Power market reform execution risk

Government is unbundling Eskom and establishing an independent transmission system operator ahead of wholesale market rollout from April 2026, but timelines, market rules, wheeling and tariff design remain contested. Delays raise outage and cost risks for industry and investors.

Weak growth, high household debt

Thailand’s growth outlook remains subdued (around 1.6–2% in 2026; ~2% projected by officials), constrained by tight credit and household debt near 86.8% of GDP (higher including informal debt). This depresses domestic demand, raises NPL risk, and limits pricing power.

China engagement versus U.S. backlash

Canada’s limited tariff adjustments with China (e.g., canola oil and EVs) are triggering U.S. political retaliation threats, including extreme tariff proposals. Firms exposed to China-linked supply chains face higher geopolitical friction, compliance scrutiny and potential forced rebalancing toward allied markets.

Energy grid strikes, blackout risk

Russia’s intensified strikes on power plants, pipelines and cables have produced recurring outages and higher industrial downtime. The NBU estimates a 6% electricity deficit in 2026, shaving ~0.4pp off growth and raising operating costs, logistics disruption and force-majeure risk.

Baht strength and rate cuts

The baht strengthened below 31/USD amid gold and capital inflows; reserves reached about US$312bn. Markets expect the Bank of Thailand to cut rates toward 1.0%–1.25% as 2026 growth slows (~1.5%–2.5%). FX volatility affects margins, hedging, and tourism receipts.

Electricity reform and tariff shock

Eskom restructuring remains contested, but Ramaphosa reaffirmed an independent transmission entity and 2026 transmission tenders. Meanwhile Nersa-approved hikes of ~8.8% in 2026/27 and 2027/28 raise input costs, affecting energy-intensive industry, pricing and investment.

IMF program conditionality pressure

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews drive tax hikes, governance reforms and energy-sector changes, with missed FBR targets (≈Rs329–372bn shortfall). Compliance affects tranche releases (~$1.2bn), investor confidence, and the stability of import payments and profit repatriation.

New fees, taxes, and compliance load

Egypt continues updating VAT and tax administration and adding port/terminal charges (e.g., inspection fees). Combined with evolving customs requirements such as mandatory Advance Cargo Information for air freight, compliance costs and penalties risks rise for importers and logistics providers.

Energy transition bottlenecks and costs

UK decarbonisation continues, but grid constraints and high power costs remain a competitiveness issue for energy‑intensive industry. Delays in connections and network upgrades can slow plant expansions and electrification projects, increasing capex timelines and pushing firms to reassess UK footprint versus EU/US options.

War-driven Black Sea shipping risk

Drone strikes, mines, and GNSS spoofing in the Black Sea are raising war-risk premiums and operational constraints, particularly near Novorossiysk and key export terminals. Shipowners may avoid calls, tighten clauses, and price in delays, affecting regional supply chains and commodity flows.

Tech exports: recovery with churn

Tech remains a core export engine (about 57% of exports; 17% of GDP), with 2025 funding rising to roughly $15.6bn. Yet job seekers doubled to 16,300 and talent outflows persist, affecting hiring, delivery risk, and investment underwriting for R&D-heavy operations.

War-driven maritime and navigation hazards

The Black Sea operating environment remains high-risk: drone/mine threats, port strikes, and pervasive GNSS spoofing disrupt routing and safety. Attacks on tankers linked to Russian cargoes have expanded beyond the region. Shipping schedules, premiums, and contractual performance risks remain elevated.

Labor shortages and mobility constraints

Reserve duty, reduced availability of non-Israeli workers, and security-related absenteeism strain construction, services, and some industrial operations. Companies should expect wage pressure, longer project timelines, and greater need for automation, subcontracting, and cross-training to maintain continuity.

Gümrük rejimi değişimi ve e-ticaret

6 Şubat 2026’da 30 avro altı basitleştirilmiş gümrük uygulaması kaldırıldı; tüm gönderilerde detaylı beyan zorunlu. Temu, yerel ithalatçı modeliyle geri döndü ve 580 TL alt limit koydu. De minimis reformu KOBİ ithalatçıları, e-ticaret lojistiği ve maliyet yapısını kalıcı değiştiriyor.

Pemex: deuda, rescate y pagos

Pemex mantiene alta carga financiera: Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio de US$7.000 millones en 2026‑27 y dependencia de apoyo público. Su deuda ronda US$84.500 millones y presiona déficit/soberano, impactando riesgo país, proveedores y pagos en proyectos energéticos.

Labour shortages and mobilisation pressure

Mobilisation and displacement continue to tighten labour markets, raising wage pressure and reducing skilled workforce availability in manufacturing, construction, and logistics. Companies face productivity constraints, higher training costs, and execution risk for reconstruction projects and long-duration contracts.

Sanctions and “blood oil” compliance

Scrutiny is rising over refined fuel derived from spliced Russian crude, with claims Australia was the largest buyer among sanctioning nations in 2025. Potential rule changes could require origin due diligence and contract flexibility, raising procurement costs and enforcement risk across energy inputs.

