Talent constraints and foreign hiring policy

Labor shortages in manufacturing and high-tech intensify competition for engineers and skilled technicians. Policy tweaks to attract foreign talent and expand foreign-worker quotas can help, but firms should plan for wage pressure, retention costs, and slower ramp-ups for new capacity.

Plan masivo de infraestructura y energía

El gobierno lanzó un plan 2026‑2030 de MXN 5.6 billones (≈US$323 mil millones) y ~1,500 proyectos, con energía como rubro principal. Puede mejorar logística (puertos, trenes, carreteras) y confiabilidad energética, pero exige marcos “bancables” y certidumbre contractual.

Stagnation in Russian Oil and LNG Output

Despite sanctions and attacks, Russia’s oil production only fell 0.8% in 2024, but LNG output missed targets and long-term expansion plans are delayed. Sanctions on technology and finance hinder energy sector growth, affecting future export capacity and investment opportunities.

Reopening travel, visa facilitation

Large rises in cross-border trips and wider visa-free/extended transit policies (including UK visa-free plans) improve commercial mobility and service trade. However, implementation details and reciprocity remain variable, requiring firms to plan for compliance, documentation, and policy reversals.

Regulatory push for digital sovereignty cloud

France continues to steer sensitive workloads toward “sovereign” cloud and security certifications (e.g., SecNumCloud), affecting public procurement and regulated sectors. Non-EU hyperscalers may need partnerships or ring-fenced operations; compliance can reshape IT sourcing.

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

Nickel quota tightening and audits

Jakarta plans to cut 2026 nickel ore mining permits to 250–260m wet tons from 379m in 2025, alongside MOMS verification delays and tighter audits. Expect supply volatility, higher nickel prices, and permitting risk for battery, steel, and EV supply chains.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

US Trade Policy Realignment Accelerates

Recent US trade policy shifts, including new tariffs and renegotiated agreements, are reshaping global commerce. These changes drive uncertainty in cross-border operations, impacting supply chain strategies and international investment decisions for multinational firms.

State-led energy, mixed projects

Mexico is expanding state-directed energy investment while opening “mixed” generation projects where CFE holds majority stakes and offers long-term offtake. This can unlock renewables buildout, yet governance, procurement exceptions and political discretion create contracting, dispute-resolution and bankability complexities for investors.

Nickel Policy Drives Global Supply Chains

Indonesia’s tightening of nickel ore production quotas and crackdown on illegal mining directly impacts 65% of global supply. These moves, aimed at boosting domestic processing, create volatility in battery and EV supply chains and influence global commodity prices.

Visa Incentives And Talent Mobility

New government decrees grant time-limited visa exemptions for foreign experts, streamlining entry and enhancing Vietnam’s attractiveness for international talent. This policy supports research, innovation, and high-value investment, facilitating knowledge transfer and business expansion.

Global Supply Chain Diversification Trend

Amid US-led tariff wars, UK businesses are accelerating efforts to diversify suppliers and markets, particularly towards India and Asia-Pacific. This shift aims to mitigate risks from geopolitical shocks and ensure resilience in critical sectors such as automotive and technology.

Rising Non-Oil Exports and Trade Diversification

Non-oil exports grew by 17% in 2025 to $48.6 billion, narrowing the trade deficit by 9%. Key export sectors include building materials, chemicals, and food. This diversification supports economic resilience and offers new opportunities for international trade partnerships.

US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Port infrastructure under sustained strikes

A concentrated wave of Russian attacks on ports and ships—Dec 2–Jan 12 made up ~10% of all such strikes since 2022—targets Ukraine’s export backbone. Damage and interruptions raise demurrage and storage costs, deter carriers, and complicate export contracting for agriculture and metals.

Crime, corruption and governance strain

Allegations of syndicate infiltration and corruption within policing and procurement elevate security, extortion, and compliance risks for investors. Weak enforcement can disrupt logistics corridors and construction sites, raise insurance costs, and complicate due diligence and partner selection.

Foreign Investment Hits Six-Year High

Foreign ownership of Korean stocks reached 37.18%, the highest since 2020, with strong inflows into semiconductors, shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power. This trend reflects global investor confidence but also exposes Korea to external shocks and geopolitical tensions.

