Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 24, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine is entering a "decisive phase", with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Donald Trump's return to power in the United States has raised concerns about the future of democracy and the impact of his policies on the global economy. Russia has accused the US of using Taiwan to stir up a crisis in Asia, while China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam.

The War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has entered a decisive phase, with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Putin has escalated the conflict by using a new ballistic missile with a range of "several thousand kilometres" against the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. Putin has threatened to strike Western countries that provide military aid to Ukraine, including the UK and the US. Putin has also revised Russia's nuclear doctrine, declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. Russian units fighting in Ukraine, which were previously considered "elite", are now becoming "increasingly obsolete" as a result of Russia's strategy of throwing waves of troops into battle, turning the frontline into a "meat grinder".

North Korea's Oil Imports from Russia

Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. The research suggests that North Korean oil tankers have visited Russia's Vostochny port over 40 times since March, in defiance of international restrictions. These findings are supported by satellite images, Automatic Identification System data, and maritime patrol imagery. The United Nations Security Council caps North Korea's annual refined petroleum imports at 500,000 barrels under sanctions imposed due to its nuclear weapons and missile programmes. However, Pyongyang has continued to exceed this quota through illicit channels, as documented by multiple international watchdogs. Attempts to curb North Korea's activities include a joint task force launched by the US and South Korea earlier this year, aimed at preventing the nation from acquiring illicit oil. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives has been questioned, particularly as UN resolutions have caused divisions among key members.

Russia's Cyber Attacks on the UK and NATO Members

Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Russia won't think twice about targeting British businesses in pursuit of its malign goals, and it is happy to exploit any gap in cyber or physical defences. The threat is real, and Russia is exceptionally aggressive and reckless in the cyber realm. There are gangs of "unofficial hacktivists" and mercenaries not directly under the Kremlin's control, but who are allowed to act with impunity so long as they're not working against Putin's interests. The Cabinet Office minister is expected to set out details of how the UK will seek to boost its protections against emerging cyber threats, as well as how the country is stepping up work with NATO allies. He and senior national security officials will also meet business leaders next week to discuss how they can protect themselves.

China's Dystopian Tech Influence in Vietnam

China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam, with Hanoi's policies regarding social media increasingly following Beijing's lead. Vietnam has positioned itself in recent years as an attractive destination for big tech companies looking to move away from China. However, Hanoi's new digital regulations risk threatening business at an especially precarious time. The country was seen as a major winner from former US president Donald Trump's trade war with China in his first term. However, success during Trump 2.0 is far from certain: The president-elect has threatened much wider tariffs of up to 60 percent on goods from China and 20 percent from everywhere else. That could deal a devastating blow to Vietnam's growth, and it could find itself caught in the crosshairs of greater scrutiny on goods originating from China that pass through its borders. The tariffs could cut Vietnam's economic growth by up to 4 percentage points, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp economists have warned, back to levels at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Themes around the World:

Nationwide Protests and Regime Crisis

Iran faces its largest anti-government protests in years, with over 2,400 deaths and 18,000 arrests reported. The unrest, sparked by economic collapse and currency devaluation, now challenges the regime’s legitimacy, creating severe operational risks for international businesses.

Trade Barriers and Tariff Pressures

Rising U.S. tariffs and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are challenging South Korean exporters, especially in steel, auto parts, and electronics. These barriers threaten price competitiveness and require strategic adaptation to evolving global regulatory landscapes.

US-China Relations Remain Volatile

Ongoing tensions and policy reversals in US-China economic relations continue to disrupt trade flows, investment decisions, and technology transfers. Businesses face persistent risk from tariffs, regulatory changes, and unpredictable bilateral negotiations.

Energy Import and Infrastructure Risks

China's recent military exercises simulated blockades targeting Taiwan's ports and energy routes. With 96% of Taiwan's energy imported, any disruption could severely affect manufacturing, logistics, and business continuity, making energy security a key concern for international investors and supply chain managers.

Political Risks Over Government Stability

Threats of government censure over trade policy, especially Mercosur, highlight political volatility. This instability could affect regulatory predictability, investment climate, and long-term business planning for international companies in France.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Acceleration

CPEC Phase 2.0 is being fast-tracked amid global supply chain disruptions and regional security threats. China’s planned $10 billion investment and new infrastructure projects position Pakistan as a pivotal trade gateway, but success hinges on security, regulatory clarity, and regional stability.

