Sanctions tightening and compliance spillovers

EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands maritime services bans, shadow‑fleet listings, bank designations, anti‑circumvention tools, and export/import controls. Firms operating in Ukraine must strengthen counterparty screening, shipping due diligence, and re‑export controls to avoid violations.

US tariff shock and reorientation

Reports indicate a steep US reciprocal tariff (cited at 36%) has raised urgency for export diversification, local value-add, and BOI support measures. Firms face margin pressure, potential order diversion, and renewed interest in rules-of-origin planning and US-facing compliance.

Geoeconomic diversification toward Gulf

Berlin is accelerating diversification of energy and strategic inputs, courting Qatar/Saudi/UAE for LNG and green ammonia. LNG was ~10% of German gas imports in 2025, ~96% from the US, raising concentration risk. New corridors affect contracting and infrastructure plans.

Regulatory tightening in housing finance

Bank of Israel measures cap mortgage maturities at 30 years, tighten repayment ratios, and raise bank capital requirements. This can cool real-estate demand, affect construction supply chains, and influence commercial leasing dynamics as households and developers adjust financing structures and cash flows.

Baht strength, FX intervention bias

Foreign inflows after the election are strengthening the baht, while the Bank of Thailand signals willingness to manage excessive volatility and scrutinize gold-linked flows. A stronger currency squeezes exporters’ margins and complicates regional supply-chain cost planning and hedging strategies.

Escalating energy grid disruption

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are driving nationwide power rationing, forcing factory downtime, higher generator and fuel imports, and unstable cold-chain logistics. Grid repairs are slow due to scarce transformers and long lead times, raising operating costs and continuity risk.

US–China trade recalibration persists

Tariffs, technology barriers and geopolitical bargaining are shifting bilateral flows from simple surplus trade toward a more complex pattern. China–US goods trade fell 18.2% in 2025 to 4.01 trillion yuan ($578bn). Firms respond via localization, alternative sourcing, and hedged market access planning.

Logistics upgrades and multimodal corridors

Dedicated Freight Corridors, Gati Shakti cargo terminals, port connectivity and new national waterways aim to reduce transit times and logistics costs. Firms can redesign distribution networks, but should factor land acquisition delays, last-mile bottlenecks, and regulatory fragmentation.

USMCA review and regional risk

The coming USMCA review is a material downside risk for North American supply chains, with potential counter-tariffs and compliance changes. Canada’s central bank flags U.S.-driven policy volatility; businesses may defer capex, adjust sourcing, and build contingency inventory across the region.

Disaster and BCP-driven supply chains

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather is pushing stricter business-continuity planning and inventory strategies. Companies are investing in automated, earthquake-resilient logistics hubs and longer lead-time services to dampen disruption risk, affecting warehousing footprints, insurance costs, and supplier qualification.

Rising wages and labor tightness

Regular wages rose 3.09% in 2025 to NT$47,884, with electronics overtime at 27.9 hours—highest in 46 years—reflecting AI-driven demand and labor constraints. Cost inflation and capacity bottlenecks may pressure contract terms, automation capex, and talent retention strategies.

الخصخصة وإعادة هيكلة الشركات الحكومية

تسريع برنامج تقليص دور الدولة عبر إعداد 60 شركة: نقل 40 لصندوق مصر السيادي وتجهيز 20 للقيد/الطرح في البورصة، مع إنشاء منصب نائب رئيس وزراء للشؤون الاقتصادية. ذلك يخلق فرص استحواذ وشراكات، لكنه يتطلب وضوحاً في الحوكمة والتقييمات وحقوق المستثمرين.

Gaza border operations and disruption risk

Rafah crossing reopening is proceeding with tight security screening and limited volumes (initially ~150–200 people/day), affecting movement and regional stability perceptions. Escalation or administrative disputes can disrupt Sinai logistics, labor mobility, and investor risk appetite.

Fiscalización digital y aduanas

El SAT intensifica auditorías basadas en CFDI y cruces automatizados, priorizando “factureras”, subvaluación y comercio exterior. Se reporta enfoque en aduanas (27,1% de ingresos tributarios) y nuevas facultades/visitas rápidas, elevando riesgos de bloqueo operativo, devoluciones y multas.

Monetary policy volatility persists

Bank Rate held at 3.75% after a narrow 5–4 vote, with inflation around 3.4% and cuts debated for March–April. Shifting rate expectations affect sterling, refinancing costs, property and M&A valuations, and working-capital planning for importers and exporters.

Défense: hausse des dépenses 2026

Le budget 2026 prévoit 57,2 Md€ pour les armées (+13%) et une actualisation de la LPM attendue au printemps. Opportunités: marchés défense, cybersécurité, drones; contraintes: conformité export, priorités industrielles, tensions sur capacités et main-d’œuvre.

