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Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 24, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine is entering a "decisive phase", with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Donald Trump's return to power in the United States has raised concerns about the future of democracy and the impact of his policies on the global economy. Russia has accused the US of using Taiwan to stir up a crisis in Asia, while China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam.

The War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has entered a decisive phase, with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Putin has escalated the conflict by using a new ballistic missile with a range of "several thousand kilometres" against the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. Putin has threatened to strike Western countries that provide military aid to Ukraine, including the UK and the US. Putin has also revised Russia's nuclear doctrine, declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. Russian units fighting in Ukraine, which were previously considered "elite", are now becoming "increasingly obsolete" as a result of Russia's strategy of throwing waves of troops into battle, turning the frontline into a "meat grinder".

North Korea's Oil Imports from Russia

Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. The research suggests that North Korean oil tankers have visited Russia's Vostochny port over 40 times since March, in defiance of international restrictions. These findings are supported by satellite images, Automatic Identification System data, and maritime patrol imagery. The United Nations Security Council caps North Korea's annual refined petroleum imports at 500,000 barrels under sanctions imposed due to its nuclear weapons and missile programmes. However, Pyongyang has continued to exceed this quota through illicit channels, as documented by multiple international watchdogs. Attempts to curb North Korea's activities include a joint task force launched by the US and South Korea earlier this year, aimed at preventing the nation from acquiring illicit oil. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives has been questioned, particularly as UN resolutions have caused divisions among key members.

Russia's Cyber Attacks on the UK and NATO Members

Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Russia won't think twice about targeting British businesses in pursuit of its malign goals, and it is happy to exploit any gap in cyber or physical defences. The threat is real, and Russia is exceptionally aggressive and reckless in the cyber realm. There are gangs of "unofficial hacktivists" and mercenaries not directly under the Kremlin's control, but who are allowed to act with impunity so long as they're not working against Putin's interests. The Cabinet Office minister is expected to set out details of how the UK will seek to boost its protections against emerging cyber threats, as well as how the country is stepping up work with NATO allies. He and senior national security officials will also meet business leaders next week to discuss how they can protect themselves.

China's Dystopian Tech Influence in Vietnam

China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam, with Hanoi's policies regarding social media increasingly following Beijing's lead. Vietnam has positioned itself in recent years as an attractive destination for big tech companies looking to move away from China. However, Hanoi's new digital regulations risk threatening business at an especially precarious time. The country was seen as a major winner from former US president Donald Trump's trade war with China in his first term. However, success during Trump 2.0 is far from certain: The president-elect has threatened much wider tariffs of up to 60 percent on goods from China and 20 percent from everywhere else. That could deal a devastating blow to Vietnam's growth, and it could find itself caught in the crosshairs of greater scrutiny on goods originating from China that pass through its borders. The tariffs could cut Vietnam's economic growth by up to 4 percentage points, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp economists have warned, back to levels at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Further Reading:

As Ukraine Fires U.S. Missiles, Putin Sends a Chilling Message - The New York Times

China’s dystopian tech influence grows in Vietnam - 台北時報

Once ‘elite’ Russian units becoming ‘obsolete’ due to Putin’s strategy in Ukraine, war analysts say - The Independent

Op-ed: Donald Trump: the United States’ president, the world’s headache - The Huntington News

Putin threatens UK with new ballistic missile as Ukraine war escalates - The Independent

Russia prepared to launch cyber attacks on UK, minister to warn - The Independent

Russia says US using Taiwan to stir crisis in Asia By Reuters - Investing.com

Russia-Ukraine war sees another 'dangerous cycle' as threats escalate - Sky News

Satellite images show North Korea broke sanctions to get Russian oil - The Independent

Threat of world war is ‘serious and real’ Poland says as Putin steps up threats against West - The Independent

World war threat is serious and real, warns Poland - The Independent

Themes around the World:

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Electronics Supply Chain Deepening

India’s electronics sector is moving beyond assembly into component exports and semiconductor manufacturing, supported by PLI, ECMS and SEZ reforms. TATA’s ₹91,000 crore fab and rising Apple-linked exports signal stronger localisation, higher value addition and new supplier opportunities.

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Ports and Rail Recovery

Transnet’s turnaround and logistics reform are improving export throughput, with March bulk exports up 11.8% year on year to 17.1Mt. Yet rail bottlenecks, delayed manganese corridor upgrades and concession execution still constrain mining, agriculture and container supply chains.

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Inflation Rates Stay Elevated

Regional conflict has pushed inflation back up to 15.2% in March, while economists see average inflation at 13.5% in FY2025/26 and lending rates near 20%. High financing costs and weaker consumer purchasing power weigh on investment returns and demand forecasts.