Regulatory Overhaul and NGO Restrictions

Israel’s sweeping regulatory changes in 2026 impose stringent requirements on foreign NGOs operating in Gaza and the West Bank, restricting aid and international staff. These measures heighten compliance risks and complicate humanitarian supply chains for global organizations.

Political and Alliance Stability at Risk

The crisis tests the cohesion of NATO and the transatlantic alliance, with economic coercion undermining trust among allies. The UK’s support for Greenland’s sovereignty and collective security is at odds with US demands, raising diplomatic and security risks for international businesses.

Rapid Export Growth And Surplus

Vietnam achieved an 18% year-on-year trade growth in 2025, with exports reaching $475 billion and a trade surplus over $20 billion. This robust export performance, led by processed goods, strengthens macroeconomic stability and investor confidence, supporting supply chain resilience.

Infrastructure Expansion and PPP Projects

Major infrastructure projects, such as São Paulo’s Line 6 metro, are advancing via public-private partnerships. These initiatives aim to address logistical bottlenecks, but face cost overruns and delays, impacting supply chains and investment timelines for both domestic and foreign businesses.

Energy Infrastructure Under Severe Strain

Russian attacks have devastated Ukraine’s power grid, causing widespread outages and a declared energy emergency. Persistent winter conditions and infrastructure damage disrupt business operations, threaten supply chains, and require urgent imports and international support for repairs and resilience.

Fossil Fuel Expansion And Energy Policy

The Trump administration’s aggressive push for fossil fuels, including efforts to control Venezuela’s oil reserves and rollback of environmental regulations, signals a durable tilt against clean energy. This shift may hinder the US energy transition and cede global clean-tech leadership to China.

GCC Integration and Strategic Partnerships

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) advanced regional unity, security, and economic integration in 2025, with joint defense, customs, and infrastructure projects. Saudi Arabia’s role in the GCC enhances its global influence and stability, supporting cross-border trade and investment.

Investment Stagnation and Infrastructure Cuts

Sanctions and war have led to a 20% cut in Russian rail investment and stagnating GDP, with industrial output declining. Foreign direct investment is constrained, and infrastructure projects face delays, raising long-term risks for investors and operators.

Renewable Energy Transition and Partnerships

Indonesia is accelerating its energy transition through partnerships, such as Pertamina’s collaboration with China’s GCL on renewable projects. These initiatives support emissions reduction targets and energy resilience, but effective implementation and technology transfer remain key for long-term competitiveness.

Regional Alliance Shifts and Japan’s Role

Japan has signaled that a Taiwan contingency could trigger its own collective self-defense, linking its security directly to Taiwan’s fate. This evolving regional alliance landscape increases the complexity of risk for international businesses, with potential for broader conflict and supply chain disruptions.

Export Controls and Tech Rivalry Intensify

US export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI technology have spurred China’s drive for tech self-reliance, while exemptions for firms like Samsung highlight geopolitical maneuvering. These measures reshape global supply chains and innovation ecosystems.

Energy Transition and LNG Import Surge

Egypt’s domestic gas production decline has led to record LNG imports—over 9 million metric tons in 2025—mainly from the US and Qatar. New energy deals and infrastructure are reshaping Egypt’s energy mix, with a strategic pivot toward renewables and regional energy hub ambitions.

Food Self-Sufficiency and Export Shift

Indonesia will halt rice and sugar imports in 2026, relying on robust domestic production and reserves. The government aims to export rice and corn, marking a strategic shift toward food sovereignty and new export opportunities for agribusiness and logistics.

Canadian LNG Expansion and Global Energy Role

Canada is accelerating LNG export capacity, aiming to become a top-six global exporter by 2030. Multiple projects are underway, but face challenges from global supply gluts, environmental opposition, and Indigenous stakeholder negotiations, affecting long-term investment and trade opportunities.

