Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 27, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is set to have a significant impact on global trade, with Singapore potentially emerging as a financial hub in Asia and tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada threatening to disrupt supply chains and increase costs for businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, the UAE's growing global influence poses challenges for the West, with mixed implications for the UK's investment prospects. In the Middle East, Israel's recent military victory over Iran has shifted the regional balance of power, while Romania's presidential election has brought an ultranationalist candidate to power, raising concerns about the country's future direction.
Trump's Return and the Impact on Global Trade
The re-election of Donald Trump has sparked concerns about the future of global trade, particularly with China, Mexico, and Canada. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on these countries, citing drug smuggling and illegal immigration as reasons for the tariffs. This move has raised concerns about the potential impact on supply chains and increased costs for businesses and consumers.
For Singapore, however, Trump's victory could be a "net positive", as foreign capital is expected to flow into the country's financial institutions, attracted by political stability and a lenient tax regime. Singapore's Big Three banks, DBS Bank, United Overseas Bank (UOB), and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC), are well-positioned to benefit from this influx of capital, with OCBC, in particular, being a key player in the country's banking sector.
The UAE's Growing Global Influence and Implications for the West
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a significant player on the global stage, with mixed implications for the West. On the one hand, the UAE is a vital ally for the US and the UK, partnering with Israel, countering Chinese influence in Africa, and investing heavily in US and UK ventures through its sovereign wealth funds. On the other hand, the UAE has undermined Western sanctions against Russia, indirectly supported the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine, and engaged in a policy of adventurism that has fuelled conflict and humanitarian disasters in parts of Africa and the Middle East.
The UAE's growing global influence has complicated the UK's bid for more investment, with Labour leader Keir Starmer set to visit the UAE next month to solicit investment in the UK. The UAE's mixed record and Trump's isolationist instincts could make it difficult for the UK to secure the desired level of investment.
Israel's Military Victory Over Iran and the Shifting Regional Balance of Power
In the Middle East, Israel's recent military victory over Iran has shifted the regional balance of power, with Iran's formidable threat network seemingly neutralised. This development has significant implications for the region, as Israel's ability to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities is no longer deterred by the threat of retaliation from Iran's proxies.
The defeat of Iran has altered the strategic calculus in the region, with Israel emerging as a dominant force and Iran's influence potentially waning. This shift in power dynamics could have far-reaching consequences for the stability of the region, with Israel potentially taking a more assertive stance in the face of a weakened Iran.
Romania's Presidential Election and the Rise of Ultranationalism
In Romania, the surprise victory of ultranationalist candidate Calin Georgescu in the first round of the presidential election has raised concerns about the country's future direction. Georgescu, who campaigned on a NATO and EU-sceptic platform, has called for an end to the war in Ukraine and opposed further military aid to Kiev. His success has been attributed to his ability to address the concerns of ordinary Romanians, particularly the economic hardships caused by the war in Ukraine.
The rise of ultranationalism in Romania has raised questions about the country's commitment to Western alliances and its future relationship with the EU and NATO. Georgescu's emphasis on Romania's national interests and criticism of supra-national organisations suggest a potential shift in the country's foreign policy, with uncertain implications for the region and the broader international community.
Taiwan's Air Raid Alarm Adjustment and the Growing Tensions with China
In Taiwan, the government has lowered the threshold to trigger air raid alarms in response to China's repeated provocations and escalating hostilities across the Taiwan Strait. This move has raised concerns about the reduced time civilians will have to seek shelter during a potential conflict.
The tensions between Taiwan and China have intensified in recent years, with China sending military vessels and aircraft near Taiwan almost daily and flying balloons near the island, feared to be used for surveillance. The adjustment to the air raid alarm system is aimed at better aligning Taiwan's defences with China's strategies, but it also highlights the growing risk of conflict in the region.
Taiwan's decision to lower the threshold for air raid alarms is a significant development in the ongoing tensions with China, with potential implications for regional stability and the global balance of power.
Further Reading:
How America’s War on Chinese Tech Backfired - Foreign Affairs Magazine
Kuwait Seeks to Offer Flexible Incentives to Attract Foreign Investments - Asharq Al-awsat - English
Opinion | Three Global Challenges That Will Shape Trump’s Legacy - The New York Times
Should Canada retaliate if Trump makes good on 25 per cent tariff threat? - CTV News
There’s a simple explanation for Calin Georgescu’s ‘shock’ triumph in Romania - The Spectator
Trump threatens Mexico, China, and Canada with tariffs over immigration and drugs - The Independent
UAE’s growing global influence sets up challenges for the west - Tortoise Media
What could get more expensive if Trump launches a new trade war with Mexico and Canada - CNN
Themes around the World:
Major Infrastructure and Digital Expansion
India’s infrastructure financing is integrating with global capital markets, focusing on green, resilient, and tech-enabled projects. Data center capacity doubled in 2025, with projections to triple by 2030, supporting digital transformation and robust supply chain logistics.
