Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 24, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The war in Ukraine is entering a "decisive phase", with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Donald Trump's return to power in the United States has raised concerns about the future of democracy and the impact of his policies on the global economy. Russia has accused the US of using Taiwan to stir up a crisis in Asia, while China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam.
The War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has entered a decisive phase, with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Putin has escalated the conflict by using a new ballistic missile with a range of "several thousand kilometres" against the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. Putin has threatened to strike Western countries that provide military aid to Ukraine, including the UK and the US. Putin has also revised Russia's nuclear doctrine, declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. Russian units fighting in Ukraine, which were previously considered "elite", are now becoming "increasingly obsolete" as a result of Russia's strategy of throwing waves of troops into battle, turning the frontline into a "meat grinder".
North Korea's Oil Imports from Russia
Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. The research suggests that North Korean oil tankers have visited Russia's Vostochny port over 40 times since March, in defiance of international restrictions. These findings are supported by satellite images, Automatic Identification System data, and maritime patrol imagery. The United Nations Security Council caps North Korea's annual refined petroleum imports at 500,000 barrels under sanctions imposed due to its nuclear weapons and missile programmes. However, Pyongyang has continued to exceed this quota through illicit channels, as documented by multiple international watchdogs. Attempts to curb North Korea's activities include a joint task force launched by the US and South Korea earlier this year, aimed at preventing the nation from acquiring illicit oil. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives has been questioned, particularly as UN resolutions have caused divisions among key members.
Russia's Cyber Attacks on the UK and NATO Members
Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Russia won't think twice about targeting British businesses in pursuit of its malign goals, and it is happy to exploit any gap in cyber or physical defences. The threat is real, and Russia is exceptionally aggressive and reckless in the cyber realm. There are gangs of "unofficial hacktivists" and mercenaries not directly under the Kremlin's control, but who are allowed to act with impunity so long as they're not working against Putin's interests. The Cabinet Office minister is expected to set out details of how the UK will seek to boost its protections against emerging cyber threats, as well as how the country is stepping up work with NATO allies. He and senior national security officials will also meet business leaders next week to discuss how they can protect themselves.
China's Dystopian Tech Influence in Vietnam
China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam, with Hanoi's policies regarding social media increasingly following Beijing's lead. Vietnam has positioned itself in recent years as an attractive destination for big tech companies looking to move away from China. However, Hanoi's new digital regulations risk threatening business at an especially precarious time. The country was seen as a major winner from former US president Donald Trump's trade war with China in his first term. However, success during Trump 2.0 is far from certain: The president-elect has threatened much wider tariffs of up to 60 percent on goods from China and 20 percent from everywhere else. That could deal a devastating blow to Vietnam's growth, and it could find itself caught in the crosshairs of greater scrutiny on goods originating from China that pass through its borders. The tariffs could cut Vietnam's economic growth by up to 4 percentage points, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp economists have warned, back to levels at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further Reading:
As Ukraine Fires U.S. Missiles, Putin Sends a Chilling Message - The New York Times
China’s dystopian tech influence grows in Vietnam - 台北時報
Op-ed: Donald Trump: the United States’ president, the world’s headache - The Huntington News
Putin threatens UK with new ballistic missile as Ukraine war escalates - The Independent
Russia prepared to launch cyber attacks on UK, minister to warn - The Independent
Russia says US using Taiwan to stir crisis in Asia By Reuters - Investing.com
Russia-Ukraine war sees another 'dangerous cycle' as threats escalate - Sky News
Satellite images show North Korea broke sanctions to get Russian oil - The Independent
World war threat is serious and real, warns Poland - The Independent
Themes around the World:
Fiscal Expansion and Budget Strains
Berlin’s 2027 budget framework combines heavy borrowing, defense growth and infrastructure spending, but leaves roughly €140 billion in financing gaps through 2030. For investors, this means stronger public procurement opportunities alongside rising tax, subsidy and borrowing uncertainty.
Tax Base Expansion and Budget Pressure
The FY27 budget is expected to broaden taxation into agriculture, retail, real estate, IT and export income, while targeting a 2% primary surplus. With tax collection at Rs11.735 trillion versus a Rs12.3 trillion target, businesses should prepare for heavier documentation and compliance burdens.
Commodity Price Volatility Rising
Indonesia’s importance in nickel and palm oil means domestic policy shifts now transmit quickly into global prices. Recent nickel gains to US$19,540 per ton and potential palm export reductions increase hedging needs, contract complexity, and supply-chain resilience requirements for international firms.