Strained UK-EU-US Trade Agreements

The tariff dispute endangers the recently negotiated US-EU and UK-US trade agreements. The EU may suspend ratification, and uncertainty over future market access is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring, undermining long-term strategic planning for UK-based multinationals.

Escalating US-China Trade Rivalry

The US-China economic relationship remains the most consequential global business risk, with ongoing tariffs, selective decoupling, and technology export controls. These measures disrupt supply chains, accelerate China’s tech self-sufficiency, and force multinationals to reassess market and sourcing strategies.

Foreign Investment Trends and Regulatory Hurdles

Foreign direct investment, especially from Japan, is rising in Australian real estate and infrastructure, driven by housing undersupply and growth prospects. However, complex regulatory processes and development approvals present challenges, requiring strategic navigation for international investors.

Strategic Shift Toward Indo-German Partnership

Germany is deepening its economic and strategic ties with India, signing 19 agreements in 2026 covering defence, semiconductors, critical minerals, and green energy. This shift aims to diversify supply chains, foster innovation, and reduce dependence on China, with bilateral trade exceeding $50 billion.

Energy Security and Geopolitical Intervention

The US’s assertive energy doctrine, exemplified by intervention in Venezuela, reflects a strategy to secure hydrocarbon dominance and counter rivals like China and Russia. This approach influences global energy markets, supply chain decisions, and investment risks in resource-rich regions.

Political Pressure on Federal Reserve Escalates

President Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including legal threats against Chair Powell, have raised concerns about central bank independence. This politicization risks 1970s-style inflation, market volatility, and diminished global investor confidence in US monetary policy.

Reshoring and Supply Chain Realignment

Driven by national security and tariff policy, the US is incentivizing reshoring and ‘friend-shoring’ of manufacturing. This has triggered global supply chain restructuring, with Southeast Asia and Mexico gaining, but also increased operational complexity and costs for multinational firms.

Major Infrastructure Investments Underway

Significant public funding is being directed toward infrastructure, notably the £3 billion Lower Thames Crossing and expanded broadband rollout. These projects aim to boost productivity, alleviate supply chain bottlenecks, and attract investment, but execution risks remain.

US Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty

Ongoing US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, linked to Russian oil imports and stalled trade negotiations, are disrupting exports—especially textiles, gems, and leather. This uncertainty pressures supply chains, currency stability, and investment planning, compelling Indian exporters to diversify markets and production bases.

Geopolitical Risk: U.S.-China Rivalry and Canadian Autonomy

Canada’s efforts to balance relations with both the U.S. and China expose businesses to geopolitical risks, including retaliatory tariffs, regulatory shifts, and political pressure. The evolving stance on ‘strategic autonomy’ will shape future trade, investment, and supply chain resilience.

Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Bond Market Concerns

Germany’s fiscal expansion—over €850 billion in new debt planned this decade—has raised the debt-to-GDP ratio toward 90%. Bond markets are signaling concern, with risk premiums on German Bunds rising and capital shifting to other EU countries, reflecting doubts about long-term fiscal sustainability.

Complex China-Australia Relationship Persists

Despite trade frictions, China remains Australia’s largest trading partner. Bilateral relations have stabilized post-2022, but strategic tensions over security, critical minerals, and regional influence continue to shape business risk and investment decisions.

Manufacturing and FDI Surge Amid PLI Schemes

India attracted $51 billion in FDI in six months, driven by government incentives, PLI schemes, and a focus on advanced manufacturing. Sectors like semiconductors, EVs, and electronics are seeing robust investment, strengthening India’s position as a global manufacturing hub.

Critical China-Iran Energy Nexus

China purchases over 80% of Iran’s oil, often via independent refiners and shadow fleets to evade sanctions. Any escalation in US pressure or Iranian instability could disrupt this flow, affecting global energy security and bilateral trade dynamics.

Major US-Indonesia Trade Agreement

Indonesia is finalizing a trade deal with the United States, expected to reduce tariffs from 32% to 19%. This agreement will enhance market access, boost exports, and reshape bilateral trade dynamics, offering significant opportunities for international investors.

Critical Minerals Strategy Gains Momentum

Australia is advancing government-backed initiatives to support rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to reduce China’s dominance in supply chains and strengthen partnerships with the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea, impacting global investment and technology flows.