US–Taiwan chip reindustrialization

Washington is tying tariff relief to onshore capacity, including a reported $250bn Taiwan investment framework to expand US fabrication and supply chains. The policy accelerates localization and friend-shoring, but heightens execution risk, capex needs, and supplier relocation pressure.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

Ciclo de juros e inflação

Com Selic em 15% e inflação em 12 meses perto de 4,44% (abaixo do teto de 4,5%), o mercado precifica início de cortes em março, possivelmente 50 bps. Isso afeta custo de capital, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e valuations.

Gulf-backed mega projects and FDI push

The Ras El Hekma development continues with Abu Dhabi-linked partners, while Egypt targets doubling annual FDI from ~$12bn to $24bn via faster licensing (from ~24 months to under 90 days). Real-estate and infrastructure inflows can stabilize FX and demand.

H-1B tightening and talent costs

New wage-weighted H-1B selection and a $100,000 fee for many new petitions raise labor costs and reduce predictability for global staffing. Multinationals may shift to L-1 transfers, expand offshore delivery centers, and adjust U.S. project timelines and location strategies.

Ports and logistics hub buildout

Egypt is investing to become a regional transit-trade hub via multimodal corridors, dry ports, and major terminal expansions. Damietta’s new terminal targets ~3.3–3.5m TEU capacity with advanced equipment, improving throughput and transshipment competitiveness across the East Med.

State-asset sales and privatization

Government is preparing ~60 state-owned companies for transfer to the Sovereign Fund or stock-market listings, signaling deeper restructuring. This expands M&A and PPP opportunities but requires careful diligence on governance, labor sensitivities, valuation, and regulatory approvals.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Local content and procurement localisation

PIF’s local-content drive exceeds ~US$157bn, with contractor participation reported at ~67% in 2025 and expanding pipelines of platform-listed opportunities. International suppliers face higher localisation, JV, and in-Kingdom value-add requirements (e.g., IKTVA-style terms) to win contracts.

Enerji arzı çeşitlenmesi ve LNG

Türkiye’nin LNG alımları artıyor; uzun vadeli kontratlar ve FSRU kapasitesi genişlemesi gündemde. Bu, enerji yoğun sektörlerde maliyet öngörülebilirliğini artırabilir; ancak gaz fiyatlarına ve jeopolitik risklere duyarlılık sürer. Sanayi yatırımlarında enerji tedarik sözleşmeleri kritikleşiyor.

Rising wages and labor tightness

Regular wages rose 3.09% in 2025 to NT$47,884, with electronics overtime at 27.9 hours—highest in 46 years—reflecting AI-driven demand and labor constraints. Cost inflation and capacity bottlenecks may pressure contract terms, automation capex, and talent retention strategies.

Forestry downturn and lumber dispute

Forestry remains under severe pressure from high US softwood duties, cited around 45% in some cases, alongside domestic harvest constraints. Expect mill rationalization, higher input volatility for construction products, and increased dispute-settlement risk as the US pushes to weaken binational panels.

Energy security via LNG contracting

With gas ~60% of Thailand’s power mix and domestic supply declining, PTT, Egat, and Gulf are locking in 15-year LNG deals (e.g., 1mtpa with Cheniere; up to 0.8mtpa with Engie) to reduce spot-price exposure. This influences industrial power costs and emissions pathways.

District heating investment surge

City utilities are accelerating Wärmenetze expansion and modernization, including low‑temperature networks and large heat pumps. This drives major capex opportunities for foreign EPCs, pipe and insulation suppliers, and control-system vendors, but also heightens exposure to permitting delays and municipal procurement rules.

Carbon policy and possible CBAM

Safeguard Mechanism baselines and the newly released carbon-leakage review open pathways to stronger protection for trade-exposed sectors, including a CBAM-like option. Firms should anticipate higher carbon-cost pass-through, reporting needs and border competitiveness effects for metals and cement.

Monetary policy and inflation persistence

Banxico has paused or slowed rate cuts as inflation remains sticky (around 3.8% early 2026) and pushed its 3% convergence target to 2027. Elevated rates and FX sensitivity affect working capital, project finance costs, and consumer-demand outlooks.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Historic drought and Mexico–U.S. water treaty obligations are becoming operational risks, particularly for water-intensive industries in northern hubs. Potential rationing, higher tariffs, and community pushback can disrupt production, requiring water audits, recycling investment, and site selection adjustments.

Energy security via US LNG pivot

Taiwan plans major US purchases (2025–2029) including $44.4B LNG/crude, lifting US LNG share toward 25% and reducing reliance on Middle East routes. This reorients energy supply chains, affects power-price risk, and increases the strategic value of resilient terminals and grid investments.

Electrification push alters cost base

Government plans aim for electricity to reach ~60% of final energy consumption by 2030, reducing fossil dependence reportedly costing ~€60bn annually in oil and gas imports. Transition incentives may reshape fleet, heat and process investments, affecting capex timing and energy contracts.