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Farm input inflation and protests

Soaring fuel and fertilizer costs have reignited farmer unrest, with non-road diesel prices in some cases doubling and sector aid still contested. Agribusiness supply chains face disruption risks, pressure for further subsidies, and heightened sensitivity around food prices.

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Suez Canal Revenue Weakness

Red Sea insecurity continues to suppress canal earnings despite partial recovery. Quarterly Suez revenues reached $1.15 billion, still far below the $2.4 billion recorded before shipping disruptions, affecting foreign-exchange inflows, maritime routing economics, and Egypt’s trade-linked fiscal position.

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Non-Oil Export Expansion Accelerates

Saudi non-oil exports reached a record SR624 billion in 2025, up 15%, with their share of total exports rising to 44%. Growth in services, re-exports, machinery, fertilizers, and food signals broader manufacturing and trade diversification opportunities beyond hydrocarbons.

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Technology Controls and Sanctions

China’s restrictions on seven European entities over Taiwan arms links show how Taiwan-related tensions increasingly trigger export controls on dual-use goods, rare earths, and advanced components. Businesses face higher compliance burdens, supplier substitution costs, and greater risk of politically driven trade interruptions.

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Energy market integration push

Legislation on electricity-market integration, renewables permits and energy liberalization is advancing Ukraine’s alignment with the European market. This supports future cross-border power trade and investment, but implementation remains vulnerable to war damage, delayed funding and regulatory slippage during accession-linked reforms.

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Trade remedies raising input costs

Australia lifted tariffs on Chinese steel reinforcing bar to 24% from 19% after anti-dumping findings. While supporting domestic manufacturers, higher trade barriers may increase construction costs, add inflation pressure, and affect project economics for investors across real estate, infrastructure, and industrial sectors.

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Tariff Circumvention Drives Enforcement

Roughly $300 billion of tariffed goods are estimated to reach the U.S. via Southeast Asia and Mexico, with suspicious transactions up 76% in early 2025. That is increasing customs scrutiny, origin-verification risk, and exposure to penalties for companies relying on transshipment or complex multi-country assembly structures.

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EU-China trade retaliation exposure

China has warned of retaliation if the EU tightens local-content and foreign-investment rules for batteries, EVs, solar and raw materials. France is exposed through cognac, pork, dairy and battery supply chains, increasing export risk and sourcing uncertainty for China-linked businesses.

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China Exposure and Strategic De-risking

German leaders are pushing tougher foreign investment protection, local-content rules and wider trade diversification as dependence on China, Russia and the US is reassessed. Businesses should expect stricter screening, supply-chain reconfiguration and greater emphasis on European sourcing in strategic sectors.

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Energy Transition and Data Center Buildout

Indonesia is courting AI and hyperscale investment through data localization, lower land and power costs, and large digital demand, while targeting 100 GW of solar by 2029. Reliable cleaner electricity will increasingly shape data center, industrial, and advanced manufacturing location choices.

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Real Estate Rules Shape Investment

Foreign capital is increasingly targeting logistics, data centers, industrial property, and income-generating assets, supported by infrastructure growth. Yet land-use procedures, project approvals, and profit repatriation rules still create friction, affecting site selection, market entry timing, and capital deployment.

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Nearshoring Accelerates to Mexico

U.S. trade policy is accelerating nearshoring and regionalization, especially toward Mexico and North America. Logistics firms report rising cross-border demand, more use of bonded and Foreign Trade Zone facilities, and redesign of distribution networks as companies seek resilience against policy and sourcing shocks.

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Defence Buildup Reshaping Industry

Canberra will add A$53 billion to defence over a decade, while AUKUS submarine and infrastructure costs have climbed as high as A$96 billion for ten years. This supports shipbuilding, drones and missiles, but may crowd public finances and tighten skilled-labour markets.

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Privatization Drive Attracts Capital

Egypt is accelerating state asset sales and listings to raise foreign capital, deepen markets, and expand private-sector participation. Government reporting says $6 billion has been raised from 19 exit deals, while fresh IPOs and petroleum listings could create new entry points for investors.

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Shipbuilding Expands Overseas Footprint

South Korean shipbuilders are winning strong orders and expanding capacity abroad to counter Chinese competition. HD Korea Shipbuilding has secured $8.21 billion in orders this year, while new investments in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines could reshape regional sourcing and partnership models.

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Turkey As Regional Hub

The government is expanding tax incentives to attract foreign firms, traders and financial institutions, positioning Istanbul as a safer regional base. Interest from Gulf and Asian investors is rising, but high inflation, legal uncertainty and bureaucracy still temper execution and long-term confidence.

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China trade stabilisation with friction

Canberra is rebuilding practical cooperation with Beijing, including fuel talks and additional beef export licences, yet exposure remains high. Chinese quotas and a 55% beef tariff after quota exhaustion, plus wider policy unpredictability, continue to shape export and pricing risk.

