Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 24, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine is entering a "decisive phase", with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Donald Trump's return to power in the United States has raised concerns about the future of democracy and the impact of his policies on the global economy. Russia has accused the US of using Taiwan to stir up a crisis in Asia, while China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam.

The War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has entered a decisive phase, with Vladimir Putin's launch of a new ballistic missile showing that the threat of global conflict is "serious and real", according to Poland's prime minister. Putin has escalated the conflict by using a new ballistic missile with a range of "several thousand kilometres" against the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. Putin has threatened to strike Western countries that provide military aid to Ukraine, including the UK and the US. Putin has also revised Russia's nuclear doctrine, declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. Russian units fighting in Ukraine, which were previously considered "elite", are now becoming "increasingly obsolete" as a result of Russia's strategy of throwing waves of troops into battle, turning the frontline into a "meat grinder".

North Korea's Oil Imports from Russia

Satellite images show that North Korea has allegedly imported over a million barrels of oil from Russia this year, flouting United Nations sanctions. The research suggests that North Korean oil tankers have visited Russia's Vostochny port over 40 times since March, in defiance of international restrictions. These findings are supported by satellite images, Automatic Identification System data, and maritime patrol imagery. The United Nations Security Council caps North Korea's annual refined petroleum imports at 500,000 barrels under sanctions imposed due to its nuclear weapons and missile programmes. However, Pyongyang has continued to exceed this quota through illicit channels, as documented by multiple international watchdogs. Attempts to curb North Korea's activities include a joint task force launched by the US and South Korea earlier this year, aimed at preventing the nation from acquiring illicit oil. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives has been questioned, particularly as UN resolutions have caused divisions among key members.

Russia's Cyber Attacks on the UK and NATO Members

Russia is prepared to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other NATO members as it seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. Russia won't think twice about targeting British businesses in pursuit of its malign goals, and it is happy to exploit any gap in cyber or physical defences. The threat is real, and Russia is exceptionally aggressive and reckless in the cyber realm. There are gangs of "unofficial hacktivists" and mercenaries not directly under the Kremlin's control, but who are allowed to act with impunity so long as they're not working against Putin's interests. The Cabinet Office minister is expected to set out details of how the UK will seek to boost its protections against emerging cyber threats, as well as how the country is stepping up work with NATO allies. He and senior national security officials will also meet business leaders next week to discuss how they can protect themselves.

China's Dystopian Tech Influence in Vietnam

China's dystopian tech influence is growing in Vietnam, with Hanoi's policies regarding social media increasingly following Beijing's lead. Vietnam has positioned itself in recent years as an attractive destination for big tech companies looking to move away from China. However, Hanoi's new digital regulations risk threatening business at an especially precarious time. The country was seen as a major winner from former US president Donald Trump's trade war with China in his first term. However, success during Trump 2.0 is far from certain: The president-elect has threatened much wider tariffs of up to 60 percent on goods from China and 20 percent from everywhere else. That could deal a devastating blow to Vietnam's growth, and it could find itself caught in the crosshairs of greater scrutiny on goods originating from China that pass through its borders. The tariffs could cut Vietnam's economic growth by up to 4 percentage points, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp economists have warned, back to levels at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Themes around the World:

Reliance on Remittances Over Exports

Pakistan’s economy is increasingly sustained by remittances and debt rather than exports. The export-to-GDP ratio dropped to 10.4% in 2024, widening vulnerabilities and highlighting the urgent need for export-led reforms, infrastructure upgrades, and improved trade agreements.

Resilience Amid US Tariff Pressures

Despite punitive US tariffs in 2024-2025, Brazil achieved record exports of US$348.7 billion in 2025. Diversification toward China, India, and other markets offset losses, but ongoing negotiations with the US and the risk of renewed trade tensions remain critical for exporters and multinationals.

Regulatory and Governance Reforms

Ongoing reforms aimed at improving transparency and reducing corruption impact the business environment. While reforms can enhance investor confidence, inconsistent implementation creates uncertainty affecting investment strategies and operational planning.

Credit Guarantees and Investment Incentives

Taiwan’s government will provide at least $250 billion in credit guarantees to support outbound investment, facilitating large-scale expansion of Taiwanese firms abroad. This enhances financial flexibility but increases exposure to overseas market and regulatory risks.

EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement Tensions

France’s opposition to the EU-Mercosur trade deal has triggered mass farmer protests and political divisions. The agreement, set to be signed despite French resistance, could flood markets with cheaper imports, threatening French agriculture and food sovereignty.

Domestic Infrastructure and Talent Pressures

Relocation of manufacturing and increased overseas investment may strain Taiwan’s domestic infrastructure and talent pool, potentially impacting innovation capacity and competitiveness at home, while intensifying the need for workforce development and policy adaptation.

Supply Chain Resilience Initiatives

Japan is actively promoting supply chain resilience through diversification and reshoring efforts, especially in critical industries like semiconductors and automotive parts. This shift aims to reduce dependency on China and Southeast Asia, impacting global supply networks and investment flows into Japan's manufacturing sector.

Infrastructure Investment and Public Finance

Vietnam is launching a new wave of infrastructure projects, targeting $5.5 billion in foreign loans for 2026 and up to $38 billion by 2030. While these investments aim to support growth and connectivity, persistent disbursement delays, land clearance issues, and public debt management remain key operational risks.

Tax Threshold Freeze Hits Incomes

The UK government's extension of the income tax threshold freeze until 2031 will push 4.2 million more people into higher tax brackets, reducing real post-tax income for middle-income earners by over £500 annually, impacting consumer demand and business margins.

Escalating Human Rights Crisis and Crackdown

Iran’s security forces have responded to protests with lethal force, causing mass casualties and widespread arrests. The government’s actions have drawn international condemnation, increasing reputational and compliance risks for foreign investors and partners.

Trade Relations and Agreements

Thailand's active participation in regional trade agreements like RCEP and CPTPP enhances market access and trade diversification. These agreements influence tariff structures, investment protections, and cross-border trade facilitation, shaping international business strategies and supply chain configurations.

Labor Market Reforms and Automation

Sweeping labor reforms will extend protections to up to 8.6 million freelancers and platform workers, shifting the burden of proof to employers. While enhancing worker rights, these changes may increase costs and accelerate automation, impacting employment dynamics and operational strategies.

Heightened Geopolitical and Maritime Risks

US-led enforcement actions, such as the seizure of Russian tankers, and retaliatory Russian responses are escalating maritime security risks. These developments threaten shipping insurance, increase costs, and expose supply chains to new vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Tensions and Sanctions Risks

Escalating geopolitical tensions, such as Iran’s designation of the Royal Canadian Navy as a terrorist organization, increase risks for Canadian international operations. Sanctions, diplomatic disputes, and retaliatory measures can disrupt supply chains, trade flows, and investment strategies in sensitive markets.

US-China Trade Relations

Ongoing tensions and negotiations between the US and China continue to shape global trade policies. Tariffs, export controls, and technology restrictions impact supply chains and investment decisions, compelling businesses to reassess risk exposure and diversify sourcing strategies to mitigate geopolitical uncertainties.

Political Instability And Social Unrest

Large-scale protests over economic hardship, currency devaluation, and inflation have erupted nationwide. The government’s response includes leadership changes and security crackdowns, raising risks of further instability, policy unpredictability, and operational challenges for international businesses.

Sweeping Tariffs Disrupt Global Trade

The United States implemented a 10% global tariff and reciprocal duties up to 50%, triggering extreme market volatility, retaliatory measures, and a major shift in trade patterns. These tariffs have increased costs, complicated supply chains, and forced businesses to reassess sourcing and investment strategies.

Data Quality and Policy Uncertainty

Conflicting labor market data and survey reliability issues complicate economic policymaking and business planning. Discrepancies in unemployment and participation rates raise concerns about transparency and the accuracy of official statistics, increasing operational uncertainty for international investors.

US-EU Trade Frictions and Regulatory Clashes

The Turnberry Agreement set new tariff and investment terms, but implementation faces delays, digital regulation disputes, and Green Deal conflicts. Uncertainty over quotas, standards, and retaliatory measures complicates transatlantic business operations.

