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Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 22, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has caused uncertainty in Europe and China, with European officials expressing concern about the potential impact on the war in Ukraine and relations with China. In Ukraine, the injury of a North Korean general and the use of an intercontinental missile by Russia have raised tensions, while North Korea and Russia have strengthened their relationship with a tourism drive and missile exchange. Meanwhile, Türkiye's comms chief has called for global cooperation on energy geopolitics, and Vietnam's new digital regulations have raised concerns about the country's business environment.

Donald Trump's Election and its Impact on Europe and China

The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has caused uncertainty in Europe and China. European officials have expressed concern about the potential impact on the war in Ukraine and relations with China. Trump has repeatedly stated that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in one day, which has prompted fears that he will push for concessions that favour Russian President Vladimir Putin. European leaders are divided on how to respond to the situation, with some criticising German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for calling Putin to negotiate and others suggesting that Europe should move closer to China. However, European officials have stated that they do not want to be dragged into the foreign policy towards China that the new American administration will be engaged in.

Ukraine

In Ukraine, the injury of a North Korean general and the use of an intercontinental missile by Russia have raised tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The North Korean general, Col Gen Kim Yong Bok, was injured in a Ukrainian strike in Russia's Kursk region, marking the first casualty of a senior North Korean military officer in the escalating conflict. The attack may have targeted a command post used by Russian and North Korean forces, and North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine have been declared fair game and targets by the Ukrainian military. The use of an intercontinental missile by Russia has raised concerns about the potential for a global war, with Poland warning that Russia may be trying to send a message to Ukraine's Western backers.

North Korea and Russia's Strengthened Relationship

North Korea and Russia have strengthened their relationship with a tourism drive and missile exchange. High-level talks in Pyongyang have resulted in an agreement to increase the number of charter flights between the two countries to promote tourism. Additionally, South Korea has stated that Russia supplied air defence missiles to North Korea in exchange for its troops, with North Korea potentially receiving between $320 million to $1.3 billion annually from Russia for sending its troops to Ukraine. This exchange of troops and missiles has raised concerns about the potential impact on the war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical situation in the region.

Türkiye's Call for Global Cooperation on Energy Geopolitics

Türkiye's comms chief has called for global cooperation on energy geopolitics, highlighting the pivotal role of energy in global geopolitics and the need for international collaboration to tackle growing challenges. The communications director has emphasised the importance of energy in the struggle for global power and the need to address geopolitical crises, regional conflicts, climate change-induced natural disasters, and supply chain disruptions. He has stressed that energy should serve as a tool for regional and global cooperation, not conflict. This call for global cooperation has implications for businesses and investors in the energy sector, as well as those operating in regions affected by geopolitical tensions and energy-related challenges.

Vietnam's New Digital Regulations and their Impact on Business

Vietnam's new digital regulations, which require companies to verify the identities of users and share this information with authorities, have raised concerns about the country's business environment. The regulations echo a cyber identification scheme unveiled by Beijing earlier this year, which was met with international backlash over fears of government overreach, further surveillance, and the erosion of free speech. The regulations come at a precarious time for Vietnam's economy, as the country was seen as a major winner from former US president Donald Trump's trade war with China in his first term. However, success during Trump 2.0 is far from certain, as the president-elect has threatened much wider tariffs on goods from China and elsewhere. The tariffs could cut Vietnam's economic growth by up to 4 percentage points, dealing a devastating blow to the country's growth and potentially threatening business at an especially precarious time.


Further Reading:

5 things to know for Nov. 21: Gaetz report, Ukraine, Hostages, Google, Social media ban - CNN

China’s dystopian tech influence grows in Vietnam - 台北時報

North Korea and Russia expand relationship with tourism drive - The Independent

North Korean General country’s first high ranking military official injured in Ukraine, says report - The Independent

Scandinavian countries and Finland put their population on alert for a possible war with Russia - Voz Media

South Korea says Russia supplied air defense missiles to North Korea in return for its troops - Toronto Star

Trump's return may force Europe's hand on China and Ukraine - NBC News

Türkiye's comms chief urges global cooperation on energy geopolitics | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin firing new ballistic missile makes threat of global war real, Poland warns - The Independent

Themes around the World:

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Regional connectivity corridor expansion

Thailand signaled plans to complete remaining land and sea transport links with Malaysia, potentially accelerating flows north toward China and south toward Singapore and Indonesia. Expanded multimodal connectivity would improve route optionality, trade volumes, and regional supply-chain integration.

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Political interference investment concerns

Opposition criticism and outside analysis suggest project timing and siting may reflect political calendars rather than pure market logic. For international businesses, this raises uncertainty over incentive durability, permitting consistency, capital allocation discipline, and long-term competitiveness of state-backed industrial projects.

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Court ruling tests policy

Thailand’s Constitutional Court review of the THB400 billion decree creates near-term policy uncertainty for investors. A full endorsement would accelerate energy-transition spending, while partial or total rejection could delay projects, complicate budgeting and intensify political pressure on the government.