Biofuels and Clean Energy Transition
Canada’s new biofuel production incentives and regulatory amendments aim to strengthen domestic renewable fuel sectors. These measures respond to US policy shifts and global competition, impacting agri-business, energy investment, and supply chain adaptation.
EU-US Trade Deal at Risk
The tariff dispute jeopardizes the recently negotiated EU-US trade agreement. Suspension or collapse of the deal would undermine market access, investment flows, and regulatory cooperation, with broad negative implications for Finnish and European businesses.
Energy Sector Reform and Investment
Mexico is negotiating with global oil majors to revive hydrocarbon production and attract private capital, while expanding renewable energy and gas infrastructure. Regulatory reforms aim to balance state control with investment incentives, but contract risks and policy shifts remain a concern.
Sanctions Expansion and Venezuela Intervention
The US has escalated sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Chinese entities linked to oil and weapons trade, alongside military actions and direct intervention in Venezuela’s oil sector. These moves disrupt energy markets and heighten geopolitical risk for investors.
LNG Export Expansion and Energy Policy
US LNG export capacity is expanding, with new projects and regulatory filings, aiming to supply global markets and support allies’ energy security. This growth strengthens US influence in energy geopolitics but raises questions about domestic energy costs and environmental impacts.
Corruption And Governance Challenges
State corruption remains a major concern, with high-profile investigations into tender fraud and police misconduct. Ongoing scandals undermine public trust, complicate regulatory compliance, and increase operational risks for international businesses seeking transparency and stability.
Regulatory Tightening in Cross-Border E-Commerce
Turkey abolished the simplified customs declaration for goods under €30, effective February 2026. All e-commerce imports now face standard procedures, increasing compliance costs and scrutiny for international platforms, with exceptions for medicines and supplements.
Technology Export Controls and Supply Chain Security
New US export controls and tariffs on advanced AI chips to China target national security risks and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. These measures reshape the global tech sector, influence investment strategies, and may trigger further fragmentation of technology markets.
Labour Market Pressures and Unemployment
Unemployment remains elevated at 31.9%, with major retrenchments in manufacturing and automotive sectors. US tariffs and company closures threaten further job losses in 2026, intensifying social pressures and impacting consumer demand, with implications for both local and international businesses.
Danish Defense Policy Hardens
Denmark reaffirmed its Cold War-era policy to defend Greenland militarily against any invasion, including from NATO allies. This stance increases regional tensions and could trigger direct conflict, affecting risk assessments for foreign investment and multinational operations in Denmark.
Infrastructure Investment Accelerates Growth
Major investments in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure are underway to support economic expansion and competitiveness. These projects present opportunities for foreign investors but require careful navigation of regulatory, environmental, and local stakeholder considerations.
Energy Stability and Eskom Turnaround
South Africa’s power grid has achieved its most stable period in five years, following Eskom’s recovery plan and a R254 billion bailout. Load shedding has virtually ended, boosting investor confidence and reducing operational risks for businesses.
Nusantara Capital City Attracts Investment
The Rp6 trillion state budget allocation and entry of new investors signal growing confidence in Nusantara (IKN) as Indonesia’s future economic hub. Development of commercial, office, and sports facilities is set to accelerate, impacting construction, real estate, and services.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Export Risks
Geopolitical tensions, sanctions on Russia, and trade disputes with the US have weakened external demand for German goods. Exporters face ongoing uncertainty, especially in automotive and machinery sectors, complicating supply chain planning and global market strategies.
Inflation Moderation but Persistent Cost Pressures
Annual inflation dropped to 10.3% in December 2025, the lowest in two years, mainly due to falling food prices. Nonetheless, costs for housing, health, and transport continue to rise, influencing wage demands, consumer spending, and operational budgeting for businesses.
Energy Sector Reform and Pemex Struggles
Mexico’s energy sector faces challenges from declining Pemex production, revenue shortfalls, and policy shifts. Recent moves to allow private operators in key fields signal reform, but fiscal pressures and regulatory uncertainty may affect energy investment and supply reliability.
Resilience and Adaptation in Economic Policy
Despite external shocks, Germany and the eurozone have shown resilience, with 1.4% growth in 2025. A major stimulus plan, investment in digital and green infrastructure, and labor market reforms are redefining Germany’s economic role and supporting competitiveness amid global uncertainty.