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Tariff Volatility Reshapes Trade

Frequent changes in U.S. tariffs remain the biggest driver of trade uncertainty, raising landed costs, delaying sourcing decisions, and distorting freight flows. Effective tariff rates remain historically elevated, while new Section 232 and 301 actions risk further cost inflation and retaliatory disruption.

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Agricultural sovereignty and import controls

Paris advanced an emergency agriculture bill combining stricter checks on imports, potential bans on residues from EU-banned pesticides, EU sourcing rules for public canteens, and water-storage easing. Agrifood traders should expect tighter standards, political scrutiny, and sourcing adjustments.

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US Tariffs Reshape Export Flows

Exports to the United States fell 9.1% in March and 18.7% in Q1 after 2025 tariff hikes. With 22% of Brazilian exports still affected, manufacturers and exporters face margin pressure, market diversification costs and weaker North American sales visibility.

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Battery and Critical Minerals Buildout

France is deepening its battery ecosystem through lithium, cathode materials, and logistics investments, including Imerys’ 34,000-tonne lithium hydroxide project and Axens’ €500 million materials plant. The buildout strengthens European supply resilience, but execution and competitiveness challenges remain significant.

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US-China Tech Controls Escalate

The United States is tightening technology restrictions on China through export controls, chip-equipment legislation, and shifting licensing rules, while Beijing weighs countermeasures in semiconductors, solar equipment, and critical minerals. Multinationals face rising compliance burdens, supplier concentration risks, and potential disruption across electronics, energy, and advanced manufacturing.

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Vision 2030 project reprioritization

Fiscal pressure and weaker foreign capital are forcing reviews and scaling adjustments across flagship projects, including Neom and Red Sea developments. Reported war-related losses above $10 billion raise execution risk for contractors, suppliers, investors, and firms targeting Saudi demand linked to megaproject pipelines.

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Migration tightening affects labour

Planned migration reforms targeting net migration of 225,000, tighter student and temporary-entry rules, and stronger enforcement against worker exploitation could ease housing pressure but also constrain labour availability, increase recruitment costs, and affect education, agriculture, hospitality, and regional employers.

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Labor Tightness Constrains Operations

Immigration restrictions and enforcement are shrinking labor supply in hospitality, agriculture, logistics, and construction-adjacent roles. Employers report over 900,000 vacant restaurant and hotel jobs, raising wage pressure, slowing expansion, and increasing automation incentives across labor-intensive business models.

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Logistics Constraints Hit Export Capacity

Sanctions on shipping, insurance and financing continue to restrict Russia’s export efficiency, especially in LNG and coal. Arctic LNG 2 remains underutilized due to tanker shortages and unwilling buyers, while higher freight and rail tariffs erode margins and delivery reliability.

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Risco fiscal e arrecadação

O governo busca superávit primário em 2027 via maior arrecadação, revisão de incentivos e contenção de gastos. A receita líquida já alcançou R$ 2,57 trilhões, ou 18,3% do PIB, elevando incerteza sobre carga tributária, incentivos setoriais e previsibilidade regulatória.

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US Metal Tariffs Escalate

New U.S. rules now apply 25% tariffs to the full value of many steel, aluminum, and copper-based products, sharply increasing costs for Canadian manufacturers. Companies report cancelled orders, suspended forecasts, and potential production shifts, undermining cross-border supply chains and investment decisions.

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Offshore Wind Investment Expansion

The Crown Estate plans a new offshore wind leasing round in 2027 with around 6GW or more capacity, potentially creating up to 10,000 direct jobs and adding over £12 billion. This supports long-term energy security, infrastructure investment, and domestic clean-tech supply-chain opportunities.

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China Exposure Drives Diversification

Berlin is reassessing dependence on China amid trade deficits, raw-material concerns, and industrial overcapacity. German exports to China rose only 2.1% in 2024, imports fell 4.3%, and direct investment dropped 18%, encouraging nearshoring, supply-chain diversification, and tighter scrutiny in strategic sectors.

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IMF Reform Conditionality Deepens

Pakistan’s $7 billion IMF program now carries 75 conditions, including a FY2026-27 budget aligned to a 2% primary surplus, broader taxation, procurement reform, forex liberalization and SEZ incentive phaseouts, reshaping operating costs, investment assumptions and market access conditions.

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Trade Remedies Export Pressure

Vietnamese exporters face rising trade-remedy risk in key markets. Australia is considering anti-dumping action on galvanised steel, while broader origin and overcapacity scrutiny in Western markets could affect pricing, customs treatment, and diversification plans for manufacturers using Vietnam as an export base.

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Hormuz Chokepoint Shipping Disruption

Iran’s de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz has sharply disrupted regional shipping, with only a fraction of normal traffic moving and some vessels reportedly paying transit fees. The chokepoint risk is raising freight, insurance, energy, and delivery costs globally.