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Shipping normalization losing momentum

Recent reopening momentum has weakened: traffic reached 78 vessels on one day, then slowed after new attacks, with analysts saying normalization lost pace. Israeli traders and investors therefore face continued uncertainty over transit timing, inventory buffers, and shipping availability.

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Southwest chip cluster buildout

The government is developing Honam and Gwangju as a second semiconductor production base beyond Seoul, with four memory fabs and packaging investment in Chungcheong, creating new regional logistics, construction, and supplier demand but execution complexity.

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US firms oppose Brazil duties

Brazil’s diplomacy has mobilized statements from 43 U.S. companies and associations opposing the tariffs, while firms including Coca-Cola, Tesla, Nestlé, eBay and Siemens warn of higher consumer costs and supply constraints, signaling strong bilateral corporate interdependence.

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Inversión enfrenta freno precautorio

La principal amenaza señalada por analistas no es una ruptura inmediata, sino la incertidumbre prolongada. Banamex indicó que la formación bruta de capital fijo cayó 6.3% anual en 2025, reflejando cautela empresarial en manufactura, comercio transfronterizo y proyectos de expansión.

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Air-defense procurement reshapes spending

Large new commitments for drones, anti-ballistic missiles and air-defense systems—including a €3.9 billion EU drone tranche and a German contract for hundreds of Patriot missiles—are redirecting public spending and procurement priorities, creating opportunities for defense, electronics, radar and maintenance supply chains.

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Investment delays become likely

Business groups and officials warn that recurring annual reviews, uncertain tariff treatment, and unresolved rules of origin will delay capital-intensive decisions. Companies in autos, agriculture, energy, and manufacturing may postpone expansion until there is clearer visibility on tariffs, protocols, and future North American trade architecture.

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Strategic diversification pressures rising

Governments and firms are accelerating de-risking from China-centered supply chains. EU discussions now include diversification mechanisms to broaden supplier bases in sensitive sectors, reflecting concern over concentrated dependence in critical minerals, semiconductors and advanced industrial inputs.

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Industrial parks face leasing sensitivity

Because the US absorbed $86.5 billion of Vietnamese exports in the first half and generated a $75.3 billion surplus for Vietnam, tariff uncertainty is expected to affect industrial-park leasing demand. Export-oriented manufacturers may delay expansion, affecting real estate, logistics, and supplier investment decisions.

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International financial center legislation

Parliament and the government are fast-tracking a law to create Indonesia’s International Financial Center, with targeted incentives on immigration, labor, residency and licensing. If enacted, it could materially improve capital access, dispute resolution and investor structuring options for foreign firms.

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Semiconductor Export Dependence Deepens

South Korea’s business outlook is increasingly tied to chips, which now represent about 44% of exports after semiconductor shipments doubled. Record trade surpluses and strong growth support investment, but concentration raises vulnerability for trade, suppliers, financing conditions, and cross-sector demand.

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AI Demand Drives Investment Surge

Record TSMC profit and stronger revenue guidance reflect exceptionally robust AI and high-performance computing demand. The company lifted 2026 capital spending to US$60-64 billion, signaling sustained upstream equipment orders, packaging demand, and tighter competition for advanced-node and compute-related capacity.

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US-China Retaliation Cycle Persists

Recent US-China tit-for-tat measures show the bilateral truce remains fragile. China imposed export controls on two US rare earth firms and barred 46 American companies from government procurement after the Pentagon added over 60 Chinese firms to a military-linked list, heightening sanctions and counterparty risk.

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Fragile macroeconomic stabilization

Recent reporting depicts IMF-backed stabilization as fragile, with weak growth, stagnant investment and persistent debt dependence. Commentary cited inflation of 78% over four years, poverty near 29-30%, and low investment-to-GDP, conditions that constrain consumer demand, financing confidence and long-term capital deployment.

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Additional Forced-Labor Tariff Threat

Brazil may also be hit by a separate 12.5% U.S. tariff linked to a broader forced-labor investigation due around July 24. If applied, the combined burden could reach 37.5%, sharply worsening competitiveness for affected Brazilian exporters.

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Non-Oil Partnership Diversification

Recent Saudi bilateral deals emphasize sectors beyond crude, including mining, critical minerals, health, AI, transport, aviation, tourism, and education. This broadening of commercial engagement signals a more diversified opportunity set for foreign firms, especially those aligned with Vision 2030 priorities.

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City competitiveness policy in focus

Debate over bank taxation and financial regulation is intensifying as policymakers stress fiscal credibility while considering sector reforms. Proposals around ring-fencing, capital rules and possible higher bank levies affect London’s competitiveness, financial-sector investment decisions and broader access to UK capital markets.