Fuel Security Stockpiling Expansion
Australia will spend A$10 billion to build a government fuel reserve of about 1 billion litres and lift minimum stockholding requirements, targeting at least 50 days of onshore supply. The policy improves resilience but may reshape logistics, storage, and importer compliance costs.
Logistics Capacity Faces Squeeze
Transport and logistics operators report severe cost stress from fuel spikes, weak demand, and labor shortages, especially among SMEs. Germany is missing about 120,000 truck drivers, raising insolvency risks and threatening freight capacity, delivery reliability, and distribution costs across supply chains.
Major Investment Incentive Overhaul
Ankara has launched a broad reform package featuring a 9% corporate tax for manufacturing exporters, full tax exemptions for some service exports and transit trade, plus long-term incentives for regional headquarters, materially improving Turkey’s appeal for selected FDI and trade platforms.
Labor Uncertainty in Platform Economy
Conflicting court decisions and stalled legislation on app-based work keep labor classification uncertain, while companies spent over R$50 billion on labor litigation in 2025. The ambiguity increases legal risk, staffing costs, and automation incentives for digital, logistics, and service businesses.
Baht Weakness Energy Exposure
The baht has weakened more than 4% against the dollar since the Iran conflict began, reflecting Thailand's large net oil and gas deficit. Currency volatility, imported inflation and slower growth raise hedging, pricing and working-capital risks for foreign businesses.
Imported Energy and LNG Exposure
Taiwan remains heavily exposed to imported fuel and maritime energy chokepoints. Natural gas supplies cover roughly 11 days, while gas accounts for about half of power generation, leaving manufacturers vulnerable to higher costs, price volatility, and external shipping disruptions.
Fiscal Consolidation and Tax Reform
Brazil’s 2027 budget targets a R$73.2 billion primary surplus, with debt peaking near 87.8% of GDP in 2029. Simultaneously, consumption-tax reform and tighter tax-benefit rules will reshape compliance costs, pricing, margins, and investment planning across sectors.
China Trade Frictions Re-emerging
Anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel rose to 24% on reinforcing bar, and Beijing warned broader tariff use could damage ties. China remains central for iron ore, beef and other exports, so renewed trade friction raises pricing, compliance and market-access risks.
Hormuz Shipping Disruption Risk
Instability in the Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate trade threat. Traffic has collapsed on some days, vessels have reversed course after attacks, and roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows normally transit the chokepoint, amplifying freight, insurance, and delivery uncertainty.
Multi-front conflict security risk
Ongoing confrontation involving Gaza, Iran, Hezbollah and Red Sea spillovers continues to disrupt logistics, staffing and investor planning. Businesses face elevated contingency costs, air-travel interruptions, project delays and sudden operational restrictions tied to security alerts and military escalation.
Iran Sanctions Hit Energy Trade
Expanded US sanctions on Iran-linked networks and Chinese buyers are widening secondary-sanctions exposure for banks, refiners, shippers and insurers. With China buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil, enforcement can disrupt energy flows, payments, freight routes and broader commercial relationships.
Energy Security Drives Investment
Energy infrastructure remains a core business risk and investment opportunity. Ukraine needs at least €5.4 billion before winter to restore 6.5 GW, while private investors are funding decentralized renewables, storage, and grid upgrades to reduce blackout exposure.
Energy exports support regional role
Israel’s gas exports remain strategically important, especially to Egypt, which expects May imports from Israel to rise 21% to 32.56 million cubic meters daily. This strengthens Israel’s regional energy position, but infrastructure dependence also leaves trade flows exposed to geopolitical shocks.
USMCA Tariffs Here to Stay
Washington has signaled automotive, steel and aluminum tariffs will persist through the 2026 USMCA review. Mexico sent over 2.8 million of 4 million vehicles produced in 2024 to the United States, so enduring duties will materially alter pricing, margins and investment planning.
Energy-Linked Trade Structuring
Energy is becoming a central lever in India’s external economic negotiations, especially with the US, where India has indicated possible purchases worth $500 billion over five years. That could affect commodity sourcing, shipping flows, trade balances and long-term industrial input costs.
Critical Minerals Value-Chain Nationalism
Brazil is tightening oversight of rare earths, lithium, nickel and graphite, demanding domestic processing, technology transfer, and greater state scrutiny of strategic deals. This creates major opportunities in downstream investment, but raises approval, ownership, and execution risks.
Reconstruction PPPs Gain Momentum
Ukraine is actively building pipelines for concessions, public-private partnerships, and strategic asset financing in ports, logistics, rail, and energy. Projects around Chornomorsk terminals, Ukrzaliznytsia, and state energy assets signal concrete entry points for international capital.