Aggressive Land Reclamation and Regulatory Risk

The government’s plan to reclaim 4–5 million hectares from plantation and mining firms heightens regulatory and asset security risks. This campaign impacts palm oil, forestry, and mining, raising concerns about policy stability, compliance costs, and foreign investor confidence.

Energy Security and Diversification Strategy

Turkey’s energy policy emphasizes diversification, with LNG imports from the US and multiple pipeline sources. This reduces vulnerability to Russian supply shocks and positions Turkey as a critical energy transit hub, affecting investment strategies in energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing.

US Tariffs and Secondary Sanctions Expansion

The US has imposed a 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran, escalating secondary sanctions. This policy directly threatens global supply chains, deters investment, and forces international companies to reassess exposure to both Iran and its major trading partners.

Logistics, Ports, and Infrastructure Strain

Chronic underinvestment and operational challenges in logistics, ports, and transport infrastructure continue to disrupt supply chains. Flight delays, port congestion, and rail bottlenecks undermine export competitiveness and increase costs for international businesses operating in or sourcing from South Africa.

Political Stability and Governance

Domestic political dynamics and governance practices influence Russia's business climate. Political stability affects investor confidence, while governance issues such as corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies increase operational risks.

Automotive Industry Evolution

The automotive sector faces disruption from electrification, emission regulations, and shifting consumer preferences. This transformation impacts supply chains, investment in R&D, and international partnerships, influencing Germany's export profile and industrial base.

Escalating US-China Trade Rivalry

The US-China economic relationship remains the most consequential global business risk, with ongoing tariffs, selective decoupling, and technology export controls. These measures disrupt supply chains, accelerate China’s tech self-sufficiency, and force multinationals to reassess market and sourcing strategies.

Collapse of Russian Gas Exports to Europe

Russian pipeline gas sales to Europe plunged 44% in 2025, reaching historic lows as the EU phases out imports by 2027. Russia’s pivot to China cannot fully offset lost revenue, eroding its leverage and reshaping European energy security.

Regional Economic Shift and Infrastructure

Economic momentum is shifting from major cities to regional centers, driven by remote work, industrial transition, and infrastructure investment. This trend offers new opportunities for supply chains, real estate, and industry, but depends on continued improvements in connectivity and local ecosystems.

Energy Sector Developments

Recent discoveries and developments in natural gas fields bolster Israel's energy independence and export potential. This shift impacts regional energy markets and creates new avenues for international trade and energy-related investments.

Deepening Turkey–UK and EU Trade Relations

Turkey’s trade with the UK hit $24 billion, with ambitions for $40 billion. EU trade reached $233 billion. Ongoing negotiations to expand free trade agreements into services and investment are set to further integrate Turkey into European supply chains.

Political Instability and Realignment

The UK faces heightened political turbulence, with Labour’s leadership under pressure and rising influence from Reform UK and the Conservatives. This instability could impact trade, regulatory certainty, and investor confidence, especially ahead of pivotal local elections in May 2026.

Mega-Projects and Infrastructure Investment

Saudi Arabia is reallocating capital from delayed real estate projects to logistics, tourism, and infrastructure, including giga-projects like NEOM and the Red Sea. These initiatives are central to supply chain strategies and offer significant opportunities for foreign contractors, technology firms, and financiers.

France’s Opposition to EU-Mercosur Deal

France’s rejection of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, driven by agricultural sector protests and concerns over unfair competition, highlights deep domestic resistance to further market opening. This stance risks isolating France within the EU and complicates supply chain diversification for international businesses.

Agribusiness Drives Export Growth

Agribusiness accounted for 22% of Brazil’s exports in 2025, with coffee, soy, corn, and meat leading. The sector grew 7.1%, but faces volatility from global commodity prices, sanitary barriers, and sustainability demands, especially in EU and Asian markets.

Major US-Indonesia Trade Agreement

Indonesia is finalizing a trade deal with the United States, expected to reduce tariffs from 32% to 19%. This agreement will enhance market access, boost exports, and reshape bilateral trade dynamics, offering significant opportunities for international investors.

Volatile Raw Materials Impact Logistics

Rapid shifts in metal prices and unpredictable demand have made logistics a critical business function for Swedish mining and manufacturing. Companies are adapting supply chain strategies to manage risk and maintain operational resilience in a volatile market.