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AI and digital infrastructure expand

New international cooperation frameworks on AI, data infrastructure, cybersecurity, and trusted digital systems indicate growing commercial opportunities for Japanese firms in multilingual models, industrial AI, and data-center ecosystems, while increasing the strategic importance of compute, chips, and regulatory alignment.

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Trade Deficit Politics Prevail

U.S. trade policy is being explicitly driven by efforts to reduce deficits with Mexico and Canada, despite deeply integrated value chains. That political focus suggests further interventions favoring reshoring, with potential consequences for cross-border production models, cost efficiency, and regional sourcing.

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US-China tariff truce remains fragile

New U.S. Section 301 probes on forced labor and excess capacity are unlikely to stop a planned September Xi-Trump meeting, but they keep tariff risk elevated. China’s effective U.S. tariff rate remains just above 20%, sustaining uncertainty for bilateral trade planning.

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Saudi-China Economic Ties Deepen

Saudi Arabia and China pledged to expand economic and investment cooperation as bilateral trade rose from $42 billion in 2016 to $107.5 billion in 2024. The relationship strengthens demand for Saudi hydrocarbons while widening opportunities in machinery and industrial imports.

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LNG shipping restrictions contested

Greece blocked EU approval of new sanctions partly over proposed curbs on transporting Russian LNG to third countries, citing major commercial exposure through Dynagas. The dispute highlights continuing fragility in LNG logistics, chartering availability and sanctions-related maritime risk.

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Shrinking US trade surplus

India’s goods trade surplus with the US has narrowed sharply as imports rose faster than exports. Exports reached about USD 87.3 billion, while imports climbed to roughly USD 52.9 billion, driven by energy, machinery, metals and aircraft purchases, reshaping sector opportunities.

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Kalıcı enflasyon maliyet baskısı

Haziran TÜFE aylık %0,99, yıllık %32,11 açıklanırken yıl sonu beklentisi %29,14 seviyesinde. Ücret, kira ve girdi fiyatlarının yüksek seyri; fiyatlama, sözleşme yönetimi, işletme sermayesi ve yerel tedarik maliyetleri üzerinde baskıyı sürdürüyor.

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USMCA Renewal Uncertainty Deepens

Washington declined to renew USMCA in its current form, triggering annual reviews until 2036. With trilateral trade having risen from $1.07 trillion in 2020 to $1.63 trillion in 2024, manufacturers face prolonged uncertainty over tariffs, market access and cross-border investment planning.

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Sectoral US tariffs persist

Canada continues facing US tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos, and 10% on lumber in reported coverage, pressuring exporters, reducing margins, and forcing firms to reassess pricing, inventory buffers, and cross-border production footprints.

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Overland China export corridor

Thailand is in talks with Malaysia and China’s customs authorities on land and rail routes for durian exports to China. A successful corridor would cut logistics costs, broaden access to smaller Chinese cities, and reinforce Thailand’s regional agri-logistics role.

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Nuclear transit law raises risk

Finland’s June legislation ending its near-40-year nuclear ban allows import, transit and storage of nuclear weapons from July 1. The shift heightens geopolitical risk, insurance costs and contingency planning requirements for firms operating near critical infrastructure or cross-border logistics routes.

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Malaysia border gateway upgraded

Thailand opened the new Sadao checkpoint linked to Malaysia’s Bukit Kayu Hitam crossing, replacing the old route. Expanded lanes, modern inspection systems and 05:00-23:00 operations should reduce delays, improve customs throughput and strengthen bilateral freight, tourism and cross-border logistics.

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Foreign Chip Investors Increase Taiwan

Officials cited further commitments from Nvidia, AMD, and Micron, including Micron’s roughly US$1.8 billion acquisition for advanced memory manufacturing. Continued inbound investment strengthens Taiwan’s semiconductor and AI ecosystem, supporting suppliers, talent demand, and local expansion opportunities across the technology value chain.

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Export-led growth stays strong

Second-quarter GDP growth reached 8.39% and first-half growth 8.18%, supported by manufacturing and construction. Exports rose 21% to US$266.52 billion while foreign investment jumped 61% to US$34.65 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s appeal as a supply-chain diversification and production base.

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Semiconductor materials vulnerability grows

Coverage of possible disruptions involving Japanese photoresists, alongside wider export controls, points to rising fragility in chip-material supply chains. Even unconfirmed restrictions can trigger precautionary sourcing shifts, inventory building, and higher costs for semiconductor, electronics, and advanced manufacturing operations.

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Digital payments become trade flashpoint

The U.S. Section 301 case targets Brazil’s Pix system and related digital-commerce regulation, alleging unfair advantages for domestic infrastructure. The dispute raises regulatory risk for payment providers, fintech investors, platform operators, and any business dependent on cross-border digital transactions.

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Iran seeks transit control fees

Iran has pushed ships toward routes coordinated with Tehran and, according to reports, sought passage fees of up to $2 million per vessel. Any institutionalized tolling or route control would raise maritime compliance burdens and uncertainty for Gulf-bound cargoes.