Inflation and cost escalation
Fuel, food, rent and airfares are rising again, lifting business costs and weakening consumer purchasing power. April inflation was projected at 1.3%-1.5%, pushing annual inflation above 2% and reducing scope for rate cuts, with implications for financing and demand.
SEZ-Led Industrial Expansion Accelerates
Jakarta is using Special Economic Zones to attract smelter, battery-material, and advanced processing investment. Authorities project US$47.36 billion in nickel-downstream investment and 180,600 jobs by 2030, creating opportunities but also execution, infrastructure, and permitting challenges for investors.
Energy Price and Tariff Shock
Rising oil prices linked to Middle East conflict, plus IMF-mandated gas and power tariff adjustments from FY27, are lifting fuel, electricity, freight and insurance costs. That materially raises manufacturing, transport and cold-chain expenses across Pakistan-based supply chains and import-dependent sectors.
CUSMA Review and Tariff Uncertainty
Canada’s top business risk is rising uncertainty around the July 1 CUSMA review, as U.S. demands on dairy, digital policy and China exposure collide with existing Section 232 tariffs, weakening investment visibility across autos, metals, energy and cross-border manufacturing.
Humanitarian Access And Border Frictions
Aid delivery and movement through crossings such as Rafah remain inconsistent, with reports that agreed humanitarian flows are still unmet. These bottlenecks deepen reputational, legal and operational risks for firms exposed to healthcare, transport, relief supply chains, or politically sensitive procurement relationships.
Mining Upside Hinges On Logistics
Mining production rose 9.7% year on year in February, while bulk exports increased 13.4% in the first quarter. However, the sector remains heavily exposed to Transnet performance, high administered prices, and road haulage inefficiencies that erode export competitiveness.
Economic Slowdown and Tight Credit
Russia’s GDP fell 1.8% in January-February, the budget deficit reached 4.58 trillion rubles in the first quarter, and the central bank kept rates high at 14.5%, undermining investment, corporate profitability, domestic demand and payment reliability.
Budget Consolidation Shapes Demand
The 2026/27 budget prioritizes debt reduction, fiscal stability, and targeted support for production, exports, and households. Authorities aim to cut foreign debt by $1–2 billion, reduce debt-to-GDP to 78%, and lift revenues 30%, affecting taxes, procurement, and public spending patterns.
Payment Frictions and Financial Isolation
New EU measures target 20 more Russian banks, crypto platforms, RUBx and the digital rouble, deepening financial isolation. Cross-border settlements are increasingly routed through alternative channels, raising counterparty, sanctions, transaction-cost and payment-delay risks for companies serving Russia-adjacent trade corridors.
Regulatory Controls Tighten Further
The Russian state is tightening intervention across digital platforms, data and foreign business operations. New rules empower Roskomnadzor to penalize foreign intermediary platforms from October 2026, reinforcing a harsher operating environment marked by censorship, localization requirements, arbitrary enforcement and rising regulatory exposure.
Consolidation budgétaire et croissance
Paris gèle 6 milliards d’euros de dépenses pour contenir un déficit visé à 5% du PIB, tandis que la croissance 2026 est ramenée à 0,9%. Cela accroît le risque de fiscalité, de coupes sectorielles et de demande domestique plus faible.
Escalating Sanctions and Enforcement
The EU’s 20th package adds 120 listings, bans transactions with 20 more Russian banks, targets 46 additional shadow-fleet vessels and activates anti-circumvention measures against Kyrgyzstan, sharply raising compliance, financing and trade-routing risks for foreign firms dealing with Russia.
Regulatory and Tax Policy Fluidity
Recent policy shifts, including levy increases, targeted consumer support and evolving industrial transition measures, show a more interventionist operating environment. Businesses face faster-moving regulatory and fiscal changes affecting energy contracts, compliance costs, investment appraisals and sector-specific profitability.
Large-Scale Infrastructure Financing Drive
South Africa is mobilising substantial capital for logistics modernisation, including a nearly R2 trillion rail master plan and a 5.86 billion rand French loan for Transnet. For investors, this expands project pipelines, supplier opportunities and corridor upgrades, while exposing execution and governance risks.
China Derisking Faces Retaliation
U.S. firms reducing China exposure face growing counterpressure as Beijing adopts rules punishing supply-chain shifts and compliance with U.S. sanctions. This complicates derisking in pharmaceuticals, critical minerals and industrial inputs, raising legal, operational and market-access risk for multinationals.
Energy Transition Opens Infrastructure Demand
Jakarta is promoting a 100 GW solar buildout requiring an estimated $100 billion of investment, alongside transmission and subsea cable upgrades. For foreign investors, this creates opportunities in power, storage, grid equipment and project finance despite execution uncertainty.