Trade Policy Protectionism and Import Controls
France has suspended imports of certain South American products over non-compliance with EU standards and is pushing for stricter border controls. This signals a more protectionist stance, increasing compliance costs and uncertainty for international suppliers and food sector operators.
Vision 2030 Giga-Projects Acceleration
Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects, such as Qiddiya and NEOM, are advancing rapidly, with major infrastructure and entertainment investments. These projects aim to diversify the economy, create up to 85,000 jobs by 2030, and generate significant non-oil revenue, attracting global investors and supply chain partners.
Dual-Use Export Controls Expansion
China’s expanded controls on dual-use items—goods with civilian and military applications—target Japan and other countries over security concerns. These measures disrupt technology, aerospace, and defense supply chains, and signal China’s willingness to weaponize trade in geopolitical disputes.
Labour Market and Skilled Migration Initiatives
Germany is addressing labour shortages through new mobility and skills agreements, notably with India. Visa facilitation for Indian professionals and expanded vocational training partnerships are designed to attract talent and support economic growth in key sectors.
Declining Foreign Investment and Policy Uncertainty
Foreign direct investment dropped 82% year-on-year, reflecting high taxes, inconsistent regulation, and bureaucratic inefficiencies. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) aims to streamline approvals, but investor confidence remains fragile, impacting long-term capital flows and supply chain decisions.
Uncertain Path to Palestinian Statehood and Reform
The phased peace plan envisions Palestinian reforms and eventual statehood, but Israeli opposition and internal Palestinian divisions stall progress. The lack of political clarity deters long-term investment and complicates regulatory forecasting for international firms.
Political Risks Over Government Stability
Threats of government censure over trade policy, especially Mercosur, highlight political volatility. This instability could affect regulatory predictability, investment climate, and long-term business planning for international companies in France.
Clean Energy Transition and Investment Surge
India’s clean energy sector is experiencing record growth, with coal power generation falling 3% in 2025 and nearly 50 GW of renewables added. Major policy reforms and global partnerships are attracting substantial investment, positioning India as a leading destination for energy transition capital.
Energy Transition Drives High Costs
Germany’s shift away from Russian energy and nuclear power has resulted in persistently high energy prices and supply insecurity. This undermines industrial competitiveness, deters investment, and increases vulnerability in critical infrastructure, with significant implications for energy-intensive sectors and supply chains.
Renewable Energy and Green Investment Surge
Egypt signed $1.8 billion in renewable energy deals with Norway and China, aiming for 42% renewables by 2030. Major solar and battery projects, supported by international banks, position Egypt as a regional leader in clean energy, attracting technology and finance.
Shifts in Global Capital Flows and FPI Behavior
US monetary policy, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical risks have triggered large-scale foreign portfolio investor outflows from emerging markets, notably India. While US and European investors maintain selective exposure, volatility in currency and bond markets is prompting a reassessment of risk and asset allocation strategies.
Political Stability and Policy Continuity
Brazil’s trade performance benefited from government efforts to maintain stability and promote international agreements. However, political developments, such as investigations into former leaders and ongoing US negotiations, could affect investor confidence and regulatory predictability.
High-Tech Sector Investment and AI Leadership
Israel’s high-tech sector remains a global innovation leader, attracting significant venture capital and multinational investment, including major projects from companies like Nvidia. Government-backed funds and private capital continue to drive growth, though the sector faces talent shifts and must navigate global competition and regulatory scrutiny.
Persistent Political and Corruption Risks
High-profile anti-corruption raids, including against opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, highlight ongoing governance challenges. Political infighting and corruption allegations can delay reforms, undermine EU accession, and complicate the investment climate, despite progress in institutional reforms and external oversight.
Major Gulf Investments Reshape Economy
Qatar’s $3.5 billion initial payment for a $29.7 billion coastal development signals a surge in Gulf investment. These mega-projects offer hard currency and jobs, but raise questions about long-term economic sustainability and the government’s reliance on asset sales.
Reshoring and Supply Chain Realignment
Driven by national security and tariff policy, the US is incentivizing reshoring and ‘friend-shoring’ of manufacturing. This has triggered global supply chain restructuring, with Southeast Asia and Mexico gaining, but also increased operational complexity and costs for multinational firms.
Escalating Western Sanctions Pressure
The US and EU have intensified sanctions on Russia, targeting energy exports and trade partners. New US legislation could impose tariffs up to 500% on countries buying Russian oil, threatening to disrupt global trade flows and complicate supply chains.
Risks From Global Trade Tensions
Vietnam’s open economy is vulnerable to US and EU tariff measures, origin fraud scrutiny, and global demand fluctuations. Heavy dependence on major markets like the US and China poses risks, prompting efforts to diversify exports and strengthen regulatory compliance.