando câmbio, juros e custo de capital.

Migration tightening, labour shortages

Visa rule tightening is depressing skilled-worker and student inflows; analysts warn net migration could turn negative for the first time since 1993. Sectors like construction, care and health face hiring frictions, lifting wage pressure and constraining delivery timelines for UK operations.

Tighter sanctions enforcement playbook

Expanded U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian officials and digital-asset channels signal heightened enforcement, including against evasion networks. Firms in finance, shipping, commodities, and tech face greater due-diligence burdens, heightened penalties risk, and potential disruptions to cross-border payments and insurance.

Capital Controls Tighten Amid Fiscal Strain

New regulations require declarations for cash exports over $100,000 and restrict gold bar movements. These controls aim to curb capital flight, increase transparency, and stabilize the ruble, but may deter foreign investment and complicate international financial operations in Russia.

EU partnership deepens market access

Vietnam–EU ties were upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, reinforcing the EVFTA-driven trade surge (two-way trade about US$73.8bn in 2025) and opening new cooperation on infrastructure, cybersecurity, and supply-chain security—supporting diversification away from US/China shocks.

Mining investment and regulatory drag

South Africa risks missing the next commodity cycle as exploration spending remains weak—under 1% of global exploration capital—amid policy uncertainty and infrastructure constraints. Rail and port underperformance directly reduces realized mineral export volumes, raising unit costs and deterring greenfield projects.

Foreign Investment Hits Six-Year High

Foreign ownership of Korean stocks reached 37.18%, the highest since 2020, with strong inflows into semiconductors, shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power. This trend reflects global investor confidence but also exposes Korea to external shocks and geopolitical tensions.

Economic-security industrial policy expansion

Tokyo is using subsidies and “economic security” framing to steer strategic sectors (chips, AI, defense-linked tech). This can crowd-in foreign investment and partnerships, but increases compliance complexity around sensitive technologies and state-aid conditions.

Nuclear talks uncertainty and snapback

Muscat talks resumed but remain far apart on enrichment and scope, while sanctions continue alongside diplomacy. The risk of negotiation breakdown—or further UN/EU/U.S. “snapback” measures—creates unstable planning horizons for contracts, project finance, and long-cycle investments in Iran-linked trade.

IMF-backed macro stabilisation momentum

Egypt’s IMF program and policy shift toward a flexible exchange rate are strengthening confidence. Net international reserves hit a record $52.6bn (about 6.3 months of imports) while inflation eased near 12%. This supports import capacity, but policy discipline must hold.