Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 20, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The war in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture, with escalating tensions between Russia and the West over the use of long-range missiles and nuclear threats from Vladimir Putin. The United States and the United Kingdom have authorised Ukraine to use their missiles to strike inside Russia, marking a significant shift in the conflict. Meanwhile, Putin has lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, raising fears of a nuclear escalation. In Somaliland, the opposition has won the election, signalling a potential shift in the region's political landscape. The EU and the UK have extended sanctions on Iran over its support for Russia, while Iran has warned it has not abandoned its right to retaliate against Israel. The G20 summit in Brazil has focused on fighting hunger amid global uncertainty, with the return of Donald Trump as the incoming US President looming large.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict Escalates with Long-Range Missiles and Nuclear Threats

The escalation comes as the war enters its 1,000th day, with millions of Ukrainians displaced and hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers killed or injured. The conflict has also brought significant changes to life in Russia, with many companies leaving the country and the Kremlin facing increased international isolation.

The use of long-range missiles has raised concerns about a potential nuclear escalation, with Putin lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike and warning of a potential response. The United States and its allies have expressed concern about Russia's nuclear doctrine and potential retaliatory actions, which could include sabotage and assassinations in Europe or further arming US adversaries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.

The escalation of the conflict has significant implications for businesses and investors, with increased uncertainty and potential for further economic sanctions on Russia and its allies. Businesses with operations in the region should monitor the situation closely and consider contingency plans in case of further escalation.

Opposition Victory in Somaliland Signals Potential Shift in Regional Politics

In Somaliland, the opposition has won the election, signalling a potential shift in the region's political landscape. The victory of the opposition has raised hopes for a potential dialogue with Somalia, with the opposition leader promising to work towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the two regions.

The election results have significant implications for businesses and investors, with the potential for increased stability and economic growth in the region. Businesses with operations in Somaliland should monitor the situation closely and consider potential opportunities for investment and expansion in the region.

EU and UK Extend Sanctions on Iran Over Support for Russia

The EU and the UK have extended sanctions on Iran over its support for Russia, marking a further deterioration in relations between the two countries. The sanctions are aimed at pressuring Iran to end its support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, with the EU and the UK accusing Iran of providing military assistance to Russia.

The sanctions have significant implications for businesses and investors, with increased uncertainty and potential for further economic sanctions on Iran and its allies. Businesses with operations in the region should monitor the situation closely and consider contingency plans in case of further escalation.

G20 Summit in Brazil Focuses on Fighting Hunger Amid Global Uncertainty

The G20 summit in Brazil has focused on fighting hunger amid global uncertainty, with the return of Donald Trump as the incoming US President looming large. The summit has highlighted the need for concerted action to alleviate hunger, with the G20 leaders committing to work together to address the issue.

The summit has significant implications for businesses and investors, with the potential for increased cooperation and investment in the fight against hunger. Businesses with operations in the region should monitor the situation closely and consider potential opportunities for investment and expansion in the region.