Institutional and legal-policy volatility

Moves by the legislature to influence Constitutional Court appointments and broader governance debates underscore institutional risk. For investors, this can translate into less predictable judicial review, permitting outcomes, and enforcement consistency—especially in regulated sectors like mining, environment, and infrastructure.

Startup export momentum in deeptech

Finnish startups’ export revenues reportedly exceeded €10bn, reinforcing Finland as a scalable base for XR/simulation software and B2B platforms. For investors, deal flow is improving, though valuations, talent competition, and reliance on EU funding cycles influence entry timing and portfolio strategy.

US–Taiwan tariff deal reshapes trade

A pending reciprocal tariff arrangement would reduce US tariffs on many Taiwanese goods (reported 20% to 15%) and grant semiconductors MFN treatment under Section 232. In exchange, large Taiwan investment pledges could shift sourcing and pricing dynamics for exporters.

US tariffs hit German exports

New US tariff measures are reducing German competitiveness: exports to the US fell 9.3% in 2025 to ~€147bn and the bilateral surplus narrowed to €52.2bn. Firms should reassess pricing, localization and route-to-market for North America.

China-border trade integration risks

Northern localities and China’s Guangxi are expanding cross-border trade, e-commerce and agri flows; Guangxi-Vietnam agri trade reached ~CNY18.23bn in 2025. Benefits include faster market access, but firms must manage geopolitical exposure, border policy shifts, and compliance with origin/traceability.

US tariffs hit German exports

US baseline 15% EU duty is biting: Germany’s 2025 exports to the United States fell 9.3% to about €147bn; the bilateral surplus dropped to €52.2bn. Automakers, machinery and chemicals face margin pressure, reshoring decisions, and supply-chain reconfiguration.

إعادة تشكيل الحكومة وملفات الاستثمار

تعديل وزاري ركّز على الحقائب الاقتصادية واستحداث/فصل وزارات الاستثمار والتجارة الخارجية والتخطيط والصناعة. التغييرات قد تُسرّع تراخيص المشاريع وتحسين بيئة الأعمال، لكنها تخلق فترة انتقالية في السياسات والتنفيذ، ما يستدعي متابعة قرارات الرسوم، التراخيص، والحوافز القطاعية.

Sanctions escalation, maritime compliance

UK and partners continue expanding Russia-related sanctions and are considering tougher maritime actions against “shadow fleet” tankers. UK measures target LNG shipping services and designated energy firms, raising due-diligence burdens for traders, insurers, shipping, and commodity supply chains.

Critical minerals processing incentives

India plans incentives for lithium and nickel processing, including ~15% capex subsidies from April 2026 and capped sales-linked support, initially for four projects. This reshapes EV-battery and clean-tech sourcing, reducing China dependence but requiring partners with technology, ESG compliance, and long lead times.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

Critical minerals and rare earth push

India is building rare earth mineral corridors and magnet incentives (₹7,280 crore) to cut reliance on China (over 45% of needs). Tariff cuts on monazite and processing inputs support downstream EV/renewables supply chains, but execution and permitting remain key risks.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

Regional Security and Trade Corridors

Turkey’s role in the Black Sea and Middle East connectivity agenda is growing, but regional conflicts keep logistics and insurance risks high. Disruptions can hit maritime routes, trucking corridors and transit times, affecting just-in-time supply chains and prompting inventory and routing diversification.

BRICS e pagamentos em moedas locais

Brasil e Rússia defendem maior uso de moedas nacionais e instrumentos de pagamento no âmbito BRICS, criticando sanções unilaterais. Se avançar, pode reduzir custos de liquidação e risco de dólar em alguns corredores, mas aumenta complexidade de compliance e risco geopolítico.

Domestic demand pivot and policy easing

Beijing is prioritizing consumption-led growth in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30), targeting final consumption above 90 trillion yuan and ~60% of GDP. The PBOC signals “moderately loose” policy and ample liquidity. Impacts include shifting sector opportunities toward services and consumer subsidies.

Monetary easing, inflation volatility

Bank Rate is 3.75% after a close 5–4 vote, with inflation about 3.4% and forecasts near 2% from spring. Shifting rate-cut timing drives sterling moves, refinancing costs, commercial property valuations, and UK project hurdle rates for investors.

Clean-tech investment uncertainty

Major industrial greenfield plans remain volatile as firms reassess EV and battery economics. Stellantis cancelled a subsidized battery plant (over €437m support, up to 2,000 jobs), echoing other paused megaprojects. Investors face policy, demand and permitting uncertainty across clean-tech.

Tariff volatility and trade blocs

Rapid, deal-linked tariff threats and selective rollbacks are making the U.S. a less predictable market-access environment, encouraging partners to deepen non‑U.S. trade blocs. Firms face higher landed costs, rerouted sourcing, and accelerated contract renegotiations.