Rusya yaptırımları ve uyum riski

AB’nin Rus petrolüne yönelik yaptırımları sertleştirmeyi tartışması ve rafine ürünlerde dolaylı akışları hedeflemesi, Türkiye üzerinden ticarette uyum/itibar riskini artırıyor. Bankacılık, sigorta, denizcilik ve ihracatçıların “yeniden ihracat” kontrollerini güçlendirmesi gerekebilir.

U.S. tariff and ratification risk

Washington is threatening to lift tariffs on Korean goods from 15% to 25% unless Seoul’s parliament ratifies implementation laws tied to a $350bn Korea investment pledge. Exporters face pricing shocks, contract renegotiations, and accelerated U.S. localization pressure.

Sanctions, Export Controls, and Security Concerns

The UK’s alignment with Western sanctions on Russia and scrutiny of Chinese investments heighten compliance risks. Export controls, especially in technology and dual-use goods, require robust due diligence and may affect cross-border operations and partnerships.

Data (Use and Access) Act shift

The DUAA’s main provisions are in force, expanding ICO investigative powers and raising potential PECR fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover. Firms must reassess data-governance, consent, product design, vendor risk and UK‑EU data-transfer posture.

Deforestation and Environmental Risk

Deforestation in the Cerrado and Amazon remains a major concern, with over 8.5 million hectares lost in five years. New EU regulations targeting deforestation-linked commodities threaten Brazilian exports, while domestic policies and enforcement are intensifying to meet climate commitments.

Geopolitical realignment of corridors

With European routes constrained, Russia deepens reliance on non-Western corridors and intermediaries—through the Caucasus, Central Asia, and maritime transshipment—to sustain trade. This raises reputational and compliance risk for firms operating in transit states, where due diligence on beneficial ownership and end-use is increasingly critical.

US tariffs hit German exports

US baseline 15% EU duty is biting: Germany’s 2025 exports to the United States fell 9.3% to about €147bn; the bilateral surplus dropped to €52.2bn. Automakers, machinery and chemicals face margin pressure, reshoring decisions, and supply-chain reconfiguration.

US reciprocal tariff deal pending

Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.

Geopolitical Risks in Resource Supply Chains

Global supply chain vulnerabilities, especially in critical minerals, are heightened by concentrated production in China and Russia. Australia’s efforts to build strategic reserves and diversify sourcing are crucial for business continuity, risk management, and long-term investment planning.

US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Energy exports and LNG geopolitics

US LNG is central to allies’ energy security, but export policy and domestic political pressure can affect approvals, pricing, and availability. For industry, this shapes energy-intensive manufacturing siting, long-term contracts, and Europe-Asia competition for cargoes, with knock-on logistics and hedging needs.

USMCA review and North America

The approaching USMCA review is heightening risk for automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing flows across the US–Canada–Mexico corridor. Threatened tariffs and rules-of-origin pressures incentivize nearshoring but complicate cross-border planning, inventory placement, and long-term supplier commitments.

Surge in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Foreign investment in Germany more than doubled to €96 billion in 2025, reflecting confidence in its stability, legal certainty, and EU market access. This trend strengthens Germany’s position as a European business hub, but also increases scrutiny on strategic sectors and regulatory frameworks.

Tariff Policy and China Trade Dynamics

Mexico’s export growth to the US persists despite tariff tensions, with effective rates around 3.5%—far lower than China’s 32%. Mexico’s alignment with US protectionist measures against China strengthens its position as America’s top trading partner, but exposes it to policy volatility.

Real Estate Transformation and Urbanization

India’s real estate market is projected to reach $1.26 trillion by 2034, driven by urbanization, infrastructure, and PropTech. Regulatory reforms like RERA and rising NRI investments are boosting transparency and investor confidence, with commercial and residential demand expanding in Tier-II cities.

Regulatory and antitrust pressure on tech

Heightened antitrust and platform regulation increases compliance and deal uncertainty for digital firms operating in the U.S., affecting M&A, app store terms, advertising, and data practices. Global companies should anticipate litigation risk, remedy requirements, and operational separations.

Reconstruction and infrastructure pipeline

Ongoing post-earthquake rebuilding and associated infrastructure upgrades continue to generate procurement and contracting opportunities across construction materials, logistics, and utilities. However, project execution risk remains tied to municipal permitting, cost inflation, and financing conditions under tight policy.